Florida (12-1) vs. Ohio State (12-0)
January 8th,
8:00 p.m. ET, Fox
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BCS Championship Player
Profile: Ohio State WR Anthony Gonzalez, bowl history & more
It's not Texas vs. USC in the 2006 Rose
Bowl or USC vs. Oklahoma in the 2005 Orange Bowl when it comes to
hype and excitement, and there isn't quite the controversy
surrounding it like there was in 2004 when Auburn was left out of
the mix, but the 2007 BCS Championship Game is a very, very good
matchup worthy of far more hype than it's getting.
Because of the way Florida got into the national title, with the
voters choosing not to give Michigan a second shot at Ohio State,
everyone's assuming it's an inferior team that was sent to Glendale
to give the Buckeyes something to do. This is the champion of the
nation's best conference and a more than worthy contender for the
national title; Florida is not going to be a pushover.
However, the Gators are a bit of a booby prize after USC lost to
UCLA, and with no other viable options other than Michigan. There
isn't a lot of flash, splash or dash winning games with clutch
offense and a tough, athletic defense. In other words, this isn't
the sexiest team around and it isn't one that America was excited to
embrace.
|
|
National
Rankings |
|
Florida |
Ohio
State |
|
Total Offense |
|
21st 398.08 ypg |
15th 409.75 ypg |
|
Total Defense |
|
10th 268.77 ypg |
13th 273 ypg |
|
Scoring Offense |
|
32nd 28.85 ppg |
7th 36.33 ppg |
|
Scoring Defense |
|
6th 13.46 ppg |
2nd 10.42 ppg |
|
Run Offense |
|
36th 160.31 ypg |
18th 180.08 ypg |
|
Run Defense |
|
6th 74.46 ypg |
16th 93.50 ypg |
|
Pass Offense |
|
26th 237.77 ypg |
33rd 229.67 ypg |
|
Pass Defense |
|
51st 194.31 ypg |
29th 179.50 ypg |
|
Turnover Margin |
|
47th 0.23 |
9th 0.92 |
|
Florida
So Miss W 34-7
UCF
W 42-0
at Tenn.
W 21-20
Kentucky
W 26-7
Alabama
W 28-13
LSU W 23-10
at Auburn
L 27-17
vs. Georgia
W 21-14
at Vanderbilt
W 25-19
So Carolina
W 17-16
W. Carolina
W 62-0
at Florida St W 21-14
SEC Championship
Arkansas W 38-28 |
Ohio State
No. Illinois W
35-12
at Texas W 24-7
Cincinnati
W 37-7
Penn State
W 28-6
at Iowa W 38-17
Bo Green
W 35-7
at Mich St
W 38-7
Indiana
W 44-3
Minnesota
W 44-0
at Illinois
W 17-10
at Nwstern
W 54-10
Michigan
W 42-39 |
|
Position
Ratings
relative to each
other |
|
F |
5
highest
1 lowest |
O |
|
5 |
Quarterbacks |
5 |
|
3 |
RBs |
5 |
|
4.5 |
Receivers |
5 |
|
3.5 |
O
Line |
4 |
|
5 |
D
Line |
5 |
|
5 |
Linebackers |
5 |
|
4 |
Secondary |
4 |
|
3.5 |
Spec
Teams |
4.5 |
|
5 |
Coaching |
5 |
|
The defense is
solid and effective rather than spectacular. There isn't a killer
pass rush, there aren't any household names other than, maybe,
defensive back Reggie Nelson, and steady run defense rarely gets a
lot of publicity. The offense isn't one you're probably used to with
a short-to-midrange passing game, no consistent ground attack, and
the college football world just starting to learn about Percy Harvin.
It doesn't help that having the nation's hardest schedule, facing
ten bowl bound teams, made it hard to come up with dominant wins
getting five by seven points or fewer. The only blemish came at
Auburn losing on special teams breakdowns, a late fumble return, and
a controversial fumble by Chris Leak.
All this team does is find ways to win, and with its talent, it's
good enough to pull this off.
Ohio State comes in on a 19-game winning streak after rolling
through the regular season starting off with a preseason number one
ranking, solidifying it with a win at Texas, getting by Michigan in
a 42-39 classic, and finishing up with a Heisman Trophy for Troy
Smith. Because of the ease of most of the wins, many are assuming
the BCS Championship will be a coronation more than an actual fight,
but is the team really that good?
Statistically, yes, averaging 410 yards and 36 points per game
offensively, while allowing a mere 273 yards and 10.42 points per
game. Michigan was the only team to come closer than seven points of
beating the Buckeyes, Illinois lost by seven, and everyone else got
tagged by double-digits. The margin of victory made it easy to keep
OSU number one all season long, but the schedule played a big part.
