Oklahoma State (6-6) vs. Alabama (6-6)
Dec. 28,
4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
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Talk about two programs going in
opposite directions.
Oklahoma State has a hot young team with offensive explosion, an
aggressive defense, and an interesting coaching staff that appears
to have the program on the verge of big things. On the flip side,
while the Alabama administration and fans don't think the program is
in a rebuilding mode, things aren't exactly going well when you fire
your head coach and several big name coaches have no interest. The
Tide is in a holding pattern until it finds its new head man and
will turn to defensive coordinator Joe Kines to lead the way through
the bowl season.
Getting to a bowl marks the first big step in the Mike Gundy era at
Oklahoma State, while not going to a big, New Year's Day game
represents a mega-disappointment for an Alabama program that won ten
games and the Cotton Bowl last year. Oklahoma State is eighth in the
nation in scoring offense, while Alabama's offense struggled against
even the most average of defenses. Alabama is great against the
pass, Oklahoma State can't stop the pass. Oklahoma State has one of
the nation's best pass rushes, while Alabama can't get to the
quarterback.
|
|
National
Rankings |
|
Oklahoma St |
Alabama |
|
Total Offense |
|
16th 409 ypg |
60th 340.92 ypg |
|
Total Defense |
|
92nd 371.42 ypg |
18th 287.58 ypg |
|
Scoring Offense |
|
8th 35.33 ppg |
73rd 22.25 ppg |
|
Scoring Defense |
|
79th 25.17 ppg |
29th 18 ppg |
|
Run Offense |
|
8th 208.08 ypg |
75th 124.33 ypg |
|
Run Defense |
|
83rd 149.92 ypg |
37th 117.75 ypg |
|
Pass Offense |
|
57th 200.92 ypg |
45th 216.58 ypg |
|
Pass Defense |
|
87th 221.5 ypg |
16th 169.83 ypg |
|
Turnover Margin |
|
41st 0.33 |
16th 0.67 |
|
Oklahoma State
Missouri St
W 52-10
at Ark St
W 35-7
Fla Atlantic
W 48-8
at Houston L 34-25
at Kans St L 31-27
at Kansas W 42-32
Tex A&M L 34-33 OT
Nebraska W 41-29
at Texas L 36-10
Baylor
W 66-24
at Tex Tech L 30-24
Oklahoma L 27-21 |
Alabama
Hawaii
W 25-17
Vanderbilt
W 13-10
UL Monroe
W 41-7
at Ark. L 24-23 2OT
at Florida L 28-13
Duke
W 30-14
Ole Miss
26-23 OT
at Tenn. L 16-13
FIU
W 38-3
Miss State
L 26-14
at LSU L 28-14
Auburn L 22-15 |
|
Position
Ratings
relative to each
other |
|
OSU |
5
highest
1 lowest |
A |
|
4 |
Quarterbacks |
3.5 |
|
4.5 |
RBs |
3.5 |
|
4.5 |
Receivers |
4 |
|
3.5 |
O
Line |
3.5 |
|
3.5 |
D
Line |
3 |
|
3 |
Linebackers |
4 |
|
3 |
Secondary |
4 |
|
4 |
Spec
Teams |
3 |
|
4 |
Coaching |
2.5 |
|
But while the
two teams might be good at different things, one thing they have in
common is a losing streak with the Cowboys losing two straight and
the Tide coming in on a three-game slide.
Alabama was mediocre after a 3-0 start losing six of its final nine
games while bottoming out in a home gag to Mississippi State and
punctuated by a fifth straight loss to Auburn. The Tide needed
overtime to beat a bad Ole Miss team, along with wins over FIU and
Duke teams that went winless, to get to six wins and a bowl game
after losing to all the good teams on the slate.
Oklahoma State had its breathtaking moments throughout the year with
a 42-point second half explosion to beat Kansas, a big offensive day
to beat Nebraska, and coming within a fingertip of getting a
touchdown catch that would've beaten Oklahoma. This is a fun team on
both sides of the ball, but when things are working well, the ground
game is rumbling.
While the win over the Huskers was nice, the Cowboys need more
brand-name wins. With a lousy non-conference schedule an annual
ritual, if they're not beating the big boys in the South like
Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M and Texas Tech (going 0-4 against them
this year), they're not going to get much in the way of national
attention.
