Notre Dame (10-2) vs. LSU (10-2)
January 3rd,
8:00 p.m. ET, Fox
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Can Notre Dame finally get a win over a
top team?
It's become easy to dump on the Irish after everyone jumped
screaming off the bandwagon after a 44-24 loss to USC, but the team
is still 10-2, it still has wins this year over Georgia Tech, Penn
State and UCLA, and it still has a well-coached, explosive offense
with NFL first-round talent in the passing game.
But for all the hype, all the exposure, and all the attention over
the last two seasons under Charlie Weis, the program is still
looking to to prove it deserves to be at the big boy table without
being gift-wrapped a BCS bid in a sweetheart of a deal.
|
|
National
Rankings |
|
LSU |
Notre
Dame |
|
Total Offense |
|
18th 404.17 ypg |
22nd 398 ypg |
|
Total Defense |
|
2nd 238.75 ypg |
45th 320.5 ypg |
|
Scoring Offense |
|
10th 33.08 ppg |
12th 32.42 ppg |
|
Scoring Defense |
|
4th 12.5 ppg |
57th 22.42 ppg |
|
Run Offense |
|
37th 159.17 ypg |
76th 124.25 ypg |
|
Run Defense |
|
15th 93.25 ypg |
50th 127.83 ypg |
|
Pass Offense |
|
3rd 145.5 ypg |
10th 273.75 ypg |
|
Pass Defense |
|
3rd 145.5 ypg |
50th 192.67 ypg |
|
Turnover Margin |
|
61st 0.00 |
32nd 0.42 |
|
LSU
UL Lafayette W 45-3
Arizona
W 45-3
at Auburn L 7-3
Tulane
W 49-7
Miss State
W 48-17
at Florida
L 23-10
Kentucky
W 49-0
Fresno State
W 38-6
at Tenn W 28-24
Alabama
W 28-14
Ole Miss
W 23-20OT
at Ark.
W 31-26 |
Notre Dame
at Ga Tech W 14-10
Penn State
W 41-17
Michigan L 47-21
at Mich St W 40-37
Purdue
W 35-21
Stanford
W 31-10
UCLA
W 20-17
at Navy
W 34-14
No Carolina
W 45-26
at Air Force
W 39-17
Army
W 41-9
at USC L 44-24 |
|
Position
Ratings
relative to each
other |
|
LSU |
5
highest
1 lowest |
ND |
|
5 |
Quarterbacks |
5 |
|
3 |
RBs |
4 |
|
5 |
Receivers |
5 |
|
3.5 |
O
Line |
2.5 |
|
4.5 |
D
Line |
4 |
|
4.5 |
Linebackers |
3.5 |
|
5 |
Secondary |
2 |
|
3 |
Spec
Teams |
3.5 |
|
4 |
Coaching |
4.5 |
|
A win over LSU
would end all doubts and question marks.
The Tigers took over the 2006 role from 2005 Auburn as the team
considered the best in the SEC at the end of the year without
actually winning anything. Blame the schedule as they dealt with
four brutal road games going 2-2 against Auburn, Florida, Tennessee
and Arkansas, with chances to have won all four. After losing to the
Gators in the Swamp, they went on a six game tear finishing the year
with one of the nation's best defenses and an exciting offense that
put points up on the board when it had to, but was rarely
consistent.
How much respect has LSU received? It was a battle until the end
between the Rose Bowl and the Sugar Bowl to see who got all the
Tiger fans jacked up to travel anywhere to see their hot team.
There's speed, skill, and athleticism to keep the NFL stocked for
the next several years; can Notre Dame handle it?
Irish QB Brady Quinn will be one of the top three players taken in
the 2007 NFL draft, and might go first overall. Receivers Jeff
Samardzija and Rhema McKnight might go in the first round, and will
definitely be taken in the top 50, and there are assorted other
next-level talents like safety Tom Zbikowski, DE Victor Abiamiri,
and OT Derek Landri. There just aren't enough of them.
While the offense is good enough to put up big numbers with the
passing game, the offensive line hasn't been up-to-snuff against the
better defensive lines, the secondary has been burned way too often,
and there isn't enough overall speed to hang around with the
warp-speed teams like Michigan and USC. Can coaching and Quinn be
enough to overcome the LSU athletes? Sure, if there's a repeat of
last year.
If you remember, Georgia came into the Sugar Bowl, a home game
played in the Georgia Dome since the New Orleans Superdome was being
repaired, and got its doors blown off in the first half by a jacked
up West Virginia. LSU has been hearing for weeks about how it should
run past Notre Dame with ease, so overconfidence could be a bit of
an issue for its home date. At least, that's what Irish fans are
hoping for.
