Wake Forest (11-2) vs. Louisville (11-1)
January 2nd,
8:00 p.m. ET, Fox
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What about an eleven-win season and an ACC championship doesn't the
world get?
All Wake Forest has done is answer every challenge and shut up every
critic with one of the most amazing seasons since Northwestern's
Rose Bowl run in 1995, but the Orange Bowl seems like it has the
potential to be one of the biggest duds of the bowl season.
Why is this still such a shock? For one, it's the first double-digit
win year in the program's history. Second, it's hard to really
believe the team can still win when its averaging just over 300
yards per game, has no passing attack, and is still, well, Wake
Forest.
 |
|
National
Rankings |
|
Wake Forest |
Louisville |
|
Total Offense |
|
98th 301.23 ypg |
2nd 476.83 ypg |
|
Total Defense |
|
39th 312.15 ypg |
41st 315.33 ypg |
|
Scoring Offense |
|
74th 22.23 ppg |
3rd 38.92 ppg |
|
Scoring Defense |
|
10th 14.69 ppg |
19th 16.58 ppg |
|
Run Offense |
|
44th 152.92 ypg |
10th 190.33 ypg |
|
Run Defense |
|
22nd 104.31 ypg |
21st 104.25 ypg |
|
Pass Offense |
|
107th 148.31 ypg |
7th 286.50 ypg |
|
Pass Defense |
|
72nd 207.85 ypg |
75th 211.08 ypg |
|
Turnover Margin |
|
5th 1.08 |
52nd 0.08 |
|
Wake Forest
Syracuse
W 20-10
Duke
W 14-13
at Conn.
W 24-13
at Ole Miss W 27-3
Liberty
W 34-14
Clemson L 27-17
at NC State W 25-23
at No. Car. W 24-17
Boston Coll
W 21-14
at Florida St W 30-0
Virginia Tech L 27-6
at Maryland W 38-24
ACC Championship
Georgia Tech W 9-6 |
Louisville
Kentucky
W 59-28
at Temple
W 62-0
Miami W 31-7
at Kansas St
W 24-6
at MTSU
W 44-17
Cincinnati
W 23-17
at Syracuse
W 28-13
W Virginia
W 44-34
at Rutgers
L 28-25
South Florida
W 31-8
at Pitt
W 48-24
Connecticut
W 48-17 |
|
Position
Ratings
relative to each
other |
|
WF |
5
highest
1 lowest |
UL |
|
3 |
Quarterbacks |
5 |
|
3 |
RBs |
4 |
|
3.5 |
Receivers |
4.5 |
|
5 |
O
Line |
4 |
|
3 |
D
Line |
4 |
|
4 |
Linebackers |
3.5 |
|
3.5 |
Secondary |
3 |
|
5 |
Spec
Teams |
3 |
|
5 |
Coaching |
5 |
|
The team has gotten
the job done with a great defense that seems to get every bounce its
way, and makes every big play needed, to go along with an amazing
field goal kicker and an opportunistic offense that runs the ball
effectively behind a tremendous offensive line, but it's going to
take something special to pull this one off.
There's one thing missing from all the teams Wake Forest has played
in its improbable year: an offense.
The only team in the ACC that can move the ball is Clemson, and the
Demon Deacons ended up losing to the Tigers in a crushing fourth
quarter collapse. Boston College ranks 47th in the nation in total
offense, Florida State 73rd, Georgia Tech 78th, and it only gets
worse from there.
Louisville has the nation's second ranked offense averaging 477
yards per game.
The Cardinals haven't had problems moving the ball all season long
except in the loss at Rutgers, and even then they came within an
eyelash of pulling the win off that, had they done it, would've put
them in Glendale to face Ohio State for the national title.
While they backed into the Orange Bowl after Rutgers lost to West
Virginia in the regular season finale, no one's questioning their
inclusion in the BCS. This is an explosive team loaded with weapons
all over the place, while the defense has done just enough not to
screw things up.
Considering Wake Forest hasn't scored more than 38 points in any
game this year and Louisville averages 39 points per game, this
might seem like a blowout waiting to happen, but that's what
everyone assumed would happen throughout the year and the Demon
Deacons always came through. Would a win over Louisville finally
convince the non-believers that this team can actually play? Maybe,
but even a hard-fought, close loss should do the trick.
The ACC could use the win after going 0-4 in the Orange Bowl since
the BCS era began. This is supposed to be the showcase game for the
conference, and to lose to the Big East, even against a powerhouse
of an offensive team like Louisville, would only prove how the gap
has been closed between the two leagues. Considering the bitter
feelings the Big East has for the ACC for raiding the marquee teams,
a win would be sweet. A blowout win would even be more enjoyable.
