ACC Fearless Predictions, Nov. 24

Previews and Predictions for the Week 13 ACC Games.

ACC
Atlantic Boston Coll | Clemson | Florida St | Maryland | NC State | Wake Forest
Coastal Duke | Georgia Tech | Miami | North Carolina | Virginia | Virginia Tech

ACC Fearless Predictions Sept. 1 | Sept. 8 | Sept. 15 | Sept. 22 | Sept. 29 
Oct. 6 | Oct. 13 | Oct. 20 | Oct. 27 | Nov. 3 | Nov. 10 | Nov. 17 | Dec. 1

How are the picks so far? SU: 60-27 ... ATS: 38-41-1

ACC Week 13 Predictions, Part 2

ACC Game of the Week

Virginia Tech (9-2) at Virginia (9-2)  12:00, ESPN2
Why to watch: When Virginia and Virginia Tech hook up, it’s always intense, but when a berth in the ACC Championship game is at stake, the game has appeal well beyond the commonwealth.  The winner of Saturday’s game in Charlottesville will bag the Coastal Division and a spot in the league title game opposite Boston College.  Although the Cardiac Cavaliers have lived on the edge all season, they’re coming off an impressive 48-0 whitewash of Miami before last weekend’s bye.  Besides DE Chris Long, Virginia has no star power, yet, like Wake Forest a year ago, it just keeps finding ways to win games.  Virginia Tech’s response to a belly-flop against Boston College on Oct. 25 has been three impressive wins in-a-row, including symbolic blowouts of Florida State and Miami.  The Hokies are peaking on both sides of the ball, getting pressure from the defense, contributions from both quarterbacks, and improved play from the offensive line.  An added bonus has been the re-emergence of all-star LB Vince Hall, who had 13 tackles in last week’s return from a broken wrist.
Why Virginia Tech might win: Can Virginia do enough on offense to win this game?  Yeah, the Cavaliers ripped Miami two weeks ago, but they’ve struggled for consistency all year, getting spotty production from QB Jameel Sewell and a running game that’s been hampered by injuries.  In a five-week stretch from Oct. 6 to Nov. 3, the ‘Hoos averaged less than 20 points a game, which is more indicative of their offensive potential.  The Hokies’ ACC-best defense will present a major challenge to Virginia, suffocating an opponent that lacks the necessary speed, and is noticeably low on firepower.
Why Virginia might win: There’s rarely much logic to the Cavs’ victories, but they just keep winning.  Fundamentally sound and at its best when the game is hanging in the balance, Virginia will be a tough out if the game is close late, especially at Scott Stadium.  The Cavaliers’ defense has been every bit as good as the one down in Blacksburg, getting at least two sacks on every Saturday, while holding opponents to an average of 17 points a game.  Against one of the ACC’s worst offensive lines at protecting the passer, Long and his bookend, Jeffrey Fitzgerald, will live in the Virginia Tech backfield.
Who to watch: In a low-scoring game that’ll be dictated by both defenses, the kickers will play a huge role in the outcome.  Good thing for Virginia and Virginia Tech that they’re set at the position with Chris Gould and Jud Dunlevy, respectively, two of the ACC’s best kickers.  The seniors have combined to go 32-of-39 on field goals, while displaying a knack for converting in the clutch.  If either kicks the game-winner this weekend, it should surprise no one.
What will happen: Virginia Tech is pining for another shot at Boston College.  It’ll get it by handling Virginia in a physical and emotional battle that’s decided by three Dunlevy field goals and a couple of short touchdown runs by RB Branden Ore.
CFN Prediction: Virginia Tech 23 … Virginia 16 ... Line: Virginia Tech -3.5
Must See Rating: (5 The inside of your eyelids after eating two pounds of turkey  - 1 The inside of a gym with every 120 calories equaling a mile on the treadmill) ...5

