How are the picks so far? SU:
40-15 ... ATS: 26-25
Big East Game of
the Week
Connecticut (8-1) at Cincinnati (7-2)
3:30 EST, ESPNU Why to watch: West Virginia plays
host to Louisville Thursday night, yet
Connecticut at Cincinnati is the game of
the week in the Big East? In a testament
to the oddity of the 2007 season, the
Huskies remain the lead dog in the
league race, while the Bearcats can
realistically cop the title by winning
their final three games. Connecticut
stayed unbeaten in conference play,
blowing out Rutgers behind the
time-tested formula of good defense and
a solid running game. Off to its best
start in program history, UConn can
reduce its BCS bowl game magic number to
two with a win on Saturday. Cincinnati
rebounded beautifully from a two-game
losing streak by winning a road game at
South Florida. The Bearcats got
contributions from every corner of the
depth chart, appearing to have
stabilized after dropping back-to-back
games to Louisville and Pittsburgh. The
defense got back to creating takeaways
in Tampa, a must if Cincy is going to
close out the regular season with a
four-game winning streak. Why Connecticut might win: You
may not recognize many names, but the
Husky defense continues to make key
stops, create turnovers, and keep
opponents out of the end zone. The 19
points scored by Rutgers last weekend
was the most allowed by Connecticut, the
nation’s No. 3 scoring defense. The
Cincinnati offense has been quiet since
league play began, and last week’s
perceived outburst of 38 points had more
to do with defense and special teams
than offensive execution. The Huskies
will again play small ball, limiting big
plays on defense, controlling the clock,
and leaning on sophomore backs Andre
Dixon and Donald Brown. Why Cincinnati might win: The
only thing Connecticut does well on
offense is run the ball, but that’s
going to be a problem against a Bearcat
front that excels in run defense,
allowing more than 100 yards on the
ground just once since the opener.
Dixon and Brown are quality backs, but
that shouldn’t confuse anyone into
believing the Huskies are stout on the
interior. The Connecticut line is weak
at the point of attack, struggles in
pass protection, and is going to get
schooled by Terrill Byrd, Anthony Hoke,
and the rest of the Cincinnati front
wall. With less production than normal
from the running game, the 88th-ranked
passing attack will be asked to move the
chains on an athletic, Mike Mickens-led
secondary that’s picked off 21 balls in
2007. Who to watch: The most intriguing
battle of the afternoon will be the one
between Cincinnati QB Ben Mauk and a
Connecticut back seven that has three
times as many picks as touchdown passes
allowed. Mauk has been hot the last
five games, but can also be reckless at
times, squeezing in passes where he
shouldn’t. The Huskies will be matched
up with a Bearcat receiving corps that
can stretch defenses and make big plays,
yet has been inconsistent throughout the
fall. Mauk’s performance on Saturday
will dictate whether or not Cincinnati
is still in the Big East race Sunday
morning. What will happen: In a game
that’s going to be won in the trenches,
Cincinnati rates an edge on both sides
of the ball. Connecticut’s ride to a
January bowl game will hit a detour when
its offense consistently fails to
convert on third down or produce points
in the red zone. CFN Prediction:
Cincinnati
21 … Connecticut 13
... Line:
Cincinnati -5.5 Must See Rating: (5 Seinfeld:
Season 9 - 1 Bee Movie) ...
3.5
Big East Thursday, November 8th
Louisville (5-4) at West Virginia (7-1)
7:30 EST Why to watch: When these two
schools met a year ago, neither had lost
and both were chasing a national
championship. Times have changed.
However, while Louisville and West
Virginia have five combined losses,
there’ll still be plenty at stake when
the league’s marquee programs meet on
Thursday night. The Mountaineers
control their own destiny in the Big
East, needing four more wins to do no
worse than a spot in the Orange Bowl.
