Ohio State
(5-0) at Purdue
(5-0)
8:00
PM ABC
Why to watch:
After two years off, Purdue welcomes
back both Ohio State and Michigan to the
schedule, getting the big boys in
back-to-back weeks that could either put
the program in a top five land of
superpowers, or relegate it to midlevel
Big Ten status yet again. Ohio State
benefited as much as anyone off of all
the upsets last weekend, and now is
within striking distance of being in the
national title team photo again. There's
still a lot of big games left to be
played for the Buckeyes, with at least
five battles against likely bowl bound
teams still to play after its date in
West Lafayette for it toughest test of
the year so far. The Boilermakers have
put up gaudy numbers, and can't be
blamed for Minnesota and Notre Dame not
being any good, but they're still not
getting much in the way of national
respect despite starting off 5-0. With
Wisconsin and a rising Illinois off the
schedule, things don't look too bad over
the second half of the year, but Purdue
first has to take advantage of the
biggest home game on the docket. Why Ohio State might win: Purdue,
meet a real defense. Real defense,
welcome to Purdue. There's no
questioning the Boilermaker offensive
talent, led by the best receiving corps
in the Joe Tiller era, but the best
defense the attack has faced yet has
been ... Notre Dame? Yes, and it's not
even close. Minnesota is 117th in the
nation in total D. Central Michigan
116th. Purdue 109th. Sure, Purdue had
something to do with the stats, but
these defenses really are bad.
Meanwhile, the Boilermaker D has been
hanging by a thread. No one's been able
to run the ball yet, mainly because of
bad defenses forcing comebacks with the
passing game. That won't be a problem
for Ohio State, who should be able to
pound the ball as much as it wants to.
This might not be the explosive OSU
running game of the past, but it's
extremely effective. On the flip side
... Why Purdue might win: Ohio State
hasn't faced anyone who can throw, and
it certainly hasn't seen a receiving
corps like this one. Minnesota and
Washington have good young quarterbacks,
and Northwestern's offense isn't without
its charm, but Purdue is at a higher
level of proficiency, with excellent
balance, enough weapons to play around
with several options every time Curtis
Painter drops back, and a line that's
keeping everyone upright. Unlike the
Washington game, when Jake Locker got
the Huskies up early, only to see the
offense stagnate in the second half,
Purdue will bring it all game long. If
OSU gets up early, it has to maintain
the intensity or Purdue will use the
lull to go on a run. Who to watch: Indiana's James
Hardy and Michigan's Mario Manningham
might have something to say in the
discussion, but it'll be hard to keep
Ohio State's Brian Robiskie and Purdue's
Dorien Bryant from being the first team
All-Big Ten receivers. Robiskie hasn't
just replaced Ted Ginn as a number one
target, it could be argued that he's
been better. While he doesn't have
Ginn's blazing speed, he's a big target
who's great at getting deep, averaging
21 yards per catch with six scores in
his last five games. He's the human
victory cigar. Even when he's scored
early so far, when he gets in the end
zone, it's over. On the other side,
Bryant has toiled in relative obscurity,
despite making a bazillion catches over
the last four years (actually, he's made
245), and now he's starting to score
more. He tore up Minnesota for 150 yards
and two scores on 12 catches two weeks
ago, and caught eight passes for 82
yards and a score against the Irish.
Painter will try to work the passing
game around, but when he'll need a big
catch, he'll look to No. 9. What will happen: Ohio State's
defense will flex its muscle a bit,
stopping Kory Sheets and the Purdue
ground game cold, while Chris Wells will
run for a 150 yards on the way to a
hard-fought sixth win. CFN Prediction:
Ohio State
30 ... Purdue 17
... Line:
Ohio State -7 Must See Rating: (5 Paris on
Letterman - 1 Singing Bee) ...
4
Big 10 Saturday, Oct. 6
Wisconsin (5-0) at Illinois
(4-1) 12:00
PM ESPN
Why to watch:
This is it, Illinois. You asked if you
could sit at the big boy table last week
against Penn State, and you proved you
could handle yourself well with a 27-20
win that was better than the final score
indicates. Now you want to join the
adult discussion with a win over
Wisconsin. This is an Illini team no one
wants to face right now. It's young,
extremely athletic, and just now
realizing how good it's starting to
become. Meanwhile, the Badgers just keep
on winning, continuing the nation's
longest winning streak at 14 with a
tough win over Michigan State. While
high up in the polls, few actually
believe this is one of the five best
teams in America, and just about
everyone is waiting for the curtain to
be pulled back and everything to be
exposed. Is this 2002 Ohio State in the
way it just wins, baby, or is it 2007
Texas and an overrated team getting
national love on name recognition? This
week might clear things up a bit. Why Wisconsin might win: Illinois
is about to understand what it feels
like to be run over by a steamroller.
