Texas (9-3) vs. Iowa (6-6)
Dec.
30,
4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Get
Tickets for the Alamo Bowl |
Get more picks for this
game
Alamo Bowl
Player Profile: Texas OL Justin Blalock, team bowl history and more
If you had said before the season that
Texas and Iowa would be squaring off in a bowl, you might have
assumed it would be in some BCS game. After all, Texas, the
defending national champions, were expected to be good enough to win
the Big 12 title, while Iowa, led by senior QB Drew Tate and with a
relatively favorable schedule, appeared ready for a big year.
Not quite.
Call this the Limp Bowl as the two teams are coming in on major down
notes with Iowa losing five of its last six games and Texas blowing
a shot at the national championship with a loss to Kansas State
before choking away the Big 12 South with a home loss to Texas A&M.
Considering the Longhorns were hoping for a trip to Arizona and the
Fiesta Bowl, the Alamo is hardly going excite anyone. On the other
hand, Iowa has to be doing cartwheels to get a bowl game this good
when it should rightfully be off to the Insight, if not worse.
|
|
National
Rankings |
|
Iowa |
Texas |
|
Total Offense |
|
29th 237 ypg |
23rd 392.58 ypg |
|
Total Defense |
|
67th 340.92 ypg |
22nd 291.92 ypg |
|
Scoring Offense |
|
58th 23.83 ppg |
5th 36.75 ppg |
|
Scoring Defense |
|
45th 20.25 ppg |
25th 17.83 ppg |
|
Run Offense |
|
47th 148 ypg |
30th 170.33 ypg |
|
Run Defense |
|
63rd 138.92 ypg |
2nd 58.83 ypg |
|
Pass Offense |
|
27th 237 ypg |
41st 222.25 ypg |
|
Pass Defense |
|
63rd 202 ypg |
98th 233.08 ypg |
|
Turnover Margin |
|
107th -0.83 |
16th 0.67 |
|
Iowa
Montana
W 41-7
at SU
W 20-13 2OT
Iowa State
W 27-17
at Illinois
W 24-7
Ohio State
L 38-17
Purdue
W 47-17
at Indiana
L 31-28
at Michigan L 20-6
No Illinois
W 24-14
Northwestern
L 21-7
Wisconsin
L 24-21
at Minnesota
L 34-24 |
Texas
North Texas W 56-7
Ohio State
L 24-7
at Rice
W 52-7
Iowa State
W 37-14
S Houston St
W 56-3
Oklahoma
W 28-10
Baylor
W 63-31
at Nebraska
W 22-20
at Tex Tech W 35-31
Okla St
W 36-10
at Kans St
W 45-42
Texas A&M
L 12-7 |
|
Position
Ratings
relative to each
other |
|
I |
5
highest
1 lowest |
T |
|
4 |
Quarterbacks |
4 |
|
4 |
RBs |
4 |
|
3 |
Receivers |
4 |
|
3.5 |
O
Line |
4.5 |
|
3 |
D
Line |
4.5 |
|
3.5 |
Linebackers |
4.5 |
|
3.5 |
Secondary |
3.5 |
|
3.5 |
Spec
Teams |
4 |
|
4.5 |
Coaching |
4 |
|
For the Hawkeyes,
this is a chance to make amends for a disappointing year and get the
fan base jazzed up for 2007, even though Tate will be graduating,
and prove the program hasn't slipped as much as it appears. After a
nice 5-1 start with a forgivable loss to Ohio State and a memorable
goal line stand to beat Syracuse, the season appeared to be on the
verge of big things with Indiana, Northwestern and Northern Illinois
still to play and with Wisconsin coming to Iowa City, but the
Hoosiers pulled off a 31-28 shocker, the Wildcats stunned the
Hawkeyes 21-7, and the NIU game being the only win in the second
half of the year.
Texas lost to Ohio State in early September, but there was a general
feeling the team was just getting started with new starting
quarterback Colt McCoy getting his feet wet. After going on a nice
run winning eight straight games including a dominant stomping of
Oklahoma, who had Adrian Peterson at the time, and with a rally to
beat Nebraska in Lincoln, talk was starting to swirl about a
possible rematch with the Buckeyes for the national title. McCoy got
hurt against Kansas State, wasn't quite the same against Texas A&M,
and the Longhorns are in San Antonio.
To say Texas underachieved is a bit too harsh. No, the defense
wasn't nearly as good as it should've been and Jamaal Charles and
the running game didn't do what it was supposed to, but there's
still enough talent in Austin to keep the NFL happy. With a team
good enough to have played for the national title, there's no a
question of whether or not Mack Brown caught lighting in a bottle
with Vince Young, or if last year just an aberration for him and his
coaching staff.
