2007 March Madness Breakdowns
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West Bracket
No. 16
Florida A&M Rattlers
– MEAC (21-13)
Basically:
Brian Greene scored on a last-second layup to beat Delaware
State to send the Rattlers dancing for
the first time since 2004. Arguably the
worst team in the tournament, A&M was
able to fatten up on an awful conference
with only two teams that finished with
winning seasons after getting bombed on
by several good teams like Florida,
Pitt, Maryland and Illinois. A
first-round win would be among the
all-time tournament shockers.
Strengths: Rebounding. This is an
active, aggressive team that’s good at
getting everyone on the glass. The
defense, at least in MEAC play, was good
at harassing most teams and forcing
inconsistent shooting, especially from
the outside. Despite being relatively
limited on both sides of the court, the
Rattlers do well with what they have.
Weaknesses: The offense can’t
hang on to the ball. With a whopping
18.2 turnovers per game, A&M is was too
careless and gives away way too many
opportunities for a team this small. The
outside shooting is almost non-existent,
and forget about any consistency on the
free throw line.
Players You Should Care About:
6-8, 240-pound senior Rome Sanders is
the team’s leading scorer and a decent
rebounder giving the Rattlers a solid
inside presence, but 6-5 guard Brian
Greene is the real pest on the boards to
worry about. He always finds his way to
the ball and is the team’s best interior
passer. At only 6-0, Leslie Robinson
seems like he should be more of a
passing point guard type of player, but
he’s a good scorer.
Best Wins:
Delaware State (MEAC Championship)
58-56, Delaware State 73-69
Worst Losses: Illinois-Chicago
75-57, Hampton 76-74
Tournament Prediction:
The
honor of being the 65th team in a
tournament of 65.
No. 16.
Niagara Purple Eagles
– MAAC (22-11)
Basically:
Talk about a tale of two seasons, Niagara started 1-6 after
losing six players due to suspension,
and not against a who’s who of
powerhouses, and finished up on an
11-game winning streak including a
second MAAC title in three seasons. This
is a plucky team that’s found ways to
seemingly win every close game,
especially over the last month of the
year, and is used to pressure
situations. Even so, a case could be
made that this will be one of the
tournament’s weakest teams.
Strengths: Scoring, and lots of
it from several different players. Five
Purple Eagles average double figures
with a new star showing up every night.
For not being all that big, they’re
great at getting to the glass with an
aggressive pair of forwards in Charron
Fisher and Clif Brown, along with 6-8,
220-pound J.R. Duffey. This is a
high-octane scoring team that’s used to
getting into shootouts.
Weaknesses: Outside of the three
forwards, there’s no size whatsoever.
There’s almost no defense from any spot
having problems inside, out, blocking
shots, and in any every other way.
Basically, Niagara needs to outbomb
teams to win, and against anyone with an
inside presence, it’ll be in big
trouble.
Players You Should Care About:
It depends on who’s hot. Charron Fisher
is a strong presence and a natural
scorer averaging 21 points and eight
rebounds a game, while guards Lorenzo
Miles and Tyrone Lewis are gunners when
they get in the open. This isn’t a deep
team that goes seven deep, so if there’s
foul trouble up front for Fisher, Brown,
and/or Duffey, it won’t be pretty.
Best Wins:
at Siena (MAAC Championship) 83-79, at
Marist 83-75
Worst Losses: at Fairfield 68-56,
Binghamton 74-66
Tournament Prediction: Niagara will
outgun the Rattlers to get into the real
part of the tournament only to get
obliterated by Kansas.
No. 1 Kansas
Jayhawks – Big 12 (30-4)
Basically:
No big-time
team closed the year hotter than the Jayhawks, who proved how dangerous
they were by piling up huge wins against overmatched Big 12 teams and
came up with a tremendous win over Texas. They did it by overwhelming
teams with a balanced attack, stifling defense and some of the Big 12’s
most predatory players. Simply put, nobody runs from the front better
than Kansas, and if it starts well, the game’s over.
Strengths:
Kansas may
score a lot of points, but it begins with a defense that holds rivals to
a meager 37% from the field while the offense shoots as well as
anyone in the country. Strong on the boards and at forcing turnovers, KU
can do it all. This is a deep, versatile team that can win out on the
fly or in a slugfest.
Weaknesses:
Free throws.
