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2006 Pac-10 Season Review, Part One

Mr Pac Ten
Posted Feb 5, 2007


Mr Pac-10 Looks Back at the 2006 Season - Part One

Now that the regular season is done with, it's time to look back on everything that has happened so far.

Part 1: Looking at the preseason predictions , as well as my weekly picks.

How I did:

Overall, I did okay this season. There were definitely some ups and downs in both the preseason picks and the weekly ones, but it still turned out pretty well. The weekly pick accuracy was as follows:

PAC - 10 NATIONAL BAD LINES
SU ATS SU ATS
WEEK 1 7-2 3-4 2-1 2-1
WEEK 2 8-1 4-5 1-2 1-2
WEEK 3 6-2 1-5 2-3 2-3
WEEK 4 5-0 3-2 2-0 2-0
WEEK 5 4-1 4-1 3-2 3-1-1
WEEK 6 5-0 4-1 3-0 2-1
WEEK 7 3-2 3-2 2-1 2-1 2-1
WEEK 8 4-1 4-1 2-1 3-0 1-2
WEEK 9 1-3 1-2 3-0 2-1 1-2
WEEK 10 3-2 3-2 1-2 3-0 1-2
WEEK 11 3-2 4-1 2-0 0-1-1 4-0
WEEK 12 2-3 3-2 2-1 2-1 1-2
WEEK 13 2-1 1-2 0-1 0-1 1-1
WEEK 14 2-1 1-2 3-1 3-1
BOWL WEEK ONE 3-2 1-4 8-6 8-6
BOWL WEEK TWO 0-1 0-1 4-6 5-5
TOTAL 58-24 40-37 40-27 39-26-2 11-10

It's not outstanding, especially the Pac-10 picks, but it is still pretty solid. On to the preseason picks:

2006 Predictions / Results

WEEK BY WEEK RESULTS
Week # MY PREDICTIONS ATHLON PREDICTIONS CFN PREDICTIONS HAIRE PREDICTIONS AZC PREDICTIONS
WEEK 1 1-0 1.0-0.0 1-0 1-0 1-0
WEEK 4 3-1 2.5-1.5 3-1 3-1 2-2
WEEK 5 2-3 3.5-1.5 2-3 3-2 2-3
WEEK 6 3-1 3.5-0.5 3-1 3-1 4-0
WEEK 7 3-2 4.5-0.5 3-2 4-1 4-1
WEEK 8 2-2 2.5-1.5 2-2 2-2 2-2
WEEK 9 2-1 2.0-1.0 2-1 2-1 2-1
WEEK 10 5-0 4.0-1.0 4-1 3-2 4-1
WEEK 11 4-1 3.5-1.5 2-3 3-2 4-1
WEEK 12 2-3 2.0-3.0 1-4 1-4 3-2
WEEK 13 1-1 0.5-1.5 1-1 1-1 1-1
WEEK 14 1-1 1.0-1.0 1-1 1-1 1-1
TOTAL 29-16 30.5-14.5 25-20 27-18 30-15

note: predicted "toss-up" games are indicated by being equal to half a win and half a loss