It's the best story of 2006 vs. a team who has finally arrived on
the national stage. For all those hoping for a good game, maybe the
clock won't strike midnight just yet.
Players to watch: Is this Brian Brohm's last game in
a Louisville uniform? While the general consensus is that Notre
Dame's Brady Quinn will be the first quarterback taken, if Brohm
were to turn pro after his junior year he might be taken soon after
and could go in the top ten depending on how hot a prospect Ohio
State's Troy Smith becomes in the off-season and if LSU's JaMarcus
Russell leaves early. A tough player with miraculous healing powers,
Brohm might not want to roll the dice with one more year (especially
after seeing how Michael Bush's calculated gamble backfired) and
could use the Orange Bowl as his big showcase. He's big, mobile in
the pocket, has every throw in the book, and is very, very smart.
When you hear the term "manage the game," no one does that better
than Brohm.
Also thinking about leaving early as a redshirt sophomore is 6-6 WR
Mario Urrutia, who has the speed to go along with his
unmatched size. While still considered a bit of a raw commodity by
the pros, he has first day talent. All indications are that he'll be
back at the U of L along with running mate Harry Douglas, who
led the team with 60 catches for 1,100 yards and six touchdowns
getting hot down the stretch with 16 grabs for 349 yards and five
touchdowns over the final three games. While he doesn't provide
matchup problems like Urrutia, Douglas can be equally dangerous.
To stay with the Cardinals, Wake Forest must get the best
performance of the season out of its secondary, particularly corners
Alphonso Smith and Riley Swanson. These two can move,
but they're not all that big and had mega-problems with Georgia
Tech's Calvin Johnson in the ACC title game giving up eight catches
for 117 yards. Brian Brohm is not Georgia Tech QB Reggie Ball; he'll
be accurate on a consistent basis, so Smith and Swanson, along with
safety Josh Gattis, will be in the spotlight all game long.
Offensively, Wake Forest QB Riley Skinner has to be effective
on third downs. The Demon Deacons can't win a firefight, but it can
win if its offense can keep the chains moving with an effective
running game and an accurate day from Skinner. The freshman stepped
in after starter Ben Mauk got injured and completed 66% of his
throws and rarely made mistake with only four picks with two coming
in the win over Boston College. While he doesn't run much, he
doesn't take sacks and gets time to work behind Steve Vallos
and the ACC's most effective offensive line. If Skinner stinks, this
will be an ugly blowout.
Wake Forest
will win if... the formula holds.
Yeah, the offense will have to open it up a bit and the defense
needs to turn its game up a notch, but this is the ACC champion and
it's good enough to win this game. Everything just has to go right.
The Demon Deacons committed fewer than five penalties a game for
around 45 yards, lost a mere 15 turnovers on the year, netted over
38 yards per punt (ninth in the nation), got every big kick from Sam
Swank, and ran the ball when it had to.
The D has to force at least three turnovers. Cincinnati kept it
close against U of L with three takeaways and holding on to the ball
for 36:43. Syracuse had the ball for 31:54 and forced three
turnovers and made it a game. Wake Forest can't beat Louisville
straight up and needs to be error-free and control every aspect of
the game. It can do it.
Louisville will win if... it gets up right away
and the run defense is at least decent. This is an awful matchup for
Wake Forest. Louisville's defensive front seven is quick enough and
tough enough to hold its own against the Demon Deacon running game,
while passing game is way too effective and diverse to be kept under
wraps. If Skinner has to throw 30 times to try to mount a comeback,
it's not going to be pretty.
The only times the Wake offense exploded was when the ground game
rumbled rumbled tearing off 296 yards against Maryland and 240
against Ole Miss. 31 yards against Clemson ... loss. 62 against
Virginia Tech ... loss. 57 against Duke ... miracle win, should've
been a loss. 91 yards against Georgia Tech ... a 9-6 win. Get up
14-0 right off the bat, keep the Wake Forest running game from going
nuts, go home a winner of a BCS game.
What will happen: For the umpteenth time this year, Wake
Forest doesn't have the manpower to win a game like this. It's a
very, very good team that will play its heart out, but it doesn't
have the type of defense that can take away all the Louisville
weapons. That doesn't mean the upset can't happen. Boston College
threw for 402 yards on the Demon Deacons and even after giving away
two late turnovers, is still trying to figure out how it came out
with a loss. Expect the machine to explode. The Wake offense will be
creative and do everything possible to get its playmakers in space,
and it does have playmakers, but it won't be enough.
Line: Louisville -9 ... CFN Prediction:
Louisville
27 ... Wake Forest 17
Get
Tickets for the Orange Bowl |
Get more picks for this
game
FedEx Orange Bowl
Player Profile: ... Amobi Okoye team bowl history and more