Instant Analysis: Independence Bowl

No one in Alabama can blame Mike Shula for this loss.

The Crimson Tide tried a different head coach in a postseason battle against Oklahoma State, but Dixie's Football Pride suffered yet another setback. In a game that might potentially get the people of Tuscaloosa to realize that their program has its limitations, Alabama lost to Mike Gundy's Cowboys on the strength of a field goal with nine seconds left in regulation.

Oklahoma State earned a well-deserved victory that will give the program considerable momentum heading into a 2007 season that is sure to be filled with optimism. But while the boys from the Big XII South won this shootout, the bigger story--in light of Bama's continuing coaching vacancy--remains the Crimson Tide. Bama fans must understand a few realities in the wake of their team's heartbreaking loss in Shreveport.

First of all, Alabama--just as it did throughout the 2006 regular season--played hard. With the exception of the Mississippi State game, the Tide put forth a commendable effort and avoided the easy temptation to go through the motions. Throughout the Mike Shula era, Bama battled. Nothing changed with interim coach Joe Kines in the saddle. This should illustrate that the Tide are--surprise, surprise--young and still learning to grow up. To have expected this ballclub to equal the accomplishments of LSU, Auburn and Florida in 2006 was flatly ridiculous. Hopefully, this loss to Oklahoma State with a coach not named Shula will enable Bama backers to see the unreasonable nature of some of their previous expectations.

Another fact Bama fans need to face up to is that the Tide needed some luck to stay in this game until the very end. A number of Tide supporters simply couldn't praise Shula for Bama's 10-2, Cotton Bowl-winning season in 2005. Why? Bama and Shula got lucky in those games. Receiving good luck, apparently, is a mortal sin in the eyes of some Alabama advocates.

Well, this just in: college football games--being played by teenagers who undergo pronounced chemical surges in front of massive crowds--will involve luck. Ohio State needed some luck to hold off Michigan on November 18. Florida needed some luck to survive South Carolina. Heck, Bear Bryant needed some good fortune to win a few of the six national titles he ultimately tallied in Tuscaloosa. Luck is a core part of college football success. The 1995 Nebraska Cornhuskers might have been the only team in recent college football memory that did not require an appreciable amount of luck on the way to a national title.

Back to this Independence Bowl. For all those who disparaged Mike Shula and his sensational 2005 season on the basis of the "luck charge," it must be said that Joe Kines' crew tied the Cowboys only because Oklahoma State committed a boatload of mistakes, especially a fumble on a kickoff that Bama turned into a touchdown in the fourth quarter. Yes, the Tide scored more points and had better red zone play calling, but the end result was still the same. Luck--along with skill--kept Bama close, and if any Tide fans still think luck has no place in college football, they're in dreamland. Had the Tide won, luck would have played a huge role; yet, one gets the feeling that Joe Kines would have received a lot more credit than Shula did for anything achieved in 2005.

A final reality Bama fans must come to terms with is that Kines, a defensive guru, presided over a poor performance from his defense. Does this mean Kines suddenly knows nothing, and that he shouldn't be given a shot at the permanent head coaching position? Of course not. What the subpar showing from Bama's defense indicates is that football--being a team game--demands that young men learn how to win. During the regular season, Bama played great defense but had little offense, played games close, and won half the time. In this bowl game, the Tide played solid offense but had little defense, played the game close, and--if pitted against Oklahoma State in an extended series of rematches--would have won roughly half the time. In short, nothing fundamentally changed with respect to this Alabama ballclub. It is what it is: a young team that was not going to do great things in 2006, and is set up to achieve something better in 2007.

For anyone who thought Mike Shula was a deficient motivator or a man who severely underachieved in 2006, this loss--with a different coach--should suggest otherwise. Joe Kines is a great football man, and the verdict here is that the delightful gentleman with the homespun wisdom should become Bama's coach, alongside a decorated offensive coordinator the school should pursue. But what's instructive about his loss at the hands of Oklahoma State is that the limitations of a football program extend beyond one man's control. When a team is young at key positions, that's simply how life works sometimes. A fella named Bobby Bowden has had to discover what life feels like with a quarterback who has to take his lumps as a freshman and sophomore. Mike Shula felt many of the same pains in the sophomore seasons of both Brodie Croyle (in 2003) and John Parker Wilson (this year).

The point should be clear enough: just as Bama's 2006 struggles went beyond Mike Shula, so it also stands that this Independence Bowl loss should not be hung on Joe Kines, who actually coached a solid game. Bama is simply a limited program with a diminished reputation. A sober and realistic assessment of issues--as opposed to a fanatical insistence on going 12-1 every single season, regardless of the prowess of programs such as LSU and Florida--is desperately needed throughout the Alabama football family. Maybe this loss to Oklahoma State can usher in a new era of realism in Tuscaloosa.