STANDINGS PREDICTIONS 2006

MY PREDICTIONS ATHLON PREDICTIONS CFN PREDICTIONS SI PREDICTIONS
USC 7-2 USC 8.5-0.5 USC 8-1 USC 9-0
CAL 7-2 CAL 8.5-0.5 CAL 7-2 CAL 8-1
UO 6-3 UO 6.0-3.0 OSU 5-4 ASU 7-2
OSU 5-4 UCLA 6.0-3.0 ASU 5-4 UO 6-3
ASU 5-4 ASU 5.5-3.5 UO 5-4 UCLA 4-5
STAN 4-5 ARIZ 4.0-5.0 WSU 4-5 ARIZ 3-6
ARIZ 4-5 OSU 2.5-6.5 UCLA 3-6 WSU 3-6
UCLA 3-6 WSU 1.5-7.5 STAN 3-6 STAN 3-6
WSU 2-7 STAN 1.5-7.5 ARIZ 3-6 OSU 1-8
WASH 2-7 WASH 1.0-8.0 WASH 2-7 WASH 1-8
TOTAL WINS OFF BY
12 WINS 16 WINS 10 WINS 20 WINS
HAIRE PREDICTIONS AZC PREDICTIONS CFP PREDICTIONS ACTUAL RESULTS
USC 9-0 CAL 8-1 USC 9-0 USC 7-2
CAL 8-1 ASU 7-2 CAL 8-1 CAL 7-2
ASU 6-3 USC 7-2 ASU 7-2 OSU 6-3
UO 5-4 UO 6-3 UO 6-3 UCLA 5-4
UCLA 4-5 UCLA 5-4 UCLA 5-4 ASU 4-5
ARIZ 4-5 ARIZ 4-5 STAN 4-5 UO 4-5
WASH 3-6 WSU 3-6 OSU 2-7 ARIZ 4-5
STAN 2-7 OSU 3-6 ARIZ 2-7 WSU 4-5
WSU 2-7 STAN 2-7 WSU 2-7 WASH 3-6
OSU 2-7 WASH 0-9 WASH 0-9 STAN 1-8
TOTAL WINS OFF BY
14 WINS 14 WINS 22 WINS

Again, it was a solid set of results for me, though not oustanding. Then again, I knew coming in that it would be extremely difficult to replicate last year's performance, when I was only a total of 6 wins off (nearest competitor: 14 wins off) for my standings picks, and tied with Athlon for the best individual game picks. So congratulations are in order for CFN, who beat my standings picks, and both Athlon and AZC (a newcomer this year), who both narrowly beat my game to game picks. Still, 3rd out of 5 for the game picks, and 2nd out of 7 for the standings picks, and close to the champs in each case, is pretty good.

The main surprise for me was how badly Stanford went in the tank, though I had mentioned at the outset that injuries could devastate them (and that, along with horrible locker-room chemistry, was the killer). On the flip side, UCLA's quality of play was a pleasant surprise. While they certainly had growing pains along the way, they also showed that they were an extremely talented team that will be dangerous for the next couple of years as their young players get more experience.

Also, I always like to take a look at which teams were underrated and which ones were overrated by the prognosticators. It should come as no surprise that Oregon State took the cake as the most grossly underrated team, as only two had them even at 5-4, with everyone else setting them at 3-6 or worse (CNNSI had them at 1-8, one of the big reasons their forecast bombed so badly). Wazzu was another underrated case, as only CFN got their record correct, with everyone else picking them too low. On the flip side, there were three teams that were very overrated: Arizona State, Oregon and Stanford. Of these, Stanford flat-out tanked, and Oregon lost ground mainly because they faded at the end, rather than really having something significant wrong with them. But Arizona State is the real example of how the "experts" so often miss the mark. No one had them below .500, and the consensus average was about 6-3. But they failed to meet expecations for much the same reasons that we've seen the past few years: mediocre defense, and no leadership from the sidelines. A flashy offense with star power just isn't enough to overcome those weaknesses.

One fun thing to look at for the season are what I call "triangles", where three teams with similar records all play each other and each win one and lose one (you can think of each team as rock, paper, or scissors if that helps the analogy). What is most interesting about these is how getting them all right or all wrong can easily make or break a picking record. Some examples from this season: Arizona won at Oregon, Oregon won at Arizona State, and Arizona State won at Arizona. Another one: Oregon State won at Washington, Washington won at Washington State, and Washington State won at Oregon State. And another: USC lost at Oregon State, Oregon State lost to Cal (at home), and Cal lost at USC. With a full round robin and a bunch of teams with league records near .500, there are plenty more of these trianges than I have mentioned. It's not all that important, but it can be fun to look at from time to time.

Next up: Interesting Storylines from 2006

Questions, Comments or Suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com

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