2007 March Madness Breakdowns
West |
Midwest |
South
- Get Picks For All the
NCAA Tournament Games
East Bracket
No. 1 North Carolina
Tar Heels
– ACC (28-6)
Basically:
One of the favorites for the national
championship since the season began, the
Heels have been hanging in the top five
for the entire ride before struggling
down the stretch. UNC may feature three
freshmen among its top four scorers, but
that hasn’t prevented head coach Roy
Williams from playing an up-tempo style
that overwhelms opponents at both ends.
On talent alone this team is good enough
to go to the Final Four.
Strengths:
The Heels can score in waves. They shoot
50% from the field and 37% from behind
the three-point line, get easy buckets
off their ball pressure, and have plenty
of options in the half-court set. They
also have a plus-nine rebounding margin
and can harass rivals into game-changing
turnovers.
Weaknesses:
North Carolina isn’t always so conscientious on defense once things get
into the half court, and when the
offense isn’t hitting its shots or
committing too many turnovers, the style
allows opponents to get revved up
offensively. Thanks to those three
freshmen, there will be some sloppy play
and periodic lapses from time to time.
It seemed like the team hit a wall late
in the year.
Players You Should Care About:
Tyler Hansbrough may have had trouble
with Kentucky’s Randolph Morris earlier
in the year, but he’s a formidable
inside presence who should be able to
dominate inside against most of the
smaller teams the Heels will likely face
early on. Freshman forward Brandon
Wright is a human elastic band who can
fly up and down the floor and is a
likely top-five pick when he decides to
go pro. Classmate Ty Lawson has been a
reliable pointman, despite his youth,
and freshman wing guard Wayne Ellington
has deep range and sound fundamentals.
Best Wins:
NC State (ACC Championship) 89-80, Ohio
State 98-89, Tennessee 101-87
Worst Losses:
at North Carolina State 83-79, Gonzaga
82-74
Tournament Prediction: A
shockingly early exit. The 8 vs. 9
winner between Marquette and Michigan
State will pull off the stunner with a
good defensive performance.
No. 16 Eastern Kentucky
Colonels –
Ohio Valley (21-11)
Basically: A last-second layup allowed the Colonels to slip past
Austin Peay in the OVC Tournament championship to avenge a 77-68 loss to
the Governors in late February. The improved play of the front line has
led the way to a four-game winning streak to close out the regular
season, but EKU lives and dies by its back court. This isn’t a
high-scoring team, but it plays decent defense and gets timely outside
shooting.
Strengths: Not fouling. It might not seem like much, but
considering everything has to go right to pull off a win or two, the
Colonels’ ability to keep teams off the line might turn out to be
important. They’re second in the nation (Arizona is first) in fouls
committing a mere 13.3 per game, while the guards, particularly Adam
Leonard, are great from three-point range.
Weaknesses: Size up front. While the front line has been better
over the last month on the way to the OVC title, the lack of bulk up
front might mean a quick exit unless the guards are hitting. The team’s
deliberate style of play keeps points off the board, but the defense
isn’t all that tight allowing way too many second chances. In other
words, any opponent with a big player or two up front should be able to
dominate.
Players You
Should Care About:
It’s up to Leonard,
along with Mike Rose and Julian Mascoll, to make the first round
interesting. Rose, a sophomore, and Leonard, at freshman, are the main
scorers, but Mascoll does it all leading the team in assists along with
being one of the team’s best rebounders. If all three aren’t scoring in
double figures, EKU doesn’t have a chance.
Best Wins:
Austin Peay
(OVC Championship) 63-62, Tennessee Tech 92-90
Worst Losses: at Jacksonville State 66-56, at Youngstown State
66-61
Tournament
Prediction: Out in the first round. Keeping it within 25 of the Tar
Heels would be a win.
No. 8 Marquette Golden
Eagles – Big
East (24-9)
Basically: Marquette is a basketball enigma these days. Talented
enough to beat Pittsburgh and Duke, yet so inconsistent that even games
with North Dakota State and Providence are mighty struggles. The Eagles
have been streaky all year losing their first two Big East games and
winning the next eight before stumbling to the end of the regular
season. Considering Marquette’s recent play and the fact that its three
most valuable players are all sophomores, one-and-done could be the
script for the second consecutive March.
