Big East Fearless Predictions, Sept. 29

It's statement time. South Florida and West Virginia have a good recent history of battles, and now Benjamin Williams and the Bulls will look to stop the Mountaineers at home and throw its hat into the BCS ring. Check out all the picks, predictions and previews for this week's games.

Big East 
Cincinnati | Connecticut | Louisville | Pittsburgh | Rutgers
South Florida | Syracuse | West Virginia

Big East Fearless Predictions Sept. 1 | Sept. 8 | Sept. 15 | Sept. 22
Oct. 6 | Oct. 13 | Oct. 20 | Oct. 27 | Nov. 3 | Nov. 10 | Nov. 17 | Nov. 24 | Dec. 1

How are the picks so far? SU: 22-6 ... ATS: 10-12

Big East Fearless Predictions, Week Five, Part 2

Big East Game of the Week

Big East Friday, Sept. 28

West Virginia (4-0) at South Florida (3-0)  8:00 PM ESPN2
Why to watch: The first of a handful of round-robin games that’ll decide the Big East championship, and one of ten BCS bowl berths, makes for a wild Friday night game in what’s become something of a grudge match.  The Bulls became a national story by beating Auburn three weeks ago, but can become the story of the first month of 2007 by upsetting West Virginia for a second straight year.  The biggest game in USF history is also expected to attract the biggest crowd in the school’s history, a likely first-ever sellout that has students camping out in tents for the few remaining tickets.  In terms of electricity and anticipation for an up-and-coming program, expect a scene that mirrors last November’s game between Louisville and Rutgers.  The Mountaineers are steamrolling everything in their path, winning four games by an average of 30 points with the same formula of Patrick White and Steve Slaton that continues to work so well.  If West Virginia has any hopes of competing for national championship consideration, it has to handle one of the few ranked teams on the schedule, particularly with so many pollsters glued to the tube Friday night.  With Louisville running a fade route, a win over South Florida would make the ‘eers the prohibitive favorite to win the conference.
Why West Virginia might win: Has anyone been paying attention to the transformation of Jeff Casteel’s defense?  While the offensive stars get all the pub, the D sort of gets lost in the shuffle.  The unit that was maligned a year ago has had at least three sacks in all four games and is No. 15 in the country in total defense.  Led by linebackers Mortty Ivy, Marc Magro, and Reed Williams, the Mountaineers have been flying to the ball, creating turnovers, and making life easier for a secondary that’s still developing.  South Florida QB Matt Grothe is a sparkplug, but his supporting cast is just average and his line will have trouble with the West Virginia pass rush.  If the Mountaineers land a few blows early, the Bulls will labor to mount a comeback against an underrated defense that’s gaining confidence every week.
Why South Florida might win: West Virginia is all about the speed, but South Florida is the one program on the schedule that can neutralize the burners with a swarming D that ranks in the top ten nationally in total defense, pass efficiency defense, turnover margin, sacks, and tackles for loss.  Since becoming a starter early in 2005, Slaton has been held under 100 yards rushing just four times, twice by the Bulls, including last November’s 43-yard career low-point.  USF can also contain White with the shutdown tandem of CBs Mike Jenkins and Trae Williams, and the edge rushing of DE George Selvie, who leads the nation in sacks.  West Virginia won’t be contained all night, but it’ll snap off half the big plays it normally creates against lesser defenses.
Who to watch: In a nip-and-tuck game that could go either way, don’t be surprised if the kickers/punters, West Virginia’s Pat McAfee and South Florida’s Delbert Alvarado, play a huge part in the outcome.  Advantage Mountaineers.  Alvarado, in particular, bears watching after responding to four missed field goals in the Auburn game by going 3-of-3 in Saturday’s win over North Carolina.  If called upon late to win the game, can he be for USF what Jeremy Ito was to Rutgers in last year’s upset of Louisville?
What will happen: In a potential bear trap game with North Carolina, South Florida remained focused and destroyed the Heels 37-10, a clear sign that these Bulls are for real.  They’ll add another brick in the wall Friday night, getting some late-game heroics from Grothe and the defense that empty the stands at Raymond James Stadium and raise the ante for the program.
CFN Prediction: South Florida 28 … West Virginia 24 ... Line: West Virginia -7
Must See Rating: (5 Ken Burns' The War - 1 The Big Bang Theory) ... 5

