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5 Thoughts - So ... Ohio State or Florida?

CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Jan 7, 2007

Who's going to win the national championship, and why? Each CFNer gives his pick and prediction for the Ohio State - Florida game.

 
Five Thoughts:
Preseason |
Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4
Week 5 | Week 6 |
Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11
Week 12 | Week 13 | Week 14 | Week 15 |
Week 16

And the winner will be ...

By Pete Fiutak   

1.  When taking a test of any sort and you're unsure of an answer, you're told to always go with your first instinct and not to waver. Usually, the more you're tormented, the more you'll subconsciously talk yourself out of what you think is the right call. However, sometimes you have to go with the answer that'll help you sleep better that night.

I can no longer ignore the nagging voice in my head that told me the Florida basketball team, after its second-round game against UW-Milwaukee, was going to win the national title. The voice has been screaming at me all year long that Ohio State is great, but not the be-all-end-all, and that the Big Ten is awful this year. Oh, I know, I know, Wisconsin beat Arkansas and Penn State beat Tennessee, but they pulled those wins off against limited teams (no Hog passing game and no Vol running game) thanks to the defense, while the offenses were more painful to watch than the ads for Grease: You're the One That I Want.  

I believe the Florida running game will be effective after the layoff. I believe the Gator defensive front will swallow up Antonio Pittman and the Buckeye ground attack, while the secondary will frustrate Ted Ginn and Anthony Gonzalez. I believe this will be a low scoring game with the announcers talking about how Florida has the advantage because it's "hanging around" late into the game. I believe Troy Smith will struggle early on and will have a rough time with the most intense pass rush he'll face all year long. I believe that Chris Leak will lead the offense on a terrific two-minute march to get his team in position for the game-winning field goal by spiking it on the Ohio State 17 with four seconds remaining, and I believe ...

Chris Hetland will miss the kick.

Always go with your first answer.

Ohio State 16 ... Florida 14 ( I know, it's different than prediction in the preview. I decided at the last second it'll be a low scoring game.)

And the winner will be ...

By Richard Cirminiello

2
.  Battle-tested Florida has the defensive speed and the inventive head coach to present an early challenge to Ohio State Monday night, but the Buckeyes are precisely and uniquely built for a game of this magnitude. What do you need to win one huge game against a quality opponent? Great leadership? No current coach prepares his team better for a bowl game than Jim Tressel, winner of four straight in the post-season. Stability behind center? No current quarterback is better in big games than Heisman winner Troy Smith. Defense? No current team has given up fewer points than the Buckeyes. Line play? Check and check. Venue? Checkmate. The BCS National Championship game is being played in Arizona, site of a few of Ohio State's biggest conquests in recent years. The Florida D and a couple of energizing plays from freshmen Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin will keep the Gators close through three quarters, but without the threat of a running game, they won't have enough offensively to keep pace with a balanced Buckeye offense that'll control the clock and the tempo of the game. Facing constant pressure, Chris Leak won't be up to the challenge, turning the ball over in the second half as Ohio State pulls away for its second national championship in Tressel's six seasons in Columbus.

Ohio State 30 ... Florida 17

And the winner will be ...

By Matthew Zemek

3.
In a game where mistakes tell the tale, Florida is the team that is more likely to make big mistakes... and more of them.

If OSU commits an early gaffe, though, watch out for Florida. The Gators--like any other underdog in a similar situation--will smell blood and turn the game around with their defense. Urban Meyer's team has the horses to smother Troy Smith... IF it can gain an emotional foothold early on.

But if you had to pick a team that will make fewer mistakes, Ohio State has to have the advantage. Buckeyes, then, by 17 points:

Ohio State 31 ... Florida 14

And the winner will be ...

By John Harris

4. The Gators will find a solid balance between Leak and Tebow, pass and run and trick play and non-trick play – more so than they’ve had all year long.  Offensive coordinator Dan Mullen and Urban Meyer have all the weapons to generate 35+ points against this Ohio State offense, but it’s going to take the right play call at the right time to pull it off.

With that being said, don’t think that Gator WR/RB Percy Harvin won’t get the football – ten touches at a minimum.  He’s the most explosive Gator on either side of the ball and the Gator coaching staff must find different ways to get him the ball to put pressure on the Buckeye linebackers, in particular.  He’s a dynamo in the slot, but keep an eye on him on shotgun runs where he can essentially pick his hole and make you chase him to the end zone.

The defensive key for the Gators is the secondary, led by Ryan Smith at corner and the best defensive player in the nation Reggie Nelson at safety.  Smith won’t be left on an island with Ted Ginn Jr. much in this game, but his ability to break on the football and not allow Ohio State QB Troy Smith to burn him in the passing game is huge in this game.  Nelson just has to make plays all over the field.  Simple, right?  Well, he is a play maker who can change this game with a pick, big hit, forced fumble, blocked kick or touchdown saving tackle as he has all season long.

The Buckeyes won’t deviate from the formula.  A big part of #10, mixed in with Antonio Pittman at running back and a sound defensive performance, sprinkled in with a few big plays from Ginn and Gonzales.  Although head coach Jim Tressel is tremendous in big games, he doesn’t really need his bag of tricks to move the ball effectively on offense in this game.

Smith is the Heisman winner and deserved it, no question, but the overall key to this offense in this game is Pittman’s ability to pound away on the Gator front seven.  The Gator defensive front has been riddled with injury and suspension and having to chase Pittman all over Glendale will wear them down by the fourth quarter.  The tough thing for the Gators is if they stop Pittman, they still have to account for bruising back Chris Wells, who had a game changing touchdown against Michigan.

The Buckeye defense will bottle up Harvin by the fourth quarter and #10 will put the Buckeyes on his back in the second half when it gets tight.  Arizona is good, again, to the Bucks.

Ohio State 28 ... Florida 20

And the winner will be ...

By Michael Bradley

5. We've heard two weeks of fast talk from the Gator crowd, centering around the overwhelming speed of Florida, the SEC and anybody who lives below the Mason-Dixon Line. Guess those Rust Belters will have to find some jet packs or P.F. Flyers if they want to compete in Glendale. Or, they can just throw the relay team of Ted Ginn, Anthony Gonzalez, Troy Smith and Antonio Pittman onto the track and take their chances. A “B” team of Malcolm Jenkins, James Laurinaitis, Marcus Freeman and Brandon Mitchell would probably grab a medal, too. The fact is, Ohio State is pretty darn fast. And talented.

If the Gators think they can beat the Buckeyes by just blazing around the well-manicured field Monday night, they’ll learn some hard truths. Perhaps they are faster, but OSU is a good football team, and since the game will be decided by points, not a stopwatch reading, figure the Bucks to have a pretty good chance. Now, UF could well toast some of the shakier Ohio State coverage men. And that speedy Florida front seven is going to make it tough for the Bucks to run. But for all the talent Chris Leak has and all the incredible offensive wizardry coach Urban Meyer possesses, nobody in blue and orange can measure up to Smith in the leadership and playmaking department. Ever since the middle of last season, when he finally decided to become a quarterback and not a decathlete, Smith has delivered big plays whenever necessary. His legs allow him to make more time for himself to throw, and his toughness allows him to hang in the pocket, even when he knows he’ll get rocked. Florida can keep this close and could win, if OSU coughs it up too much. But this is about Smith and his ability to deliver in pressure situations. In the end, that’s what will win it for the Buckeyes.

Ohio State 24 ...Florida 20

 



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