Wisconsin (11-1) vs. Arkansas
(10-3)
Jan. 1st,
1:00 p.m. ET, ABC
Get
Tickets for the Capital One Bowl |
Get more picks for this
game
Capital One Bowl
Player Profile: Arkansas LB Sam Olaubutu, team bowl history and more
Is Wisconsin actually any good? Is
Arkansas the real deal, or did it just get hot for a few big games?
How is it that a Big Ten team can go 11-1 and still be such a
complete and total mystery, and can the Hogs prove that it really
was one of the nation's best teams?
For several reasons, this should be one of the most interesting non-BCS
games generating plenty of buzz due to all the excitement and
anticipation surrounding both teams. The Badgers and Hogs should be
loaded for bear next season with the bulk of the starters returning
highlighted by star running backs P.J. Hill and Darren McFadden. The
best might really be yet to come for two teams that should be in the
2007 preseason top ten.
|
|
National
Rankings |
|
Wisconsin |
Arkansas |
|
Total Offense |
|
26th 387.50 ypg |
31st 378.77 ypg |
|
Total Defense |
|
4th 243.50 ypg |
33rd 307.23 ypg |
|
Scoring Offense |
|
20th 30.25 ppg |
22nd 30 ppg |
|
Scoring Defense |
|
3rd 11.92 ppg |
30th 18.38 ppg |
|
Run Offense |
|
25th 175.58 ypg |
4th 228.23 ypg |
|
Run Defense |
|
23rd 105 ypg |
47th 123.77 ypg |
|
Pass Offense |
|
50th 211.92 ypg |
105th 150.54 ypg |
|
Pass Defense |
|
2nd 138.50 ypg |
38th 183.46 ypg |
|
Turnover Margin |
|
52nd 0.08 |
85th -0.38 |
|
Wisconsin
at B. Green
W 35-14
Western Ill.
W 34-10
SDSU
W 14-0
at Michigan L 27-13
at Indiana
W 52-17
Nwestern
W 41-9
Minnesota
W 48-12
at Purdue
W 24-3
Illinois
W 30-24
Penn State W 13-3
at Iowa W 24-21
Buffalo
W 35-3 |
Arkansas
USC L 50-14
Utah State
W 20-0
at Vandy
W 21-19
Bama
W 24-23 2OT
at Auburn W 27-10
SE Miss. St
W 63-7
Ole Miss
W 38-3
UL Monroe
W 44-10
at S Car.
W 26-20
Tennessee
W 31-14
at Miss St
W 28-14
LSU L 31-26
SEC Championship
Florida L 38-28 |
|
Position
Ratings
relative to each
other |
|
W |
5
highest
1 lowest |
A |
|
4 |
Quarterbacks |
2 |
|
5 |
RBs |
5 |
|
3.5 |
Receivers |
3.5 |
|
4.5 |
O
Line |
4.5 |
|
3.5 |
D
Line |
4 |
|
4 |
Linebackers |
4 |
|
4.5 |
Secondary |
3 |
|
3.5 |
Spec
Teams |
3 |
|
4.5 |
Coaching |
4 |
|
Wisconsin's season
started in Orlando in early 2006 when it pulled off one of the
stunners of the bowl season beating Auburn 24-10 in the Capital One
Bowl. Barry Alvarez passed the torch to Bret Bielema, who cranked
out the second 11-win season in school history and is in position
for the with 12-win campaign.
Yes, Wisconsin's defense is the real deal and yes, Hill is one of
the nation's best backs, but it didn't hurt to have a squishy soft
schedule with no Ohio State and a non-conference slate that you and
ten friends could've gotten through unscathed (Bowling Green,
Western Illinois, San Diego State and Buffalo). There were only four
wins over bowl teams, and Minnesota, Purdue and Iowa weren't exactly
knocking down the door to Glendale.
Along with a 13-3 win over Penn State, the one true test was at
Michigan, but that came in the Big Ten opener before the young
receiving corps started to jell. The defense held Mike Hart to 91
yards, one of his lowest outputs of the year, and picked off Chad
Henne three times, but two big plays to Mario Manningham, and no
passing game whatsoever, were too much to overcome.
