Navy (9-3) vs. Boston College (9-3)
Dec. 30,
1:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
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Win one for the Spaz.
Can Navy finally end out doubts that its offense can rumble against
just about anyone? Can Boston College prove that life will go on
without head coach Tom O'Brien? Can the Eagles play hard enough on
defense to keep Coach Spaz around?
Green Bay assistant coach Jeff Jagodzinski will take over for
O'Brien, but he hasn't named his coaching staff yet and the players
are making a push for defensive coordinator, and interim head coach,
Frank Sapiani to stay. Close down the Navy attack with an inspired
performance and the players might get their wish.
 |
|
National
Rankings |
|
Boston College |
Navy |
|
Total Offense |
|
47th 357.42 ypg |
30th 381.33 ypg |
|
Total Defense |
|
29th 303.17 ypg |
64th 336.83 ypg |
|
Scoring Offense |
|
46th 26.08 ppg |
33rd 28.58 ppg |
|
Scoring Defense |
|
13th 15 ppg |
40th 19.67 ppg |
|
Run Offense |
|
88th 116.33 ypg |
1st 327.42 ypg |
|
Run Defense |
|
13th 303.17 ypg |
41st 120.33 ypg |
|
Pass Offense |
|
25th 241.08 ypg |
119th 53.92 ypg |
|
Pass Defense |
|
79th 213.08 ypg |
84th 216.50 ypg |
|
Turnover Margin |
|
2nd 1.25 |
52nd 0.08 |
|
Boston Coll
at CMU W 31-24
Clem. W 34-33 2OT
BYU
W 30-23 2OT
at NC State
L 17-15
Maine
W 22-0
Va Tech
W 22-3
at Fla St W 24-19
Buffalo
W 41-0
at W Forest L 21-14
Duke
W 28-7
Maryland
W 38-16
at Miami L 17-14 |
Navy
E Carolina W 28-23
Mass. W 21-20
at Stanford W 37-9
Tulsa L 24-23
at Conn. W 41-17
at Air Force W 24-17
Rutgers L 34-0
Notre Dame L 38-14
at Duke W 38-13
at EMU W 49-21
Temple W 42-6
vs. Army W 26-14 |
|
Position
Ratings
relative to each
other |
|
BC |
5
highest
1 lowest |
N |
|
5 |
Quarterbacks |
5 |
|
3.5 |
RBs |
4 |
|
3.5 |
Receivers |
1.5 |
|
3.5 |
O
Line |
3.5 |
|
4 |
D
Line |
3 |
|
4 |
Linebackers |
3 |
|
3.5 |
Secondary |
3 |
|
3.5 |
Spec
Teams |
3 |
|
3 |
Coaching |
5 |
|
Considering
everything O'Brien did to get the program to its highly consistent
status, it's a shame he's already off to NC State for what might be
the team's first ten-win season since 1984. As is, his Eagles
cranked out their third nine-win season in a row and fourth in five
years while coming agonizingly close to playing for the ACC title.
Matt Ryan threw for 402 yards in a loss to Wake Forest, Daniel Evans
threw a last-second touchdown pass in NC State's 17-15 win over BC,
and Miami won an emotional 17-14 regular season finale. Along the
way, there were two wins in double-overtime thrillers over Clemson
and BYU, a road win over Florida State, and a huge day from the
defense in a key win over Maryland.
Navy has become so consistent it's easy to forget how amazing the
current run is. Looking for its second ten-win season in three
years, Navy and the nation's number one rushing offense will be
looking for its best win over the year by far.
Athletically and talent-wise, Navy doesn't even belong on the same
field as BC, but with the execution of the offense, and the gritty
play of the D, it has a shot to make a big statement in what would
be the biggest win of Johnson's tenure. Fantastic in its last two
bowl games, the Midshipmen have to hope the BC coaching change will
be a distraction and the Eagles will come in a bit overconfident.
