Big East Fearless Predictions, Sept. 8

Previews and Predictions for the Week 2 Big East Games.

Big East 
Cincinnati | Connecticut | Louisville | Pittsburgh | Rutgers
South Florida | Syracuse | West Virginia

Big East Fearless Predictions Sept. 1 | Sept. 15 | Sept. 22 | Sept. 29 
Oct. 6 | Oct. 13 | Oct. 20 | Oct. 27 | Nov. 3 | Nov. 10 | Nov. 17 | Nov. 24 | Dec. 1 How are the picks so far? SU: 7-1 ... ATS: 3-2

Big East Fearless Predictions, Week Two, Part 2

Big East Game of the Week

South Florida (1-0) at Auburn (1-0) 9:00 PM ESPN2
Why to watch: South Florida has traveled light years in just a decade, but to really garner national attention, the Bulls will need to gore a name brand, out of conference opponent.  Auburn, for instance.  Quite possibly looking ahead to this Saturday, USF was sluggish and inconsistent in its 28-13 victory over I-AA Elon.  The Bulls will again be led by versatile sophomore QB Matt Grothe and an attacking defense.  The wild card is true freshman RB Mike Ford, a former Alabama commit, who’s commanding more playing time after exploding for 84 yards and three scores on just seven touches.  Auburn also had trouble in its opener, narrowly surviving with a 23-13 win over a feisty Kansas State team that had the game in hand, but blew it late.  If the Tigers are going to compete for an SEC title, it’ll be on the backs of a defense that only allowed one touchdown and 27 rushing yards Saturday night.  Offensively, on the other hand, they’ve got a serious shortage of reliable blockers and dangerous playmakers to support veteran QB Brandon Cox.
Why South Florida might win: The Bulls have the defensive speed and tenacity to harass a young Auburn line that starts two freshmen and is really struggling in pass protection.  In particular, they’ll have their hands full with speedy DE George Selvie, who began his sophomore season with a whopping six tackles for loss and four sacks.  With corners Trae Williams and Mike Jenkins blanketing the Tiger receivers and Cox short on time, it’ll be up to a depleted backfield to move the ball on the South Florida defense.
Why Auburn might win: If the USF offense executes this weekend like it did last weekend, it won’t score.  Auburn’s defense is the fastest the Bulls will see all year, and there’s no one on the offensive line that can contain ends Quentin Groves and Sen’Derrick Marks.  Without much help from the running game, Grothe will try to do too much and be forced into making poor decisions.
Who to watch: The Auburn kickers.  Starter Wes Byrum is nursing a badly injured ankle, meaning kicking duties could be handled by a couple of complete unknowns, either freshman Graham Sutter or sophomore Zach Kutch.  In a low-scoring game that might be decided by the special teams, the Tigers’ fate could rest on the foot of a frighteningly inexperienced kicker.
What will happen: While this is not a vintage Tommy Tuberville team, Auburn will escape with a close home win for the second straight weekend.  Points will come at a premium, making the turnover battle even more critical than usual. 
CFN Prediction: Auburn 21 ... South Florida 13 ... Line: Auburn -6
Must See Rating: (5 Mad Men - 1 Chelsea Lately) ... 4
Final Score:   

SEC Thursday, September 6

Oregon State (1-0) at Cincinnati (1-0)  7:30 p.m. ESPN
Why to watch: One-sided opening day wins by both Oregon State and Cincinnati have made this first-ever meeting between the schools a little more intriguing than when schedules were first released.  The Beavers toughed out a 24-7 win over a battered Utah team, getting a great game from the defense and an MVP-type effort from RB Yvenson Bernard.  A rare road trip to the Eastern Time Zone will answer questions about an Oregon State offense that still hasn’t decided whether Sean Canfield or Lyle Moevao is capable of handling the quarterback job on a full-time basis.  Beating Southeast Missouri State was no great accomplishment for Cincinnati, but the way it did it was impressive.  In the debut of Brian Kelly’s new no-huddle attack, the Bearcats and new QB Ben Mauk rolled up more than 600 yards of offense for the first time in over two decades, a sign that the offensive personnel may not be such a bad fit for the system after all.  With a win over a quality Pac-10 team, the expectations in Kelly’s first season will change dramatically.  
Why Oregon State might win: The Beaver D represents a stark contrast to what Cincinnati witnessed last Thursday.  It’s a veteran group that creates turnovers, pressures the quarterback, and explodes on contact.  In the opener, Oregon State had five sacks and allowed just 196 yards to the usually potent Ute offense.  After roaming without resistance last week, the unproven Cincinnati receivers are about to experience a rude awakening from the likes of S Al Afalava, who sees wide-open passing offenses every week in the Pac-10.
Why Cincinnati might win: The Bearcats have a rugged defense of their own, which can stack the box on Bernard as long as the Beaver passing game continues to perform sporadically.  The return of All-Big East DT Terrill Byrd from a suspension coincides with the loss of All-Pac-10 G Jeremy Perry to injury, both of which will give an edge to the Cincy run defense.  If the fate of the Oregon State offense rests with either Canfield or Moevao, Bearcat CB Mike Mickens might catch more passes than any Beaver receiver.
Who to watch: Will he or won’t he play?  There are hints coming out of Corvallis that playmaking WR Sammie Stroughter could make an appearance this Thursday night after sitting out most of the last month for personal reasons.  He’s been practicing the last few days and will make the trip, which has the potential to be breaking news for the Beaver passing game and punt return team.  With his return, the Oregon State attack goes from dangerous to lethal, as he’ll open things up that much more for the ground game.
What will happen: Cincinnati is clearly headed in the right direction under Kelly, but Oregon State represents a step up in competition that the Bearcats aren’t quite ready to navigate.  The Beavers will get another workmanlike performance from Bernard and the defense, and an emotional lift from Stroughter to pick up another low-scoring, blue-collar victory.  
CFN Prediction:Oregon State 27 ... Cincinnati 16 ... Line: Oregon State -5
Must See Rating: (5 Mad Men - 1 Chelsea Lately) ... 3
Final Score:   