Iowa can move the ball, especially through the air, and the defense
wasn't awful, but the lines weren't up to normal Hawkeye snuff and
there were turnovers. Lots and lots of turnovers, 29 to be exact,
and they all seemed to come at the worst times. Injuries were a
major problem, but not coming through in the clutch on either side
of the ball against inferior teams was the bigger issue.
This is the Big 12's big chance to keep the momentum going in the
Alamo. 4-7 against the Big Ten after last year's 32-28 Nebraska win
over Michigan, Texas is a heavy favorite. Will the time off help
Iowa get everyone right, or will it benefit the Longhorns with McCoy
coming back from a neck injury? Will Texas pull a clunker in a
disappointing bowl? Will Iowa pull a 1998 Purdue when it beat a far
better Kansas State team? A win for the Big Ten would be a major
feather in the league's cap and would be disastrous for the Big 12,
but the loss would be even worse for Brown and Texas putting the
heat on for next year.
Players to watch: Is Drew Tate finally right?
Expected to make a big jump in overall production and lead the way
to a possible Big Ten title, he was banged up throughout the season,
was never consistent, and appeared to press too much and made too
many mistakes with 12 interceptions with six in the final three
games. But he's always thrown picks with 33 in 41 career games.
Unlike past seasons when he made up for his mistakes with a
game-changing play or two to save the day, he wasn't able to come
through when needed. A Texas high school legend, this is his chance
to make amends and go out with a bang.
Tate's counterpart, Colt McCoy, is expected to be all systems
go after having problems with a pinched nerve in his neck. When he
was right, he proved to be a solid decision maker and accurate
playmaker throwing at least two touchdown passes in every game over
the nine-game winning streak before getting hurt against Kansas
State barreling in for a touchdown. He grew into a leader and threw
like a more confident passer as the season went on. This is now his
team for the next few years; as he goes, so goes Texas.
No matter what McCoy does, Texas will need some help from the
running game. Selvin Young and Jamaal Charles have
been solid, but not spectacular with Charles having a surprisingly
disappointing year. As fast as any back in the Big 12, he didn't
break off nearly enough home runs and went through a big-time
scoring drought in the middle of the year going five games without a
touchdown scoring four over the final three games and three in the
first four. This is the final game for Young, who's been a solid
complementary back throughout his career and an excellent kick
returner. When he gets the opportunity to work, he's productive.
For Iowa to keep the chains moving, Tate has to be on and he has to
find his go-to target, tight end Scott Chandler, right off
the bat. Dominique Douglas led the team in receptions, but it
was Chandler who was the key on third downs and when the team needed
a big grab making 44 catches for 555 yards and six scores. At 6-7
and with great athleticism, he's a matchup nightmare for the Texas
back seven.
Texas
will win if...
Iowa's defense hasn't come up with
a new wrinkle over the last several weeks. The Hawkeye run defense
was on a bit of a roll doing a fantastic job against Michigan and
keeping NIU's Garrett Wolfe in check, and then it fell off the map
getting pounded on by the Northwestern, Wisconsin and Minnesota
lines. Basically, the front four hit a wall. Texas hasn't quite used
its line like it should've throughout the season and hasn't
dominated enough games by grinding it out, but it should be able to
against the undersized Hawkeyes. The Longhorn front five should be
better as the game goes on, so if you're noticing linebacker Mike
Klinkenborg or the Hawkeye defensive backs making plays on Charles
and Young, you know things aren't going well for Iowa.
Iowa will win if... Texas is all pouty. We've
seen it before, like the 2003 Holiday Bowl loss to Washington State,
when the far superior Longhorn team left its head back in Austin.
Iowa can't win this thing straight up unless Texas is unfocused, or
unless Tate turns into a madman. The UT secondary, even with future
NFL millionaire Michael Griffin and Thorpe Award winner Aaron Ross,
has been awful at times getting beaten too often by pedestrian
passing games and ripped apart by good ones. Tate is looking to make
amends for this season, and if he gets hot, all bets are off. He's
the type of gritty, gutty playmaker who can keep Iowa in the game by
himself as long as he's not making mistakes.
What will happen: It all depends on how seriously Texas takes
this. Iowa doesn't have the talent or athleticism to hang around for
more than three quarters if the Longhorns bring their A game on both
sides of the ball, but if Colt McCoy is still hanging his passes
like he was against Texas A&M, and if the defense is giving up the
deep passes like it did against Kansas State, the Hawkeyes have a
shot. The Texas lines will turn out to be too much for Iowa to
overcome and Tate will throw two critical interceptions to all but
end the game in the second quarter.
Line: Texas -10.5 ... CFN Prediction:
Texas
34 ... Iowa 20