Oregon State (9-4) vs. Missouri (8-4)
Dec. 29th,
2:00 p.m. ET, CBS
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Year in and year out, what bowl comes
through with better and more consistent games than any other?
The Rose? Yeah, it's been pretty good. The Holiday? Close.
For some reason, the Sun never fails to deliver with the
above-average Pac 10 team, a staple of the game since 1990, going
against another good, big-league team (with the exception of 1998
when TCU beat USC) usually played on a weekday afternoon. The
combination has seemed to work with with seven straight thrillers
with plenty of offense and last second heroics. This year's battle,
with a Big 12 team playing for the first time since Texas in 1994,
should be no different.
 |
|
National
Rankings |
|
Oregon State |
Missouri |
|
Total Offense |
|
50th 353.15 ypg |
12th 414.33 ypg |
|
Total Defense |
|
42nd 316.38 ypg |
35th 308.83 ypg |
|
Scoring Offense |
|
44th 26.92 ppg |
25th 29.42 ppg |
|
Scoring Defense |
|
49th 21 ppg |
27th 17.92 ppg |
|
Run Offense |
|
83rd 119.54 ypg |
49th 145.08 ypg |
|
Run Defense |
|
19th 103.08 ypg |
61st 137.33 ypg |
|
Pass Offense |
|
29th 233.62 ypg |
11th 269.25 ypg |
|
Pass Defense |
|
80th 213.31 ypg |
19th 171.50 ypg |
|
Turnover Margin |
|
24th 0.62 |
48th 0.17 |
|
Oregon State
E. Wash.
W 52-17
at Boise St L 42-14
Idaho
W 38-0
California L 41-13
Wash St
L 13-6
at Wash.
W 27-17
at Arizona W 17-10
USC W 33-31
Arizona St
W 44-10
at UCLA
L 25-7
at Stanford W 30-7
Oregon
W 30-28
at Hawaii W 35-32 |
Missouri
Murray State
W 47-7
Ole Miss
W 34-7
at N. Mexico
W 27-17
Ohio
W 31-6
Colorado W 28-13
at Tex Tech W 38-21
at Tex A&M L 25-19
Kansas St
W 41-21
Oklahoma
L 26-10
at Nebraska L 34-20
at Iowa State L 21-16
Kansas
W 42-17 |
|
Position
Ratings
relative to each
other |
|
OSU |
5
highest
1 lowest |
M |
|
4 |
Quarterbacks |
4 |
|
4 |
RBs |
3.5 |
|
4 |
Receivers |
4 |
|
4 |
O
Line |
4.5 |
|
3.5 |
D
Line |
3.5 |
|
4 |
Linebackers |
4 |
|
3.5 |
Secondary |
3 |
|
4.5 |
Spec
Teams |
2.5 |
|
4 |
Coaching |
4 |
|
Oregon State ended the year as one of
the nation's hottest teams with a shot at its second ten-win season
in school history, while Missouri is still looking for respect after
struggling against most of the good teams it played.
The Tigers started off the season as one of the under-the-radar
programs with a 6-0 start highlighted by wins over Colorado and
Texas Tech, got steamrolled over by Texas A&M, and lost four of five
games bottoming out with a 21-16 clunker against Iowa State.
Missouri rode an Independence Bowl win over South Carolina into a
promising off-season; a victory over Oregon State would do the same.
This is hardly an established program under head coach Gary Pinkel,
seemingly on the verge of exploding one way or another over the next
few years. It hasn't quite turned a corner despite being more
competitive, and it's still looking for that one big win that'll get
everyone to pay attention. The more wins over name
teams, the better.
Oregon
State has always had to overcome the second-tier status among Pac
10ers, but this became one of the better teams no one outside Oregon
seemed to notice. Appearing on the road to nowhere after losing
three games in a key early four-game stretch, the Beavers went nuts
winning seven of their last eight only getting dropped by UCLA.
How strange was this Beaver season? There was the highest of highs
knocking off USC in a 33-31 thriller which, at the time, appeared to
end the Trojans' hope for the national title, and there was the
biggest of national embarrassments getting ripped apart by Ian
Johnson and Boise State in a 42-14 nationally televised loss.
