USC (10-2) vs. Michigan (11-1)
January 1st,
5:00 p.m. ET, ABC
Get
Tickets for the Rose Bowl |
Get more picks for this
game
Rose Bowl
Player Profile: Michigan DT Alan Branch, team bowl history and more
Have two teams ever been more
disappointed to be in the Rose Bowl?
Even with the new BCS Championship game in place, the Rose Bowl is
still the most revered, most prestigious bowl out there, at least in
name, and it even has the first traditional Big Ten vs. Pac 10
matchup since 2004 when USC, who was grouchy then after being left
out of the national championship, beat Michigan 28-14. Of course,
it's not quite like the old days since the Big Ten champion isn't
playing, but it's still a clash of titans for the right to likely
finish second in the final rankings. Of even more interest, this
might be a preview of the 2008 national championship.
|
|
National
Rankings |
|
USC |
Michigan |
|
Total Offense |
|
26th 397.92 ypg |
33rd 374.92 ypg |
|
Total Defense |
|
23rd 293.75 ypg |
6th 254.08 ypg |
|
Scoring Offense |
|
20th 30.33 ppg |
22nd 30.17 ppg |
|
Scoring Defense |
|
12th 14.92 ppg |
8th 14.58 ppg |
|
Run Offense |
|
59th 134.67 ypg |
11th 189.17 ypg |
|
Run Defense |
|
17th 97.67 ypg |
1st 43 ypg |
|
Pass Offense |
|
17th 253.25 ypg |
75h 185.75 ypg |
|
Pass Defense |
|
56th 196.08 ypg |
75th 211.08 ypg |
|
Turnover Margin |
|
43rd 0.25 |
2nd 1.25 |
|
USC
at Arkan.
W 50-14
Nebraska
W 28-10
at Arizona
W 20-3
at Wash St W 28-22
Wash.
W 26-20
Arizona St
W 28-21
at Oreg St
L 33-31
at Stanford
W 42-0
Oregon
W 35-10
California
W 23-9
N. Dame
W 44-24
at UCLA
L 13-9 |
Michigan
Vanderbilt
W 27-7
Central Mich
W 41-17
at N Dame
W 47-21
Wisconsin
W 27-13
at Minn.
W 28-14
Michigan St
W 31-13
at Penn St W 17-10
Iowa
W 20-6
Nwestern
W 17-3
Ball State
W 34-26
at Indiana
W 34-3
at Ohio State L 42-39 |
|
Position
Ratings
relative to each
other |
|
USC |
5
highest
1 lowest |
M |
|
4 |
Quarterbacks |
4 |
|
5 |
RBs |
5 |
|
5 |
Receivers |
5 |
|
4 |
O
Line |
5 |
|
4 |
D
Line |
5 |
|
5 |
Linebackers |
4.5 |
|
4 |
Secondary |
3.5 |
|
4 |
Spec
Teams |
4 |
|
5 |
Coaching |
5 |
|
Michigan didn't
exactly come out of nowhere to go on its fantastic run, but this was
a make-or-break season for head coach Lloyd Carr after struggling
against Ohio State and losing four of his last five bowl games. The
perception was that Michigan football had slipped from the ranks of
the elite and might be due for some big changes. Those changes came
in the form of new coordinators and a different training regimen and
philosophy that led to a leaner, meaner version of the normally
beefy, button-down Wolverines.
The Michigan season kicked off in full flight with a dominant 47-21
win at Notre Dame, which wasn't as close as the final score might
indicate, followed up by a solid 27-13 win over Wisconsin for the
Badgers' only blemish of the year. Helped by a stifling defense and
a steady offense, the Woverines rumbled through the regular season
only getting pushed a bit by Penn State, and of all teams, Ball
State, before the classic 42-39 loss to Ohio State that still left
fans wanting more.
Of course, the season was defined by a major snubbing by the voters
who didn't want to see a Buckeye-Wolverine rematch and forced the
issue by putting Florida in the national title game. If Michigan is
the real deal, it overcomes the disappointment and proves to
everyone that it is absolutely, positively, the second best team in
the nation against a USC that's a year away from being back to
USC again.
Without Reggie Bush, LenDale White, and Matt Leinart, the Trojans
didn't have quite the same pop they have over the previous few
years. Even so, with one of the fastest defenses head coach Pete
Carroll had ever fielded, and a strong passing game helped by the
best receiving corps in America, the Trojans got into a position to
play in its third straight national title game.
And then came the Bruins.
A fired up UCLA team sacked and pressured its way into a 13-9 win
over USC to throw the national title picture into chaos. Before
that, the Trojans were cruising along with dominant wins over
Oregon, Cal and Notre Dame to all but erase memories of a 33-31 loss
at Oregon State. Partly because of the talent and partly because it
was being given the benefit of the doubt for several good
post-season performances, USC was being shoved into the national
title path before it was fully seasoned.
The running game still needs work, QB John David Booty could use a
bit more time, and the team has to learn how to win every close
game. Even so, this is one of the most talented teams in America,
and one of the most resilient, overcoming the loss of star-power and
dealing with several injuries to have a great season. A win over
Michigan would set the wheels in motion for what could be a
phenomenal 2007.
