Purdue (8-5) vs. Maryland (8-4)
Dec. 29th,
8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
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Several bowl games this season should be
offensive shootouts thanks to fantastic offenses and explosive
weapons.
The 2006 Champs Sports Bowl won't be one of them, and it's not
because the offenses are awful. Well, the Maryland offense isn't
exactly what you'd call potent, but this will likely be an offensive
show because the defenses flat-out stink.
Purdue has taken a two-year break from stopping anyone finishing
this season 114th in the nation allowing 433 yards per game while
getting scored on more than Britney on a bender. Maryland's attack
has been consistently average, but the Boilermaker D provides just
the cure to get well.
 |
|
National
Rankings |
|
Purdue |
Maryland |
|
Total Offense |
|
10th 425.77 ypg |
96th 303.67 ypg |
|
Total Defense |
|
114th 432.69 ypg |
89th 366.92 ypg |
|
Scoring Offense |
|
92nd 26.92 ppg |
78th 21.67 ppg |
|
Scoring Defense |
|
92nd 26.92 ppg |
65th 23.08 ppg |
|
Run Offense |
|
62nd 132.08 ypg |
77th 123.92 ypg |
|
Run Defense |
|
112th 190.08 ypg |
102nd 174.75 ypg |
|
Pass Offense |
|
6th 293.69 ypg |
81st 179.75 ypg |
|
Pass Defense |
|
106th 242.62 ypg |
49th 192.17 ypg |
|
Turnover Margin |
|
52nd 0.08 |
101st -0.67 |
|
Purdue
Indiana St
W 60-35
Miami U.
W 38-31 OT
Ball State
W 38-28
Minnesota
W 27-21
at N Dame L 35-21
at Iowa L 47-17
at Nwest W 31-10
Wisconsin L 24-3
Penn State L 12-0
at Mich St W 17-15
at Illinois
W 42-31
Indiana
W 28-19
at Hawaii
L 42-35 |
Maryland
Will & Mary W 27-14
MTSU
W 24-10
at West Va L 45-24
FIU
W 14-10
at Ga Tech L 27-23
at Virginia W 28-26
NC State
W 26-20
Florida St
W 27-24
at Clemson W 13-12
Miami W 14-13
at Bos Coll L 38-16
Wake Forest
L 38-24 |
|
Position
Ratings
relative to each
other |
|
P |
5
highest
1 lowest |
M |
|
4 |
Quarterbacks |
3 |
|
3.5 |
RBs |
3.5 |
|
5 |
Receivers |
3.5 |
|
4 |
O
Line |
3 |
|
3 |
D
Line |
3 |
|
2.5 |
Linebackers |
4 |
|
2.5 |
Secondary |
3.5 |
|
2 |
Spec
Teams |
4.5 |
|
4 |
Coaching |
4 |
|
Basically, Purdue
won every game it was supposed to, and lost every game it was
supposed to. The offense bombed away on Notre Dame in s 35-21 loss,
the defense showed up against an offensively challenged Penn State
in a 12-0 loss, and Hawaii needed a big late drive to win 42-35. The
best win came at home over Minnesota, while the second best win came
over ... Indiana? Ball State? Let's just say Purdue still has a lot
to prove.
Maryland was rarely great, but it was almost always clutch in close
games beating FIU by four, Virginia by two, NC State by six, Florida
State by three, Clemson by one and Miami by one. Along the way, the
offense gained confidence knowing it could come through when it had
to getting a late drive and a last second field goal to beat Clemson
and two long touchdown catches from Darrius Heyward-Bey to beat
Miami.
For the most part, the Terps defy all logic. There passing game is
efficient, but not consistent. The running game is mediocre and
can't control games, the defense gives up drive and yards in
bunches, and then there are the turnovers. Lots and lots of
turnovers giving away 23 on the year with seven over the final two
games.
