Rose Bowl
USC (+1) vs Michigan
This line has been bouncing around even almost from the second that the game was announced. And you know what? That's exactly where it should be. Michigan is a slightly better team, but USC generally plays better in bowl games. Michigan might be playing for a national title, but USC plays without any pressure, since they're in the preseason top five at worst, win or lose.
As far as the actual matchup is concerned, I think Michigan enjoys a slight edge, mainly because their line play has been so good. UCLA beat the Trojans by controlling the line of scrimmage, and Michigan is even better in the trenches. Unless USC's skill players really blow up, it's just too much of a difference to overcome.
Michigan 27, USC 24
National Bowl Games
Cotton Bowl
Auburn (-1.5) vs Nebraska
This is a reasonable line, but I lean towards the Cornhuskers. In a non-BCS game against two decent teams, I usually go with the team that isn't disappointed to be there.
Nebraska 24, Auburn 17
Outback Bowl
Tennessee (-4) vs Penn State
Tennessee is a much, much better team than the Nittany Lions, but they also have a long, storied history of blowing low-tier bowl games because they just don't care about them. Still, I'll take the talent edge in this one.
Tennessee 31, Penn State 14
Citrus Bowl
Arkansas (-2.5) vs Wisconsin
This could be a fun game, as these teams are pretty evenly matched. However, my gut says that this is going to be one of those games that will randomly turn ugly becuase one of them just won't show up. Do NOT bet much on this game, trust me on this one.
Arkansas 31, Wisconsin 17
Gator Bowl
West Virginia (-11) vs Georgia Tech
11 points is WAY too much for a bowl game between two decent teams. The Mountaineers are a good team, but whenever lines get this much inflated, bad things happen to the favorites. If you remember my commentary about Clemson-Kentucky (at that time this line was a lot lower), you know where I'm going with this one. Plus, Reggie Ball being out might well be a good thing for this team.
Georgia Tech 31, West Virginia 28
Fiesta Bowl
Oklahoma (-7) vs Boise State
Oklahoma has a lot of talent, but Boise is severely underrated in this game. Adrian Peterson will have to carry his team on his back in order for this not to be close, and I wonder whether he'll be healthy enough to do that.
Boise State 28, Oklahoma 27
Orange Bowl
Louisville (-10.5) vs Wake Forest
I never feel comfortable laying double digits in games like these, but Louisville is still too good to blow this game.
Louisville 31, Wake Forest 21
Sugar Bowl
LSU (-10) vs Notre Dame
LSU is by far a better team than the Irish, but given that absolutely no one believes in Notre Dame, I can't help but feel like there's a good chance of the upset. LSU will win, but it'll be a lot closer than anyone seems to think.
LSU 28, Notre Dame 27
International Bowl
Cincinnati (-7.5) vs Western Michigan
Upset pick, mainly a gut feeling here.
W. Michigan 24, Cincinnati 21
GMAC Bowl
USM (-6) vs Ohio
I know nothing about this bowl or either team. I admit it.
USM 28, Ohio 21
National Championship Game
Ohio State (-7.5) vs Florida
No one thinks the Gators have much of a shot. That is a very, very dangerous thing. Ohio State may be a lot better, but they're far from perfect, and the Michigan game showed that they are very capable of beating themselves when they're too confident. This one should be a good game.
Ohio State 31, Florida 28
Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com