Let's be honest here. The average college football fan has as much
interest in watching the Lifetime New Year's Day movie marathon has
he does this year's Orange or Fiesta bowls; the Rose is the one
everyone's waiting for before the Buckeyes and Gators get their say.
The BCS Championship will get a week of hype all to itself. This
will be more than just the appetizer.
Players to watch: Michigan CB Leon Hart, take two.
Considered to be a potential top five draft pick with his playmaking
skills, speed and athleticism, he had an off game in the loss to
Ohio State slipping all over the place and struggling in wrapping
up. While he's not going to tumble off the draft boards with a bad
game against USC, he can make himself a whole bunch of money, and
can be the team's key defensive playmaker, if he can keep Dwayne
Jarrett or Steve Smith out of the gameplan.
Jarrett, a junior, is also on a bit of a salary drive with first
round potential. He's big, fast, tough, and has become more
consistent. He was Leinart's go to guy and clutch playmaker, and
then he grew into something truly special on the way to becoming the
Pac 10's all-time leader in touchdown catches helped by ten scoring
grabs this year despite battling through injuries.
Even if Michigan wants to double cover Jarrett, Smith demands
full-time attention. The team's leading receiver this year with 64
grabs for 975 yards and eight scores, highlighted by an 11-catch,
258-yard, two touchdown day against Oregon State and an 11-catch,
186-yard, two score day against Washington State, Smith would be the
featured, All-America star on just about any other team. Throw
Patrick Turner in the mix, and USC has more receiving weapons
than any one team should have.
How do you stop the USC targets? Get to John David Booty.
UCLA disrupted the timing of the USC passing game and won. Michigan
will try the same formula with LaMarr Woodley, a hybrid of
outside linebacker and defensive end with the pass rushing burst to
be a regular in the backfield and the overall athleticism to hang
with most tight ends, if needed, in the passing game. While he was
named the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year and is a hot NFL
prospect, he hit the wall over the final few games of the year and
was nearly non-existent in stretches as a pass rusher against Ohio
State. Michigan needs him to shine from snap one.
Woodley, RB Mike Hart, QB Chad Henne and WR Mario
Manningham are the household names, but the wild card is senior
Steve Breaston, who led the team with 51 catches used as a
pure possession target. While he needs to find the holes in the USC
secondary with most of the attention paid to Manningham and
Adrian Arrington on the outside, his real worth should be in
other areas. A bust, at least when it comes to potential, as a
receiver, Breaston has been phenomenal returning kicks in the last
two bowl games taking six kickoffs for 221 yards, to go along with
77 yards and a touchdown on three catches, in the loss to Texas in
the 2005 Rose Bowl. He returned four kickoffs for 146 yards and
seven punts for 72 yards against Nebraska in last year's Alamo Bowl
and is overdue for another breakout.
USC
will win if...
it doesn't screw up. Michigan is
known for its defense, the running of Hart, and the big plays early
in the year from Manningham, but it got within shouting distance of
the national title by not making mistakes and doing all the little
things right. It didn't commit a lot of penalties, led the nation in
fewest turnovers lost with a mere ten, and also led the country in
third down defense allowing teams to convert just 27% of the time.
The Wolverines might not blow it with a lot of errors, and USC can't
necessarily force Michigan mistakes, so the Trojans have to be
nearly perfect in all phases. Michigan is fast, athletic and
talented. USC is faster, more athletic, and more talented.
The USC defense has to do what no one else has been able to and keep
Hart in check. It's not like Henne and the Wolverine passing game
can't crank out yards in bunches, but they haven't had to carry the
offense on a consistent basis. They work best when they catch
defenses cheating up to stop Hart and then, at least early in the
year, hit home runs with Manningham. The deep, speedy, and talented
Trojan linebackers have to swarm and make Henne try to win the game.
Michigan will win if... it gets to Booty. Troy Smith picked the Michigan secondary apart when he
had time, and Booty can do the same.
USC actually outsacked UCLA in the loss, but the Bruins
front four got consistent pressure and threw the passing game off
track. The Wolverines have to get as much of a push as possible up
front and has to smack Booty even when he gets his throws off. No,
they don't have to be dirty, but they do have to get to him enough
to make him hear footsteps every time he drops back.
While the Michigan D has to worry about getting a consistent pass
rush, it also has to get its elite run defense back on track. Ranked
first in the nation throughout the season giving up just 43 yards
per game, if it holds USC under 100, it'll likely get the win. USC
is 10-0 when it ran for 100 yards or more and 0-2 when it didn't
gaining just 86 yards against Oregon State and 55 against UCLA.
What will happen: It's USC and Pete Carroll in a bowl game
vs. Michigan and Lloyd Carr. As good as the Wolverines and the
coaching staff might be, who would you rather have? Of course the
Trojans know they have to protect Booty at all costs. Of course they
know they have to make adjustments from the USC game. The time off
between games helps USC more than Michigan since they needed to make
more adjustments and was more banged up, even though Michigan had
plenty of work to do after the Ohio State loss. USC will get Booty
time, he'll pick apart the Michigan secondary, and USC will finish
the season number two in a hard-fought classic.
Line: Michigan -2 ... CFN Prediction:
USC 31 ...
Michigan 27
Get
Tickets for the Rose Bowl |
Get more picks for this
game
Rose Bowl
Player Profile: Michigan DT Alan Branch, team bowl history and more