Strengths: Guard play. The Eagles’ young guards are extremely
athletic and aggressive on both ends of the court, which has led to
plenty of turnovers, more steals than all but one Big East team and lots
of fast break opportunities. The way Marquette pressures the perimeter,
opposing teams lacking good ball handlers usually suffer through a long
night.
Weaknesses: Low-post defense. Ousmane Barro is Marquette’s best
option in down low, but he’s inconsistent and prone to getting into foul
trouble. In fact, because of the defensive style it plays, a number of
Eagles have fouled out this year, testing their questionable depth.
From mid-range and long-distance to the free throw line, Marquette is
one of the most maddeningly erratic shooting teams in the Big East.
Players You Should Care About: Just a sophomore, Dominic James is
the electrifying, often contagious, catalyst for Marquette. Playing
much bigger than his 5-11 stature, as he goes, so go the Eagles. Wesley
Matthews and Jerel McNeal are James’ partners in crime at the guard
position. A sensational all-around athlete, McNeal is the team’s
second-leading scorer and best defender, but must avoid silly fouls in
the tournament.
Best Wins: Duke 73-62, Pitt 75-71
Worst Losses:
North Dakota
State 65-48, Providence 74-59
Tournament
Prediction: A
hard-fought loss to Michigan State in the first round.
No. 9
Michigan State Spartans
– Big Ten (22-11)
Basically: After losing three players to the NBA Draft, it
surprised no one that the Spartans struggled with consistency once the
Big Ten portion of the schedule began. A team without seniors, MSU has
done well just to get to into the tournament and can use the experience
as a building block for next season. With Tom Izzo on the bench and the
freshmen and sophomores beginning to play like upperclassmen as the
season has gone on, the Spartans are going to be a nuisance during the
first weekend of action.
Strengths: Defense and rebounding. Few teams around defend or
crash the boards on both ends of the court as well as the Spartans.
Opponents are shooting just 38% against Michigan State and it
established a new school-record this winter in blocked shots. If their
shots are going down, the Spartans could make some noise this month.
Weaknesses: Offensive consistency. The Spartans can be flaky and
painfully off at times offensively with too many turnovers and long dry
spells for spurts. Outside East Lansing, they went a miserable 1-9 this
season in the regular season.
Players You Should Care About: The Spartans need guard Drew Neitzel
to be lights out in order to win a couple of games. The left-handed
sharpshooter leads the team in scoring, was the Big Ten’s free throw
leader all year long, and can change the momentum of a game from behind
the arc with NBA three-point. Up front, sophomore Goran Suton is
quickly becoming one of the best rebounders in the Big Ten. The future
of Spartan basketball is Raymar Morgan, a 6-7 freshman forward who
matured in February into a solid contributor.
Best Wins: Texas 63-61, Wisconsin 64-55
Worst Losses:
at Indiana
73-51, at Michigan 67-56
Tournament
Prediction: Sweet 16. Drew Neitzel will hit a big late shot to beat
Marquette and will blow up for 30 on North Carolina. There won't be
enough firepower to beat Texas or USC to get further.
No. 5 USC Trojans
– Pac 10 (23-11)
Basically:
Tim Floyd
might have bombed out in the pros, but there can be no doubting his
chops as a college boss. The guy knows how to build a program, and for
everybody who’s pointing toward next season and the arrival of O.J. Mayo
as the true launching pad, consider what the Trojans have done this
year. Using a physical attack that’s somewhat alien to the Pac-10
(outside of their archrivals up there in Westwood), Floyd has taken an
imperfect team and made it into a formidable foe.
Strengths:
Floyd’s
teams are tough and defense-first outfits. Opponents made a mere 38.6%
of their field goal tries and only 30.9% of their shots behind the arc.
The Trojans are strong on the perimeter, force a ton of turnovers, and
they shoot the trey well (39.3%). The offense is balanced featuring four
double-figure scorers making it tough to focus on any one option.
Weaknesses:
The Trojans
are able to put the ball in the hoop – when they don’t turn it over.
