How are the picks so far? SU:
33-11 ... ATS: 21-18
Big East Game of
the Week
Big East Thursday, Oct. 18
South Florida (6-0) at Rutgers (4-2)
7:30 EST, ESPN Why to watch: The shell game that
has become the weekly rankings now has
South Florida No. 2 in the BCS
standings, so its every move will be
scrutinized, analyzed and criticized in
the second half of the season. One week
after getting pushed by Florida
Atlantic, the Bulls trampled their
critics and UCF, 64-12, to make more of
a statement than it got credit for.
Built primarily on defensive speed and
the running game, USF unleashed its
vertical attack on the Knights, getting
five touchdown passes from three
different quarterbacks in the rout. As
long as the Bulls keep winning, they are
the story of the 2007 season.
Rutgers knows a little something about
Cinderella stories, having authored a
pretty memorable one just last year and
thinking it’d be where USF is right now
when the season started. After beating
up Syracuse on Saturday to get back on
the winning track, there’s still the
problem of consecutive losses to
Maryland and Cincinnati to change up the
overall expectations. Basically,
Rutgers has beaten the bad teams, and
lost to the good. Beating USF offers a
chance to change that troubling trend
while jumping right back into the Big
East race. The ingredients are in place
for this to be a very chippy game that
the officials will need to manage
closely. Both teams like to chirp, the
Scarlet Knights are earning a reputation
as headhunters, and has 18 Floridians on
the roster that would love to stick it
to the Bulls. The world is watching USF
now. Can the newcomer handle the
pressure? Why South Florida might win: The
USF defense has been every bit as good
as the numbers indicate, ranking No. 11
nationally in both total and scoring
defense. It’s very fast, experienced,
and creating takeaways faster than all
but one Big East team. The linebackers
will keep RB Ray Rice in check, forcing
Mike Teel to win the game versus one of
the best pass defenses in the country.
The erratic junior has been good so far,
but now he has to hold up against the
pressure provided DE George Selvie and
DT Aaron Harris. When Rutgers lost to
Maryland and Cincinnati earlier in the
fall, it was physically moved off the
ball, so look for USF to establish a
ball control offense that features the
running of QB Matt Grothe, and backs
Benjamin Williams and Mike Ford. Why Rutgers might win: Don’t be
fooled by South Florida’s 64 points a
week ago. This is still an unsure
offense that relies too heavily on
Grothe as a runner and drops too many of
his passes. Playing in its coldest
venue of the season, the Bulls will have
problems moving the ball consistently on
a run defense that’ll be frothing at the
mouth from the moment it gets out of the
tunnel. While the Scarlet Knights need
to begin opening more holes for Rice,
they’ve been peerless in pass
protection, allowing just four sacks all
year with an offensive line that can
neutralize that scary USF pass rush. Who to watch: This game might
come down to whether or not Rutgers can
achieve offensive balance by getting
Teel & Co. off the ground. It’ll be up
to a very talented group of Knights
receivers, including Tiquan Underwood
and Kenny Britt, to make plays against
two of the premier corners in the Big
East, seniors Trae Williams and Mike
Jenkins. If Underwood and Britt get the
best of Williams and Jenkins, they’ll be
the first tandem to do so in
2007. What will happen: The 2006
Rutgers team could win this game, but
can the 2007 edition? The Scarlet
Knights are not the same team on defense
or in the trenches, at least so far, but
that’ll change in one big performance.
From the coaching staff on down, Rutgers
believes it hasn’t played anywhere close
to its capabilities. That’ll change on
Thursday night, as Rutgers will play
like the team many expected it’d be with
an opportunistic defense that’ll grab
the momentum early and never let go. CFN Prediction:
Rutgers 27 … South Florida 20 ...
Line: South Florida -2.5 Must See Rating: (5
Keeping Up with the Kardashians
- 1 Ellen's dog plea) ... 4.5
Big East Friday, Oct. 19
Louisville (4-3) at Connecticut (5-1)
8:00, ESPN Why to watch: In one of the
overlooked surprises of last weekend,
Louisville rescued its sinking season
with a 28-24 upset of
previously-unbeaten Cincinnati. The
Cardinals stayed afloat in the Big East
race, getting a typically heroic effort
from QB Brian Brohm and an atypical
performance from a defense that’s
underachieved all season. Was last
Saturday an aberration or an indication
that Louisville is about to begin
circling back to preseason
expectations? It’ll be worth tuning in
Friday night to find out. By the
narrowest of margins, Connecticut’s
perfect season slipped away in
Charlottesville last weekend, when
Virginia K Chris Gould booted the
game-winner late in the fourth quarter.
All is not lost, however, for one of two
league teams that have yet to lose a
conference game. With Louisville in
town for a nationally televised game,
the Huskies have a golden opportunity to
pick up a statement win and become bowl
eligible on the same night. Why Louisville might win:
Connecticut is not built to keep pace
with a balanced Cardinals offense that
strikes quickly and is averaging 560
yards a game. Even if Louisville can
get into the 30s, that might be out of
reach for a Husky attack that ranks 71st
nationally, despite playing a weak first
half schedule. Although Connecticut has
been very stout on defense this year, it
has yet to face an offense with nearly
as much firepower and versatility as the
one that’ll descend upon Rentschler
Stadium Friday night. Why Connecticut might win: Have
you noticed that the Louisville offense
has been human ever since the
competition has stiffened? The Huskies
have, and they’ve got a no-name defense
that’s determined to keep the Cards from
turning this game into a track meet.
