Louisville (3-3) at Cincinnati (6-0)
7:00 EST ESPNU Why to watch: Now do you believe
in Cincinnati? You should, because the
program is for real in Brian Kelly’s
first season in the Queen City. The
Bearcats continued their ascent up the
Big East ladder and the Top 25 polls
with a springboard win at Rutgers
Saturday night. When pushed for the
first time, they responded with 21
third-quarter points and a comeback win
on the road. Cincinnati has lost eight
of the last nine battles for the Keg of
Nails, so a win over Louisville would
exorcise a few demons and further cement
the program as a legit factor in this
year’s conference race. If the
Cardinals can’t turn things around, head
coach Steve Kragthorpe is going to
require a keg of a different kind. A
co-favorite at one time with West
Virginia to win the league, Louisville
has nose-dived to a 3-3 start that’s
been even more improbable than
Cincinnati’s first half heroics. With
West Virginia, South Florida, and
Rutgers still left on the docket, if the
bleeding doesn’t stop soon, the
Cardinals could actually miss the
postseason in 2007. Why Louisville might win: As long
as QB Brian Brohm is upright, the
Cardinals have a shot in every game.
The senior leads the Big East in total
offense, while throwing 20 touchdown
passes to just four interceptions in 259
attempts. He’s hoping to get back
receivers Harry Douglas and Mario
Urrutia, who were scratches in last
week’s loss to Utah, which will put
pressure on the Cincinnati secondary and
create more running room for Anthony
Allen. The Bearcats will realize over
the next two months that winning when
you’re expected to is a whole lot
tougher than sneaking up on opponents. Why Cincinnati might win:
Toothless. Awful. Uninspired. Feel
free to jump in with your own adjectives
to summarize the Louisville defense
because the pool of adequate
descriptions is beginning to run out.
The Cardinals D, which has been utterly
clueless since beating Murray State in
the opener, is about to walk into a
buzzsaw. Cincinnati has begun taking to
Kelly’s spread, averaging 43 points and
445 yards a game, while featuring
different headliners each weekend. You
want to stop the running game? QB Ben
Mauk will beat you through the air.
Play back for the pass? The ‘Cats
average 185 yards on the ground, and
have four backs that have gotten
considerable reps already. Pick your
poison, Louisville. Who to watch: Freshman WR Marcus
Barnett has been a godsend for a Cincy
offense that wasn’t sure if it would
have enough quality receivers this year
to fully install the spread. Already
the recipient of a team-high 28 catches
and six touchdowns, he’ll keep the good
times rolling versus a Louisville
secondary that’s given up 13 touchdown
passes and picked off just four. What will happen: A letdown game
for Cincinnati? Against any other
opponent, maybe. With Louisville in
town, however, the Bearcats will
capitalize on a rare opportunity to be
the hammer instead of the nail, for a
change. CFN Prediction:
Cincinnati
42 … Louisville 34...
Line: Cincinnati -10.5 Must See Rating: (5 Hideki
Matsui's "collection" - 1 The
Heartbreak Kid) ... 4
Big East Wednesday, Oct. 10
Navy (3-2) at Pitt (2-3)
8:00 EST, ESPN
Why to watch:
Pittsburgh will be trying to snap a
three-game losing streak when Navy
visits for a rare Wednesday nighter.
The Panthers have been plastered by
Connecticut and Virginia the last two
games and have been besieged all year by
injuries, most recently a season-ending
shoulder problem for RT Jason Pinkston.
With blue-chip true freshmen Pat Bostick
and LeSean McCoy taking over at
quarterback and tailback, respectively,
every Pitt game is a porthole to the
future of the program. McCoy is No. 3
in the Big East in rushing, and Bostick
is maturing faster than anticipated with
every snap he takes. With back-to-back
wins over Duke and Air Force, Navy is
halfway to bowl eligibility and a fifth
straight Commander-in-Chief’s trophy.
In other words, it’s quickly becoming
another typical season for the
Midshipmen under Paul Johnson. After
losing badly to Rutgers earlier in the
year, a trip to Heinz Field is an
opportunity for the Middies to prove
they can compete with Big East
competition. Why Navy might win: While the
defense was the backbone for Pitt in the
early going, it began showing cracks the
last two games, allowing 78 points and
failing to get a hand on Virginia QB
Jameel Sewell. The Panthers will have
their hands full this week with a Navy
triple-option that’s begun to purr, and
is fueling the nation’s top-ranked
running game behind QB Kaipo-Noa
Kaheaku-Enhada and FB Eric Kettani.
Discipline is the key to stopping the
option, and Pitt is 103rd in the country
in penalties. If the Middies can
sufficiently wear down the Pitt defense,
the Panther offense lacks the firepower
and consistency to play from behind,
averaging just 14 points in games in its
last three games. Why Pitt might win: Navy is
extremely young and shallow on defense,
which explains why it’s last nationally
in sacks and pass efficiency defense.