OSU didn't have to play Wisconsin, got Texas before Colt McCoy got
his feet wet, struggled until late against Penn State, and got a
little too much credit at the time for wins over mediocre teams like
Iowa and Minnesota. Michigan showed that the Buckeyes are beatable,
and if Florida plays up to its capabilities, and plays the "no one
respects us" card to the hilt, this has the potential to be a
classic.
It's Big Ten vs. the SEC. It's a chance for Ohio State to break an
0-7 run against the SEC. It's a chance for Urban Meyer to put a
stamp on his early tenure in Gainesville. It's a chance for the
Buckeyes to prove that they're more than just a very good team in a
down year. It's a chance for the Gators to show that they deserve to
be in Glendale and not New Orleans.
While it won't be an upset if Florida wins, it won't be a stunner if
Ohio State wins in a blowout; it's that intriguing of a matchup, and
whether you agree with it or not, it's the national championship.
Despite what you might believe, it's being settled on the field
between the two most deserving teams in college football.
Players to watch: Just how much will Tim Tebow play?
The precocious Gator freshman quarterback has only completed 21 of
32 passes for 357 yards and four touchdowns with an interception,
and rushed for 430 yards and seven scores as the team's best power
runner, but he's been the spark plug throughout the season and the
catalyst for seemingly every positive momentum swing. While Chris
Leak is the starter and the main man who runs the offense, Tebow
is the better fit to face the athletic, pass rushing Buckeye
defense. The OSU linebackers are frothing at the mouth to get to the
ball on every play and will sometimes overpursue and get caught out
of position. With plenty of time to prepare, Meyer and his staff
should come up with a few option plays to get Tebow on the outside
and not just run him up the gut.
Tebow isn't the only big-time freshman who'll make an impact. Ohio
State's Chris Wells quickly showed off his immense potential
as the big, speedy number two back behind Antonio Pittman.
While he's not exactly a change-of-pace back at a pounding 6-1 and
225 pounds, he can hit the home run if he gets a little bit of room
to move and has been great at getting into the end zone with a
touchdown in each of the final six games of the year. The more
Pittman and Wells are rumbling, the more time Troy Smith will
have to operate the passing attack.
Florida's other star freshman is do-it-all receiver Percy Harvin,
who had his national coming out party in the SEC championship win
over Arkansas with 105 rushing yards, with a 67-yard touchdown run,
to go along with 62 yards and a touchdown on five catches. He
provides the bolt of lightning in the normally controlled passing
attack.
The Gators are going to need Harvin on the outside with just about
everything on the inside certain to be stuffed. Ohio State DT
Quinn Pitcock was, arguably, the nation's best defensive lineman
this season as the true definition of an anchor on the inside.
Strong enough to hold at the point of attack against two and three
blockers, and quick enough to be a regular in the backfield, he's a
top ten caliber NFL draft pick who could change the game from the
start by forcing the Gators to do everything east-west instead of
north-south. That plays into the speed of the Buckeye defensive back
seven.
Ohio State
will win if... Troy Smith gets enough time to look for a
second and third option. While Smith's Heisman highlight reel
included him getting out of jams and making plays with his
athleticism and quick decision-making ability, he won the award
because of what he did when he had time. He has pinpoint accuracy
and an arm to make all the throws, and when he gets four seconds to
find the right target, he'll hit him every time. Even if the Gators
do find some semblance of a steady pass rush, Smith is great at
throwing on the move and will be effective. However, that limits his
options and, as strange as this might sound considering the plays he
makes, limits his creativity. He's even more imaginative, and far
more dangerous, when he's in the pocket and able to set up his
receivers. Florida wants to get the ball out of Smith's hands in a
hurry, so the better the pass rush, the better the Gators will do.
Florida will win if... Chris Leak gets enough
time to look for a second and third option. Not as athletic as Smith
and not nearly as creative when things break down, Leak must get
time to operate or the Florida offense can be painfully stagnant.
The Gators can all but forget about running the ball on the
Buckeyes, despite what Mike Hart and Michigan did in the season
finale, but it should be able to throw on the OSU corners. Malcolm
Jenkins and Antonio Smith will be in the NFL someday, and there's no
questioning their aggressiveness or talent, but Florida's receivers
will push right back and should be able to beat the jams at the line
without a problem. Make Leak hurry, and he'll try to make plays that
aren't there. If OSU gets two picks, it's over.
What will happen: It'll be a better game than you think, and
it's likely not going to be any sort of an offensive shootout
(although, that's what we said about the Michigan - Ohio State
game). The two defensive front sevens are so good, and the NFL
caliber secondaries so talented, that it'll take every ounce of
creativity in the two coaching staffs to generate points. In a game
with such even teams, and they are even, the team with the better
quarterback and better field goal kicker usually wins. That's Ohio
State.
Line: Ohio State --8 ... CFN Prediction:
Ohio
State 27 ... Florida 21
Get
Tickets for the BCS Championship |
Get more picks for this
game
BCS Championship Player
Profile: Ohio State WR Anthony Gonzalez, bowl history & more