Led by the underrated linebacker duo of
Danny Lansanah and Lawrence Wilson,
Connecticut has yet to allow more than
17 points in a game, and is No. 3 in the
country in turnover margin. The Huskies
can keep this game close, and win it in
the second half by pounding Andre Dixon
and Donald Brown at a Louisville defense
that still ranks among the worst in the
Big East in most statistical categories.
Who to watch: Brohm dominates the
headlines, but neither the quarterback
nor the Louisville offense is the same
without WR Harry Douglas, who returned
last week from injury after missing the
previous two games. Douglas promptly
caught seven passes for 118 yards
against a real good Cincinnati
secondary, proving that he’s an
irreplaceable cog in the Cardinal
machine. He’ll get another tough test
this week versus the No.10 Connecticut
pass defense. What will happen: Did Louisville
turn the corner with last week’s upset
of Cincinnati. Not quite, but the win
will provide a spark for this week’s
trek to Hartford. Connecticut while
keep Louisville close for four quarters
before fading late on a Brohm to Gary
Barnidge touchdown pass. CFN Prediction:
Louisville
33 … Connecticut 28 ... Line:
Louisville -3.5 Must See Rating: (5
Keeping Up with the Kardashians
- 1 Ellen's dog plea) ... 3
Big East Saturday, Oct. 20
Cincinnati (6-1) at Pittsburgh (2-4)
12:00 EST, ESPN Gameplan Why to watch: After a 6-0 start,
you can finally strike Cincinnati from
the ranks of the unbeaten. The
Bearcats, which have lived by the
takeaway all season, fell on their own
sword against Louisville Saturday night,
giving the ball away four times in a
28-24 loss. How well Cincy recovers
this week from that emotional loss will
dictate whether or not it’s going to be
a permanent factor in the Big East
race. Pittsburgh has lost four games
in-a-row, looking as if it’s building
for next year with prized freshmen, QB
Pat Bostick and RB LeSean McCoy, manning
the backfield. McCoy, in particular,
has the moves and maturity of a future
star and the face of the Panthers
program for the next three seasons.
Pitt has owned the River City Rivalry,
winning all six meetings, but this is a
year that Cincinnati can earn a little
redemption for some of the past problems
in this series. Why Cincinnati might win: The
Pittsburgh offense has gotten a jolt
from its two freshmen, but this is still
one of the Big East’s most futile
offenses, averaging just 332 yards and
24 points a game. And while the future
is bright for Bostick, the opportunistic
Bearcats defense will make him look like
a rookie on this day. Cincinnati is No.
4 nationally in turnover margin and No.
23 in sacks, a combination that’ll force
the freshman into mistakes in just his
fourth career start. Look for the
Bearcats to have success with Greg Moore
and Butler Benton on the ground against
a Pitt defense that’s been gutted for 10
rushing touchdowns in just the last
three games. Why Pittsburgh might win: If
Bostick can avoid making mistakes, and
CB Mike Mickens, he should be able to
move the ball on a Cincinnati secondary
that’s given up more than 300 yards
through the air in each of the last
three games. Bostick has a fine
receiver in Oderick Turner, who’s caught
a touchdown in three straight games, and
a pair of quality tight ends, Nate Byham
and Darrell Strong. If the Panthers can
loosen up the Bearcats through the air,
it’ll open things up for McCoy to
continue his drive toward becoming a
Freshman All-American. Who to watch: As the weather
begins to change in Pennsylvania,
Cincinnati QB Ben Mauk needs to be a
little more careful with his passes. A
gunslinger that’ll force passes at
times, he’s been a find for an offense
that held open auditions at quarterback
before the season began. While Mauk has
tossed 15 touchdown passes in Brian
Kelly new spread attack, he’s going to
get challenged on Saturday by
Pittsburgh’s No. 6 pass defense. What will happen: In a crossroads
game for Cincinnati, it’ll choose the
path that leads to win No. 7. The
Bearcats will contain McCoy and get back
to turning takeaways into short-field
opportunities for the balanced offense.
CFN Prediction:
Cincinnati
31 … Pitt 10 ... Line:
Cincinnati -10 Must See Rating: (5
Keeping Up with the Kardashians
- 1 Ellen's dog plea) ... 2.5
Mississippi State (4-3) at West Virginia
(5-1)
3:30 EST, ESPN Gameplan Why to watch: Despite a loss to
South Florida earlier in the season, No.