The Middies made Ball State’s Nate
Davis, Duke’s Thaddeus Lewis, and Air
Force’s Shaun Carney look like
All-American candidates in successive
weeks, which bodes real well for Bostick
and top receiver Oderick Turner. The
Panthers plan to gradually open up the
playbook for the freshman, who’ll have
somewhat of a national coming-out party
Wednesday night, making good use of his
receivers and tight ends. Who to watch: With former Pitt
greats Tony Dorsett and Curtis Martin on
hand, McCoy will show that he’s ready to
take the torch, flashing great power and
speed, while occasionally handling snaps
directly from center. If the Panther
offensive line can find a way to
graduate beyond horrible, its franchise
back will have the type of second half
that creates hope for 2008. What will happen: Navy will get
its yards on the ground, but the story
of the night will be Bostick. Against a
very beatable secondary, he’ll show why
he was one of the nation’s most coveted
quarterbacks in February, throwing a
couple of scoring strikes and leading
Pitt to a much-needed win. CFN Prediction:
Pitt 30 …
Navy 24 ...
Line: Pitt -4.5 Must See Rating: (5 Hideki
Matsui's "collection" - 1 The
Heartbreak Kid) ... 2
Big East Saturday, Oct. 13
UCF (3-2) at South Florida (5-0)
12:00, ESPNU Why to watch: South
Florida got a scare from Florida
Atlantic last week, which gives
Jim Leavitt just enough
ammunition to remind his team
that all of its prosperity can
evaporate with four bad
quarters. The Bulls were
surprisingly sloppy on defense,
which must be corrected, but
also showed resiliency by
holding on in a game they easily
could have lost. Now No. 5 in
both major polls, USF needs to
show it can play with a target
on its chest beginning with this
week’s visit from budding rival
UCF. The Knights have some
regrouping to do after playing
their worst game of the season,
a 52-38 loss to East Carolina
that could come back to haunt
them in the Conference USA East
race. After imploding in the
second half last Saturday, UCF
must bounce back quickly from
its low point of an otherwise
solid campaign. Head coach
George O’Leary believes the
Knights can get to where USF
currently resides, and a
program-first win over a ranked
team is exactly what they need
to catapult to the next level. Why UCF might win: The
South Florida defense showed
hints of vulnerability in Fort
Lauderdale last week, which will
be exposed by nation’s leading
rusher Kevin Smith and the
38-point-a-game Knight offense.
Smith has supercharged the
running game, while the
offensive line has allowed just
five sacks in five games, a
great sign with DE George Selvie
and the Bulls up next. USF has
turned the ball over eight times
in the last two games, and will
not dodge another bullet if it
continues to be careless with
the football. Why South Florida might win:
With Benjamin Williams running
well and Mike Ford returning
from a one-game suspension, the
Bulls will establish a ground
game versus a UCF defense that
got picked apart by East
Carolina in Greenville. On
defense, look for an inspired
effort from Selvie and the rest
of the nation’s 13th-ranked
scoring defense. The Big East’s
best pass defense will dominate
erratic Knight QB Kyle Israel,
picking off a couple of his
passes and taking one back for
six. UCF is also 116th in the
country defending kickoffs,
giving USF’s Jerome Murphy
plenty of chances for big
returns. Who to watch: The young
UCF receivers versus the veteran
USF secondary is a mismatch in
the Bulls’ favor. Corners Trae
Williams and Mike Jenkins and
safeties Nate Allen and Carlton
Williams form the best secondary
Israel and the Knights will face
this year. If Kamar Aiken and
Rocky Ross can’t soften the
South Florida defense, Smith
will labor to find running room
Saturday afternoon.
What will happen: Feeding
off the energy of the home
crowd, South Florida will
befuddle the UCF offense and
keep Smith from taking over the
game. Leavitt will ride
Williams, who bowled his way to
a school-record four scores last
week, to a perfect first half of
the season. CFN Prediction:
South
Florida 30 … UCF 17...