And depending on what happens to the
teams in front of it, No. 7 West
Virginia is still in the mix for a spot
in the BCS title game. QB Pat White and
RB Steve Slaton are healthy, and three
of the next four games are in
Morgantown, so big things are expected
of West Virginia over the next month. A
rough stretch in the middle of the year
has altered Louisville’s goals and
expectations. The Cardinals need this
game just for bowl eligibility, and have
a chance in front of a national audience
to regain some of the respect that was
lost in earlier games with Syracuse,
Utah, and Connecticut. With White,
Slaton, and Louisville QB Brian Brohm in
the same building, the game’s offensive
hero has a chance to gather support in a
wide-open Heisman race. Why Louisville might win: With
Brohm in the huddle, the Cardinals
always have a chance. One of the most
polished and poised senior quarterbacks
in the nation, he’s played well against
West Virginia the last two years, and
will not become unhinged in a tough road
spot. Has anyone noticed that Mike
Cassity’s defense has stiffened over the
last few weeks? A laughingstock in the
early going, Louisville has settled
down, turning all of its speed and raw
talent into three respectable games
in-a-row. The Mountaineers will get
their yards, but won’t erupt, as has
been their calling card under Rich
Rodriguez. Why West Virginia might win:
Louisville’s recent defensive success
has come against Cincinnati,
Connecticut, and Pittsburgh, none of
whom will remind anyone of the
Mountaineers’ Big East-best offense.
The Cardinals have had a particularly
tough time stopping the pass, allowing
18 touchdowns while picking off just
six, so it’ll be one of those nights
that White locks in on WR Darius Reynaud
and shows off his accurate left arm.
After the first two games with Murray
State and Middle Tennessee State,
Louisville has been just slightly above
average on offense, which isn’t going to
cut it versus the No. 4 West Virginia
defense, one of the most overlooked
units in the country. Who to watch: The West Virginia
defense has done a complete 180 from
last year, but it hasn’t faced a passing
game even remotely as good Louisville’s,
which features Brohm, WRs Harry Douglas
and Mario Urrutia, and TE Gary Barnidge.
The job of keeping the Cardinal
receivers from taking over the game
belongs to corners Larry Williams and
Antonio Lewis, who’ll get lots of
support from safeties Eric Wicks, Ryan
Mundy, and Quinton Andrews. Although
the West Virginia secondary has yielded
just two touchdown passes in the last
six games, it’ll need help from a pass
rush that got shut out in last week’s
game at Rutgers. What will happen: On this night,
West Virginia will make the Louisville
defense look like it’s September again.
Brohm will put up big numbers and
prevent things from getting totally out
of control, but it won’t be nearly
enough to keep things interesting in the
fourth quarter. CFN Prediction:
West Virginia 42 ….Louisville 23
... Line:
West Virginia -16 Must See Rating: (5 Seinfeld:
Season 9 - 1 Bee Movie) ...
3.5
Big East Friday, November 9th
Rutgers (5-4) at Army (3-6)
8:00 EST, ESPN2 Why to watch: Back-to-back losses
to West Virginia and Connecticut have
Rutgers officially out of the Big East
hunt, and scrambling for enough wins to
qualify for a third straight bowl
invitation. One win means bowl
eligibility, but it’ll likely take two
to secure a second-tier berth in the
Meineke Car Care, Papa John's, or
International Bowl. The Scarlet Knights
got outclassed by Connecticut last
weekend, sputtering in the red zone and
making too many mistakes on special
teams. For Army, this is a nationally
televised opportunity to measure itself
against a Big East opponent, and another
tune-up before the annual tilt with Navy
on Dec. 1. Since beating Tulane, the
Black Knights have lost three straight
games, spring leaks on defense against
teams that can run the ball between the
tackles. Why Rutgers might win: Army can’t
stop the run, giving up 212 yards a game
and well over 1,000 yards in the last
four games alone. The Scarlet Knights
will control the line of scrimmage with
tackles Pedro Sosa and Jeremy Zuttah,
springing RB Ray Rice for a huge night,
while giving QB Mike Teel the time
needed to find big-play receivers Kenny
Britt and Tiquan Underwood. In a
shootout, the Black Knights might have a
chance, but they lack the offensive
artillery to do much damage to the
Rutgers defense. Why Army might win: Rutgers just
got done falling out of the Big East
race with high-profile losses to West
Virginia and Connecticut. How in the
world is this team that had BCS
aspirations in August going to get
motivated for a game with Army in
November? The Scarlet Knights continue
to struggle with turnovers, a trend
that’ll keep the Black Knights
competitive even though they’re at
talent and depth disadvantage. At
Michie Stadium, Army has been a
different team in 2007, winning all
three of its games. Who to watch: It’ll be a banner
night for Rutgers ends Jamaal Westerman
and George Johnson, who’ll get little
resistance from an Army offensive line
that’s allowed 27 sacks this season.