With 65 more cough-ups than assists, this isn’t necessarily a reliable
team with the ball. Although they have several players who can set up
teammates, there’s no one standout point man. For being a tough team,
it’s soft on the boards with a meager plus-0.1 rebounding margin. They
aren’t great away from home (4-6).
Players You
Should Care About:
Freshman big man Taj
Gibson isn’t the huskiest guy around, but he’s a strong rebounder,
excellent shot blocker and good interior finisher. Junior Nick Young
turns it over a lot, but he can score inside and out. Senior Lodrick
Stewart is one of the better three-point shooters you’ll find and junior
Gabe Pruitt can score and distribute. Freshman Daniel Hackett has shown
signs of being a reliable point down the road.
Best Wins:
at Oregon
84-82, Washington State 70-61
Worst Losses:
South
Carolina 80-74, at Arizona State 68-58
Tournament
Prediction: After an easy win over Arkansas, Tim Floyd's bunch won't
be able to contain Kevin Durant in a second round loss to Texas.
No. 12
Arkansas
Razorbacks -
SEC (21-13)
Basically:
A year of
turmoil with head coach Stan Heath on the hottest of seats has turned
out relatively fine after a great run in the SEC tournament, despite
finishing up by getting blasted by Florida in the final. It took a good
early March to get in after a disastrous start to 2007, but now this
might be a dangerous out with a good defense and excellent size.
Strengths:
Interior
defense. Helped by 6-10 Darian Towers and 7-0 Stephen Hill, the Hogs are
big in the middle and great at blocking shots and altering opposing
offensive gameplans. While this isn’t the most consistent team in the
tournament, there are several offensive weapons to go to with four
double-digit scorers and good ball movement.
Weaknesses:
Game-in-and-game-out consistency. Turnovers upon more turnovers are part
of the reason. The Hogs didn’t win back-to-back games in the SEC until
late, and even though they got hot at the right time, they didn’t play a
who’s who of top conference teams in the SEC tournament.
Players You
Should Care About:
Freshman Patrick
Beverley is the team’s leading scorer and solid assist man. While he’s
not big, and he’s not the type who’ll go off and light up the
scoreboard, he’s a consistent shooter who can hit from the outside when
left open. If the Hogs are going to make any sort of a run, they need to
use their size with Towers, Hill, and 6-10 reserve players Vincent
Hunter and Michael Washington to beat up teams on the inside.
Best Wins:
Vanderbilt
72-71, LSU 72-52
Worst Losses:
at Auburn
67-59, at Ole Miss 74-72
Tournament
Prediction: The offense will struggle in a first round loss to USC.
No. 4 Texas
Longhorns –
Big 12 (24-9)
Basically:
With a young
team that didn’t seam ready for primetime, Texas appeared to be a year
away from being a possible national title contender. Fab Fives don’t
come around every year. Yeah, but Kevin Durant doesn’t come around that
often, either. The exquisite freshman emerged as a national Player of
the Year candidate and possible number one overall draft pick (or second
behind Ohio State’s Greg Oden) whenever he decides to come out. He’s the
type of must-see player who can become the signature player of the
tournament.
Strengths: There isn’t another player in the college ranks
capable of getting his shot any better than Durant. Texas plays at a
fast pace, which allows for a lot of points, a high shooting percentage,
and allows the offense to go on big runs to either put games away or
come back when needed. This is an excellent three-point shooting team
(45% in Big 12 play) that’s deadly from the free throw line and piles up
the steals.
Weaknesses:
Texas isn’t
the best half-court defensive team, especially when guarding the
perimeter. The team commits too many turnovers, and it has only a
plus-1.5 rebounding margin. It is also a relatively thin team which
makes primary use of just six players.
Players You
Should Care About:
Durant is a phenomenal
offensive player capable of scoring from anywhere on the court and at
any time. He’s a demon on the boards, runs the floor like someone five
inches shorter and is an improving defender. Guard D.J. Augustin may
only be a freshman, but he’s a fine distributor, leads the break like a
veteran and can finish inside and out. A.J. Abrams fires away well from
long range, and Daimon James is reliable interior scorer/rebounder.
Best Wins:
Texas A&M
98-96 OT, at Texas Tech, 76-64.