OSU has a good balance with RB Yvenson Bernard and WR Sammie
Stroughter two of the Pac 10's better skill players, while the
defense has been just good enough when it's had to be throughout the
second half of the year. However, it's not a strong enough D to shut
down Missouri cold.
When the Tigers are on, everything seems to click with a good mix of
offense and, at times, one of the Big 12's better defenses. The loss
of all-star-to-be Brian Smith signaled a turn midway through the
year for the defense, while the offense went from explosive to too
reliant on QB Chase Daniel. It has the firepower to match OSU shot
for shot and surprise with one of the higher scoring games of the
bowl season.
The Big 12 wants more respect, and Oregon State wants to be noticed.
One of the two will happen.
Players to watch: Is this the same Matt Moore who was
handing out interceptions like they were M&Ms? The former UCLA transfer had an odd first season throwing
19 interceptions and only 11 touchdown passes, and then started off
2005 with six picks in his first seven games. And then a funny thing
happened ... he became nearly perfect. His accuracy improved, he
appeared more comfortable, and he didn't throw an interception over
the final six games. In other words, the light turned on.
Helping Moore's transformation has been the Pac 10's best receiver
who doesn't play for USC, junior Sammie Stroughter. With
superior speed and and moves, he's too much for a corner to handle
for a full sixty minutes without consistent safety help on the deep
passes. As Hawaii found out, getting hit for an 80-yard touchdown,
even double teaming doesn't always work. Consistent and explosive,
he's a home run waiting to happen as both a receiver and a punt
returner.
Missouri's offense ideally works around the running game, but it
always ends up living and dying around the passing attack. Leading
receiver Will Franklin was knocked out for the year with a
tear in his shoulder, but it's not like the offense was lacking for
targets with the best tight end tandem in America in Chase
Coffman and Martin Rucker.
Coffman was more consistent as a receiver, but Rucker is a bit more
of an all-around playmaker and a slightly better blocker. Which
one's better? It depends on the day. Coffman caught 53 passes for
555 yards and eight touchdowns seemingly finding every seam and
every opening, while Rucker made 47 grabs for 444 yards and five
scores. Each will be earning NFL paychecks in the near future.
Missouri
will win if...
the passing yards turn into points.
Oregon State's secondary gives up plenty over yards, but it stiffens
up in crunch time and is great around the goal line. Hawaii had two
separate chances to turn the game around on long drives before
getting denied deep in Beaver territory. The same thing happened to
USC late. Daniel gets most of his work out of the shotgun and likes
to make plays on the move, especially to the tight ends, so moving
the ball at a regular clip shouldn't be a problem; there will be
plenty of plays over 15 yards. But without a true pounder of a back
and with Daniel occasionally prone to force throws that aren't
there, getting over the goal line will be tougher than it might seem
considering the yards Mizzou will finish with.
Oregon State will win if... get all the parts
humming. The Beavers aren't going to be able to control the game
with the ground game, even with a physical offensive line leading
the way for Bernard, but it should be effective enough to force the
Tiger linebackers to stay at home. There isn't much of a Tiger pass
rush without Smith, so Moore should have plenty of time to operate
and mix up his throws. Picking the right spots to hit Stroughter
deep will be key, while taking what the Tigers give him on blitzes
will also be vital. The quicker Moore reads what Mizzou is doing,
the more one-on-one coverage he'll sniff out. He's been doing a good
job at that lately.
What will happen: Expect plenty of passing a lots of big
plays. There won't be more tight end activity in any bowl this year
with Coffman, Rucker, and Oregon State's Joe Newton all to be
essential cogs, while the respective running game will likely have a
hard time getting going. It might be this simple; if Missouri gets
to Moore consistently, it'll win. If Moore has time, he'll pick
apart the burnable Tiger secondary. The Beavers will be outgained,
but will come up with four critical turnovers to stall promising
Tiger drives.
Line: Oregon State -3.5 ... CFN Prediction:
Oregon State 34 ... Missouri 27
Get
Tickets for the Sun Bowl |
Get more picks for this
game
Sun Bowl Player
Profile: Oregon State WR Sammie Stroughter, history & more