ACC Saturday, November 24th

Miami (5-6) at Boston College (9-2) 12:00 EST, ESPN
Why to watch: For the first time since joining the ACC, Boston College won a pivotal game to stay in the BCS bowl hunt, surprising Clemson in Death Valley Saturday night.  The Eagles got a Matt Ryan to Rich Gunnell touchdown pass late in the fourth quarter to seal up the Atlantic Division and a spot opposite either Virginia or Virginia Tech in next week’s league title game.  With little to gain and his team dinged up, it’ll be interesting to see if Jeff Jagodzinski treats this week’s visit from Miami like an NFL team in Week 16 that’s already clinched a playoff spot.  The Hurricanes are in disarray, having lost three straight by a combined score of 111-30, and are staring at their first losing season since 1997.  The focus for the program has gradually shifted toward 2008, with head coach Randy Shannon increasing the roles of his underclassmen.  Miami has won 15 straight over Boston College, last losing in 1984 when Doug Flutie’s signature heave wound up in Gerard Phelan’s chest.
Why Miami might win: Sandwiched between a historically important win over Clemson and the ACC Championship game is a floundering Miami squad that will not bring out the best in Boston College.  Of course the Eagles want to finally beat the ‘Canes, but they’ll be more concerned about getting to Jacksonville at peak health.  Miami is still home to defensive playmakers, such as linemen Calais Campbell and Vegas Franklin, and LB Colin McCarthy, who’ll create problems for a Boston College offense that doesn’t have much support for Ryan at the skill positions.
Why Boston College might win: Expecting Miami to suddenly turn things around on a cold afternoon in Massachusetts is unrealistic.  By many standards, this is a bad football team that’s struggling to score points, sliding to 108^th nationally in total offense.  The play of quarterbacks Kyle Wright and Kirby Freeman has been awful, and the backs won’t go anywhere against the country’s top-ranked run defense.  If the Hurricanes are to reach double digits, they’ll need the defense and the special teams to give the offense some short-field opportunities.
Who to watch: Jamie Silva isn’t the biggest or the fastest safety in the ACC, but he is the emotional leader of the Boston College defense, a big hitter and Thorpe Award finalist with nine picks over the last two years.  He’ll be a rude awakening for a Miami corps of receivers that’s trying to break in young kids, such as true freshman Leonard Hankerson and sophomore Ryan Hill.
What will happen: With an eye toward next week, don’t expect an “A” game out of Boston College.  The Eagles will do just enough to snap the losing streak against Miami, getting the starters off the field as early as possible.  
CFN Prediction: Boston College 35 … Miami 14 ... Line: Boston College -14
Must See Rating: (5 The inside of your eyelids after eating two pounds of turkey  - 1 The inside of a gym with every 120 calories equaling a mile on the treadmill) ...3

Maryland (5-6) at North Carolina State (5-6)   12:00 PM  GamePlan
Why to Watch: Both teams are trying to reach .500 for the season, with different motivations. The Terps are trying to avoid a third losing season in the past four, a skid that killed a talented, athletic team with high hopes after a great beginning. North Carolina State, meanwhile, is gunning for its fifth win in six games as it looks to finish off the regular season with a huge turnaround. The winner will be bowl eligible and should find a place somewhere. It might be a trip to Boise, but a bowl game is a bowl game and neither of these teams would look a gift trip in the mouth.
Why Maryland Might Win: The Terps are doing it lately with passing, which is a bit of a switch, since they were originally trying for balance with backs Keon Lattimore and Lance Ball, who weren’t able to get any traction in last week’s loss to Florida State. They should find more room against the Wolfpack’s 82^nd rated run defense that’s improved over the last few weeks, but still hasn’t been a consistent brick wall. The Terps are fairly stout stopping the run thanks to big-tackling junior linebackers Erin Henderson (116 stops) and Dave Philistin (110), and State isn’t exactly cranking out huge yards. Maryland has also done a good job of forcing turnovers this year with a plus-six margin. Winning the turnover battle might not be a must to win, but it would certainly do wonders on the road. State isn’t afraid to give the ball away.
Why North Carolina State Might Win: Last week’s 38-18 loss to Wake Forest notwithstanding, the Wolfpack has closed the season in fine fashion and can put an exclamation point on the campaign with a win. If Jamelle Eugene struggles on the ground, as he did last week against Wake after an impressive stretch, expect Daniel Evans to take over, not such a bad thing of late. State’s defense has become tougher and tougher to solve in the last several weeks thanks to a revamped secondary and improvement across the front four. Especially tough against the pass, State should stuff the Terp running game while playing into Maryland’s current strength, QB Chris Turner’s passing yards.      
Who to Watch: State’s improvement on defense has been the main reason for the resurgence, but so has the increased role of Evans. Through the first six weeks of the season he attempted just 82 passes and struggled to get his starting job back. Since then, he has thrown at least 40 times in all five games and hasn’t been shy about pushing it deep. Last week he struggled some with 56 tries, but he has thrown eight TD passes during that stretch and had a pair of 300-yard games. He’s not always the most efficient passer, but he can get the ball downfield and won’t be afraid to take chances, for good and bad.
What Will Happen: The Wolfpack may have taken a step backward last week, but it’ll bomb its way back on track while completing Maryland’s collapse.
CFN Prediction: NC State 24 … Maryland 20 ... Line: NC State -1.5
Must See Rating: (5 The inside of your eyelids after eating two pounds of turkey  - 1 The inside of a gym with every 120 calories equaling a mile on the treadmill) ...2.5