Worst Losses:
at Kansas
State 73-72, Gonzaga 87-77
Tournament
Prediction:
Durant will carry the Longhorns into the Final Four. There will be
several shootouts along the way including a tremendous, epic battle of
three-point shooting teams when Texas loses to Ohio State in Atlanta.
No. 13
New Mexico State Aggies
– WAC (25-8)
Basically: After winning just six games two seasons ago, NMSU is
in the tournament for the first time since 1999 to complete a brilliant
rebuilding job done by former NBA star Reggie Theus. The Aggies missed
WAC heavyweight Nevada in the conference final, but got all they could
handle from Utah State in a 72-70 win saved by an air-balled three-point
attempt at the buzzer. Outside of a mid-season win over Nevada, there
aren’t many victories of note, but this is a dangerous team with more
than enough firepower to pull off a shocker or two.
Strengths: It’s a Reggie Theus coached team, so take a guess what
it does really, really well. With one of the nation’s best offenses, the
Aggies can run and gun with anyone thanks to an up-tempo attack that’s
great from inside, outside, and everywhere in between. While defense
isn’t necessarily a forte (again, a Reggie Theus coached team), it’s
aggressive and good at coming up with steals.
Weaknesses: The Aggie defense isn’t going to stop anyone cold.
While it’s a good D in a half-court set, it allows way too many points
generated off turnovers. The offense is good at hitting the three-point
shot, but it doesn’t take a lot of them and needs to be effective inside
and on the break. Fouls are a problem in all areas. The Aggies commit
too many, and they struggle to hit their free throws.
Players You Should Care About: The scoring comes from several
players with nine players in a consistent rotation, but junior forwards
Justin Hawkins and Tyrone Nelson are the main men both scoring and on
the boards. Hawkins was the star of the WAC title game, while Nelson
dominated Boise State in the semifinal. 7-0, 240-pound Martin Iti sees
plenty of time, but 6-9 Hatila Passos is the team’s most effective
inside presence.
Best Wins:
Utah State (WAC
Championship) 72-70, Nevada 80 73
Worst Losses: Loyola Marymount 71-69, at Louisiana Tech 73-71
Tournament
Prediction: Out in the first round, but the Aggies won't go quietly.
They'll put up some big-time numbers on Texas.
No. 6
Vanderbilt
Commodores – SEC (20-11)
Basically:
If you begin
the season as an afterthought to reach the NCAA tournament, the best way
to get noticed is to knock off all the teams in your conference expected
to go in ahead of you. So, by beating Florida, Tennessee, Kentucky,
Alabama and LSU, the Commodores established themselves as post-season
ready and a team that might not be an automatic out. They didn’t
overwhelm anybody outside the SEC, but they took care of business in
league play when they had to.
Strengths:
This team
can score some points and boasts of the best perimeter games around.
Four different Commodores shoot better than 35% from beyond the arc,
putting tremendous pressure on defenses to be on their toes for a full
forty minutes. Vandy doesn’t cough it up too much and is an excellent
free throw shooting team.
Weaknesses:
There are
plenty. The defense is suspect, at best. SEC teams made 45.8% of their
field goal attempts and were successful 37.2% of the time from behind
the arc. Vandy also struggles on the backboards with a minus-2.9
rebounding margin.
Players You
Should Care About:
Senior wing Derrick
Byars exploded in SEC play to score 19.1 a game. He gets his points
inside and out and can rebound and defend. Shan Foster is another
multi-purpose offensive player capable of drilling the long ball and
setting up teammates. Dan Cage is a three-point specialist, and Alex
Gordon takes good care of the ball at the point. Ross Neltner scores
well close to the hoop.
Best Wins:
Florida
83-70, Tennessee 82-81
Worst Losses:
at Auburn
68-65, at Georgia 85-73
Tournament
Prediction: Hot shooting for a stretch will get the Commodores past
GW, but won't be enough to handle Washington State's defense in the
second round.
No. 11
George Washington Colonials
– Atlantic 10 (23-8)
Basically: Not even considered a bubble team before the A-10
tournament began, George Washington used its tremendous defense and the
play of senior guard Carl Elliott, who scored 17 points in the
championship win over Rhode Island, to go to the tournament for the
third year in a row. After a good start to the year, highlighted by a
win over Virginia Tech, all hope post-season appearances appeared to be
lost after a disastrous two weeks in early December losing four
straight, but the Colonials turned it around to close out with eight
straight wins once the defense started to turn up the intensity.
