Penn State (8-4) vs. Tennessee (9-3)
Jan. 1st,
11:00 a.m. ET, ESPN
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Player Profile: Penn State LB Sean Lee, team bowl history and more
The Big Ten has as much speed as the
SEC. The Big Ten has as much speed as the SEC. The Big Ten has as
much speed as the SEC.
The notion that the SEC is the fastest conference in the country
isn't necessarily right (the Pac 10 can really, really move), but it
does have a lot of speed teams since so many SEC defense choose to
go small and quick rather than big and bulky. Even so, all the top
teams across the nation have players who can run, jump, and fly, and
Penn State is no exception despite getting the slow, strong and
stodgy tags by most. However, if Tennessee wins in a walk, the
message boards will lit up like a Christmas tree with SEC fans
saying, "told you so."
Sure, Tennessee might win easily, but if it does, it won't be
because of speed; it'll be because it's the better team. It'll just
look like Penn State is slower.
 |
|
National
Rankings |
|
Tennessee |
Penn
State |
|
Total Offense |
|
33rd 374.33 ypg |
55th 347.42 ypg |
|
Total Defense |
|
52nd 323.17 ypg |
16th 279 ypg |
|
Scoring Offense |
|
27th 29.33 ppg |
71st 22.50 ppg |
|
Scoring Defense |
|
38th 19.50 ppg |
12th 14.75 ppg |
|
Run Offense |
|
95th 110.08 ypg |
48th 147.25 ypg |
|
Run Defense |
|
71st 143.67 ypg |
10th 87.83 ypg |
|
Pass Offense |
|
13th 264.25 ypg |
57th 200.17 ypg |
|
Pass Defense |
|
29th 179.50 ypg |
47th 191.17 ypg |
|
Turnover Margin |
|
42nd 0.25 |
72nd -0.17 |
|
Tennessee
California W 35-18
Air Force
W 31-30
Florida L 21-20
Marshall
W 33-7
at Memphis
W 41-7
at Georgia
W 51-33
Alabama
W 16-13
at S Car
W 31-24
LSU
L 28-24
at Arkansas L 31-14
at Vandy
W 39-10
Kentucky
W 17-12 |
Penn State
Akron W 34-16
at N Dame L 41-17
Ytown St
W 37-3
at Ohio State L 28-6
Nwestern
W 33-7
at Minn. W 28-27 OT
Michigan
L 17-10
Illinois
W 26-12
at Purdue
W 12-0
at Wisconsin
L 13-3
Temple
W 47-0
Michigan St
W 17-13 |
|
Position
Ratings
relative to each
other |
|
T |
5
highest
1 lowest |
PSU |
|
4.5 |
Quarterbacks |
3 |
|
3.5 |
RBs |
4 |
|
5 |
Receivers |
4 |
|
4 |
O
Line |
4 |
|
3.5 |
D
Line |
4 |
|
4 |
Linebackers |
5 |
|
4 |
Secondary |
3.5 |
|
4 |
Spec
Teams |
4.5 |
|
4 |
Coaching |
4 |
|
By design, the
Nittany Lions have to slowwwwww the pace down with a power running
game and good defense since it doesn't have the offensive firepower
to hang punch for punch with the Vols. Coming off a Big Ten title
and a win in the Orange Bowl, Penn State failed to inspire more than
a big national yawn after getting its doors blown off by Notre Dame
41-17 and losing on two late pick sixes against Ohio State. The best
win this year was over Minnesota, and that was only because a
gift-wrapped pass interference call kept the game alive.
Against the four big boys on the slate (Notre Dame, Ohio State,
Michigan and Wisconsin), Penn State lost all four scoring just 36
points. Only 12 of those came before the fourth quarter. The Nittany
Lions have to try to win this game with its defense.
Unlike Penn State, Tennessee's passing game is as potent as it's
been in years and will look to deliver the knockout blow right off
the bat. With no running game to speak of, at least one that one be
effective against the Nittany Lion defensive front, the Vols have to
win with flash, dash, and a little bit of defense.
Tennessee got blasted too hard for a bad 2005, with several close
losses against a nasty schedule, and got a little too much praise
for a bounce-back year winning several tight ones against mostly
mediocre teams like Alabama, South Carolina and Kentucky. It hung
around with Florida in a one-point loss despite not getting any
offense, lived through an Erik Ainge ankle injury but lost to LSU
and Arkansas in the process, and generally waxed the vastly inferior
teams.