The Jayhawks are average at best on the stripe and turn it over a bit
too much, although don’t blame their point guards for that. And there is
that history thing, which says Kansas always finds a way to underachieve
in the tournament.
Players You
Should Care About:
Julian Wright may not
be the Jayhawks’ high scorer, but he’s a frontcourt dynamo who can tear
other front lines apart with his size, skill and athletic ability. Wing
Brandon Rush is a dangerous scorer, and Mario Chalmers can do a little
bit of everything from the guard spot, including terrorize other
backcourts defensively. Junior Russell Robinson is a savvy distributor,
and freshman lead Sherron Collins has been a pleasant surprise.
Best Wins:
Texas (Big 12 Championship) 88-84, Florida 82-80, Boston College
84-66
Worst Losses:
Oral Roberts 78-72, at DePaul 64-57.
Tournament Prediction: It's Kansas and it's the tournament. If Bill
Self and the boys don't lose to Kentucky/Villanova in the second round
it'll lose to Southern Illinois in the Sweet 16.
No. 8 Kentucky
Wildcats - SEC (21-11)
Basically:
Despite
growing rumors that Tubby Smith will be leaving (or would be asked to
leave) for the NBA, the Wildcats were able to persevere and put together
a pretty solid season. Credit the emergence of Randolph Morris in the
middle for much of the success, after a career of disappointing play and
NCAA trouble. This isn’t a juggernaut, by any stretch of the
imagination, but the Wildcats have enough to get past a first-round foe.
Strengths:
The offense
can score from just about anywhere. Morris is a fine interior weapon,
and UK has four good three-point shooters, making them difficult to
guard everyone all the time. The ‘Cats generally win the rebounding
battle, although not convincingly, and they do have a few guards who can
set up their teammates.
Weaknesses:
It’s odd to
talk about a Tubby Smith team and not mention defense as a strength, but
that’s not the Wildcats’ forte. They allow too many baskets from behind
the three-point line, and though Morris is formidable, he doesn’t have a
lot of help inside. Kentucky turns the ball over too often and doesn’t
force a lot of opponents’ gaffes.
Players You
Should Care About:
Give Morris credit for
becoming a viable post presence. He’s tough to stop inside and can play
some defense, too. Guard Ramel Bradley has become a good scorer, thanks
mainly to his three-point shooting, but he’s also the top assist man on
the team. Joe Crawford is solid off the dribble and rebounds well for
his size, while freshman Jodie Meeks can score outside.
Best Wins:
Tennessee
76-57, at Louisville 61-49.
Worst Losses:
at Georgia
78-69 OT, at Alabama 72-61
Tournament Prediction:
Tubby will get by Villanova to make everyone think UK can make a run,
and then Kansas will drop the hammer.
No. 9 Villanova
Wildcats – Big East (22-10)
Basically:
After losing a couple of All-American guards, Randy Foye and
Allan Ray, to graduation, Villanova has predictably slipped back into
the Big East pack this season. It still remains an overly athletic team
with a good blend of senior leadership and one really special freshman,
but unlike last March when the Wildcats were a No. 1 seed for the first
time in school history, this year’s team had to break a sweat just to
get a bid to the tournament.
Strengths: Pressure defense. When you play Villanova, it’s going
to be 40 minutes of non-stop, end-to-end pressure. Everyone cuts off
passing lanes, which leads to steals and fast break buckets for a team
that needs all the easy baskets it can get. The ‘Cats sink better than
77% of their free throws, which ranks them second in the country.
Weaknesses:
Offensive consistency. Villanova has good shooters, but you
wouldn’t know it by the last month of the season. Whether they’re
turning the ball over or expending too much energy on defense, the
Wildcat offense has shown a frustrating tendency to disappear for long
stretches of time.
Players You Should Care About: Freshman Scottie Reynolds is
‘Nova’s next superstar guard, already displaying an uncanny ability to
create his own shot, create shots for others and fill up the bucket in
spurts. Forward Curtis Sumpter has rebounded real well from an ACL tear
that shelved him last year, pacing the team in scoring and rebounding,
while providing valuable senior leadership. The graybeard of the group
is Mike Nardi, a frenetic, high-energy guard that sets the tone for the
defense.
Best Wins: Texas 76-69, Notre Dame 102-87
Worst Losses:
Drexel
81-76, DePaul 73-65
Tournament Prediction:
Villanova's offensive issues will be exposed by Kentucky.