Strengths: The defense has become special. The Colonials are
tremendous at pressuring the ball and forcing steals, blocked shots and
turnovers, while on the offensive end, they’re good at getting timely
three-point shooting and not forcing bad shots. This is a relatively
deep team that can go nine deep if it has to, and everyone rebounds.
Weaknesses: The offense is good, not great. This isn’t the type
of team that’ll come out and run a slow, stodgy team off the floor.
There’s not a lot of firepower beyond the top three scorers. If the
guards are slowed down or aren’t on, the offense comes to a screeching
halt. Lately, if Maureece Rice isn’t hitting from three, there’s no
outside shooting threat whatsoever.
Players You Should Care About: Rice is the team’s leading scorer
and main three-point shooting threat, while fellow Elliott does a little
bit of everything well. Along with being great defending the bigger
guards, Elliott is a tremendous passer and good on the boards. If these
two aren’t on fire, it’ll be a short tournament.
Best Wins:
Rhode Island
(Atlantic 10 Championship) 78-69, Virginia Tech 63-62
Worst Losses: St. Joseph’s 62-56, at Providence 86-67
Tournament
Prediction: The defense will keep it close against Vandy, but there
won't be enough offense to step up once the Commodores go on a spurt.
No. 3 Washington
State Cougars
– Pac 10 (25-7)
Basically:
Folks up in
the Pacific Northwest can’t understand why Tony Bennett, Jr., hasn’t
been named the national coach of the year already thanks to the job he’s
done lifting the Cougars from the dregs of the Pac-10 to a high tourney
seed. He has done it in typical Bennett family tradition emphasizing
tough defense, deliberate offense and smart, tough basketball.
Strengths:
The Cougs
have a balanced scoring attack that features five players capable of
hitting double figures at any given time. They don’t turn the ball over
much and make opponents work extremely hard for baskets, often to the
point of sheer futility. WSU plays excellent interior defense and is
solid on the perimeter.
Weaknesses:
Wazzu isn’t
the best rebounding team, a condition which was exacerbated in Pac-10
play against the more physical teams. If the game gets out of the high
fifties or low sixties, there could be trouble. Offensive diversity
isn’t an issue; creating shots is.
Players You
Should Care About:
Junior Derrick Low is
an excellent three-point shooter who can handle the ball well and plays
effective defense. Fellow guard Kyle Weaver is better off the dribble
and is a capable distributor, competent board man and strong perimeter
defenseman. Ivory Clark and Robbie Cowgill can rebound and defend inside
while providing fairly reliable interior scoring.
Best Wins:
at Arizona
72-66, at Washington 65-61
Worst Losses:
at Stanford 71-68, at Utah 69-55.
Tournament
Prediction: Better than everyone will predict. No one's giving
Bennett's club any respect, and it'll use that on the way to the Sweet
16 before succumbing to Georgetown's size.
No. 14 Oral Roberts
Golden Eagles
– Mid-Continent (23-10)
Basically: Bubble teams caught a break with Oral Roberts beating
Oakland in the MCC Tournament Championship 71-67. One of the nation’s
hottest teams during a mid-season stretch winning nine straight and 13
of 14, along with an early season win over Kansas, the Golden Eagles
would’ve been in the hunt for an at-large bid had they not won the
title. With a killer 1-2 scoring punch of Caleb Green and Ken Tutt, this
could be an annoying team over the first two rounds if the defense shows
up.
Strengths: Scoring. Averaging over 72 points a game and hitting
close to 47% from the field, ORU has the firepower to bomb away with
just about everyone. Green is a force on the inside while Tutt is great
at doing a little of everything to get points. A deep bench with eight
players in the rotation keeps everyone fresh and compliments the two
senior stars well. Rebounding is a major plus with Green cleaning up
everything 6-10 Shawn King doesn’t get to. The two form a dangerous
defensive presence against anyone driving in the lane.
