Texas A&M (9-3) vs. California (9-3)
Dec. 28,
8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
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Call this the Prove It Bowl.
Texas A&M's 9-3 season barely drew more than a national yawn, even
with the impressive 12-7 win over Texas. Maybe if UCLA hadn't beaten
USC the Aggie win in Austin would've gotten more attention, but a
win over California, and the program's first ten win season since
1998, might finally get everyone off head coach Dennis Franchione's
back.
Cal has cranked out plenty of wins in the Jeff Tedford era, and has
made a whole bunch of national noise with its speed and athleticism,
but the biggest win since the upset over USC in 2003 was over an
average Virginia Tech team in the 2003 Insight Bowl. Since then,
three games against USC, the 2004 Holiday Bowl against Texas Tech,
and the season opener this year against Tennessee, were all big
chances for Cal to finally prove that it belongs among the better
programs in America, but it hasn't been able to come through with a
defining win.
|
|
National
Rankings |
|
California |
Texas
A&M |
|
Total Offense |
|
14th 411 ypg |
19th 401.42 ypg |
|
Total Defense |
|
90th 367.67 ypg |
37th 309.83 ypg |
|
Scoring Offense |
|
14th 31.83 ppg |
27th 29.33 ppg |
|
Scoring Defense |
|
43rd 20.08 ppg |
32nd 18.50 ppg |
|
Run Offense |
|
39th 156.25 ypg |
7th 210.50 ypg |
|
Run Defense |
|
45th 122.25 ypg |
46th 123 ypg |
|
Pass Offense |
|
16th 254.75 ypg |
68th 190.92 ypg |
|
Pass Defense |
|
108th 245.42 ypg |
41st
186.83 ypg |
|
Turnover Margin |
|
27th 0.50 |
15th
0.75 |
|
California
at Tenn.
L 35-18
Minnesota
W 42-17
Portland St
W 42-16
Arizona St
W 49-21
at Oreg. St
W 41-13
Oregon
W 45-24
at Wash St
W 21-3
Wash.
W 31-24 OT
UCLA
W 38-24
at Arizona
L 24-20
at USC L 23-9
Stanford
W 26-17 |
Texas A&M
The Citadel W 35-3
UL Lafayette
W 51-7
Army
W 28-24
La Tech
W 45-14
Texas Tech L 31-27
at Kansas
W 21-18
Missouri
W 25-19
at Ok St
W 34-33 OT
at Baylor
W 31-21
Oklahoma L 17-16
Nebraska L 28-27
at Texas W 12-7 |
|
Position
Ratings
relative to each
other |
|
Cal |
5
highest
1 lowest |
A&M |
|
4 |
Quarterbacks |
4 |
|
5 |
RBs |
5 |
|
5 |
Receivers |
3 |
|
4 |
O
Line |
4.5 |
|
3.5 |
D
Line |
3.5 |
|
3.5 |
Linebackers |
4 |
|
4 |
Secondary |
3 |
|
5 |
Spec
Teams |
4 |
|
4.5 |
Coaching |
4 |
|
It's also prove
it time for the Pac 10 in one of its biggest bowl slots after losing
four of the last five with the one win coming when Washington State
pulled off a monster upset in the 2003 win over Texas. The Pac 10 is
always fighting for respect, and it can't afford a loss here.
The Bears started out the season as a sleeper in the national title
race, but those dreams were quickly met with a thud after Tennessee
ran away with a 35-18 win. After reeling off eight straight wins
averaging close to 40 points per outing, and getting back in the
national championship chase, Cal blew it a week before facing USC
when Nate Longshore threw three critical interceptions in a loss to
Arizona. After getting pasted by the Trojans, and almost getting
stunned by an awful Stanford team, Cal is still looking to show
everyone just how good it really is.
Texas A&M is in the midst of a strong year, but it could've been
something truly special with a little bit more luck. The Aggies lost
to Texas Tech 31-27 on a 37-yard touchdown pass in the final
seconds, lost to Oklahoma 17-16 after failing to hold on a late
fourth and one, and lost to Nebraska after giving up a touchdown
drive after getting an apparent game-sealing field goal blocked.
It's not an overstatement to say A&M was three plays away from being
in the Big 12 title game with a shot at the BCS Championship game.
