ACC Fearless Predictions, Sept. 8

CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Sep 6, 2007


Previews and Predictions for the Week 2 ACC Games.


ACC
Atlantic Boston Coll | ClemsonFlorida St | Maryland | NC State | Wake Forest
Coastal Duke | Georgia Tech | Miami | North Carolina | Virginia | Virginia Tech

ACC Fearless Predictions Sept. 1Sept. 15
Sept. 22 | Sept. 29 
Oct. 6Oct. 13 | Oct. 20Oct. 27 | Nov. 3Nov. 10 | Nov. 17Nov. 24Dec. 1

How are the picks so far? SU: 7-2 ... ATS: 5.2

ACC Fearless Predictions, Week Two, Part 2

ACC Game of the Week

Virginia Tech (1-0) at LSU (1-0) 9:15 PM ESPN
Why to Watch: This is the non-conference game we've been waiting eight months for. It's a battle between two of the best defenses in America and two BCS Championship caliber teams in a game that'll go a long way to shaping the national title race. Virginia Tech has to show that the sluggish 17-7 win over East Carolina had more to do with the weight and emotion of the outside circumstances than the potential problems on offense, while the Tigers are looking for the type of early season victory that would cement them in the top two as long as they keep winning. The defenses will be flying around and doing lots and lots of hitting in what should be a heavyweight war for a full sixty minutes. It's a who's who of star defensive players from LSU's Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson, to Virginia Tech's Vince Hall, Xavier Adibi and Brandon Flowers, and it should be your dream come true if you like low scoring slugfests. It's also a dream come true for everyone looking for great games.
Why Virginia Tech Might Win: As long as the Hokies can win the turnover battle, they have a shot. Mississippi State didn't play all that poorly against LSU, considering it was a 45-0 blowout, but it couldn't hang on to the ball and it allowed the Tiger offense to fire away from close range. The LSU attack still needs to prove it can be consistent, and if the Hokies don't screw up, play ball control offense, and force LSU to go on long drives, this will be close throughout. Punter Brent Bowden had a good opening day and should do his part to pin the Tigers deep.
Why LSU Might Win: The Virginia Tech offensive line struggled against East Carolina's defensive front, and LSU's is far better. The Hokie formula has been to play great defense, win the special teams battle, and run effectively, but LSU is all but certain to take RB Branden Ore out of the equation and make QB Sean Glennon try to win the game. Glennon can be effective if he gets time, but the LSU pass rush could be too much for a Hokie line that gave up four sacks last week.
Who to Watch: Call this a validation game for two controversial figures. Glennon started off his season by throwing his first pass for an interception, and then went 22 of 33 for 245 yards and a touchdown against East Carolina. While he's been good at times, he hasn't been consistent, and many see him as the one piece of the puzzle that's holding the Hokies back and keeping them from being a true national title contender. He needs to be razor sharp in his decision making, and he has to be absolutely sure on his throws against a lightning fast Tiger D. For LSU, new offensive coordinator Gary Crowton has to prove to the Tiger faithful that his attack can generate points against a top flight defense. While the Tigers put up 45 points on Mississippi State, the offense was hardly smooth and was helped by a D that forced seven turnovers. Virginia Tech's defense is good at making offenses look bad, but if Crowton is the elite coach he's supposed to be, the LSU offense should still produce.
What Will Happen: The Hokies won 26-8 in Blacksburg in the first and only meeting in 2002, but the Tiger program has progressed by leaps and bounds since then. The Tigers are a little better on defense, and a lot better on offense, so as long as they're patient and don't give the Hokies any big breaks, they'll come up with a tough, somewhat ugly win.
CFN Prediction: LSU 20 ... Virginia Tech 13
... Line:  LSU -8
Must See Rating: (5 Mad Men - 1 Chelsea Lately) ... 5
Final Score: 
 

SEC Saturday, September 1

NC State (0-1) at Boston College (1-0) 2:30 PM ESPN2
Why to Watch: Forget the fact that Boston College can sprint to a 2-0 lead on the way to a possible ACC Atlantic Division title, this one is all about the return of former Eagles coach Tom O’Brien to his old stomping grounds. O’Brien, who directed BC to six straight bowl wins before abdicating last year for what he considered a better opportunity in Raleigh, must find a way to make sure his Wolfpack doesn’t stagger out of the blocks as it did in a 25-23 loss to Central Florida last Saturday. BC, meanwhile, is on a high after overcoming some early troubles of its own to whip Wake Forest.
Why North Carolina State Might Win: Who knows BC better than O’Brien? The former coach will have his team as prepared as anyone will be for the Eagles all year. This week, he had to make a big call. Instead of going with Daniel Evans, who showed excellent decision making but limited arm strength during the pre-season and broke BC’s heart last year with a game-winning touchdown pass as time ran out, O’Brien is giving the starting nod to Nebraska transfer Harrison Beck, who threw for 207 yards and two scores last week. Beck may not be as judicious as Evans, but he has the arm strength to stretch the field. BC was sharp in the passing game last week, with QB Matt Ryan throwing for 408 yards and five scores, but the ‘Pack allowed just 93 yards passing against UCF, so it might be able to keep the air-happy Eagles grounded somewhat.