The Illini run defense has been terrific
so far, but that's partly because it
hasn't faced anyone who could actually
pound the ball effectively. Oh sure,
Penn State's ground game is fine, and
Missouri can run a bit, but Wisconsin
will spend the entire game setting
things up so the Illini defensive front
wears down in the second half. Along the
way, Wisconsin should be able to connect
on at least two huge pass plays against
the suspect Illini secondary. Why Illinois might win: Wisconsin
is about to understand what it feels
like to be run around. The Badgers had a
nightmare of a time with Javon Ringer
and the Michigan State running game last
week, giving up big run after big run.
They also had major problems dealing
with UNLV's and Citadel's running
quarterbacks and the spread offenses.
Illinois will provide a mix of
nightmares, with QB Juice Williams to
give the UW linebackers fits with his
mobility, while RB Rashard Mendenhall
should be able to bust off yards in
chunks inside and out. If Illinois can
downfield block like Michigan State was
able to, 300 rushing yards is a
possibility. Who to watch: Illinois has gotten
away with the inefficient passing of
Juice Williams so far, but now he'll
have to come up with one of his most
accurate games yet. Wisconsin will
triple dog dare him to throw deep,
selling out time and again to make sure
he doesn't take off, and doing what it
can to keep Mendenhall under wraps. Penn
State's linebacking corps, a far better
group than Wisconsin's, was able to do
that, forcing Williams to complete just
11 of 24 passes with a touchdown and two
interceptions, but the Nittany Lion
offense screwed it all up by turning it
over four times. If Williams can hit on
two big deep passes early, the entire
tone of the game will change. What will happen: Wisconsin is
way overdue to get its doors blown off,
but so is Illinois. Wisconsin will roll
of 500 yards of total offense to
overcome a huge day from Williams.
Expect a wild shootout with the Badgers
hanging on in the fourth quarter ...
again. CFN Prediction:
Wisconsin 34 ... Illinois 31
... Line:
Illinois -2.5 Must See Rating: (5 Paris on
Letterman - 1 Singing Bee) ...
4
Minnesota (1-4) at Indiana
(4-1) 12:00
PM Big Ten Network
Why to watch:
It's rare for Indiana to actually be
able to come up with a revenge motif for
a game, but against the worst team in
the league, it can afford to. At 5-4
last year, and needing just one more win
to get bowl eligible, the Hoosiers got
ripped apart 63-26 by the Gophers to
screw everything up. Now, IU is coming
off an excellent win at Iowa, has a few
winnable games down the road, and can
all but assure itself of a post-season
game by keeping the misery going for
Minnesota. While the 30-7 final score
might not indicate it, the Gophers
actually played one of their best games
of the season in the loss to Ohio State.
With Northwestern next week and North
Dakota State to follow, this is as easy
a stretch as they could possibly hope
for. Why Minnesota might win:
Indiana's defense stems from the
pressure up front. The D leads the
nation in sacks after peppering Iowa QB
Jake Christensen eight times last week,
but it likely won't have anywhere near
the same success against a Minnesota O
line that's been fantastic in pass
protection. The passing game might not
be clicking, but that's not for a lack
of time. Indiana has tremendous corners,
but they'll give up yards in chunks.
Speaking of which ... Why Indiana might win: Throw the
ball deep on the Minnesota secondary
five times, and you'll likely connect on
three of them. Minnesota's secondary is
aggressive and can hit, but it can't
cover worth a lick. Even when it has
everyone in the right spot, the better
receivers always make the play. Allowing
368 yards per game, the worst in the
nation, the Gophers should have a
nightmare of a time with James Hardy,
who caught five passes for 115 yards and
a touchdown in last year's game. Who to watch: Different Hoosiers
take turns coming up with the big sack
days. Last week, sophomore Jammie Kirlew,
a big linebacker who can function as an
end of a lightning quick, undersized
tackle, tore up Iowa for 3.5 sacks and
nine tackles. Sophomore Greg Middleton
is a pure pass rusher who has seven
sacks on the season as the team's most
consistent threat. These two might not
get to Minnesota QB Adam Weber too
often, but they'll make their presence
felt. What will happen: Minnesota will
play its best game of the year, running
for around 250 yards and getting an
efficient day out of Weber, but it'll
also give away three key turnovers and
get torched by a huge day from Hardy. CFN Prediction:
Indiana 34 ...
Minnesota 23
... Line:
Indiana -13 Must See Rating: (5 Paris on
Letterman - 1 Singing Bee) ...
2