Middle Tennessee (0-1) at Louisville (1-0) 7:00 PM ESPN2
Why to watch: Okay, so the opponent was I-AA Murray State, but the Louisville offense, now being run by Steve Kragthorpe, looked every bit as combustible as when Bobby Petrino was in town.  Behind the passing of Heisman contender Brian Brohm and the big-play receiving of Harry Douglas, the Cards racked up 73 points and 655 yards of total offense.  With a key showdown against Kentucky looming a week from Saturday, Middle Tennessee State represents a necessary step up in competition, especially for a rebuilt defense that never got tested last Thursday night.  One year after raising expectations with a program-first bowl invite, the Blue Raiders opened the 2007 season by getting unceremoniously dumped by Florida Atlantic.  Middle Tennessee was sloppy in all facets of its opener, which needs to be addressed in a hurry if it’s going to keep Louisville from going over par for a second straight week.
Why Middle Tennessee might win: The Blue Raiders are not going to slow down the Louisville offense, even with a great defensive line that should crank out a little bit of pressure on Brohm, but they do have some pieces on offense to challenge a Cardinal D in transition.  QB Joe Craddock has experience in this system, and is surrounded by a bunch of seasoned vets in the receiving corps.  The Louisville secondary is still very much a work-in-progress that’s breaking in three new starters.
Why Louisville might win: Unless Middle Tennessee can find a way to ring up 50 points, it has no chance in this game.  There just isn’t enough overall MT firepower to put up the yards and scores needed to keep up the pace Louisville will set. The Cardinal offense is a sensational blend of speed, power, and unpredictability.  Much like last week, it’ll move up and down the field at will, never punting and affording third and fourth stringers a chance to get live game action.
Who to watch: Under Kragthorpe, Louisville plans to use the tight ends a little more, and has a couple of good ones in seniors Gary Barnidge and Scott Kuhn.  With so much attention being given to Douglas and Mario Urrutia on the outside, the 6-6, 235-pound Barnidge will be a season-long mismatch for opposing linebackers and safeties. He’s quickly becoming an interesting NFL prospect who should use this game to break out. 
What will happen: Louisville has one more opportunity to work out the kinks on both sides of the ball before traveling to Lexington next week to face a jacked up Kentucky.  The Cards will toy around for two quarters of fireworks and offensive domination before emptying the benches and getting the starters out of pads.   
CFN Prediction: Louisville 59 ... Middle Tennessee 10 ... Line:  Louisville -39
Must See Rating: (5 Mad Men - 1 Chelsea Lately) ... 1.5
Final Score:   

SEC Friday, September 7

Navy (1-0) at Rutgers (1-0) 7:00 p.m. ESPN
Why to watch: After easily disposing of Buffalo in front of a rare sellout crowd, No. 16 Rutgers gets a much tougher assignment this Friday against the Naval Academy and its high-octane ground game that’s looking for the program’s first really, really big win under Paul Johnson.  Last Thursday, the Scarlet Knights got a career-high 328 yards passing from Mike Teel and a school-record 248 receiving yards from Tiquan Underwood, harrowing developments for opponents looking to crowd the box to stop RB Ray Rice.  Navy struggled at times with lowly Temple on Friday before pulling away with a tougher-than-expected 30-19 victory in Philadelphia.  While the running game hummed behind QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada, FB Adam Ballard, and RB Shun White, the rebuilt defense displayed lots of room for improvement.  
Why Navy might win: Ballard’s return from last year’s broken leg gives the Middies’ potent running attack a physical presence to go along with the quickness of Kaheaku-Enhada and White.  Rutgers is still adjusting to the loss of four starters from last year’s solid front seven, and will get fed a steady diet of option plays from an offense that runs the system like a finely-tuned machine.   
Why Rutgers might win: Navy’s massive concerns on defense can be masked against Temple, but not in the face of a Rutgers offense that has a Heisman-caliber back and a passing game that looks dramatically improved compared to last season.  The Knights will dominate the Middies at the point of attack, allowing Rice to establish a personal high on the ground for a second straight week and Teel to play catch with Underwood and Kenny Britt.     
Who to watch: Rice.  Even though the junior ran for nearly 1,800 yards in 2006, he might be even better in 2007.  Considered just a step slow a year ago, Rice committed to improving his burst in the off-season, and it showed in the opener against Buffalo.  With big tackles Pedro Sosa and Jeremy Zuttah leading the way, a 200-yard day against an overmatched Navy defense is within reach.  If Teel and Underwood can keep doing that, then Rice becomes even more deadly.
What will happen: As usual, the Middies will get their yards on the ground, but will have absolutely no answers for the improving Rutgers offensive attack.  The Knights will jump out to an early lead, and never get challenged in the second half by Navy.      
CFN Prediction: Rutgers 37 ... Navy 13 ... Line:  Rutgers -14
Must See Rating: (5 Mad Men - 1 Chelsea Lately) ... 2.5
Final Score:   

Big East Fearless Predictions, Week Two, Part 2