This is an awful matchup on paper for Notre Dame, but that's why
they go through exercise of actually playing the game. One way or
another, a statement will be made.
Players to watch: If the NFL scouts are correct, this might
be the first of several matchups between LSU QB JaMarcus Russell
and Notre Dame's Brady Quinn. It's worth the price of
admission just to watch these two throw with Quinn's arm a
half-click lesser than Brett Favre's, while Russell's right wing is
something from another planet. One flick of the wrist and the Tiger
junior can connect on an out route that 90% of all quarterbacks can
only dream about throwing.
Russell has the size, the athleticism, and the arm to become a first
round draft pick, but he has to prove he can be a winner and clutch
performer in the biggest games. Fair or not, he's been tagged as
being a killer against the inferior teams, and not quite primetime
when the lights are on. Three interceptions against both Florida and
Tennessee, while throwing just one in the other ten games, along
with a key misread late against Auburn, cemented the reputation, and
if he doesn't light up the mediocre Irish secondary like a Christmas
tree, any thoughts of leaving school early might be gone. On the
flip side, if he comes up with a huge game, it could be enough to
propel him into the top 15 in the 2007 draft.
Quinn's career went from fine to oh-my-goodness with the hiring of
Weis two years ago. While not Tom Brady quite yet, Quinn has all the
tools and all the talent to be the type of quarterback an NFL team
can build around for the next ten years. More mobile than he gets
credit for, he's able to run when needed to keep the chains moving,
and when he gets time and is in a rhythm, he's deadly. Now that he's
being seen as a top pick, the scrutiny has been turned up several
notches. He's a product of the system and the coaching, he's too
inconsistent, he hasn't been good in the biggest game ... whatever.
If anything, his 35 touchdown passes, five interceptions, and 3,278
passing yards this season was a testament to just how good he really
is putting up the numbers behind a porous offensive line. Few
big-time quarterbacks were as beaten up as he was. The number one
spot in the draft can be solidified with a big game and a win.
Each team has good pass rushers to try to throw the star
quarterbacks off their respective games. Notre Dame senior Victor
Abiamiri has been a dominant force in the backfield over the
last two years with 18 sacks with the ability to change games in
just a few plays. However, consistency is an issue as he disappears
for too many stretches.
LSU brings the heat from several areas able to get to the
quarterback inside or out. While Chase Pittman and Tyson
Jackson will be certain to know Quinn intimately, it'll be
tackle Glenn Dorsey in the middle who'll likely make the
biggest impact requiring two or three blockers on every play. His
numbers might not be there, but his presence will allow everyone
else to shine.
LSU
will win if...
the defensive back seven can
tackle. Quinn is fantastic at getting the ball to his receivers on
the move, and he's even better when he has time to set his feet and
deliver a strike. The Irish coaching staff will have spent the last
several weeks trying to figure out how to buy Quinn a bit more time
after he was knocked all over the place throughout the year. LSU's
defensive line will still bring the heat, and Quinn will try to make
the quick reads and get the ball out of his hands as soon as
possible. He'll succeed, but if the Tiger back seven keeps the short
passes from turning into back-breaking big plays, the Irish offense
will struggle.
Notre Dame will win if... the safeties are able
to spend all their time in pass coverage. LSU's ground game is
pedestrian at best, so if the Irish linebackers can avoid getting
run over and the safeties don't need to cheat up, the double
coverage on the speedy Tiger receivers will make a night-and-day
difference. The Irish must consistently get to Russell and hurry his
throws. Unlike Quinn, who's great at getting the ball out his hands
in a heartbeat if he knows exactly where he's going with it, Russell
tends to need an extra half-click. LSU relies more on midrange
passes than quick, timing throws, so the better Abiamiri is, the
better Notre Dame chances.
What will happen: In 1985, Marvin Hagler and Thomas Hearns
put on one of the greatest shows in boxing history throwing haymaker
after haymaker, knockout punch after knockout punch in a three round
war. This might be the college football bowl game version, at least
for a few quarters. Notre Dame can't go with the same old gameplan
and try to win this straight up or it'll get its doors blown off
like it did against USC and Michigan. For the Irish to have a shot,
it has to put the ball in the hands of its superstar, Quinn, and let
him throw, throw, and throw some more in a two-minute mode to try to
make this a shootout. As good as Russell and the LSU offense is, it
doesn't want to have to trade home run for home run; the Irish
skills guys are better. By the fourth quarter, the talent of the LSU
defense will finally come through with a few stops to finally let
the offense pull away.
Line: LSU -8 ... CFN Prediction:
LSU 41 ...
Notre Dame 30
Get
Tickets for the Sugar Bowl |
Get more picks for this
game
Sugar Bowl Player
Profile: Notre Dame TE John Carlson team bowl history and more