Purdue is all about throwing the ball, mostly to try to keep pace in
games the defense isn't effective. The offensive line has been solid
all season long, mostly in pass protection, while the receiving
corps has enough weapons to keep the Terp defenders busy for a full
sixty minutes. Fine, the defense has had its moments against the
average offenses and it's an aggressive group that can get into the
backfield, but for the most part, it's been awful.
These might not be the most perfect teams around, but one will
finish the year with its ninth win and on the upswing going into
2007. This is one of the most unpredictable bowl games of the year,
and with the way Purdue plays in the post-season, with its last
seven among the most entertaining in each bowl season, this could be
more fun than it'll get credit for.
Players to watch: Purdue will likely try to win with the
running game, but the offense revolves around QB Curtis Painter.
Originally inserted in the lineup last year for Brandon Kirsch
because he was better at making the pitch in the option, Painter
grew into a mad bomber this year with 200 passing yards or more in
every game but two and with three 400-yard days. He wasn't used all
that often as a runner this year, but he's likely to run a bit more
option on the Terps. At the very least, he'll take off more rather
than force his throws.
While Maryland QB Sam Hollenbach will certainly get his
throws in, Keon Lattimore and Lance Ball will likely
carry the offense. Lattimore has it all with breakaway speed in a
235-pound frame, but he only has all but disappeared after the first
two games until he tore off 114 yards on 15 carries against Virginia
and finished the year as the workhorse against Wake Forest with 119
yards on 23 carries. Ball is a bit more of a shifty, dependable back
who's more likely to pound away than break off the big run.
The Terp backs should be able to do whatever they want against the
squishy-soft Purdue defensive tackles, but they'll be sure to run
away from senior Anthony Spencer on the outside. One of the
Big Ten's most productive defensive players with 10.5 sacks, even
though he's not a pure pass rusher, 86 tackles, and 26.5 tackles for
loss. He'll require the attention of two blockers on every play.
Maryland's defense will need a phenomenal game out of corner Josh
Wilson, who'll likely lock up on Purdue's Dorien Bryant
whenever possible. With great speed and excellent tackling ability
for his size, Wilson is the one player Painter needs to look for
before every snap. Expect the rest of the Terp secondary to be
tested early and often.
Maryland will win if...
it controls the clock with the
running game, limits the turnovers, and at all costs, avoids a
firefight. Even against Purdue's porous defense, Maryland likely
won't be able to score in bunches. More often than not, the
Boilermakers were stingy against the lousy offenses giving up just
ten to Northwestern, 12 to Penn State and 19 to Indiana; Maryland's
offense is lousy. Ball and Lattimore have to be effective pounding
the ball and keeping the chains moving to keep the Purdue offense
off the field. Unfortunately, Purdue is great at converting on third
downs while Maryland only converts 34.8% of its chances. If the
Terps don't run for 200 yards and don't hold on to the ball for more
than 33 minutes (they're 92nd in the nation in time of possession
while Purdue is 107th), they likely won't win.
Purdue will win if... it wins the turnover battle.
Purdue has the far better offense and should be able to, as
simplistic as this might sound, outscore the Terps if everything is
even. If the offense starts giving the ball away and provides
Maryland with short fields and several easy opportunities, there
will be trouble. Hollenbach and the offense is good at capitalizing
on errors, and Purdue lost ten fumbles over the final three games
and turned it over 29 times on the year.
What will happen: The aggressiveness of the Purdue defense
will make up for most of the problems, while the offense will be too
balanced and too potent for the Terps. Maryland will pound the ball
for at least 250 running yards and will crank out several big
drives, but not enough of them will turn into scores. It'll be a
tight game until Painter and Bryant start to get into a second half
groove putting the game out of reach, while Spencer and the Purdue
defensive front will do a great job of consistently getting to
Hollenbach to thwart a comeback.
Line: Maryland -3 ... CFN Prediction:
Purdue 31 ... Maryland 27