Texas Tech (7-5) vs. Minnesota
(6-6)
Dec. 29th,
7:30 p.m. ET, NFL Network
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Can Minnesota run enough to hold off the
Texas Tech passing game?
This isn't the Golden Gopher running attack of the past with
Laurence Maroney, Marion Barber, and others, but it's effective
enough to pound away for 151 yards a game. However, unlike other
Gopher teams, the passing game is more than just an accessory
forming the most balanced offense the team has had in years.
And then there's the defense.
Minnesota's defense has never been confused with a brick wall, and
this year, things have gone from bad to downright ugly finishing
112th in the nation in total defense and 115th in pass defense
allowing 254 yards per game.
|
|
National
Rankings |
|
Minnesota |
Texas
Tech |
|
Total Offense |
|
40th 368.58 ypg |
7th 439.5 ypg |
|
Total Defense |
|
112nd 416.25 ypg |
49th 323.08 ypg |
|
Scoring Offense |
|
36th 27.92 ppg |
16th 31.5 ppg |
|
Scoring Defense |
|
73rd 24.50 ppg |
68th 23.75 ppg |
|
Run Offense |
|
45th 151 ypg |
113th 76.33 ypg |
|
Run Defense |
|
95th 162.75 ypg |
76th 147.42 ypg |
|
Pass Offense |
|
44th 217.58 ypg |
3rd 363.17 ypg |
|
Pass Defense |
|
115th 253.5 ypg |
25th 175.67 ypg |
|
Turnover Margin |
|
1st 1.33 |
48th 0.17 |
|
Minnesota
at Kent State
W 44-0
at California L 42-17
Temple
W 62-0
at Purdue L 27-21
Michigan L 28-27 OT
Penn St
L 28-27 OT
at Wisc. L 48-12
N Dakota St
W 10-9
at Ohio State L 44-0
Indiana
W 63-26
at Mich St W 31-18
Iowa W 34-24 |
Texas Tech
SMU
W 45-3
at UTEP
W 38-35 OT
at TCU
L 12-3
SE La
W 62-0
at Te A&M
W 31-27
Missouri
L 38-21
at Colorado L 30-6
at Iowa St W 42-36
Texas
L 35-31
Baylor
W 55-21
at Okla L 34-24
Okla St
W 30-24 |
|
Position
Ratings
relative to each
other |
|
M |
5
highest
1 lowest |
TT |
|
4 |
Quarterbacks |
4 |
|
4 |
RBs |
3 |
|
3 |
Receivers |
4.5 |
|
4 |
O
Line |
4 |
|
3 |
D
Line |
3.5 |
|
2.5 |
Linebackers |
3.5 |
|
2 |
Secondary |
3.5 |
|
3 |
Spec
Teams |
4 |
|
4 |
Coaching |
5 |
|
This just in:
Texas Tech still throws the ball.
The Red Raiders are about a year away from getting next-level
statistics from the passing game with Graham Harrell still getting
his feet wet. The attack is at its best with a quarterback who's
been around the system for several years, and it took a full season
for Harrell to start to find his consistency. Even with the
problems, like disasters against Colorado and TCU, Tech is still
third in the nation averaging 363 passing yards per game.
Good enough to beat Texas A&M in a thriller, and explosive enough to
stay with Texas and Oklahoma, Texas Tech has the ability to get hot
and blow up a team like Minnesota to pieces. On the flip side, it
lost to Colorado by putting up just 276 yards and was held to 204
passing yards by TCU.
Even if Minnesota gets blasted, just getting to Tempe was a major
achievement needing to win its final three games of the season
beating Indiana, Michigan State and Iowa, to get a 13th game, and
possibly save head coach Glen Mason's job. This is a relatively
young team that was due for a down year, and it was.
Basically, the Gophers pulled off a little bit of an upset beating
Iowa, got screwed on a bad pass interference call in an overtime
loss to Penn State, and beat everyone it was supposed to. Outside of
a tough battle in a 27-21 road loss to Purdue, the Gophers basically
lost to everyone they were supposed to. Texas Tech is a team they're
supposed to lose to.
Will this be one of those strange bowl games that defies the logic?
Under Mason, Minnesota is normally a solid bowl team, despite a loss
to Virginia in last year's Music City Bowl, while Texas Tech hasn't
always been great when it's supposed to be. Either way, this will be
a decent notch in the belt of one of the Big conferences.
Players to watch: Texas Tech has several weapons to get the
ball, but it lost a good one with Jarrett Hicks, who's had
problems all season long, likely out due to academic issues. That
means Joel Filani and Robert Johnson will be that much
more involved, and they can pick up the slack. They're both big,
they're both tough, and they're both experienced with NFL caliber
skills with each catching 80 passes this year and combining for
1,912 yards and 22 touchdowns.
Minnesota has a bit of a passing game of its own with QB Bryan
Cupito the barometer to the team's success. When he's off,
Minnesota usually goes into the tank since the opposing safeties are
used to to stop the ground game. He doesn't have a next-level arm,
but he throws a nice deep ball and can get hot in stretches. Of his
eight interceptions, seven were thrown in losses and got sharp over
the final three games throwing eight touchdown passes with only one
pick against Iowa.
The Gopher ground game has mostly been Amir Pinnix, a limited
back who's nothing special compared to past Minnesota runners, but
ran for 1,093 yards and 14 touchdowns saving some of his best games
for last. With enough of a burst to get to the outside, and decent
power up the middle, he'll get the ball at least 20 times in an
attempt to control the clock to keep the Red Raider offense off the
field.
Of course, all eyes will be on Graham Harrell, a sophomore
who became a better decision maker as the season went on. Almost
benched on a permanent basis after throwing five interceptions in a
two-game losing stretch against Missouri and Colorado, he rebounded
to throw 17 touchdown passes and three interceptions over the final
five games of the year. He can dink and dunk as much as Minnesota
will let him, and he can push the ball deep when it's there. The key
will be to not forced anything; he won't have to against this
secondary.
Minnesota
will win if...
it's secondary makes its share of
plays. Oh sure, Harrell is a mortal lock to throw for 400 yards,
Minnesota allowed 1,040 through the air over its final three games,
but it also picked off nine passes. Getting top corner Trumaine
Banks (most likely) after he suffered a broken arm will be a huge
boost, but the Gophers will need a pass rush, good tackling from the
back seven on the short passes, and can't let Harrell get into a
groove. Minnesota leads the nation in turnover margin, and it needs
to be at least plus-two to stay in this.
Texas Tech will win if... it keeps the Gophers
to under 120 rushing yards. Over 120 and Minnesota is 5-1 only
losing in the strange game against Purdue. Under 120 yards, and
Minnesota is 1-5 with the one win coming against D-IAA North Dakota
State. The Red Raider run defense has been generally solid, but
outside of wins over Oklahoma State and Texas A&M, which required
Tech to come through by the skin of its teeth, there are big
problems when teams start to move the ball on the ground.
What will happen: Minnesota will play better than expected
and will have a defensive wrinkle or two that'll keep things close
for a half, then Tech head coach Mike Leach will work the kinks out,
Harrell will get going, and things will start to get away from the
Gophers. Expect plenty of points from both sides in an entertaining
game with around 800 yards of total offense between the two. This
will be the type of game that'll get people talking about Harrell in
the off-season.
Line: Texas Tech -7 ... CFN Prediction:
Texas Tech
38 ... Minnesota 27
Get
Tickets for the Insight Bowl |
Get more picks for this
game
Insight Bowl Player
Profile: Minnesota DE Willie VanDeSteeg, team bowl history and more