Why Boston College Might Win
: The Eagles will be able to load up against Beck, because top Wolfpack tailback Toney Baker suffered a season-ending knee injury against the Knights. Not that Baker was a revelation against UCF, since he and his fellow State backs were limited to minus-14 yards rushing in the first half last Saturday. And when Beck does pass, he’ll have to deal with senior corner DeJuan Tribble, who picked off three passes last week as the leader of a strong Eagle back seven. The Eagles weren’t a ground juggernaut against the Deacons, but the expected return of tailback L.V. Whitworth should fortify their running attack.
Whom to Watch
: Ryan may not be on anybody’s Heisman short list quite yet, but his opening salvo last week against the Demon Deacons certainly caught the eyes of NFL scouts, who are considering him for first-round status come April. Ryan did throw two picks against Wake, but he completed 61.5% of his passes and showed the kind of versatile skills and leadership necessary to be a big-time prospect and winner at this level. This is his team, and if he’s the star he’s supposed to be, he won’t let the Eagles lose to a mediocre team like State.
What Will Happen
: Beck should do well statistically, but with no ground game to speak of, he won’t have much time and will make some shaky throws. BC, meanwhile, will continue its fast start on the arm of Ryan. 
CFN Prediction:
Boston College 38 ... NC State 20 ... Line:  Boston College -16.5
Must See Rating: (5 Mad Men - 1 Chelsea Lately) ... 2
Final Score: 
 

UL Monroe (0-1) at Clemson (1-0) 1:00 PM GamePlan
Why to Watch: If you liked what you saw in the first half of Clemson’s 24-18 win over Florida State in the Bowden Bowl, then you should be tickled Saturday. The Tigers may suffer a bit of a letdown, and if UL Monroe plays like it did last year in the oh-so-close 42-40 loss to Kentucky, and catches a big break or five, this could be closer than expected. The Tiger speed is something to behold, and the blitzing defense can be hellish, provided there is some discipline among its members, but ULM can run, too.
Why UL Monroe Might Win: The Warhawks ran the ball well last week against Tulsa, and in tailback Calvin Dawson (150 yards vs. the Golden Hurricane), they have a proven ballcarrier with more than 2,000 career yards and nine 100-yard games. The Warhawks also held a 17-14 halftime lead against Tulsa, so they have the potential to scare a better opponent, provided they can sustain the success and get the running game going. If this gets close, ULM has a weapon in kicker Cole Wilson, who has made 12 straight field goals.
Why Clemson Might Win: If the team that held FSU to a mere 62 total yards in the first half shows up, en route to a 24-3 halftime lead, there is no “might” here. Clemson will win by 50. But the Tigers have to be focused and can’t let down. The blitzing Tiger D that forced the ‘Noles into eight first-half punts and an 0-for-9 success rate on third down, and which registered five sacks, should be stout enough to shut down Dawson. ULM QB Kinsmon Lancaster threw for just 66 yards against Tulsa and isn’t likely to turn it up a notch against the speedy Tiger secondary.
Who to Watch: Clemson QB Cullen Harper had a solid debut and certainly silenced the people who were clamoring for an early unveiling of true freshman Willy Korn. Harper completed 14-of-24 passes for 160 yards and two touchdowns. He didn’t make too many bad decisions and was in charge of the offense. He even overcame some adversity when guards Thomas Austin and Brandon Pilgrim had to leave the game with injuries. While he isn’t going to wow too many people, that’s not his job. As long as he doesn’t turn it over and lets the star running backs James Davis and C.J. Spiller do their jobs, the Tigers will roll.
What Will Happen: The Warhawks may be able to stick around for a while, because Clemson is coming off an emotional game and a short week, but there’s a big difference between scaring Tulsa for a half in front of 22,000 in Monroe and hanging with the Tigers before 83,000 in Death Valley.  
CFN Prediction:
Clemson 45 ... UL Monroe 10 ... Line:  Clemson -23
Must See Rating: (5 Mad Men - 1 Chelsea Lately) ... 2
Final Score: 
 