Big East Saturday, Sept. 29

Akron (2-2) at Connecticut (4-0)  12:00 PM GamePlan
Why to watch: There have been so many surprising developments in the Big East this month, Connecticut’s improbable 4-0 start has been swept under the rug.  Although it was impossible to give the Huskies too much credit after beating Duke and Maine, and getting a gift win over Temple, Saturday’s 34-14 road thrashing of Pitt has somewhat altered the landscape.  While Connecticut is no threat to the upper echelon of the Big East, a win this week would bring it within one of bowl eligibility, something no one expected before we even reached October.  After a month of growing pains, physical pains, and a pair of games with Big Ten opponents, Akron feels pretty good about being 2-2.  Despite getting outplayed for much of the game by Kent State last Saturday, the Zips manufactured a feel-good, 27-20 victory that highlighted the program’s improved depth under J.D. Brookhart.
Why Akron might win: Let’s not too carried away with Connecticut.  This is the same program that just two weeks ago was spared the indignity of a home loss to Temple by a blown referee call on an apparent Owl touchdown.  The Zips have been held together by an underrated defense that leads the MAC in scoring defense, tackles for loss, and turnover margin, and held Ohio State to just 20 points and 363 yards earlier this month.  LB Brion Stokes has been living in opposing backfields and CB Reggie Corner already has three picks, red flags for a Husky offense that’s allowed 13 sacks and only managed 289 yards against Pitt in last week’s win.
Why Connecticut might win: That feisty, no-name Husky defense that went AWOL in 2006 appears to have returned to Storrs again in 2007.  Last week’s upset of Pittsburgh was mainly a product of six turnovers, three sacks, and a stifling run defense.  Ends Cody Brown and Julius Williams, and LBs Danny Lansanah and Lawrence Wilson are going to add to the misery of a young Akron offense that’s 107^th nationally in scoring, and is struggling to protect the quarterback.
Who to watch: A redshirt freshman that was even slated to start this year, Wilson has been a revelation for the Connecticut defense.  An initial stop-gap at the weakside for injured Ryan Henegan, he leads the Huskies with 37 tackles, and shows no signs of relinquishing his starting job.
What will happen: It won’t be pretty, but Connecticut will get just enough on the ground from RB Donald Brown and another solid effort from the defense to earn win No. 5.
CFN Prediction: Connecticut 28 … Akron 16 ... Line: Connecticut -13
Must See Rating: (5 Ken Burns' The War - 1 The Big Bang Theory) ... 2