9 West Virginia still has lofty goals
for 2007 that include a Big East
championship and a BCS bowl game. If
everything breaks right, there might be
even more in the works. While banged-up
offensive stars Steve Slaton and Patrick
White got much-needed breaks from a week
off, it’s still uncertain whether the
latter will be healthy enough in time
for kickoff. If White’s a scratch, West
Virginia will turn to Jarrett Brown, a
proven backup for the program who’s not
quite as fast as White, but it seen as
the future of the program with his
multitude of skills. Although
Mississippi State is making progress
under Sylvester Croom, it would get far
more widespread coverage with an upset
over a top ten oppoenent. Since getting
routed by LSU in the opener, the
Bulldogs have been competitive every
weekend, needing just two more wins to
become bowl eligible for the first time
since 2000. Why Mississippi State might win:
The Bulldogs have a feisty defense led
by a couple of playmakers and all-star
candidates, DE Titus Brown and DB Derek
Pegues. They’ve held four opponents
under 20 points this fall, and allow
just 25 points a game, numbers that’ll
keep them in this game, especially if
White is less than 100%. Mississippi
State RB Anthony Dixon is a 240-pound
load that’s capable of extending drives,
softening the interior of the opposing
defense, and keeping the high-powered
Mountaineers offense on the sidelines.
Why West Virginia might win:
Unless South Florida secretly switches
jerseys with Mississippi State on
Saturday, pencil in the Mountaineers
offense for at least 30 points,
regardless of who’s taking snaps. The
Bulldogs simply can’t reach that number
with a one-dimensional offense that’s
starting its third quarterback of the
season, true freshman Wesley Carroll,
and is 115th nationally
passing the ball. Jeff Casteel is
quietly doing a fantastic job with a
West Virginia defense that hasn’t
allowed more than 14 points in the first
half of any game this season. Who to watch: West Virginia is
allowing a mere 261 yards a game,
largely due to the linebacker trio of
Reed Williams, Mortty Ivy, and Marc
Magro, the team’s three leading
tacklers. The entire front seven of the
Mountaineers has been instrumental in
holding opponents to less than 100 yards
a game on the ground, a major hurdle for
Dixon and the Mississippi State
offensive line. What will happen: Although the
Mississippi State defense is capable of
keeping this game from getting out of
control, the offense doesn’t have enough
weapons to actually win it. West
Virginia will build an early lead, and
play keep-away until the clock runs
out. CFN Prediction: West Virginia 38
… Mississippi
State 17
... Line: West Virginia -24 Must See Rating: (5
Keeping Up with the Kardashians
- 1 Ellen's dog plea) ... 3
Buffalo (3-4) at Syracuse (1-6)
4:00 EST, ESPNU Why to watch: Do you want more
proof that Syracuse has fallen off the
face of the Earth, in terms of college
football? This week’s home game with
Buffalo is basically considered a
toss-up by the oddsmakers. Yes, those
Buffalo Bulls. With five games left in
the season, the Orange has been
relegated to playing for pride and jobs,
from the coaching staff down to the
two-deep. Since shocking Louisville on
Sept. 22, Syracuse has scored 14 points
in each of its last three games, losses
to Miami University, West Virginia, and
Rutgers. Don’t look now, but Turner
Gill has started to turn around the
Buffalo program, a pipe dream just a
couple of years ago. The Bulls have won
two straight games, and are an
impressive 3-1 in the MAC East. A win
over Syracuse would be Buffalo’s bowl
game, resonating throughout Upstate New
York and getting the Bulls even this
late for the first time since 1996. If
Bill Callahan is truly a dead man
walking in Lincoln, Gill could be
auditioning this season for the opening.
Why Buffalo might win: The Bulls
have emerged as a balanced offense,
getting steady production from QB Drew
Willy and some monster efforts from RB
James Starks. The sophomore has
exploded for 414 yards and five
touchdowns on the ground in recent wins
over Ohio and Toledo, presenting a
problem for a Syracuse defense that’s
115th nationally against the
run. When the Orange faced
Miami (OH) of the MAC East three weeks
ago, it allowed 286 yards on the ground,
a harbinger of things to come this week. Why Syracuse might win: At long
last, a defense that the Orange matches
up well against. Save for the
Louisville game, the Syracuse offense
has been AWOL this season, but that’ll
change against an undersized Bulls
defense that’s allowed more than 30
points five times this year, and lacks
the pass rush to expose the weak spots
in the Orange front wall. With rare
time to throw, Andrew Robinson will have
a nice day playing catch with receivers
Taj Smith and Mike Williams, who’ll
prove to be too big and too fast for the
Buffalo secondary. Who to watch: If the Orange
allows Starks to take over the game,
like he’s done the last two weeks, the
Bulls are capable of delivering this
upset. It’ll be up to DT Arthur Jones
to get a push up front and MLB Jake
Flaherty to keep Starks from getting to
the outside, or else Syracuse could
reach a new low under Greg Robinson by
Saturday night. What will happen: Buffalo has
more than enough motivation to pull off
this upset, but not quite enough size
and speed to beat a Syracuse team
that’ll welcome an opponent that won’t
treat it like a piñata. The Orange will
get a couple of touchdown passes from
Robinson and Curtis Brinkley’s first
100-yard game of the year to squeeze out
win No. 2. CFN Prediction:
Syracuse
31 … Buffalo 24
... Line: Syracuse -4.5 Must See Rating: (5
Keeping Up with the Kardashians
- 1 Ellen's dog plea) ... 2