How high is too high to finish? An impressive win, and a few breaks
the right way, and a final number two ranking isn't totally out of
the question. But Arkansas isn't going to be a pushover.
Expected to be a year away from becoming something special, Houston
Nutt's young, young, young squad was one of the shockers of the
season winning the nasty SEC West before losing to Florida 38-28.
After the 50-14 opening day home loss to USC, a close call against
Vanderbilt, and a gift from the kicking gods double-overtime win
over Alabama didn't exactly get Hog fans running out to buy their
SEC Championship game tickets, and then came the road trip to
Auburn.
With the way these two teams run the ball, it could be one of the
fastest bowl games of the season. And one of the best.
Players to watch: Darren McFadden finished second in
the Heisman race and will be one of the favorites going into 2007
after tearing off 1,558 yards, 15 touchdowns, catching 11 passes
with a score, and throwing for three touchdowns.
Big, fast and versatile, McFadden can do it all,
but he'll also be marked man number one for the Badger defense that
allows just 105 yards per game.
With 219 tackles over the last three seasons, Wisconsin's Mark
Zalewski has been a machine in the middle. Quick enough to play
on the outside and tough enough to handle himself well against any
guard, it'll be his job to hold his ground and not allow McFadden or
Felix Jones to see too much daylight up the gut.
The most interesting one-on-one matchup could be Arkansas WR
Marcus Monk against UW's Jack Ikegwuonu.
Coming off a suspension, Ikegwuonu is one of the few corners big
enough and physical enough to handle the 6-6 Monk, especially in the
red zone. The 6-1, 200-pound sophomore isn't a burner, but he can
hit and isn't afraid to mix it up; he won't be shoved around by
Monk, who was an unstoppable scoring machine over the second half of
the season with eight touchdowns over the final six games.
While QB
John Stocco is back and healthy after missing the last two games
of the regular season with a shoulder problem, the Badger offense
revolves around P.J. Hill, who tore off a tough 1,533 yards
and 15 touchdowns. While he wasn't quite the same late in the year
after suffering a neck stinger, he was still productive as a steady
force with Stocco out. He's a good receiver, but he's at his best
when he gets up a head of steam.
Wisconsin
will win if...
it plays Badger ball and pounds,
pounds and pounds some more. This is a relatively diverse offense
that can throw effectively with the veteran Stocco playing better
and better as the season went on, but this is a game for the
242-pound Hill and his front five. Joe Thomas, Andy Kemp, Marcus
Coleman, Kraig Urbik and Eric Vanden Heuvel average close to 320
pounds per man, while the backups are just as big. The Arkansas run
defense was average at best all season long, and it didn't even face
anyone who could line up and smash it in the mouth. The Hog defense
front has decent size, but the linebackers aren't that big and will
have have to be physical from start to finish.
Arkansas will win if... Casey Dick is
efficient. He doesn't have to throw for 300 yards and four touchdown
passes, but the sophomore has to be effective on third downs, make
plays when he rolls out, and not turn the ball over. He appeared to
be the answer late in the year taking over for a struggling Mitch
Mustain and coming up with great games in wins over South Carolina
and Tennessee, but then he fell off the map bottoming out with a
three-of-17 performance in the loss to LSU. He's far from a polished
product, but against the nation's number one pass efficiency
defense, he'll have to play like one.
What will happen: On paper, this is an awful matchup for
Arkansas, while Wisconsin should thank its stars it didn't draw LSU.
The Badger defense is sound, quicker than it gets credit for, and
tremendous against the pass and solid against the run, while the
offense should be able mix it up and move without much of a problem
on the average Hog D. However, UW put up its numbers against some
awful teams. The offense wasn't always consistent and the defense
didn't have to do much against middling attacks. On the flip side,
you don't get to the SEC title game like Arkansas did without being
able to overcome some deficiencies. Even so, Arkansas doesn't have a
quarterback to take the pressure off McFadden and Jones, while the
Badgers have Stocco back. The senior quarterback will be the
difference.
Line: Arkansas -1 ... CFN Prediction:
Wisconsin
27 ... Arkansas 17
