Penn
State
(3-0) at Michigan
(1-2)
3:30 PM ABC Why to Watch: Playing
Notre Dame right now makes everyone feel
better. Penn State got its licks in
against the Irish, winning 31-10, but
suffers the humiliation of being the one
team to give of a touchdown (albeit a
defensive one). Michigan temporarily got
on track with its 38-0 domination of the
Irish last weekend, and now the season
can really take off with a win against a
strong Nittany Lion team. With Northwestern, Eastern
Michigan, Illinois and Minnesota in the
next five weeks (surrounding a tough
battle with Purdue), the chance is
there, with a win this week, to go on a
huge run that'll make everyone
temporarily forget the ugly start. For
Penn State, it's demon exorcising time.
It got its comeuppance on Notre Dame for
last year's 41-17 blowout loss, and now
it'll try to stop the bleeding after
losing nine straight to the Maize and
Blue, with the last win coming in 1996.
The Big Ten title appears to be there
for the taking this season, and the
winner will take a huge step forward. Why Penn State Might Win: Don't
fall for the Notre Dame mirage. There's
still a boatload of trouble on the
Michigan defense, and while Chad Henne
might be ready to go on an injured knee,
it could still be freshman Ryan Mallett
under center against the brick wall of a
Nittany Lion defense. Penn State is
number one in America against the run,
allowing just 17.67 yards per game, and
also leads the nation with 17 sacks. The
Wolverine passing game hasn't exactly
clicked yet, and it won't if it has to
take over the game. Why Michigan Might Win:
Don't fall for the Notre Dame mirage. Oh
sure, the stats might be jaw-dropping,
but you have to take everything done
against Notre Dame right now with a
grain of salt. Beating up on Florida
International and Buffalo isn't exactly
reason to start booking tickets for New
Orleans in early January. There's still
a major question mark about a Nittany
Lion running game that hasn't been
tested yet. QB Anthony Morelli will be
under more pressure than he had to face
in the first three games combined, and
finally, the defense will play an
offense with living, breathing talent. Who to Watch: Michigan RB Mike
Hart, a Heisman finalist, has been
booted out of this year's race after the
1-2 start, but so far, he's been even
more Heisman-worthy than last year. All
he has done is crank out games of 188,
127, and 187 yards with five touchdowns,
and he stepped up with a guarantee of a
win over Notre Dame that showed an
attitude the team has been desperately
missing. On the other side, the only
thing missing from the Penn State
offense is a sure-thing running back,
and now there's a battle for the
starting spot. It was Austin Scott's gig
to start the year, but two early fumbles
against Buffalo opened the door for
Rodney Kinlaw, who stepped in and ran 23
times for 129 yards and a touchdown.
Scott is still listed as the starter,
but that could quickly change. What Will Happen: Which team is
the real deal? Penn State. Michigan's
early problems were mainly due to
playing spread offenses, but the defense
will have just as hard a time against
the Nittany Lion receiving corps. If
Morelli gets time, he'll have a huge
game. CFN Prediction:
Penn State
31 ... Michigan 17
... Line: Penn State -2.5 Must See Rating: (5 Curb Your
Enthusiasm - 1 Kid Nation)
... 4
Big 10 Saturday, Sept. 22
Illinois
(2-1) at Indiana (3-0)
12:00 PM Why to Watch: Illinois
and Indiana are much better than they've
been in past seasons, and while they
might not be playing like the bottom
feeders they usually are, neither can
afford to give away a winnable game.