The Midshipmen beat the average teams like East Carolina, Stanford
and Connecticut, but got stomped on in the two prove-it games
getting outscored by Notre Dame and Rutgers 72-14. Unfortunately for
Navy, BC provides a nasty matchup.
The Eagles only allowed 90 rushing yards per game, was second in the
nation in turnover margin, and has an effective, efficient passing
attack going against a middling Midshipmen secondary. On paper, BC
should win this without breaking a sweat, but strange things have
been known to happen in bowl games.
This could either be the ultimate chance to prove the option can
work at a high level, or it'll show that Navy just can't break
though the ceiling.
Players to watch: Boston College would like to use the
running game to grind it out, but the passing attack should be more
effective against a Navy pass rush might be non-existent against the
strong Eagle offensive line. That means junior QB Matt Ryan,
who likely would've been the the ACC Player of the Year had the
Eagle gone to the title game, should go ballistic. A great decision
maker with a nice arm and good accuracy, Ryan has been a steady
leader and playmaker all season long. He epitomized the overused
term "manage the game" and is fantastic at putting the ball in
places where his receivers can make plays.
Speaking of managing a game, Ryan's counterpart, QB
Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada,
has to be nearly flawless. Stepping in when starter Brian Hampton
got knocked out for the season, the sophomore struggled early
getting thrown to the wolves against Rutgers and Notre Dame, and
then started to figure out what he was doing and got the offense
moving helped by a 119-yard rushing day against Duke and 140 yards
against Temple.
Kaheaku-Enhada will have to be
even better than he was over the second half of the year with star
fullback Adam Ballard out after breaking his leg against
Army. Without him, Navy doesn't have nearly the inside presence it
might like unless Matt Hall and Eric Kettani can be
effective. Hall saw plenty of action before Ballard emerged in 2005
and is hardly new to the position. While not the pounder Ballard is,
Hall can be effective. Kettani, a sophomore, is the star of the
future and could use a breakout performance to prove to the coaching
staff that he's a runner to revolve the option around.
BC's hopes likely rest on the shoulders, and the tackling ability,
of linebackers Brian Toal, Jolonn Dunber and Tyrone
Pruitt. The defensive tackles are good enough to stuff the
inside running game, so it'll be up to the linebacking trio to be
patient, disciplined, and make plays on the outside. Three yard runs
are fine; consistent seven, eight, ten yard gains won't be.
Boston College
will win if...
it's run defense plays like it has
all season long while the offense limits the turnovers. BC hasn't
allowed more than 170 rushing yards all season long having the most
problems with effective passers. Navy has the worst passing attack
in America and will rely on the run even if it's not going anywhere.
With several weeks to practice and prepare, the Eagle defensive
front seven should be ready, even with the coaching change, so as
long as the offense doesn't make give Navy several breaks, this
should be an easy win. Getting up by two scores early might spark a
blowout.
Navy will win if... the Eagles aren't focused. If
the linebackers overpursue and try to make every play, if Ryan isn't
sharp, and if the team just assumes it can just show up thinking
"it's just Navy," this might be close. Everything has to click for
the Midshipmen and everything has to be precise. .Time of
possession, turnover margin, everything has to be nearly perfect.
Defensively, it'll all start by holding up against the run. If BC is
cranking out yards in chunks, forget about it. Ryan is too good as
is without having to force the offense. Offensively,
Kaheaku-Enhada needs to quickly read
what BC's tendencies are and he has to get the ball to his outside
runners where they can do something with it.
What will happen: What stops a great option offense? Talented
linebackers. The BC defensive front seven has been fantastic all
season long holding Clemson's fantastic ground game to just 136
yards and keeping Wake Forest to 160. Navy might get 200, but it's
not going to get the 350 it'll need to pull off the upset. BC will
be too athletic, too strong on both lines, and too fired up to fight
through the coaching change to not get the win.
Line: Boston College -7 ... CFN Prediction:
Boston College 31 ... Navy 14