What can this game prove? Penn State can show that 2005 might not
have been a one-year aberration in the program's slide into also-ran
status. Tennessee can get its third ten-win season in four years and
show that 2005 was a fluke. And one way or another, one team will
keep the speed stereotype rolling, or put a temporary kibosh on it.
Players to watch: With top defensive tackle Ed Johnson
suspended, even more responsibility will fall on the shoulders
of the great Penn State linebacking corps. It took a few weeks for
Paul
Posluszny to regain his form, but he soon became even better
than he was in his Butkus Award winning 2005 season. Even though Poz
won his second straight Bednarik Award as the nation's top defensive
player, junior Dan Connor might have had the better year. He
picked up the slack early when Poluszny was struggling, was more of
a factor in the backfield throughout the year, and finished with
more solo stops. Throw Sean Lee in the mix, and Tennessee's
running game isn't going anywhere on this group.
Tennessee's defensive stars are in the secondary led by safeties
Jonathan Hefney and Demetrice Morley. Hefney isn't big at
only 5-8 and 174 pounds, but he
can flat out fly and is one of the nation's best tackling defensive
backs with a team-leading 93 stops with 66 solo.
Morely also isn't the biggest guy around, and he isn't quite the
tackler Hefney is, but he's great in space and tremendous in double
coverage. As good as these two are, if they're making a lot of
tackles, that means something's not working on the defensive front
against the Penn State running game. That also means Tony Hunt
is likely having a great game.
The Nittany Lions can't win by throwing the ball, so it's up to Hunt
to carry the workload and the offensive hopes. As unnoticed and
underappreciated as a Penn State running back can get, he rumbled
for 1,228 yards and 11 touchdowns with seven 100-yard games. While
he put up big numbers against teams like Temple, Youngstown State
and Northwestern, he also ran for 135 yards on Ohio State. He's not
going to break off many home runs against the Volunteer defensive
back seven, but he should be able to pound the ball up the middle
for three, four, seven yards a crack.
Tennessee's offense flourished thanks to a resurgent Erik Ainge
and an All-America season from Robert Meachem. Always
fast and always talented, the junior put it all together with a
67-catch, 1,265-yard, 11 touchdown campaign. While the emergence of
Bret Smith and Jayson Swain has helped take some of
the heat off, Meache's made several plays on his own cranking out yards
after the catch as well as anyone in the nation. When Ainge gets him
the ball on the move, big things happen, and he'll have even more
work to shoulder with Smith out after academic problems.
Tennessee
will win if... it gets up early. Penn State has speed and
talent in the secondary, and although they held Ohio State down,
they've been burned by most passing games with a pulse. Notre Dame
ripped it apart, Michigan State had few problems, and Michigan and Minnesota did whatever it wanted to. Tennessee doesn't
have to go to the home run ball on every play, but it has to quickly
and efficiently spread the passing around and get everyone involved
early on. Penn State will try to control the clock with its running
game, but the Vols can do the same with its air attack as long as
the offensive line keeps Ainge upright.
Penn State will win if...
Hunt runs for 100 yards or more and controls the game. Anthony
Morelli isn't ready for the big-time quite yet having failed to
prove he can be a difference maker against a top team. If Hunt isn't
running well, Penn State's offense likely won't be going anywhere.
Hunt was held to 74 yards in the loss to Notre Dame, but the team
got behind so quickly that it had to start throwing. He only ran for
33 yards in the loss to Michigan, and got shut down by Wisconsin
only running for 35 yards. Tennessee has gotten into the most
trouble when teams are effective running up the gut. It lost to
Arkansas after giving up 259 yards, to LSU after allowing 231 yards,
and struggled early against Georgia allowing 145 yards on the
ground.
What will happen: Penn State's defense and Tennessee's
offense will get all the attention, but Penn State's offense and
Tennessee's defense will also be effective. The real stunner will be
Tennessee's running game, which has all the parts healthy and ready
to roll. it won't outgain Penn State's ground attack, but it'll do
enough to provide the needed balance to keep control of the game.
Two big pass plays will tear it open in the second half..
Line: Tennessee -4.5 ... CFN Prediction:
Tennessee 23 ... Penn State 13