Syracuse (1-3) at Miami University (1-3)  3:00 PM GamePlan
Why to watch: Syracuse delivered a whopper of a Week 4 headline, stunning Louisville and ending the Cards’ 20-game home winning streak in one of the biggest upsets in Big East history.  Will the win catapult the Orange program back to some degree of respectability or will it just be a footnote in an otherwise rancid season?  Syracuse can begin answering that question with a very winnable trip to play Miami this Saturday.  The RedHawks began the year by beating Ball State and taking Minnesota to overtime, but have been exposed by Cincinnati and Colorado over the last two weekends, losing by a combined score of 89-10.  Beyond some obvious issues on defense, Miami’s depth in the backfield is being tested by recent injuries to Brandon Murphy and Andre Bratton.
Why Syracuse might win: Orange QB Andrew Robinson had his long-awaited breakout game last Saturday, going 17-of-26 for 423 yards and four touchdown passes.  The sophomore showed what he can do with time, something he’ll get plenty of against a Miami defense that has just two sacks this season.  Since beating Ball State, the RedHawks have given up an average of 550 yards and 43 points a game, a trend that’ll continue against a suddenly confident Syracuse offense.
Why Miami University might win: Syracuse’s defeat of Louisville was impressive, but it doesn’t eliminate the first three games in which the Orange were horrendous in losses to Washington, Illinois, and Iowa.  This is still the same program that can’t run the ball, allows way too many sacks, and is 112^th nationally in total defense.  Playing well in back-to-back games has never been Syracuse’s calling card under Greg Robinson, so don’t be surprised if the RedHawk passing game recaptures the form that nearly fueled an upset at Minnesota.
Who to watch: It’s hard to tell when Robinson is ducking for cover, but Syracuse is home to a really dangerous one-two punch at receiver in Taj Smith and Mike Williams.  The pair combined for nine catches for 256 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s win, a preview of what it’s going to do this week against a really weak Miami defense.
What will happen: Miami is in a freefall on both sides of the ball, so even if Syracuse suffers a mild letdown this week, it’ll still get enough from an improving passing game to get out of Ohio with a second straight win.
CFN Prediction: Syracuse 31 … Miami University 17 ... Line: Syracuse -2
Must See Rating: (5 Ken Burns' The War - 1 The Big Bang Theory) ... 2

Maryland (2-2) at Rutgers (3-0)  3:30 PM ABC
Why to watch: The semi-pro portion of the 2007 schedule now behind it, Rutgers will finally face an opponent with a near equivalent amount of talent.  Are the Scarlet Knights worthy of being the No. 10 team in the country?  A visit from the Terrapins will go a long way to answering what games with Buffalo, Navy, and Norfolk State could not.  And with Louisville losing two straight and South Florida hosting West Virginia, a Rutgers win could elevate it to second-in-command in the Big East after the first month of the season.  Maryland will be trying to regroup from a devastating overtime loss to Wake Forest in a game it led 24-3 in the second half.  A trip to Piscataway represents an opportunity for the Terps to either bounce back with authority or skid to a crushing third straight loss.  These two schools recruit a lot of the same players, so the outcome could reverberate right through to February.
Why Maryland might win: Did you notice how Penn State played last week in Ann Arbor, its first game of the year against a quality opponent?  Rutgers is liable to suffer the same fate as it attempts to take a sizable step up in competition.  While the Knights were pounding Buffalo and Norfolk State, the Terps were grappling with West Virginia and Wake Forest, and will come in battle-tested.  Maryland also boasts the ACC’s top-rated pass defense, and a front seven that’s beefy and quick enough to slow down Heisman contender Ray Rice.  This is, by far, the most athletic team the Scarlet Knights have faced.
Why Rutgers might win: The Maryland offense is in disarray, a situation that’s not going to get better with this week’s visit north to face one of the Big East’s best defenses.  The Knights are going to feast on QB Jordan Steffy, who’s getting absolutely no protection up front and appears to be losing his confidence.  The Rutgers defense is short on star power, but it’s extremely well coached, rarely allows big plays, and will endure few issues containing this 98^th-ranked Terrapin attack.
Who to watch: Just how far Rutgers will go in 2007 hinges heavily on the maturation of junior QB Mike Teel.  So far, so good for the nation’s passing efficiency leader, but now he must elevate his game and prove he can get it done against a Maryland secondary that’s ninth nationally in pass defense, and has twice as many picks as touchdowns allowed.
What will happen: While Rice will get his yards and at least one touchdown, this game will be won by a Rutgers defense that will harass Steffy from the opening snap, and turn sacks and turnovers into quick points for the offense.
CFN Prediction: Rutgers 33 … Maryland 13 ... Line: Rutgers -15
Must See Rating: (5 Ken Burns' The War - 1 The Big Bang Theory) ... 3  

Big East Fearless Predictions, Week Five, Part 2