Miami (6-6) vs. Nevada (8-4)
Dec. 31,
7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
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MPC Computers Bowl
Player Profile: Miami S Kenny Phillips, team bowl history and more
If you're a BCS conference team playing
in Boise in late December, something went horribly, horribly wrong.
If you're Miami and you're playing in Boise in late December, you're
starting over.
Miami can't exorcise all its demons with a win over a not-that-bad
Nevada team, but it can prove it has the heart to make a fresh start
and salvage something out of one of the most disappointing seasons
in school history while sending Larry Coker out a winner.
In his last game as the Miami head coach before Randy Shannon takes
over, Coker can't afford the ultimate indignity, no offense to the
Wolf Pack, and lose to a WAC team after all the good things he's
done over the years. The players should play hard for them, and for
themselves, but will it be enough? Is the team simply not that good?
 |
|
National
Rankings |
|
Miami |
Nevada |
|
Total Offense |
|
87th 314.58 ypg |
46th 362.58 ypg |
|
Total Defense |
|
5th 252.08 ypg |
55th 327.58 ypg |
|
Scoring Offense |
|
88th 19.50 ppg |
19th 30.92 ppg |
|
Scoring Defense |
|
14th 15.08 ppg |
33rd 19 ppg |
|
Run Offense |
|
78th 123.33 ypg |
22nd 176.83 ypg |
|
Run Defense |
|
3rd 66 ypg |
59th 136.92 ypg |
|
Pass Offense |
|
67th 191.25 ypg |
75th 185.75 ypg |
|
Pass Defense |
|
39th 186.08 ypg |
45th 190.67 ypg |
|
Turnover Margin |
|
75th -0.25 |
7th 1.00 |
|
Miami
Florida St
L 14-10
Fla A&M
W 51-10
at Louisville
L 31-7
Houston
W 14-13
No Carolina
W 27-7
FIU
W 35-0
at Duke
W 20-15
at Ga Tech L 30-23
Va Tech
L 17-10
at Maryland
L 14-13
at Virginia
L 17-7
Boston Col
W 17-14 |
Nevada
at Fresno St L 28-19
at Arizona St L 52-21
Colorado St
W 28-10
Nwestern
W 31-21
at UNLV
W 31-3
at Hawaii L 41-34
San Jose St
W 23-7
NMSU
W 48-21
at Idaho
W 45-7
Utah State
W 42-0
at La Tech
W 42-0
Boise State L 35-7 |
|
Position
Ratings
relative to each
other |
|
M |
5
highest
1 lowest |
N |
|
3 |
Quarterbacks |
4 |
|
3.5 |
RBs |
3.5 |
|
3.5 |
Receivers |
3.5 |
|
3.5 |
O
Line |
3.5 |
|
4.5 |
D
Line |
3 |
|
4 |
Linebackers |
3 |
|
5 |
Secondary |
4 |
|
4 |
Spec
Teams |
3.5 |
|
3.5 |
Coaching |
4 |
|
The Canes had
the talent, at least on defense, and the schedule to be a sleeper
for the national title hunt with Florida State, Virginia Tech and
Boston College coming to the Orange Bowl, and with road games
against Louisville and Georgia Tech the worst of the bunch.
Unfortunately, the lack of any consistent offense, and the inability
to ever come up with a clutch play, meant a 1-4 record on the road
with the lone victory coming in a stunning 20-15 fight with Duke.
Speaking of brawls, the season will be remembered for the ugly
incident against FIU that gave Miami the thug tag again, while the
tragic death of defensive lineman Bryan Pata made a bad year truly
horrible. Even so, Miami wasn't all that far off from a good year
with four of the losses coming by a touchdown or less. The opening
day loss to Florida State could've gone either way, and the 14-13
loss to Maryland thanks to two big Darrius Heyward-Bey pass plays.
Nevada is looking to be more than just a patsy in the play as it
goes for its second straight nine-win season. Chris Ault's club won
eight of its last ten games only losing at Hawaii and in the regular
season final against Boise State, but it failed to come up with any
wins of significance. When you're hanging your hat on a 23-7 victory
over San Jose State, you're not exactly striking fear into the
hearts of the big boys.