No. 12 Illinois
Fighting Illini – Big Ten
(21-9)
Basically:
Bruce Weber has been forced to use a small rotation of
players, but it seems to be working with each player understanding his
role. The Illini survived a couple of DUIs and numerous injuries to get
off the mat at the end of January and rally for one of the Big Ten’s
berths. This is not vintage Illinois from the past few seasons, but
Weber has a veteran team with a solid frontcourt that can control the
boards and frustrate even the smoothest offenses.
Strengths: Defense. The one constant in an otherwise turbulent
year has been the play of the oppressive defense holding opponents to
just 57 points a game and 40% shooting from the field. The
big lineup is terrific on the glass giving a team that needs all the
extra looks it can get lots of second chance opportunities.
Weaknesses: Shooting. All year long and from every spot on the
court, the Illini have shot poorly and lacked execution. Illinois is
short on clutch players, ranking at or near the bottom of the Big Ten in
field goal, three-point and free throw percentage. Don’t look for many
major rallies if the team is down late in the game.
Players You Should Care About: The Illini’s leading scorer is also
one of its best rebounders and an active member of an aggressive
defense. Warren Carter averages more than 13 points a game, using his
long arms to sky above defenders. At 6-10, second-leading scorer Shaun
Pruitt is a center who plays with the hands and footwork of a small
forward. Like so many Illinois players, senior guard Rich McBride is an
erratic shooter, but is a stopper on the other end and one of the best
defenders in the league.
Best Wins: Indiana 51-43, Michigan State 57-50
Worst Losses:
at Michigan
71-61, Iowa 60-53
Tournament Prediction: The Illini got a decent first round
matchup in Virginia Tech, but the Southern Illinois defense will send
Bruce Weber and the Chiefless team home in the second round.
No. 5 Virginia
Tech Hokies - ACC (21-11)
Basically:
After
suffering through an ’05-06 season that featured tragedy and illness,
the Hokies have become a first-division performer good enough to beat
North Carolina, Duke, Maryland and every other ACC tourney team. Led by
high-scoring guard Zabian Dowdell and persistent coach Seth Greenberg,
the team is making the school known for more than just football.
Strengths:
The Hokies
do a good job with their offensive patience and are strong shooters from
all over the court. The D is aggressive at the other end holding rivals
to 41% field goal percentage. The bench goes nine deep with a good mix
of inside and outside players who make it difficult for teams to load up
on the perimeter or close to the hoop.
Weaknesses:
This isn’t a
great rebounding team getting outboarded by just about everyone in ACC
play. Free throw shooting has been an issue throughout the entire season
while the three-point shooting is mediocre. Fouls are also a problem.
Players You
Should Care About:
The 6-3 Dowdell is a
productive scorer who handles the ball well and doesn’t commit too many
turnovers, rare for someone who takes as many shots as he does. Swingman
Deron Washington is comfortable scoring from the mid-range on in, and
senior point Jamon Gordon is a fine passer, good ball-handler and
ferocious defender. A.D. Vassallo can stroke it from outside, and
Coleman Collins is a solid interior scorer and good defender.
Best Wins:
at North
Carolina 81-80 OT, North Carolina 94-88, Maryland 67-64 OT
Worst Losses:
at Marshall
59-58, George Washington 63-62
Tournament Prediction: Tech can't rebound, Illinois can rebound.
No. 4 Southern
Illinois Salukis – Missouri Valley (27-6)
Basically:
Even though
the Salukis fell to Creighton in the MVC tourney final, they had a great
season that included a top-10 ranking and plenty of good publicity. Back
in the tourney for the sixth straight year, there won’t be any wide-eyed
glad-to-be-here attitude helped by a non-conference schedule that
included some impressive wins and good near-misses.
Strengths:
Nobody in
the country plays defense any tougher or more physically. The Salukis
put tremendous pressure on the ball and will push, shove and bump every
opposing player on the court in a frustrating style that can grind games
to a halt. They’re fine from three point range, block their share of
opposing shots and create some easy baskets by forcing steals.
Weaknesses:
SIU forces
its share of turnovers, but it throws the ball away a lot, too,
finishing the season with 79 more turnovers than assists. As good as the
defense is, it’s a bit too generous on the perimeter allowing rivals to
make 35% of their three-point attempts. And, with 17 disqualifications,
the physical style is noticed by the officials.
