Western Michigan (8-4) vs. Cincinnati (7-5)
Jan. 6th,
Noon p.m. ET, ESPN
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International Bowl
Player Profile: Western Michigan CB Londen Fryar, team bowl history and more
As the bowl season winds to a close, it
takes something a bit out of the ordinary for a game between Western
Michigan and Cincinnati to stand out in between all the BCS games.
Three things make this worth paying attention to.
For starters,
it's being played in Toronto providing an international flavor for
the aptly named bowl. Second, it's being played at an odd time.
Three days after Notre Dame and LSU square off in the Sugar Bowl,
this will be played as an appetizer for the BCS Championship game a
few days later. And finally, it'll be an interesting experiment in
coaching changes.
|
|
National
Rankings |
|
Western Mich |
Cincinnati |
|
Total Offense |
|
86th 315.5 ypg |
61st 339.92 ypg |
|
Total Defense |
|
11th 269.42 ypg |
30th 304.25 ypg |
|
Scoring Offense |
|
68th 22.92 ppg |
84th 20.58 ppg |
|
Scoring Defense |
|
36th 19.33 ppg |
34th 19.25 ppg |
|
Run Offense |
|
57th 136.92 ypg |
59th 134.25 ypg |
|
Run Defense |
|
5th 71.92 ypg |
27th 107.50 ypg |
|
Pass Offense |
|
85th 178.58 ypg |
53rd 205.67 ypg |
|
Pass Defense |
|
60th 197.50 ypg |
59th 196.75 ypg |
|
Turnover Margin |
|
8th 0.92 |
87th -0.42 |
|
West
Michigan
at Indiana L 39-20
Toledo W 31-10
at Virginia W 17-10
Temple
W 41-7
at Ohio
L 27-20
No Illinois W 16-14
at Ball St W 41-27
East Mich
W 18-13
Miami Univ.
W 27-24
at Cent Mich
L 31-7
at Florida St L 28-20
at Akron W 17-0 |
Cincinnati
E. Kentucky
W 31-0
Pitt L 33-15
at Ohio State L 37-7
at Va Tech L 29-13
Miami Univ.
W 24-10
Akron
W 20-14
at Louisville L 23-17
South Florida W 23-6
Syracuse
W 17-3
at West Va L 42-21
Rutgers
W 30-11
at Conn. W 26-23 |
|
Position
Ratings
relative to each
other |
|
WMU |
5
highest
1 lowest |
C |
|
3.5 |
Quarterbacks |
3 |
|
3 |
RBs |
3.5 |
|
3 |
Receivers |
3.5 |
|
3 |
O
Line |
3 |
|
4 |
D
Line |
3.5 |
|
4 |
Linebackers |
4 |
|
3 |
Secondary |
4 |
|
4 |
Spec
Teams |
3 |
|
4 |
Coaching |
4 |
|
Brian Kelly, the
former head man at Central Michigan, not only took over at
Cincinnati for Mark Dantonio, who left for Michigan State, he's also
coaching the team in the bowl giving him and his staff a jump on
practices and a feel for what he has to work with. With the quick
change in coaching continuity screw things up for a team coming in
on a bit of a roll winning two straight?
The Bearcats were solid in Big East play thanks to a solid defense
and an offense that was clutch, for the most part, when it had to
be. Wins over South Florida and Syracuse were nice, but the team
made a name for itself by pushing Louisville down to the final
seconds in a 23-17 loss and blowing the doors off Rutgers 30-11. The
first loss of the year came to Pitt, but the other four came against
Ohio State, Virginia Tech, Louisville and West Virginia; no shame
there.
Most interesting about the move of Kelly to head man right away will
be his familiarity with Western Michigan, who lost to Central
Michigan 31-7 in the biggest MAC regular season game of the year.
The Broncos lived and died in close games with six decided by eight
points or fewer including a battle in a 28-20 loss to Florida State
and a 17-10 win over Virginia. All about defense and pressure,
leading the nation 42 sacks, this is an aggressive, interesting team
that should be more than a pushover for the Big East.
Forget about all those who'd rather see a week off between the BCS
games and the national title. It's an extra bowl game and a big
starter for the Kelly era in Cincinnati. It should also be a good
game.
Players to watch: Western Michigan is all about getting into
the backfield and hitting the quarterback over and over again, and
no one was better at that than Ameer Ismail with a
nation-leading 17 sacks. The
former running back isn't all that big, but he's a flash into the
backfield when he gets a step on the outside. He made a national
splash with six sacks against Ball State followed up by a three sack
game against Eastern Michigan, and he closed out with two against
Akron. While aggressive, he can be run over and pushed around
against the run.
The key to stopping Ismail and the aggressive Bronco defense will be
how quickly UC starting QB Nick Davila can make his
decisions. This has been Dustin Grutza's team all season
long, but he struggled with interceptions and didn't improve as the
year went on being hampered by various injuries. While this is only
Davila's second start, he's a former JUCO All-American and is hardly
wet behind the ears. The senior makes few mistakes and is a solid
passer, but Kelly has to see what Grutza, a sophomore, can do, so
expect a bit of a rotation.
Whoever's at quarterback will look to all-star tight end Brent
Celek early and often. A decent pro prospect, Celek has good
hands and is a nice route runner to go along with his solid blocking
skills. While he wasn't used nearly as often as he should've been,
especially over the second half of the year, he's too good to not
get the ball in his hands at least five times.
Western
Michigan's offense revolves around RB Mark Bonds, who became
the main workhorse of the offense in the middle of the year with 108
carries over a critical four-game span. He's not a special back, and
he's not a burner, but he's effective at moving the pile and isn't a
bad receiver. However ...
Cincinnati will win if... it's able to keep Bonds in check.
It's no coincidence that WMU's four losses all came on Bonds' four
least productive running days. When he ran for 75 yards or more, the
team won. Having lost Greg Jennings to the Green Bay Packers and
Tony Scheffler to the Denver Broncos, the WMU passing game has been
anything but high-octane. If UC gets up early, this might be over
since the Broncos have only scored more more than 21 points in three
games. Cincinnati's defense is far better than Toledo's, Temple's
and Ball State's.
Western Michigan will win if... it's formula
works. WMU has to get the ground game going, force mistakes with the
pass rush, and don't screw up when it gets opportunities.
Cincinnati's offensive line is average at best, and is nothing
special when it comes to protecting the quarterback. Part of the
problem came fro the quarterbacks holding on to the ball for too
long and occasionally getting nailed behind the line when they tried
to make something happen with their mobility. WMU's defensive front
isn't big, while Cincinnati's line averages over 300 pounds per man.
The Bronco front four has to use its athleticism to stop the run or
the Bearcats will pound it all game long.
What will happen: This is an interesting matchup particularly
because it's not a good one for the heavy favorite. WMU thrives on
making mistakes with its defense, and Cincinnati can't protect its
passers and gives it away far too often. Even so, the Bearcats have
an effective ground game that should neutralize the WMU quickness.
The Broncos might be fifth in the nation in run defense, but no one
outside of Ohio and Central Michigan chose to use the ground game.
Both games were losses. The Bronco offense doesn't do anything well
enough to pull this off.
Line: Cincinnati -8.5 ... CFN Prediction:
Cincinnati
27 ... Western Michigan 13