Weaknesses: Turnovers. With over 15 turnovers per game, ORU can
get a bit careless. As good as the offense is, it’s not great at
dropping the hammer and putting average teams away, and isn’t going to
pull away from anyone in the tournament; the scoring defense simply
isn’t tight enough.
Players You Should Care About: Green is one of the most
consistent forces going into the tournament scoring 19 points or more in
his last 14 games. ORU has won its last eight games when Green hits the
double-digit mark in rebounds. Tutt’s an excellent three point shooter,
but when things are working well on the inside, Moses Ehambe is the one
to watch to hit the dagger from behind the arc.
Best Wins:
Kansas
73-71, Oakland 73-63
Worst Losses: Loyola Marymount 13-18, UT Chattanooga 76-72
Tournament
Prediction: After giving Wazzu a mega-scare, the Golden Eagles will
lose late in a good first round battle.
No. 7 Boston
College Eagles - ACC
(20-11)
Basically:
The Eagles
aren’t quite the dangerous threat they appeared to be earlier in the
year. Even though BC stayed strong in the immediate aftermath of the
dismissals of standout frontcourt performer Sean Williams and forward
Akida McLain for disciplinary reasons, it faltered down the stretch.
Even so, it remained in the ACC’s first division even though a lack of
depth and interior heft made it vulnerable, particularly on the
defensive end.
Strengths:
The Eagles
will score some points and can gun with just about anyone in the
tournament. They shoot well from virtually all over the court and have a
productive point man in Tyrese Rice who’s a solid quarterback for the
attack. This is a well-coached team that won’t make too many big
mistakes and shoots free throws well.
Weaknesses:
This isn’t
an elite defensive team by any stretch evidenced by ACC rivals’ 46%
field goal success and 36% marksmanship from behind the three-point
line. BC gets pounded pretty well on the boards, thanks to Williams’
absence. There were more turnovers than assists in ACC play and not
enough steals to make up for them. Aside from forward Jared Dudley,
there isn’t another player who makes more than a third of his trey
attempts.
Players You
Should Care About:
Dudley, who leads the
team in scoring and rebounding, is a big-time forward who became one of
the ACC’s best players. The Eagles will look to shake him loose every
way possible on offense and get him involved early on. Rice has a pile
of assists and finishes well close to the hoop, but has limited range,
while forward Sean Marshall can score well inside and from the
mid-range. Junior transfer Tyrelle Blair will block a couple shots every
time out.
Best Wins:
Maryland
73-62, Michigan State 65-58
Worst Losses:
Vermont
77-63, Duquesne 98-93
Tournament
Prediction: Upset. If Texas Tech plays up to its capabilities, BC's
poor defense will mean an early exit.
No. 10 Texas
Tech Red Raiders
– Big 12 (21-12)
Basically:
A slight
stunner, Texas Tech was awful late in January and early in February
losing five straight. A nice Big 12 tournament run helped the cause, but
a blowout loss to Kansas State appeared to be the nail in Bobby Knight’s
coffin. Apparently not. This was a good enough team to beat teams like
Arkansas, Kansas and Texas A&M (twice), but flaky enough to lose big to
Oklahoma, Stanford and Air Force.
Strengths:
Few teams
shoot from the outside as effectively and, as expected from a Knight
coached team, there aren’t many turnovers or major mistakes from the
offense. The offense is good at coming up with the right passes, hits
all the free throws, and nails everything from three even though the
offense doesn’t bomb away from the outside as much as it probably
should. In guards Jarrius Jackson and Martin Zeno, the Red Raiders have
a deadly 1-2 punch that can get hot in stretches. However …
Weaknesses:
… if those
two aren’t scoring, the offense goes dead-flat. The defense is mediocre,
at best, and hasn’t proven it can stay with the more athletic teams for
more than a game in a row. This is an awful rebounding team and not
nearly enough of an inside presence for a Knight team. Consistency has
been an issue all season long. Which Red Raider team will show up?
Players You
Should Care About:
It’s all about Jackson
and Zeno. Jackson is a pure scorer averaging over 20 points per game,
while Zeno is a big guard who poses matchup problems on both ends of the
court. He’s great on the boards and the team’s best passer. The
front-line forwards, primarily Jon Plefka and Darryl Dora, have to play
up to their size. They’re big and strong, but they don’t rebound as well
as they should.