Players You
Should Care About:
Jamaal Tatum is an
excellent scoring guard who can also apply good perimeter defense
pressure. He does, however, cough the ball up too frequently. So does
forward Randal Falker, who is quite an imposing interior presence at
both ends. Matt Shaw and Tony Young are fine long-range shooters, and
Shaw rebounds well, while Bryan Mullins is a strong point man with a
good outside shot.
Best Wins:
at Virginia
Tech 69-64, at Creighton 58-57
Worst Losses:
at
Evansville 75-68, at Northern Iowa 66-61
Tournament Prediction:
The defense will carry the Salukis deep. Do they have enough offense to
get by Kansas to get into the Elite Eight? No, but they'll get enough D
to get to UCLA where it'll bow out in a defensive slugfest.
No. 13 Holy
Cross Crusaders – Patriot
(25-8)
Basically:
The Crusaders split with Bucknell in the regular season, and
then pulled out the Patriot championship in thrilling fashion after
blowing a 19-point lead. They play tough, suffocating defense and should
fill Bucknell’s tournament shoes and be a dangerous out. After
overcoming a rough stretch of six losses in eight games by winning 20 of
the last 23, this is a hot team with a deep bench and a good rotation
that doesn’t tire out.
Strengths: Defense, defense, defense. Holy Cross only allows 57.1
points per game with an aggressive style that’s great at coming up with
steals, forcing turnovers, and hitting the defensive boards thanks to a
big front line. Unlike most mid-majors, there’s quality size to contend
with on the inside. Offenses go through long stretches against the D
without much success.
Weaknesses: Scoring. This isn’t a particularly creative offense
needing to force points from its defense. There are way too many
turnovers and little to no production from the outside. If they get
behind early, there isn’t the firepower to mount much of a comeback.
Players You Should Care About: Patriot Player of the Year Keith
Simmons is a do-it-all force who has to come up with a huge offensive
performance to give the Crusaders any sort of a chance. He leads the
team in scoring and rebounding giving the offense an inside-out scoring
presence. Torey Thomas is second on the team in scoring and was the
Patriot League’s best defensive player. He’s the shut-down guard who’ll
hound opposing top scorers.
Best Wins:
Bucknell
(Patriot Championship) 75-66, Bucknell 65-60
Worst Losses: at Dayton 69-53, at Niagara 67-61
Tournament Prediction:
Holy Cross can't score, SIU's defense is suffocating ... not a good mix.
No. 6. Duke Blue
Devils - ACC (22-10)
Basically:
This is not
one of Coach K’s best outfits, thanks to a lack of depth and a dearth of
overall athletic ability. Not that the Blue Devils are a pushover, even
if their mid-season swoon did push them out of the top 25. This will
still be a formidable tourney team thanks to its mental toughness,
ability to defend, and of course, coaching. This could be the type of
team that turns it on once everything is on the line.
Strengths:
Duke shoots
the three-pointer well and will make everyone defend the entire
perimeter at all times. With a tough man-to-man half court defense and
good rebounding on both ends of the floor, this is one of the tougher
Blue Devil teams in a while.
Weaknesses:
The offense
turns the ball over way too often. It has a short bench, with basically
a seven-man rotation that has had some problems with foul trouble
throughout the season. This isn’t a particularly good free throw
shooting team (69%) and has had trouble defending from behind the
three-point arc.
Players You
Should Care About:
Although freshman guard
Jon Scheyer hasn’t been the most accurate shooter, he has emerged during
the league campaign as the Blue Devils’ leading scorer, hope for the
future, and long range gunner. Wing DeMarcus Nelson does a little bit of
everything, although he turns the ball over too often. Steady Josh
McRoberts is a strong interior force at both ends, and point man Greg
Paulus is productive, though not spectacular, and has to be rock-solid
for the Blue Devils to make a run.
Best Wins:
Georgetown
61-52, Indiana 54-51
Worst Losses:
at Georgia
Tech 74-63, Florida State 68-67
Tournament Prediction:
It's still
Duke. Do you really think Coach K is going to get knocked out in
the first round? There'll be a run to the Sweet 16 for this
underachieving group of prep All-Americans and its overrated coach
before UCLA runs them out of the gym.
