Baylor Bears
Preview 2007
By
Michael Bradley &
Pete Fiutak
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2007 BU
Offense Preview | 2007
BU Defense Preview
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2007 BU Depth Chart
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2006 CFN Baylor
Preview
Three conference
wins don’t seem like much. Three. At Baylor, that’s the most the
program has ever pulled off in the Big 12. Three years ago, Guy
Morriss’ team managed a single league triumph. In ’05, it won two.
Last year, three. You know what’s coming, don’t you?
That’s right, four wins in ’07. At least that’s the hope.
Head coach: Guy Morriss
5th year: 15-31
7th season overall: 24-45
Returning Lettermen:
Off. 20, Def. 21, ST 1
Lettermen Lost: 34 |
Ten
Best BU Players
1. LB Joe Pawelek, Soph.
2. OT Jason Smith, Jr.
3. DT Vincent Rhodes, Jr.
4. OG Dan Gay, Jr.
5. S Dwain Crawford, Jr.
6. LB Nick Moore, Sr.
7. S Jeremy Williams, Soph.
8. WR Thomas White, Jr.
9. OG Chad Smith, Sr.
10. QB John David Weed, Jr. |
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2007 Schedule
CFN
Prediction: 3-9 |
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Sept. 1 |
at
TCU |
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Sept.8 |
Rice |
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Sept. 15 |
Texas State |
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Sept. 22 |
at Buffalo |
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Sept. 29 |
at
Texas A&M |
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Oct.
6 |
Colorado |
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Oct.
13 |
at
Kansas |
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Oct.
20 |
Texas |
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Oct.
27 |
at
Kansas State |
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Nov.
3 |
Texas Tech |
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Nov.
10 |
at
Oklahoma |
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Nov.
17 |
Oklahoma State |
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2006
Schedule
CFN
Prediction:
4-8
2006 Schedule:
4-8
Preview 2006 predicted wins |
| 9/2 |
TCU L 17-7 |
| 9/9 |
Nwestern St
W 47-10 |
| 9/16 |
at Wash St L 17-15 |
| 9/23 |
Army
L 27-20 OT |
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9/30 |
Kansas State
W 17-3 |
| 10/7 |
at Colo. W 34-31 3OT |
| 10/14 |
at Texas L 63-31 |
| 10/21 |
Kansas
W 36-35 |
| 10/28 |
Texas A&M L 31-21 |
| 11/4 |
at Texas Tech L 55-21 |
| 11/11 |
at Oklahoma St L 66-24 |
| 11/18 |
Oklahoma L 36-10 |
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Okay, so that still doesn’t seem like a lot, but with a non-conference
schedule that includes Texas State and Buffalo, a continued improvement
in league play would mean a bowl game for the first time in 13 years,
while finalizing one of the better building jobs done in college
football.
It’s possible that the Baylor administration understands that building a
team capable of contending in the tough Big 12 South, from the ruins of
a hapless also-ran, might take more than five years. Just look at
Rutgers. But there no doubt will be some pressure on Morriss to get to
the postseason, or at least to enter November in a position to make a
run, to avoid any sort of a hot seat in 2008.
But it’s not that easy, not with a young team that could have as many as
seven freshmen and sophomores starting on offense and five more on
defense. And not with an unsettled quarterback situation that could take
until just before the opener at TCU to be resolved. Baylor is making
progress, but in a division with Oklahoma and Texas, not to mention
Texas A&M, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech – bowl teams all – it’s hard to
move at anything other than a snail’s pace. Thus the sense of
accomplishment over the 1-2-3 league wins.
If
Baylor is even going to sniff three Big 12 wins again this year, it has
to improve a defense that gave up yards and points by the bunches.
Perhaps the ascension of Larry Hoefer, who replaces Bill Bradley (San
Diego Chargers) as defensive coordinator, will help. Maybe the importing
of junior college end Leon Freeman and JC safety Ray Sims will make a
difference. Whatever the case, the Bears can’t keep surrendering 30-plus
points a week (and more than 50 three times), as they did in their final
seven conference games, and expect to compete.
There’s no question Baylor is making progress. The question is whether
that advancement is sufficient to exceed what others in the conference
are doing. Should the Bears follow their recent progression, the answer
will be a resounding yes.
What to look for on offense: Despite the loss of seven starters,
and big needs at receiver and running back, the main focus during the
spring and summer will be at quarterback, where sophomore Blake
Szymanski, who started three games last year and completed 52.9% of his
121 passes, will now be third in the mix with JC transfers Michael
Machen and John Weed likely to take over. Whoever wins will pilot a
spread attack with potential – provided the triggerman is right. The
coaching staff will try to do something to generate a bit more of a
running game after finishing dead last in America last year.
What to look for on defense: The Baylor 4-2-5 was particularly
ineffective against the run last year, surrendering 191.1 yards per game
and 5.0 each carry. Perhaps Sims and Freeman will help, but it’s asking
a lot to expect that they’ll be enough to reverse things completely. If
the Bears can stop people, they’ll get better. If not, look for some
more ugly scores.
This team will be much better if… it runs the football. You think
the Bears’ rushing defense was bad? Well, check out the ground activity
on the other side of the ball…or the lack thereof. Baylor averaged a
paltry 40.2 yards per game and just 2.1 yards per carry last year. Part
of the problem statistically was a boatload of sacks, but the running
backs simply didn’t produce.
The Schedule:
The non-conference
slate isn’t bad outside of an opening-day game at TCU, with winnable
dates against Rice and Texas State along with a strange trip to Buffalo.
Getting Colorado, Kansas and Kansas State from the North is a decent
break, while Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State have to come to Waco.
The Big 12 slate alternates between home and road games.
Best Offensive Player:
Junior OT
Jason Smith. The 6-5, 288-pound junior is one of only four returning
starters to the Bear offense, with three of them up front. The former
tight end is the best of the lot, a durable pass protector with 20
career starts and good upside. Even with all his experience, he’s still
growing into the job.
Best Defensive Player:
Sophomore LB
Joe Pawelek. A breakout player, Pawelek had a fantastic redshirt
freshman season, leading the team with 86 tackles to go along with two
sacks and four broken up passes. He’s smart, big, mobile and tough,
checking in at a surprisingly quick 231 pounds. He’ll be in the hunt for
All-Big 12 honors from the start of the year.
Key player to a
successful season:
Senior QB Michael
Machen. Szymanski started the final three games of last season for an
injured Shawn Bell with limited results, finishing his season with four
touchdown passes and seven interceptions. Now it’ll likely be up to
Machen, a transfer from Kent State, to shine, or the Bear high-octane
passing attack will go nowhere and any dreams of a bowl season will be
shot in the first month.
The season will be a
success if
... BU wins six games. It might be a bit of a reach considering the
strength of the Big 12 South, but with three near-certain non-conference
wins, Baylor will have a nice base to build on. The passing game, if
it’s sharper than last season, should be enough to shock at least one or
two Big 12 teams looking ahead to something bigger.
Key game:
Oct. 6 vs. Colorado. If
everything goes according to form, the Bears should be 3-2 in September.
If they have any hope of going to a bowl game, they need the fourth win
as early as possible, with the meat of the Big 12 schedule coming up.
However, Colorado has lost two straight to BU and won’t take this
lightly.
2006 Fun Stats:
- Second quarter scoring: Opponents 126; Baylor 47
- Sacks: Opponents 36 for 320 yards; Baylor 11 for 83 yards
- Rushing yards per game: Opponents 191.1; Baylor 40.2
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