By
Pete Fiutak
To go or not to go. Tis nobler to return to school for a senior
season than to leave early and get taken late. Even so, it's
impossible to tell a legitimate pro prospect not to come out early
after what happened to Willis McGahee in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl or
Wisconsin's Joe Thomas in last year's Capital One Bowl. If you win
the lottery, you don't sit on the ticket for a year. Some of these
players are going to be instant millionaires while others are making
a big mistake.
My
rule of thumb for pro prospects is this: If your game relies purely
on speed, come out. Every football player needs speed to some
degree, but a receiver, running back and defensive back only has so
many years of blazing speed in them. Any slippage in that top gear,
and you're out of the league. Running backs can only take so many
shots and should come out as soon as humanly possible. Everyone else
should stay in school unless they're a sure-fire first or second
round pick. Here are the early entries so far.
Coming
back, but could've been rich ...
The top five players that chose to return.
1. Brian Brohm, QB Louisville
And with the first pick in the 2008 NFL Draft, the Cleveland
Browns select ...
2. Glenn Dorsey, DT LSU
About ten teams were ticked off about this. Dorsey would've been
a lock for the top 20.
3. Jake Long, OT Michigan
Athletic tackles tend to get snapped up quickly.
4. Andre Woodson, QB Kentucky
His stock was starting to quickly shoot up and might've been a
late first rounder.
5. Keith Rivers, LB USC
The NFL told him he'd have gone in the 2nd round. He'd have been
taken in the top 20. |
Jon Abbate, LB Wake Forest
Projected: Late first day, early second day
Good or bad move? Ehhhh, it depends on how fast he runs at
the combines. His size is going to be an issue, but he's not a
safety. Another year at Wake Forest would've made him a sure-thing
top 100 pick.
Jamaal Anderson, DE Arkansas
Projected: 1st round, top 15
Good or bad move? Great move coming off a big day against
Wisconsin in the Capital One Bowl. a top 20 pick before, now he's
being talked about in the top five.
Antwan Applewhite, DE San Diego State
Projected: Late first day
Good or bad move? A good pass rusher, Applewhite's issue is
his size at just 235 pounds. He projected to be more of an outside
linebacker, but he might get his shot on the outside as a third down
specialist.
Jon Beason, LB Miami
Projected: 3rd round
Good or bad move? Fast, but a bit undersized, he'll likely
get lost in the shuffle in a decent year for linebackers depending
on all the early entries. An injury-filled year might cost him; he
would've been better served coming back.
Ahmad Bradshaw, RB Marshall
Projected: 3rd round
Good or bad move? While he might have played his way into
first round had he stayed for his senior year, he'll be the definition
of a quality pick some time after the second round. He's a speed back
with great hands as a receiver.
Alan Branch, DT Michigan
Projected: Top five
Good or bad move? Good move. The heart-and-soul of the
Michigan defensive front will likely be the first defensive tackle
taken.
Michael Bush, RB Louisville
Projected: Late 1st round, early 2nd round
Good or bad move? Certainly one of the most intriguing
players in the draft, his broken leg should be 100% by the time he has
to show off what he can do. Considered a top 20 pick before the injury,
he can quickly work his way up the board as one of the most unique
players in the draft.
C.J. Gaddis, DB Clemson
Projected: 3rd round
Good or bad move? If he a corner or a safety at the next
level? There's not a whole bunch of buzz about him, but he has the
speed that could make him a second round sleeper.
Ted Ginn Jr., WR Ohio State
Projected: 1st round
Good or bad move? What is he? While teams will fall in love
with his speed and versatility, is he really a true number one receiver
worthy of a first round draft pick, or will he just be a dynamic toy for
an offensive coordinator to play with?
Anthony Gonzalez, WR Ohio State
Projected: 3rd to 4th round
Good or bad move? His inability to do anything or get any
separation against Florida in the BCS Championship Game once Ted
Ginn got hurt killed his draft stock. He's a number three receiver
who'll find a spot on an NFL roster for the next ten years.
Chris Henry, RB Arizona
Projected: Late 2nd to early 3rd round
Good or bad move? He would've been one of the hot backs
coming into 2007, but he'll use a good end of the year to be one of
the more interesting running back prospects. At best, he'll probably
be around the fifth back taken.
Chris Houston, CB Arkansas
Projected: 2nd round
Good or bad move? A fantastic athlete with great cover
skills, he has decent size to go along with his speed. He could be a
first rounder with a little luck.
Brandon Jackson, RB Nebraska
Projected: Late first day, early second day
Good or bad move? Huh? He has the versatility to be a
functional third down back, but he's not exactly the type of back teams
are going to fall over themselves to take in the first 50 picks. He
could've used another year.
Dwayne Jarrett, WR USC
Projected: Top 20
Good or bad move? He'll have to prove right off the bat with
a positive attitude and good work ethic that he's not Mike Williams.
Put it to rest; he's not Mike Williams. His measurables likely won't
be off the charts, but his size and hands will make him a steal
around 20-25.
Calvin Johnson, WR Georgia Tech
Projected: Top five
Good or bad move? He's not going to go number one
overall, but he's a lock to be taken in the top five and possibly
number two. He's generally considered to be the safest top prospect
in the draft.
Charles Johnson, DE Georgia
Projected: 1st round
Good or bad move? While he wasn't consistent this year, he's
a big, talented pass rusher, he'll probably be the fourth or fifth
end taken and will likely go around 20-25.