No. 11 Virginia
Commonwealth Rams – Colonial (27-6)
Basically:
The Rams had several battles on their way to the Colonial
title, but losses to Hofstra, Old Dominion and Bradley in the second
half of the season don’t matter much now. They were the class of the
conference all season long thanks to a tremendous three-guard attack and
timely play from Eric Maynor, one of the best all-around mid-major
guards in the country. There aren’t any big wins of note on the season,
so the tournament will be the team’s first real test against a big boy.
Strengths: Three pointers. VCU hits threes all game long and
especially in the clutch. Hitting 40.7% of the three point tries on the
year and keeping turnovers to a minimum have gotten the Rams to this
point, and if the guards get hot, they can make some big time noise for
a game or two. However ….
Weaknesses: … if they’re off, it’s over. There’s little size up
front, stunningly average perimeter defense considering how good the
guards are, and not enough production against the more physical teams.
6-10 Calvin Roland takes up space on the inside, but he doesn’t do
enough with his minutes. The entire team is good at hitting the boards,
but they’re in trouble against an active, athletic team.
Players You
Should Care About:
Maynor might have been
tremendous this year dishing out the rock, but he’s more than just a
point guard. He’s a good scorer who can take over a game, like he did
against George Mason in the Colonial championship, and is great at
hitting the glass. B.A. Walker leads the team in scoring, while Jesse
Pellot-Rosa is the biggest guard of the trio and can pose matchup
problems.
Best Wins:
at Drexel
75-68 and 63-56, George Mason (CAA Championship) 65-59
Worst Losses: at Hofstra 79-68, Appalachian State 73-70
Tournament Prediction: The guards will get stuffed by Duke in a
quick first round exit.
No. 3 Pittsburgh
Panthers – Big East (27-7)
Basically:
Pitt lost a couple more games than it expected to and
buckled at times in February, but the goal of contending for a national
title is still within focus if it plays up to its potential and plays at
the level it did in the Big East tournament. The Panthers are a
blue-collar, seasoned bunch of veterans with plenty of tournament
experience and a bona fide star in the middle, center Aaron Gray, who
can carry them deep. They’ve gone far in recent years with suspect
shooting teams, a trend that’s become synonymous with Pitt under Jamie
Dixon.
Strengths: Half-court defense. The Panthers play a suffocating
brand of man-to-man defense that’s held opponents to just 61 points a
game and 40% shooting from the field. With a big, physical front line,
Pitt also has a decided advantage most nights in rebounding.
Weaknesses: Perimeter Shooting. Sure, the Panthers boast a
respectable field goal percentage, but that’s more a product of their
inside game. When forced to move further from the basket, they can be
erratic, a big problem when coming from behind. Free throw shooting is
another concern, especially since the focal point of the offense, Gray,
is just 53% from the line.
Players You Should Care About: Gray is a 7-0, 270-pound force on
both ends of the court averaging a double-double for the second straight
year. The ankle he injured last month can’t be an issue if there’s any
hope of getting past the Sweet 16, but if he’s right, few teams will
have an answer for him. Point guard Levance Fields, the lone sophomore
in the starting lineup, is the offensive distributor, but can also knock
down big shots. Although listed as a backup, Ronald Ramon gets nearly
as many minutes as the starters and is the player Dixon calls on when he
needs to have a three-pointer.
Best Wins: Louisville 65-59, Marquette 89-79
Worst Loss:
Oklahoma
State 95-89
Tournament Prediction:
After a good win over Wright State, the Panthers will lose an ugly
defensive war to Duke.
No. 14 Wright
State Raiders – Horizon
(23-9)
Basically:
Even with a good record, the lack of out of conference wins
meant nothing short of a conference title would send the Raiders to the
tournament. A thrilling 60-55 win over Butler got the job done, but it’s
going to take a total team effort to come up with a win. Unfortunately,
Wright State isn’t a total team relying on DaShaun Wood to come up with
any offense. If he’s not on, it’ll be a quick and painful one-and-done.
Strengths: Scoring. Wood might be the main man for the attack,
but everyone else shoots relatively well. It’s a good three point
shooting team, and great on the free throw line. Putting up points, when
things are working well and the offense is in a flow, isn’t a problem.
Weaknesses: Rebounding. Unless the offense isn’t on, there could
be serious problems.