Line: South Florida -12 Must See Rating: (5
Hideki Matsui's "collection" - 1
The Heartbreak Kid)
... 2.5
Rutgers (3-2) at Syracuse (1-5)
12:00 EST ESPN GamePlan Why to watch: A top 10
program just a couple of weeks
ago, Rutgers is in danger of
plummeting to .500 after
suffering back-to-back home
losses to Maryland and
Cincinnati. While certainly not
horrible in either game, neither
the Knights running game nor the
defense has been close to as
good as last year. A timely
trip to Upstate New York offers
the program a chance to work out
the kinks on both sides of the
ball before make-or-break games
with South Florida and West
Virginia. If Rutgers stumbles
this week, a once promising
season has the potential to
completely unravel. Now that
Syracuse had its big win over
Louisville, the program is back
to being, well, Syracuse. The
Orange has lost two straight
since shocking the nation on
Sept. 22, making a visit from
Rutgers its equivalent of a bowl
game in 2007. Sustained
progress has not been shown
under third-year coach Greg
Robinson, which is why he has
such a tenuous hold on his job. Why Rutgers might win:
This is the type of game that RB
Ray Rice will get back on track,
and resume playing like a
Heisman contender. He’s been
bottled up the last two weeks,
but Syracuse’s 116th-ranked run
defense doesn’t have the size up
front or the speed on the
outside to deliver a copycat
performance. Rice will scoot
for 150 yards and a couple of
scores, opening things up for QB
Mike Teel, if heathy, to
air-mail long balls to speedy
wideouts Tiquan Underwood, Kenny
Britt, and Tim Brown. Why Syracuse might win:
Once the strength of the
schedule stiffened, the curtain
got pulled back on the Rutgers
defense. The Scarlet Knights
allowed more than 400 yards and
20 first downs in each of the
last two games, playing
especially porous on third down
and against the run. The
attitude that drove last year’s
group is clearly missing in
2007. The Orange will
capitalize with RB Curtis
Brinkley running between the
tackles and QB Andrew Robinson
playing catch with talented
receivers Taj Smith and Mike
Williams. Rutgers has grown
used to home cooking, but for
the first time this year will
venture outside New Jersey to
play a game. Who to watch: Although
the schedule is conducive to a
second-half run, Rutgers will be
stuck in neutral unless the
offensive line can create more
space for Rice to operate. Rice
has been kept under 100 yards
for three straight games,
largely because he’s taking
first contact at or behind the
line of scrimmage. It’s
incumbent upon Jeremy Zuttah,
Pedro Sosa, and the rest of the
Rutgers line to start dominating
up front and setting the tone
for the rest of the offense. What will happen: In
search of a feel-good game,
Rutgers will take out two weeks’
worth of frustration on a
hapless Syracuse team that’s
started to insert more
underclassmen into the lineup.
At least for one weekend, the
Knights will play like the 2006
team that captured the nation’s
attention. CFN Prediction:
Rutgers
42 … Syracuse 16...
Line: Rutgers -17.5 Must See Rating: (5
Hideki Matsui's "collection" - 1
The Heartbreak Kid)
... 2
Connecticut (5-0) at Virginia
(5-1)
3:30 EST ESPNU Why to watch: One of
these two upstarts is going to
become bowl eligible way earlier
than anyone could have imagined
before the season began. In
fact, neither Connecticut nor
Virginia was considered a lock
to even win six games this year,
a testament to how both schools
have been bucking the forecasts
so far in 2007. While the
Huskies have mostly fattened up
on a weak schedule, their last
two wins over Pittsburgh and
Akron were never in doubt. With
a brutal second half to come,
they’d really like to pocket win
No. 6 now, rather than sweating
it out in November. During
Virginia’s current five-game
winning streak, it’s won three
games by five points or else,
including last week’s 23-21
stress-fest over Middle
Tennessee. The cardiac Cavs are
atop the ACC Coastal at 3-0 and
finding ways to win toss-ups,
signs that Al Groh’s young team
is maturing on the fly. One of
these two schools is living a
lie that’ll be exposed by early
Saturday evening. Why Connecticut might win:
Virginia’s issues on offense
this season are not going to get
solved against a Husky defense
that’s No. 4 nationally in both
scoring and total defense. Led
by junior bookends Julius
Williams and Cody Brown, and LB
Danny Lansanah, Connecticut
creates plenty of pressure and
turnovers while allowing just 89
yards a game on the ground. If
the Cavaliers have any problems
running the ball without injured
workhorse Cedric Peerman,
they’ll labor to move the chains
with inconsistent QB Jameel
Sewell and the nation’s
102nd-ranked passing attack.
The recent emergence of Andre
Dixon to go along with Donald
Brown gives the Huskies two very
capable backs to rotate in and
out of the lineup. Why Virginia might win:
The Cavaliers defense has been
exceptional so far this season,
bending at times, but rarely
breaking. It’s allowing just
under 100 yards a game on the
ground since the opener, while
relying on talented ends Chris
Long and Jeffrey Fitzgerald to
generate constant havoc on
opposing quarterbacks. Virginia
can slow down the Connecticut
running game, putting the onus
on Tyler Lorenzen and an iffy
passing game to make plays on
third-and-long. Who to watch: Whoever
runs the ball better in this
game wins. Period. With
leading rusher Peerman out with
a knee injury, it’s up to
redshirt freshman Keith Payne
and converted receiver Andrew
Pearman to spark the Virginia
ground game this week. The
aptly-named Payne is a 6-3,
235-pound thumper with the
potential to be a terrific
between-the-tackles back in the
ACC. What will happen: With
Virginia and Connecticut in the
same building, do not expect a
thing of beauty, or much offense
this Saturday. While the
Cavaliers have played in a
number of tight games, the
Huskies have not. That
experience, along with
home-field advantage, will be
enough to eke out another
nail-biter in Charlottesville.
CFN Prediction:
Virginia
23 … Connecticut 19...
Line: Virginia -3.5 Must See Rating: (5
Hideki Matsui's "collection" - 1
The Heartbreak Kid)
... 3