While Miami might not be Miami, this would still be a big win
for a Wolf Pack program, and a WAC, in constant search for respect
and publicity. Miami would have to not bring its A game while the
Pack has to be fired up and sharp for a sixty minutes, but there's
enough of a Nevada offense to pull this off.
The MPC Computers Bowl, formerly known as the Humanitarian Bowl, has
had its lousy moments, like when grossly overmatched Tulsa and
Louisiana Tech teams were obliterated by Georgia Tech and Clemson
respectively, but it's been a stunningly competitive bowl over the
last few years with Fresno State coming back to beat Virginia in
overtime and Boston College hanging on to stop Boise State last
year. It'll be the last game of 2006. If it's not any good, you'll
quickly forget about it after your night out.
Players to watch: Call this the big final audition for
Kirby Freeman. With Kyle Wright injured/ineffective,
Freeman stepped in and started over the final three games of the
season and did nothing to show he's a must for the number one gig
next year. To be fair, the receiving corps hasn't given him a whole
bunch of help, but he has to be more consistent and can't try to
make plays that aren't there. He's not the passer Wright is, with
seven interceptions and five touchdown passes, but he's more mobile
and has to be accounted for when things start to break down.
Nevada's offense works best when it's running the ball effectively,
but it needs senior QB Jeff Rowe to come up with a big
performance in his finale. A second-day draft prospect, he has the
height, the experience, the mobility, and an accurate arm when the
offense is working. What he doesn't have is a signature moment this
year despite completing 65% of his throws with 16 touchdown passes
and seven interceptions. He's coming off an awful outing against
Boise State completing just six of 15 passes for 35 yards, and now
he has to prove he can deal with an even faster, more athletic
defense.
Wolf Pack RBs Luke Lippincott and Robert Hubbard
aren't going to steamroll over the Canes, but they have to be
effective and they have to take advantage every time there's a hole
to fly through. Lippincott's a former safety with more power than
speed coming on over the second half of the season to be a major
workhorse. He ran for 359 yards and seven touchdowns in a three week
span, but Miami isn't Idaho, Utah State or Louisiana Tech. Hubbard's
workload decreased with the emergence of Lippincott, but he's the
team's best back.
Trying to keep the Pack ground game in check, while also getting to
Rowe, will be Calais Campbell, who led the team with ten
sacks, 20 tackles for loss, and finished third with 49 tackles. He's
6-8, fast, and athletic. The NFL scouts will be watching closely
over the next year as he has first round potential if he keeps
improving.
Nevada
will win if... Boise, Idaho in late December is Boise, Idaho
in late December. Miami is saying all the right things about not
caring about the cold weather, with some claiming to be excited
about the possibility of playing in non-Miami conditions. That all
goes out the window after about 15 minutes. To generalize, Florida
players, who are used to practicing in 98-degree, 100% humidity
conditions, hate playing in cold weather and seem to lose an edge
once the thermometer drops. The forecast for the 31st in Boise is
for a high of 38 degrees and a low of around 28. The expected low in
Miami on the 31st is 70. Nevada doesn't have the talent or
athleticism to try throwing it around or getting into a speed game
against the nation's fifth best defense, but it might be able to
power it a little bit. It'll be interesting to see how frail Miami's
psyche is after a long season. If it's really cold, and the Pack is
pounding the ball with its good offensive line, Miami won't quit,
but it might be ready to get this year over with, get on a plane,
and move on.
Miami will win if... the Miami defense is the
Miami defense. This isn't the Nevada offense of last year, and while
it threw some impressive numbers on the board against the UNLVs and
Northwesterns of the world, it died against Boise State and didn't
exactly explode on Arizona State. Miami is way too fast for the Wolf
Pack and has way too many playmakers. As long as the offense is
competent, takes advantage of every opportunity, and doesn't screw
up, the defense will take care of the rest.
What will happen: Will Miami care? It seems like such a
nebulous and arbitrary factor, but this is Nevada's Rose Bowl. It's
going to come out looking to prove to the world it can play, and it
doesn't care whether or not Miami is interested; it just wants the
win. The Cane defense will dominate from the word go, while the
running game will do just enough to hold up its end. Nevada's
offensive line can run block, but it can't protect Rowe, so expect
at least five Miami sacks. Also expect Kirby Freeman to screw up
enough to keep the score in the stratosphere.
Line: Miami -3 ... CFN Prediction:
Miami
24 ... Nevada 10