Rory Johnson, LB Ole Miss
Projected: First day
Good or bad move? The JUCO transfer only played one year at
Ole Miss and was overshadowed by Patrick Willis, but he made plenty
of tackles and showed enough to be a decent prospect. Had he come
back for his senior year, he would've grown into a sta.
Marshawn Lynch, RB California
Projected: 1st round
Good or bad move? Think DeAngelo Williams. Lynch will
be lights out in workouts and start to get in the top ten on several
mock drafts, but come late April, he'll likely fall to the
mid-to-late first round.
Robert Meachem, WR
Tennessee
Projected: Late 1st round to early 2nd
Good or bad move? The wild-card among the receivers, Meachem
could quickly move up into top 15 territory if he blows everyone
away in workouts. The other receiver prospects are talented, but few
have jaw-dropping measurables. Watch Meachem to yo-yo up and down
the mock drafts over the next few months.
Zach Miller, TE Arizona State
Projected: 1st round
Good or bad move? Compared to Todd Heap, he might be
the first tight end taken and could rise up to the top 15 with a
lights-out workout.
Jarvis Moss, DE Florida
Projected: Second round
Good or bad move? It depends on how he comes across in the
workouts and interviews. Moss might be one of the big calls
in the draft. A strong pass rusher who has top 15 talent, some teams
will fall in love with him, some will have him around 50.
Reggie Nelson, S Florida
Projected: 1st round
Good or bad move? He was ready for the next level
last year. He's a big hitter with great coverage skills, and now he
might be a top 15 pick with a little bit of luck. He could play
corner if needed.
Greg Olsen, TE Miami
Projected: Late 1st round, early 2nd round
Good or bad move? While not a special talent, he has good
hands and enough skills to be an exciting late first round pick.
He's a good athlete who did the most he could with the shaky Miami
quarterback play. He probably could've used another year to prove he
can be more of a playmaker.
Adrian Peterson, RB Oklahoma
Projected: Top ten
Good or bad move? He should've been in the NFL two years ago.
With his blend of size, speed, power, drive and work ethic, he's a dream
back who could be a player an offense builds the franchise around. The
only issue is his upright running style and his injury problems over the
last two years.
Antonio Pittman, RB Ohio State
Projected: 3rd round
Good or bad move? Running backs are a dime-a-dozen in the
NFL. Does Pittman do anything special enough to warrant an early round
pick? He has a nice blend of talents who could turn into a good starter
in the right system.
Darrelle Revis, CB Pitt
Projected: 1st round
Good or bad move? With the size, cover skills and tackling
ability, he might be the first corner taken but could end up falling
to the end of the first round.
Sidney Rice, WR South Carolina
Projected: Mid-to-late first round
Good or bad move? He could've used another year, but he's
going to be a near-certain first rounder. He's not in the Calvin
Johnson territory, but he'll likely battle Dwayne Jarrett to be the
number two receiver taken.
Gary Russell, RB Minnesota
Projected: Second day
Good or bad move? The success of Marion Barber and Laurence
Maroney should help Russell, but his inability to find the classroom
at Minnesota, making him ineligible for last year, means he might
have a hard time finding first day draft spot.
JaMarcus Russell, QB LSU
Projected: Top five pick
Good or bad move? The hot player after the bowl season,
Russell went from being on the fence about returning for his senior
year to possibly being the number one overall pick.
Brandon Siler, LB Florida
Projected: 2nd round
Good or bad move? With the right workouts, he could move into
the last first round. His excellent all-around skills and speed
would make him a steal after the 50th pick.
Ryan Smith, CB Florida
Projected: First day
Good or bad move? A good coverman with excellent speed, his
big issue will be size at just 165 pounds. He could be a high riser
over the next few months with a few good workouts.
Luke Smith-Anderson, TE Idaho
Projected: 2nd day
Good or bad move? A former walk-on, he's not fast, but he has
great hands and is an excellent route runner. He might be lucky to
be drafted unless he shows something special in workouts.
Ramonce Taylor, RB Texas
Projected: Second day
Good or bad move? The off-the-field issues in the past,
Taylor has to find a spot somewhere early on as a special teamer and
hope to show something special when he gets his chance in camp.
Lawrence Timmons, LB Florida State
Projected: Mid-to-late first round
Good or bad move? He might end up being the first linebacker
taken. He's tall, big, and very fast for his size. It doesn't hurt
that Florida State linebackers have, for the most part, been
fantastic at the next level.
Darius Walker, RB Notre Dame
Projected: Late first day
Good or bad move? A curious move, he would've been the
featured player in the Irish offense this year. He's not huge and he
hasn't shown anything special, but he could find a niche somewhere
as a third down back. If he can show he might be a productive kick
returner, his stock will rise.
Danny Ware, RB Georgia
Projected: Late first day, early second day
Good or bad move? Someone's going to have to fall in love
with him. He has the measurables, but he hasn't been able to prove
he can stay healthy and had a hard time finding carries. He might be
a good number two back in the right system.
Dwayne Wright, RB Fresno State
Projected: Late first day, second day
Good or bad move? A big, productive runner, he proved his
injuries were in the past with a big season on a bad team. The
former JUCO transfer has nothing left really to show at the
collegiate level, but he has to get some team hot on his potential
as a good number two back.
Eric Wright, CB UNLV
Projected: Late 1st round, early second round
Good or bad move? A great player on an awful UNLV team,
Wright, a former USC transfer, was ready for the NFL last year.