Michigan State (4-0) at
Wisconsin (4-0)
3:30 PM
ABC
Why to Watch: It's
a month into the season, and we don't
really know what this Wisconsin team is
all about. The program is on a
nation-leading 13-game winning streak,
but it's been freightingly shaky at
times, with no defense in the first half
against Citadel, little offense against
UNLV and Iowa, and plenty of question
marks on both sides of the ball for a
supposed national title contender. It's
a month into the season, and we don't
really know what this Michigan State
team is all about. The 4-0 start is all
the Spartans fans could possibly ask
for, but the supposedly tough games
against Pitt and Notre Dame weren't
proper indicators, considering how
anemic the two offenses are at the
moment. A win in Madison would
officially kick things up , a notch in
the young regime of Mark Dantonio, and
with Northwestern and Indiana ahead
(before playing Ohio State), a 7-0
start, the program's first since 1966,
is very possible. The Badgers go on the
road to face Illinois and Penn State
over the next two games. Why Michigan State Might Win: If
you like Wisconsin, then you also have
to like Michigan State, because the two
are virtually the same team. They both
run well behind mammoth offensive lines,
they both have average passing games,
and they both play tough defense. The
one major difference is in the pass
rush; Michigan State has one, and
Wisconsin doesn't. The Badgers have
problems against quick, athletic lines,
and it's going to be in for a whale of a
nightmare against a Spartan defensive
front that leads the nation in sacks and
is fifth in tackles for loss. If UW is
in several third and long situations, it
might as well punt. Why Wisconsin Might Win: As good
as the MSU running game has been, the
offense isn't exactly a well-oiled
machine. It's struggled so far to close
on good drives, and while the passing
game has been efficient, it hasn't been
explosive. The UW secondary has gotten
away with several near-misses and hasn't
done a great job in coverage so far, but
it's been effective and is tackling
better. As long as the defensive front
doesn't let the Spartan ground attack
control the tempo from the start, and as
long as QB Brian Hoyer has to try to
make big plays, the Badger defense
should be able to get to him. Who to Watch: Michigan State
senior DE Jonal Saint-Dic has been a one
man wrecking crew, cranking out six
sacks and forcing five fumbles in the
first four games, and will require
double and triple teaming if the
mediocre Badger pass protection
struggles early. Badger QB Tyler Donovan
is usually the most effective when he's
getting outside the pocket and making
plays on the move, but he has a fumbling
issue and is almost certain to try and
stay away from Saint-Dic's side of the
field. What Will Happen: Michigan State
will out-Wisconsin, Wisconsin. The
Spartans are a horrible matchup for the
Badgers, with the active defensive front
certain to wreak havoc in the backfield,
and the big offensive line sure to have
a few moments of domination. It's not
going to be a pretty game, but if you
like pounding running games, this will
be for you. CFN Prediction:
Michigan
State 17 ... Wisconsin 16
... Line: Wisconsin -7 Must See Rating: (5 Ken Burns'
The War - 1 The Big Bang Theory)
... 4
Big 10 Saturday, Sept. 29
Penn State
(3-1)
at Illinois
(3-1)12:00
PM Big Ten Network
Why to Watch: All
of a sudden, it seems like Penn State
isn't quite as good as thought, while
Illinois appears to be on the verge of
becoming a real, live Big Ten player.
No, beating Indiana on the road doesn't
automatically mean its time to book
tickets for Pasadena, but the Hoosier
offense is dangerous, and was relatively
hot, and the Illini defense kept it in
check. This is a fast, athletic,
dangerous team that's quickly growing
up, but there's a big jump from beaing
IU and getting past a wounded Penn
State. There was a groundswell of
support for the Nittany Lions being the
Big Ten's best team, then the offense
couldn't get going, and the run defense
couldn't stop Mike Hart, in a 14-9 loss
that proved the early blowouts against
bad teams meant absolutely nothing. This
is the toughest road game until the
season-ender at Michigan State, and a
win in Champaign is a must to keep Big
Ten title hopes alive. Illinois hosts
Wisconsin next week and can't afford any
home slips. Why Penn State Might Win: Yeah,
Mike Hart had an all-timer of a
performance last week, but that was
because he ran the ball 44 times. The
153 yards were obviously impressive, but
he only averaged 3.5 yards per carry and
didn't bust out any big runs. Illinois
lives with its running game, and it has
to get big yards from QB Juice Williams.