Wake Forest (7-4) at Vanderbilt (5-6)  2:00 PM
Why to watch: By beating NC State last Saturday, Wake Forest locked down back-to-back bowl games for the first time in school history.  You’ll have to forgive a green-with-envy Vanderbilt, which hasn’t bowled since 1982, and blew an ideal opportunity last week in Knoxville to end the drought leading Tennessee by 15 points in the final quarter before the bottom fell out in one of the most crushing defeats of the Bobby Johnson era.  Vanderbilt has gone the distance with the Volunteers, Georgia, and Kentucky before losing each game by 11 points combined.  At 6-6, the ‘Dores will be bowl eligible, which is code for one win shy of an invitation.  Wake has been Wake all year, wowing no one, yet scaring everyone that mistakenly takes it lightly.  The Demon Deacons will be looking for win No. 8 in Nashville along with a chance to improve their postseason positioning.
Why Wake Forest might win: After last week’s collapse at Tennessee, how in the world does Vandy get back up for a non-conference game?  Commodore QB Mackenzi Adams has shown flashes of potential as a sophomore, but his progress will be temporarily halted by an aggressive Deacon secondary that’s filled with thieves.  Wake Forest has picked off 16 passes, led by gambling CB Alphonso Smith’s six, a concern for a young hurler that’s been battling inconsistency.  If the SEC’s worst pass offense doesn’t click, the Deacons can focus their attention to stopping Cassen Jackson-Garrison and the running game.
Why Vanderbilt might win: The Commodores have been able to stay with more talented this fall because the defense has been outstanding in all but the Florida game.  Led by LBs Jonathan Goff and Marcus Buggs, and S D.J. Moore, Vanderbilt has held opponents to 21 points and 327 yards a game.  The methodical and predictable Wake Forest offense will have a tough time moving the chains on a veteran defense that limits the long plays and doesn’t miss many tackles.
Who to watch: If there’s a headliner on the Wake Forest offense it’s WR Kenny Moore, who may not have jets, but possesses terrific football speed.  The most versatile player in Winston-Salem, he has a school-record 78 catches for 860 yards and five touchdowns, adding 34 carries for 307 yards and three more scores.  Oh, he’s also one of the league’s most dangerous punt returners, so Vanderbilt figures to have No. 21 in the crosshairs at all times.
What will happen: If moral victories counted toward bowl eligibility, Vanderbilt might be packing its bags for the Music City Bowl.  The Commodores will lose another close one, bowing to the Wake Forest defense late in a toss-up game.
CFN Prediction: Wake Forest 27 ... Vanderbilt 21 ... Line: Wake Forest -2
Must See Rating: (5 The inside of your eyelids after eating two pounds of turkey  - 1 The inside of a gym with every 120 calories equaling a mile on the treadmill) ...2.5

ACC Week 13 Predictions, Part 2