Best Wins:
Kansas
69-64, Texas A&M 70-68 & 77-75
Worst Losses:
at Baylor
73-70, Nebraska 61-59
Tournament
Prediction: Bobby Knight might have lost his fastball, but he'll
have his team revved up for one big game before getting blown out by
Georgetown.
No. 2 Georgetown Hoyas – Big
East (26-6)
Basically: There’s a John Thompson, a Patrick Ewing and a nasty
defense at Georgetown. Yeah, it’s been a while, but the Hoyas are back
among the elite teams in the country after winning the Big East title,
and while this group of Hoyas might not be the dominant force the 1980s
juggernauts were, it’s a threat to go far. After starting slowly, they
caught fire in February reeling off 11 Big East wins in-a-row before
getting dumped by Syracuse. Led by one of the best frontcourt duos in
the nation, which opens things up for the guards, the team is peaking at
the best possible time. With no seniors logging serious minutes, are
they ready for a Final Four run, or are they just setting the table for
a big 2007-2008?
Strengths: Half-court defense. The Hoyas don’t apply much
pressure or create many turnovers, but they make every shot a chore to
get off. They’re long, lean and tireless, holding opponents to just 56
points a game and 38% from the field while controlling the boards with
their size advantage.
Weaknesses: The backcourt. The Hoyas only have three legitimate
guards and are susceptible to athletic backcourts that can apply full
court pressure and defend the perimeter. They lack a true point guard
that can penetrate or effectively feed the big men in the post.
Players You Should Care About: At 7-2 and 275 pounds, Roy Hibbert is
a severe match-up nightmare every time he steps on the court. He’s
hitting close to 70% of his shots, and when he’s not batting away
jumpers, he’s redirecting them. Forward Jeff Green is the total package
with tremendous range and passing skills on offense and the 6-9 frame to
bang the boards alongside Hibbert. Jonathan Wallace is the Hoyas’ best
pure shooter, hitting close to 50% of his threes and better than 90%
from the stripe.
Best Wins: Pitt (Big East Championship) 65-42 and 61-53
Worst Losses:
Old Dominion
75-62, Villanova 56-52
Tournament
Prediction:
The second and third round wins will be easier than the first round.
Belmont's size up front will provide problems for a little while. The
Hoyas will get to the Elite Eight before it gets ripped apart by Texas.
No. 15 Belmont Bruins –
Atlantic Sun (23-9)
Basically:
East
Tennessee State was supposed to be the class of the Atlantic Sun, but
Belmont had other ideas winning the conference championship for the
second straight year with a dominant 94-67 win over the Buccaneers. The
Bruins have won ten of their last 11 games heating up at just the right
time by dominating since a loss to Lipscomb by winning each of the last
seven by at least 15 points. One of the deepest and biggest mid-majors
in the tournament, wearing out won’t be a problem.
Strengths: On the ball defense. The Bruins don’t come up with
many steals and don’t block many shots, even with 6-10 centers Boomer
Herndon and Andrew Preston playing key roles, but they hound the heck
out of shooters and don’t allow many good looks allowing teams to hit
just 39% from the field. The depth is there with ten players seeing time
in the rotation providing plenty of looks and options.
Weaknesses: Turnover margin. Belmont isn’t shy about giving the
ball away committing 16.3 turnovers per game while only coming up with
5.9 steals per outing. The offense has been so streaky, and the defense
so good over the last few weeks, that being sloppy mattered. The guards
have to be far tighter with the ball or else it’ll be a quick
one-and-done.
Players You
Should Care About:
So many players are in
the mix and there’s such a deep rotation that there’s scoring from
several different sources, but Herndon, along with, junior guard Justin
Hare, are the primary inside-out options. Sophomore Matthew Dotson is
the type of 6-8, 220-pound, active pain-in-the-butt on the boards that
top teams hate to deal with.
Best Wins:
at East
Tennessee State 75-74, 94-67
Worst Losses: at Middle Tennessee State 64-57, at St. Mary’s
71-60
Tournament
Prediction: A good battle with Georgetown for about 30 minutes
before getting blasted late.