The Raiders have no
size whatsoever outside of 6-8 Jordan Pleiman. Everyone hits the glass
and hustles to try to get to the ball, but anyone with appreciable
strength up front should be able to dominate. Offensively, when things
are off, they’re really, really off. WSU lost to LSU 71-45, to Butler
73-42, and to Bradley 88-49.
Players You Should Care About: It’s all about Wood. He can be a
streaky player who can take over a game by himself and carry the team.
He’s also not afraid to take the big shot late, like in the Horizon
Championship with a stone-cold three pointer to all but put Butler away.
Freshman guards Vaughn Duggins and Todd Brown can do a little bit of
everything well with their man job to take advantage of teams doubling
up on Wood.
Best Wins:
Butler
(Horizon Championship) 60-55 and 77-65, at Loyola 59-47
Worst Losses: Marshall 79-72, at Youngstown State 72-57
Tournament Prediction:
This is a tremendous 14 seed that'll give Pitt a hard time. The Panthers
will be more physical on the way to the win.
No. 7 Indiana
Hoosiers – Big Ten (20-10)
Basically:
Kelvin Sampson’s first season in Bloomington has been an
up-and-down affair featuring All-Big Ten power forward D.J. White and a
collection of decent parts that figure to improve once the coach gets
more established in his new digs. Many of the same things that plagued
Mike Davis’ teams, such as an inability to win on the road and poor
late-game execution, have hindered this year’s Hoosiers. Unless White
can hoist Indiana on his broad shoulders and carry the team, the
Hoosiers don’t have the depth or talent to survive beyond the first
weekend.
Strengths: Defense. Sampson preaches fundamentally-sound defense,
and his Hoosiers have been solid allowing just 62 points a game while
blocking nearly five shots a game despite a glaring lack of frontline
size.
Weaknesses: Rebounding. Indiana will pressure at mid-court and
defend the perimeter because it can’t defend in the low post. The
Hoosiers lack the height and physicality to bang with bigger teams
needing more than just White to establish a presence in the paint.
Players You Should Care About: Promising to play with a sense of
purpose, White has delivered this season. At 6-9 and 250 pounds, he’s a
handful down low and can also step away from the basket and drain a
jumper. Rod Wilmont is a feast or famine type shooter, who can ignite
the offense one night and then disappear the next. To be successful,
the Hoosiers need senior point guard Earl Calloway to be healthy enough
to drive and dish to the team’s scorers.
Best Wins: Wisconsin 71-66, Michigan State 73-51
Worst Losses:
at Iowa
81-75, at Illinois 51-43
Tournament Prediction: A quick exit. The defense will keep
Gonzaga down for a little while, but the offense won't keep up the pace
in the second half.
No. 10 Gonzaga
Bulldogs – West Coast (23-10)
Basically:
It wouldn’t be March without Gonzaga being everyone’s
tournament darling, but these aren’t your typical Zags, who usually
coast through the conference schedule and can be counted on to ruin
about a million pools by knocking off at least one higher seed. Yeah,
they’ve won seven straight regular season league titles, but the latest
one wasn’t so easy and they’re as vulnerable as they’ve been during a
decade of greatness. At one point during the season, Gonzaga endured a
rare four-game losing streak and have had to soldier on without top big
man, 6-11 Josh Heytvelt, who was suspended after police found
hallucinogenic mushrooms in his car.
Strengths: Shooting. Everyone can shoot with accuracy,
especially the guards, Derek Raivio and Jeremy Pargo. Despite not
getting many easy buckets near the hoop, the Zags are hitting just under
50% from the field to go along with a nifty 76% from the line. They can
bomb their way back into games, or put teams away early by getting hot.
Weaknesses: Lack of depth. Heytvelt’s suspension hurt on two
fronts. His loss chipped away at a roster that already was thin while it
took away the team’s only inside scoring threat. The Bulldogs create a
lot of fouls which should force Mark Few to dig deep into his bench in
March.
Players You Should Care About: Raivio is a streaky shooter
leading the West Coast Conference in scoring at 18 points a game. He’s
also automatic from the free throw line leading the country at better
than 95% for the year. Pargo is the quarterback of the offense and also
the Bulldogs No. 2 scorer. Micah Downs missed the first half of the
season and was slowed by a bad ankle when he returned, but he came on
down the stretch scoring at least 16 points in the final three regular
season games.