This might be a battle of also-rans, but these are two teams that
likely have much bigger things ahead. It's possible this will be the
last time you'll see these two in an early bowl game for a while.
Players to watch: Oklahoma State's Bobby Reid was the
high-profile quarterback recruit the program has tried to build
things around, but after injuries gave him problems earlier in his
career, and inconsistency, along with a shoulder problem, was an
issue throughout this season, it was Zac Robinson getting the
key snaps late in the Oklahoma game. So angry was Reid that he
wasn't in that there were rumors (that turned out to be unfounded)
he was going to transfer. There's no question going into the bowl
game; Reid is the number one guy and should go coast-to-coast. With
a great combination of mobility and raw passing skills, he's a dual
threat who needs to be accounted for every time he roams out of the
pocket. Against Alabama, he has to establish himself as the
unquestioned starter going into 2007, but if he has a game like he
had against Texas Tech, completing 11 of 31 passes, Robinson might
be in the mix.
Whoever's under center will not just have All-Big 12 WR Adarius
Bowman to throw to against the Tide, he'll have him next year as
the 6-4, 220-pound junior has decided to return for his senior year.
He's a first day pro prospect with game-breaking speed and too much
size for most defensive backs to handle. A 13-catch, 300-yard, four
touchdown day against Kansas highlighted his season, but he was
consistently good throughout the year.
For Alabama to win, it needs to get its running game going and has
to hope for Ken Darby to be Ken Darby again. The senior has
been one of the year's biggest disappointment with 820 yards, only
two 100-yard rushing days, and no rushing touchdowns. Part of the
problem was a more pass-happy offense, part of the problem was an
average year from the offensive line, and part of the problem was
Darby, who didn't show off much of the same pop he had in previous
years. If he has any NFL dreams, he needs to come through with a big
performance in the final showcase.
The more attention paid to the passing game was justified with a
receiver like junior D.J. Hall, who turned into one of the
most reliable playmakers in the SEC. Despite being the target of
every opposing team's defensive gameplan, he cranked out seven
100-yard games over an eight-game stretch with the one down moment
coming against FIU, when the offense ran the ball. While he's a
great deep threat with great moves, he's not a scorer with no
touchdowns over the final five games.
Oklahoma State
will win if...
it gets the game into some sort of
a shootout. Alabama might have a decent passing game, but it's
ill-equipped to get into a firefight. Oklahoma State gives up points
and yards, that's a given, while Alabama needs to win with its
defense. Bama went over 20 points in six games against Hawaii, UL
Monroe, Arkansas (because the game went into overtime), Duke, Ole
Miss, and FIU, and only hit 30 in three games. Oklahoma State scored
20 ore more against everyone but Texas and averaged 35.33 points per
game. If the Cowboys can get up early, and if the pass rush can come
up with a few key sacks, they should be able to come away with the
win.
Alabama will win if... turnovers aren't a problem. The
Tide is 16th in the nation in turnover margin, but when it did give
the ball away, there were almost always disastrous results. This
isn't the type of offense that can overcome plenty of mistakes, and
it can't afford to go on long drives only to come up empty after a
turnover. Bama's defense has to get into the backfield better than
it had all season long and has to force the OSU quarterbacks to be
off. The Tide run defense should keep OSU from going nuts, and the
secondary is strong enough to not get bombed on for a full four
quarters, so if the offense can keep pace and take advantage of
every opportunity, the program will get its second bowl win in a
row.
What will happen: The Oklahoma State offensive balance will
be too much for the Tide. Bama QB John Parker Wilson will connect on
several big pass plays and Ken Darby will run effectively, but it
won't be enough. Alabama's defensive front won't do enough to
pressure Bobby Reid, while the get-into-the-backfield-at-all-costs
Cowboy defense will do more disruptive harm than normal.
Line: Oklahoma State -2.5 ... CFN Prediction:
Oklahoma State 27 ... Alabama 20
Get
Tickets for the Independence Bowl |
Get more picks for this
game
PetroSun Independence
Bowl Player Profile: Oklahoma State WR Adarius Bowman, team bowl history and more