The Black Knights figure to be down
early, which will prompt QB Carson
Williams to throw early, exposing him to
constant pressure off the edge from the
Scarlet Knights’ two fastest linemen. What will happen: Rutgers’ heads
better be in this game because Army will
be playing with something to prove. The
Scarlet Knights will feed Rice often,
who’ll reciprocate with 150 yards and
three scores in a comfortable victory. CFN Prediction:
Rutgers
35 … Army 14
... Line: Rutgers -18 Must See Rating: (5 Seinfeld:
Season 9 - 1 Bee Movie) ...
1.5
Big East Saturday, November 10th
South Florida (6-3) at Syracuse (2-7)
12:00 EST, ESPN Why to watch: South Florida is
playing with a boulder attached to its
ankle, sinking from the No. 2 team in
the country to the Big East basement in
under a month. The Bulls have lost
three consecutive games by a combined 13
points, losing its swagger and, too
often, its grip on the ball. In
Saturday’s loss to Cincinnati, USF
turned the ball over eight times, failed
to register a sack for the second time
in three games, and allowed a pair of
non-offensive touchdowns. With three
regular season games remaining, there’s
still time for South Florida to refocus,
qualify for a third straight bowl game,
and make a run at a 10-win season.
Syracuse, on the other hand, is playing
out the string once again after
officially being eliminated from bowl
contention in Pittsburgh a week ago.
Without much protection, QB Cameron
Dantley played very well after Andrew
Robinson was injured, providing a spark
and going 15-of-27 for 189 yards and two
scores in the second half. If
Robinson’s aching back doesn’t hold up,
Dantley will be back behind center. Why South Florida might win:
Syracuse’s pass protection has been just
obscene, allowing more sacks than all
but two teams in the country. With no
running threat to keep the defense
honest, the Orange will again get abused
by DE George Selvie and a quick South
Florida defense that leads the nation in
tackles for loss. With LB Ben Moffitt
patrolling the middle of the middle, and
corners Trae Williams and Mike Jenkins
neutralizing receivers Mike Williams and
Taj Smith, Syracuse will have a tough
time surpassing its average of just
under 17 points a game. Why Syracuse might win: Two trips
to the Northeast in October produced two
losses for South Florida, which sets
sail for chilly Upstate New York this
weekend. Yeah, the game is indoors, but
the Bulls have been a different team
when it has to travel past the
Mason-Dixon Line. USF won’t win another
game this year if it continues to be
careless with the football. During the
current three-game skid, the Bulls have
been picked off seven times and have
lost a pair of fumbles.
Who to watch: In a rerun of last
year, South Florida QB Matt Grothe is
back to doing everything for the
offense, which was not the blueprint
when summer camp broke in August. The
sophomore set a school-record for
single-game passing yards last week, but
also got picked off four times, an
indication he’s being forced to do too
much. If the Bulls are to snap out of
their funk, Grothe needs more support
from the running game and fewer dropped
balls from his receivers. What will happen: South Florida
will ride the back of its defense to a
skid-snapping victory, getting a half
dozen sacks and a couple of key
interceptions. CFN Prediction; South Florida 30
… Syracuse
16 ...
Line: South Florida -16 Must See Rating: (5 Seinfeld:
Season 9 - 1 Bee Movie) ...
1.5