Duke (0-1) at Virginia (0-1)
Why to Watch: The two most inept ACC teams last week, with each coming off humiliating losses, need to do something positive very, very quickly. Duke managed but 169 total yards in a 45-14 loss to Connecticut, but that looked like an old Oklahoma wishbone juggernaut performance compared to what Virginia managed in the 23-3 loss to Wyoming. The Cavaliers were able to muster but 110 yards in the loss, the team’s lowest total since 1980. UVA had just over 19 minutes of possession, had five first downs and only seven yards rushing. As the old cliché goes, “Something’s got to give.”
Why Duke Might Win: The Blue Devils have lost 20 in a row, and has only beaten one FBS team in their last 31 games, but they have a shot if the defense, which played well enough in the first three quarters of the game against Connecticut, can pitch 60 minutes against the Cavaliers. Given UVA’s offensive woes, that’s a distinct possibility. Linebacker Vincent Rey is the who can quickly kickstart the D and the one who needs to be the main man against the run after making 17 tackles in his first ever start.
Why Virginia Might Win: The Blue Devils went on an 80-yard touchdown drive on their first possession against UConn, and managed 89 yards the rest of the way. They’re not likely to put 50 on the board. For the Virginia offense, they are sticking with starter Jameel Sewell this Saturday even after putting in Peter Lalich to try to get things going. Sewell completed just 11-of-23 passes for 87 yards, but he was strong at the end of last year and has the talent to carry the game by himself. What he needs is some consistency, and to get the ball more to freshman Staton Jobe, who averaged 13.5 yards on his two catches against the Cowboys. The Virginia defense may have given up 471 total yards to Wyoming, but that’s what happens when the offense leaves you on the field all day. This is a better unit than that, and the shaky Duke defense gives it a chance to make up for last Saturday’s statistical meltdown. The Cavs will also get a field position edge thanks to Duke’s shaky punting game. The Blue Devils punted seven times last week, with the longest a 35-yarder.
Whom to Watch: Sewell is a run-pass type who led the team in rushing and throwing yardage in ’06 and has the potential to be a spread-attack monster. What he must do against Duke is resist the temptation to do everything himself and trust his ground game. When he does throw, he has to be sharper, since the Cavaliers do have a bunch of targets at his disposal. Sewell is just a sophomore, so his best days are well ahead of him, but at 6-3, 219, with a strong arm and good legs, he can make plays.
What Will Happen: At home, the Cavaliers should get somewhat healthy against the hapless Blue Devils, who have problems on both sides of the ball and lack the depth to hang tough for four full quarters. Virginia isn’t exactly a juggernaut, but it has more talent than Duke.
CFN Prediction: Virginia 28 ... Duke 16 ... Line:  Virginia -16
Must See Rating: (5 Mad Men - 1 Chelsea Lately) ... 2
Final Score: 
 

UAB
(0-1) at Florida State (0-1) 5:00 PM ESPNU
Why to Watch: This one can be instructional if only to see whether FSU can rebound after a lousy outing, at least for around three quarters, in the 24-18 Bowden Bowl loss to Clemson. The ‘Noles fell into a 24-3 halftime hole, and though they fought back late, they couldn’t get all the way out. Most disconcerting were the myriad errors made on both sides of the ball. Mental mistakes, lack of discipline, dropped passes and missed tackles all contributed to the shaky debut. As for UAB, its fans are wondering what in the world happened at Michigan State, even though this is supposed to be a rebuilding year in every way. Early in the second quarter, the Spartans held a 35-0 lead and were on their way to a laugher. New coach Neil Callaway could use a breather, and he isn’t going to get it with a visit to Tallahassee against a mad team.
Why UAB Might Win: The only hope to keep this close is if FSU is a bit cashed after a short week. The Blazers looked awful against Michigan State, and it will take a dramatic turnaround to hang in. Some good news came from quarterback Sam Hunt, who threw for 214 yards and a score, but the UAB ground attack must improve, after managing just 13 yards on 25 carries. That was bad, but so were the 298 yards and five TDs amassed by the Spartans against the Blazers. FSU’s front offensive wall is shaky, so UAB has a chance to get better against the run.
Why Florida State Might Win: There’s no possible way the Seminoles can be as inept as they were against Clemson, is there? The first half alone was a disgrace: 62 yards of total offense, eight punts and no success in nine third-down conversion attempts. Blame part of it on nerves, since the team was clearly tight playing in coordinator Jimbo Fisher’s new attack. You can credit an offensive line that had a true freshman, redshirt frosh and sophomore among its starters. But FSU wasn’t buttoned down on either side of the ball, and you can’t blame youth on captains De’Cody Fagg and Greg Carr, each of whom dropped two passes that would have been first-down conversions. So, FSU will be looser and more focused, and the defense that missed so many tackles will be more disciplined. That’s why UAB is the perfect opponent. The Blazers look to be extremely overmatched, something which should give the Seminoles confidence. Even though QB Drew Weatherford wasn’t spectacular (17-of-34, 142 yards), he did complete 10-of-18 after intermission for 114 yards and two scores. And the defense that looked rotten in the first half, pitched a shutout and allowed just 82 total yards in the second.
Who to Watch: It’s all about Fisher, who was advertised as the man who would fix the FSU offense. There is still time for that to happen, but he had better make sure this team doesn’t have the same mental lapses it did against Clemson. Players lined up in the wrong spots. Assignments were missed. Passes were dropped. Fisher brings a new creativity to the offense, but he had better make sure there is sufficient discipline, too, because the ‘Noles don’t have the pure talent on that side of the ball to overcome mistakes.
What Will Happen: It’s all about Florida State’s mood. If it comes out focused and fired up, it’ll roll with ease. More than likely, this will be a workmanlike performance by Florida State with a few big plays sprinkled in here and there to get the Nole fans happy for a little while.

CFN Prediction: Florida State 45 ... UAB 10
... Line:  FSU -34
Must See Rating: (5 Mad Men - 1 Chelsea Lately) ... 1.5
Final Score:


ACC Fearless Predictions, Week Two, Part 2
 


  

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