Indiana has at least three games left
that it might be favored in (Minnesota,
Ball State, at Northwestern), meaning
that a win this week could set things up
for the program's first bowl bid since
1993. It would also be the first 4-0
start since 1990. The offense has been
tremendous, and the defense stunningly
strong against Western Michigan and
Akron. Illinois had a lousy first half
against Missouri, and has gone on a roll
ever since, with a great second half in
the loss, followed up by wins over
Western Illinois and Syracuse. A win
would give the Illini its first
three-game winning streak since 2001,
and might be a must with Penn State and
Wisconsin to follow. Why Illinois Might Win: The
defensive front seven has been fantastic
so far. Missouri had a rough time
running the ball on the Illini front
wall, and Western Illinois and Syracuse
went nowhere. Led by tackling-machine LB
J Leman, getting into the backfield
hasn't been a problem so far with 21
tackles for loss and consistent pressure
on the quarterback. Indiana has been
moving the ball most effectively on the
ground, leading the Big Ten averaging
259 yards per game. That might come to a
crashing halt this week. Why Indiana Might Win:
Turnovers. Indiana forces them; Illinois
doesn't. The Hoosiers are seventh in the
nation in turnover margin, helped by ten
takeaways from its smallish, aggressive
defense that makes a point of trying to
make the big play. Meanwhile, the
offense has been careful with the ball
so far. The Illinois defense has been
strong, but it doesn't come up with
game-changing turnovers. If the Hoosier
running game is stopped, the passing
game can pick up the slack. The same
can't necessarily be said for an
Illinois offense that's wildly
inconsistent when it has to put the ball
in the air. Who to Watch: This game could
have the nation's most entertaining
quarterback battle this week. Indiana
sophomore Kellen Lewis is a dual-threat
playmaker who's thrown three touchdown
passes in each of his first three games,
and tore off 199 rushing yards and two
scores last week against Akron. Illinois
sophomore Juice Williams is equally
exciting, but he hasn't gotten on track
this year. He throws shorter, safer
passes than Lewis, but he still
struggles from time to time connecting
with the open man. He ran for 90 yards
and a touchdown last week against
Syracuse, and has to be spied on at all
times by the IU linebackers. What Will Happen: Illinois is the
more talented team with the brighter
future, and it has the linebacking corps
to keep Lewis from running wild, but
Indiana is playing sound, sharp football
right now. The offensive balance, along
with better special teams play, will get
IU to 4-0. CFN Prediction:
Indiana
31 ... Illinois 27
... Line: Illinois -3 Must See Rating: (5 Curb Your
Enthusiasm - 1 Kid Nation)
... 3
Michigan State
(3-0) at Notre Dame
(0-3)
3:30 PM NBC Why to Watch: Next
up to have a turn at poor Notre Dame is
Michigan State, who's looking to keep
the hot start under head coach Mark
Dantonio going after surviving a strange
17-13 battle against Pitt. The Spartans
have done this before, like last year,
only to see everything unravel at the
blink of an eye. Could this be 2006 all
over again? MSU started out the season
3-0, looked strong, was blowing out
Notre Dame, and then choked away a 40-37
loss to the Irish that set the wheels in
motion for a bizarre rest of the year,
losing seven of the final eight games,
and needing an all-timer of a comeback
against Northwestern to pull off the one
win. Losing to Notre Dame this year
might be even more painful, and with a
trip to Wisconsin ahead, the last thing
the team needs is to start worrying
about yet another collapse. The Irish
woes have been well documented with no
offensive touchdowns and horrific
offensive play that's on setting an
all-time mark for futility. With road
games against Purdue and UCLA ahead,
followed up by dates with Boston College
and USC, this might be the team's last
honest shot at a win until early
November. Why Michigan State Might Win: The
Irish lines are next-level awful. Why
all the problems trying to move the
ball? The skill players aren't getting
any time with the quarterbacks being
sacked 23 times so far, the most in the
nation. MSU is tied for the the nation's
lead in sacks with 17, and is third in
tackles for loss with 31. In other
words, Jimmy Clausen and the boys aren't
going to have any time to operate this
week, either. On the other side of the
ball, the Spartans should be able to run
at will on an Irish defensive front that
hasn't been remotely close to making a
big stop. Why Notre Dame Might Win:
You don't think Michigan State believes
it's won this game already? The Spartans
can talk all they want about wanting
revenge for last year, but they've seen
what's happened so far. They can't look
at the film and not be kicking their
feet up a little bit. Pitt was without
its starting quarterback last week,
struggled to move the ball, turned it
over three times, got 85 passing yards,
and it still had the ball with one last
shot to win the game. The MSU defense is
hardly a rock, and if Clausen can get
any time whatsoever, he should be able
to produce. Who to Watch: The formula should
be simple for Michigan State. Don't turn
the ball over, keep running, run it some
more, and if the running game gets
stuffed, run it again. Eventually,
the home runs will be there for Javon
Ringer, who has gotten off to a hot
start running for 80, 83 and 92 yards,
and for pounder Jehuu Caulcrick, who has
rushed for 93, 53 and 71 yards with six
touchdowns. For the Irish, it's time to
do something drastic, and that might
mean winging it around a bit. Clausen
hasn't had time to open it up, and his
short passes haven't gone anywhere.
Watch for more deep balls this week. What Will Happen: Notre Dame will
get an offensive touchdown, and will
even get a second. Michigan State will
get more. The Spartan ground game will
eat up time, while the aggressive
defensive front will put Clausen on his
back for at least four sacks. CFN Prediction:
Michigan
State 28 ... Notre Dame 14
... Line: Michigan State -13.5 Must See Rating: (5 Curb Your
Enthusiasm - 1 Kid Nation)
... 3