Best Wins: Santa Clara (WCC Championship) 77-68, at Texas 87-77
Worst Losses:
at St.
Mary’s 60-49, at Loyola-Marymount 67-61
Tournament Prediction: The Bulldogs will outplay a lifeless
Indiana before running into a buzzsaw against UCLA in a rematch of last
year's tournament classic.
No. 2 UCLA
Bruins – Pac 10 (26-5)
Basically:
These aren’t
your Wizard’s Bruins. Although legendary UCLA coach John Wooden still
attends games at Pauley Pavilion, this edition of his powerhouse doesn’t
press and run; rather, it bumps and grinds. Coach Ben Howland has imbued
his team with great toughness, and thanks to last year’s run to the
title game, this is an experienced outfit that appears ready to turn it
on looking like the type of team that’s a lock for the Elite Eight and a
favorite for a whole bunch more.
Strengths:
The Bruins
are extremely efficient offensively converting 49% of their field goal
tries and 38% of their trey attempts. Very physical, they can lock down
the backboards and outmuscle most opponents. Howland’s style allows this
team to thrive in close games, while a fine backcourt takes good care of
the ball and can set up teammates well.
Weaknesses:
Although
UCLA doesn’t allow many points (60.1 ppg), it doesn’t play the best
field goal percentage defense (43.2% FG, 34.5% 3pt). While the Bruin
guards are good from the free throw line, their big men are awful, which
could create some tough situations at the ends of games. UCLA isn’t very
deep using just seven players primarily in most games.
Players You
Should Care About:
Junior Aaron Afflalo is
an excellent scorer who can get his shot off the dribble and is capable
of scoring from long range, too. He’ll likely be the fastest, quickest
guard in most tournament games. Wing Josh Shipp is strong off the
dribble and can make trouble on the offensive boards. People wondered
how UCLA would fare without point man Jordan Farmar, but sophomore
Darren Collison has been tremendous, averaging 6.0 apg, piling up the
steals and showing great shot judgment. Forward Luc Richard Mbah-a-Moute
is a do-everything type, while Lorenzo Mata is productive inside.
Best Wins:
Texas A&M
65-62, at Washington State 53-45
Worst Losses:
at Stanford 75-68, California 76-69
Tournament Prediction:
National champion. The early exit from the Pac 10 tournament will be a
plus. The lack of quality front-court players won't be a problem until
the Final Four. After the revenge win over Florida, the Bruin guards
will outplay Ohio State's backcourt to win the title.
No. 15 Weber
State Wildcats – Big Sky
(20-11)
Basically:
After finishing last in the Big Sky a year ago, the Wildcats
soared past expectations in Randy Rahe’s debut on the bench, claiming a
share of the regular season championship. Rahe brought a new attitude
and some new blood to Ogden, bolstering a team that was picked to finish
in sixth place before the season began. Weber State is not the deepest
or most experienced team, but it plays with balance and more toughness
near the hoop to complement league MVP, senior forward David Patten.
Strengths: Three-point shooting. As much as Rahe wants to be
more than just a perimeter shooting team, that’s still the strength of
his inaugural team. The Wildcats are sinking close to 50% of their
shots, including nearly 40% from three-point country.
Weaknesses: Low-post game. Weber State may get there in the
coming years, but right now, has a limited inside presence which leads
to weak results on the boards and too many easy buckets. Worse yet, it
commits way too many turnovers and are only hitting 66% of its free
throws. Unless the Wildcats can tighten up all areas of their game, a
first-round upset is unlikely.
Players You Should Care About: Patten is the undisputed catalyst
for this team, leading it in scoring, blocks and steals while chipping
in five boards a game. If the Wildcats are going to advance, he’ll have
to be at his best for 40 minutes. Uruguay native Juan Pablo Silveira
Weber’s long-ball ace, getting more than half of his 11 points a game
from beyond the arc. Another import, Lithuania’s Arturas Valeika has a
solid short-range game and is the Wildcats’ most consistent rebounder.
Best Wins: Northern Arizona (Big Sky Championship) 88-80 & 81-73
& 86-79
Worst Losses:
Idaho State
58-55, at Montana State 63-48
Tournament Prediction:
While Weber State has the right kind of team to give UCLA a problem, the
Bruins will come out roaring after the way their last two games.