Penn State's linebacking corps, arguably
the best in America, isn't going to let
that happen. If Williams has to throw
efficiently, it's going to be a long
afternoon for the Illini offense. Also,
watch out for the punting game. Illinois
is struggling to get consistency out of
its kicks, while Penn State, thanks to
Derrick Williams, is among the best in
America averaging 16.6 yards per punt
return. Why Illinois Might Win: Anthony
Morelli. Penn State's mediocre running
game might be shut down cold by J Leman
and the rock-solid Illini run defense,
that's allowing just 87 yards per game,
which means it might be up to Morelli to
try to win the game. If the Michigan
loss was any indication, he can't do it.
He was under a little bit of pressure,
but not enough to be an excuse for
completing 15 of 31 passes for 169 yards
without a touchdown. Illinois has a far
better pass rush than Michigan and will
be able to generate good pressure and
force Morelli to rush. The Illinois
secondary has to take advantage. Who to Watch: Who's the best
running back in the Big Ten right now?
It's probably Hart, but in the
discussion along with Wisconsin's P.J.
Hill is Illinois junior Rashard
Mendenhall. Little used as a sophomore,
he had a breakout game in the 26-12 loss
to Penn State, rushing 14 times for 161
yards with a touchdown. The coaching
staff figured out this off-season that
Mendenhall needed to get the ball more,
and he has responded with three straight
100-yard games, rushing for 536 yards
and seven touchdowns on the season. He
ran for three scores against Syracuse,
tore off 214 yards against Indiana, and
has to be a 100-yard factor for the
Illini to have a shot. What Will Happen: Penn State's
offense will look awful at times, but
the defense will make up for the
problems. The Nittany Lion defensive
front is too active and too good at
getting into the backfield for the
Illinois offense to get on any sort of
run. Morelli won't be great, but he'll
come up with two big pass plays, and
Derrick Williams will rip off one big
punt return, to escape Champaign alive. CFN Prediction:
Penn State
20 ... Illinois 14
... Line: Penn State -3 Must See Rating: (5 Ken Burns'
The War - 1 The Big Bang Theory)
... 3
Indiana (3-1) at Iowa
(2-2)
12:05
PM Big Ten Network
Why to Watch: Last
year, Iowa was having a nice year, going
5-1 with the only loss coming to a
juggernaut of an Ohio State team. And
then came a trip to Indiana, and with a
31-28 loss, the Hawkeyes went into the
tank, losing six of their final seven
games. Now it's gut-check time for Iowa,
after coming oh-so-close to beating
Wisconsin, despite losing a ton of key
players, and with a trip to Penn State
ahead, this could be a rough stretch if
it can't get by the Hoosiers. Indiana
started out 3-0, but gave the ball away
four times and couldn't stop Rashard
Mendenhall and the Illinois running game
in a 27-14 loss. A win would mean a bowl
bid is all but assured, with several
winnable games again, and would get the
team back on track with a nice big-name
win. Why Indiana Might Win: Does
Iowa have anyone to catch the ball? Few
teams in America have taken as big a hit
to a specific area as Iowa has at
receiver and tight end, with a Spinal
Tap drummer variety of problems forcing
several young players to contribute
right away. The Hawkeye offense is
struggling with its consistency, and it
could have a big issue with an Indiana
secondary with a loaded corner tandem.
This isn't an efficient Iowa passing
game to begin with, hurt by the lousy
pass protection from the offensive line,
and the Hoosiers should be able to take
advantage. Why Iowa Might Win: The Iowa
defensive line should dominate. Mitch
King and Ken Iwebema are having all-star
seasons, with King coming up with a
national breakout game against Wisconsin
last week. IU's offense comes from the
mobility of QB Kellen Lewis, who leads
the team in rushing, but if the Hawkeye
defensive line doesn't let him out of
the pocket, the attack will quickly
break down. IU might be 17th in the
nation running the ball, but it won't
pound away. Who to Watch: Iowa might want to
take special note of where No. 82 is.
Indiana junior James Hardy has killed
the Hawkeyes over the last two years,
catching 12 passes for 203 yards and a
touchdown two years ago, and making
eight grabs for 104 yards and three
scores in last season's win. The
Hawkeyes can only dream of having a
healthy receiver of Hardy's caliber. Top
receiver Andy Brodell is out, and true
freshman Colin Sandeman is in. Top tight
end Tony Moeaki is out after an elbow
injury, and Brandon Myers is in. This
has to be a game of creativity for the
Hawkeyes, so expect RB Albert Young
being used in a variety of different
ways. What Will Happen: Indiana will
give Iowa all it can handle in what'll
be an ugly defensive battle. Iowa's
defensive front will do a better job
than Indiana's. CFN Prediction:
Iowa 23 ...
Indiana 17
... Line: Iowa -11 Must See Rating: (5 Ken Burns'
The War - 1 The Big Bang Theory)
... 2.5