With a strong running game, an adequate defense, and good special
teams, this is a solid A&M team that has the athletes, and the
experience, to stick around with Cal's speed. A win would get
everyone around College Station jacked up for 2007 with most of the
key starters on both sides of the ball returning.
Cal is fast, fast, fast on both sides of the ball with some of the
most explosive skill players in college football and star defensive
playmakers in LB Desmond Bishop and Pac 10 Defensive Player of the
Year CB Daymeion Hughes. But is this a tough enough team to handle
getting punched in the mouth by the tough Aggies?
Easily one of the most entertaining bowls year in and year out, with
seven of the last eight being decided by seven points or fewer (with
the one exception being Cal's 45-31 loss to Texas Tech in 2004),
this should be no different. It'll be a shock if this isn't one of
the most competitive pre-New Year's Day games.
Players to watch: This game will be all about the running
backs, but Cal's DeSean Jackson is the one X factor who could
turn the tide of the game with one big play. While a wisp at around
160 pounds on a six-foot frame, the sophomore is one of the nation's
most electrifying players with 4.3 speed and Reggie Bush-like moves
once he's in the open field. He was the team's top receiver with 54
catches for 979 yards and nine touchdowns, but he only has one
scoring grab over the final six games of the season. He's also among
the most dangerous punt returners in college football.
The Bears don't just use Jackson to hit home runs, they get big-time
pop from its fabulous running back tandem of Marshawn Lynch
and Justin Forsett. Lynch has the size at around 225 pounds
to go along with sub-4.4 speed with a career average of 6.6 yards
per carry. He's a fantastic receiver out of the backfield and is
normally great in the red zone, but he didn't score in the final
three games of the year. Lynch's running mate, Forsett, is a small,
quick back who scored 63 touchdowns as a Texas high school star, but
he didn't get any offers from anyone close by. A&M's negligence is
Cal's gain as Forsett has rushed for 502 yards and three scores this
year, and filled in for a banged up Lynch throughout last year
rushing for 999 yards and six scores. Both will have to sharp with
top fullback and star special teamer Byron Storer out with a
broken arm.
A&M has a tremendous tandem of its own in 274-pound sophomore
bowling ball Jorvorskie Lane and star true freshman Mike
Goodson combining for 1,474 yards. Lane is unstoppable around
the goal line with 19 touchdowns on the year scoring at least once
in every game. While he has workhorse ability, he hasn't had to
carry the entire load with Goodson, a big-time recruit for the
program last year, getting more and more work as the season has gone
on with double-digit carries in five of the final six games and 785
yards on the year. With tremendous speed and nice hands, Goodson is
truly the lighting to Lane's thunder.
Texas A&M
will win if... Lane and the A&M running game controls the
tempo by pounding the ball
and doesn't give up too many big plays. A&M was third in the nation
in time of possession holding the ball for 33:29 per game helped by
converting 51.2% of its third down chances, and the success should
continue as the Aggies have a big advantage on the line. Cal only
faced one nasty running team, Minnesota, and that game got out of
hand early forcing the Gophers to throw. As long as the A&M defense
limits Jackson, Lynch, and the explosive Bears from tearing off
backbreaking plays, it should be able to hang on to the ball as long
as it wants to.
California will win if... it gets all the pieces involved.
The Bears get in trouble when it becomes one-dimensional, and it has
big problems when Longshore gets pressured. The Aggie corners are
nothing special meaning the safeties will have to spend most of
their time worrying about the speed of Jackson, Lavelle Hawkins, and
Robert Jordan on the deep plays while opening everything up for
Lynch and Forsett. Even if the Cal running game is held under wraps,
Lynch should have plenty of room to run when he gets the ball in his
hands on short passes. Cal would have no problem if this turned into
a shootout.
What will happen: Texas A&M struggled all year against the
nastier passing offenses and doesn't have enough of a pass rush to
throw the Bear passing game off, so expect a big day from Longshore.
Cal isn't physical enough to handle the nasty A&M offensive line and
the pounding of the ground game, so expect a big day from Lane. When
in doubt, go with the better running game.
Line: California -5.5 ... CFN Prediction:
Texas
A&M 24 ... California 23
Get
Tickets for the Holdiay Bowl |
Get more picks for this
game
Pacific Life Holiday
Bowl Player Profile: California CB Daymeion Hughes, team bowl history and more