It might not have the same importance of last year's classic, but it's still Ohio State vs. Michigan, and it still has plenty of bearing on the BCS. Will Chad Henne finally get his win over the Buckeyes, or will Chris Wells lead the way to a fourth straight win? Check out the previews and predictions for all the Week 12 Big Ten Games.
Ohio
State
(10-1) at Michigan
(8-3)
12:00 PM ABC
Why to watch: It's Michigan
vs. Ohio State for the Big Ten title.
What a shock. There might not be the
luster on this game of last year's
all-timer, and there might not be the
national interest there was two weeks
ago when the Buckeyes were No. 1 and the
lead dog in the national title chase,
but there's still reason for non-Big
Teners to be interested in the greatest
rivalry in sports. If OSU wins, it'll go
to the Rose Bowl and Michigan will be
all but certain to go to the Capital One
Bowl. Had the Wolverines beaten
Wisconsin last week, they could've had a
shot to slip into an at-large BCS slot
with a reasonable loss to the Buckeyes,
but now, any dreams of a big money
spotlight game rest on winning this week
so they can go to the Rose Bowl. If
you're a fan of the ACC, SEC or Big
East, the league's not assured, at the
moment, of a second team getting in the
BCS, you might need Ohio State to win.
Of course, the main storylines are about
Michigan. Last year the loss of Bo
Schembechler cranked up the intensity of
what was already the greatest matchup
ever between the two schools, while this
year, there's talk of Lloyd Carr
retiring at the end of the year, and
there's that 0-3 matzo ball hanging over
the head of the Michigan stars. QB Chad
Henne, RB Mike Hart and OT Jake Long
might be the most productive trio of
stars Michigan has ever had, but they
haven't beaten Ohio State and they
haven't won a bowl game. Rose Bowl,
schmose Bowl, this is the game they
desperately want. For Ohio State, a win
wouldn't just mean a four-game winning
streak over their hated rivals for the
first time since a run from 1960 to
1964, but it would keep the feint
national title dreams alive. It would
take a ton of crazy things to get to New
Orleans for the BCS Championship game,
but at 11-1, the slim hopes would still
exist. At worst, a loss should mean an
at-large BCS bid, while a win would mean
the first trip to the Rose Bowl in the
Jim Tressel era, and the program's first
game in Pasadena since beating Arizona
State and Jake Plummer in the 1997
classic. Why
Ohio State
might win: In a strange sort of way,
losing to Illinois last week might have
been the best thing that could've
happened to OSU for this game. Had the
Buckeyes been unbeaten, the pressure
would've been completely on their
shoulders, but now that they're not
playing for the national title, all the
pressure, all the focus, and all the
weight of the expectations are on
Michigan. If it the Wolverines can't
beat the Buckeyes this year, considering
this is a home game with all the stars
expected back and ready, then when will
it? Even if Hart and Henne are back and
ready, this was hardly a juggernaut when
they were right, needing to battle hard
to put points on the board. As good as
the Michigan offensive line is, it's
been mediocre in pass protection. The
Buckeye defensive front has been
terrific lately at getting to the
quarterback and should have few problems
popping Henne. Why Michigan might win: That
supposedly impenetrable Ohio State
secondary gave up four touchdown passes
to Juice Williams last week; one of the
nation's most inefficient passers. The
Buckeyes have faced one great receiving
corps this year, Purdue's and gave up
268 yards and a touchdown in the easy
win, and one good receiving corps in
Penn State, and shut it down. Mario
Manningham and Adrian Arrington are
playing extremely well and should
stretch things out enough to keep the
safeties deep. Michigan's big defensive
issues come against running
quarterbacks. That's not Todd Boeckman. Who to watch:
Chad Henne, Mike Hart, Jake Long, you're
on. Long has been an All-America rock
all season long, while Henne and Hart
have tried to fight through injuries
over the back half of the season. Short
of having a limb cut off, the two stars
won't be kept off the field in the game
they need to avoid the "yeah, but"
before their names in the history books.
Hart tore off 142 yards and two
touchdowns in last year's matchup, but
this year is a near mirror image of 2005
when he was hurts over the back half of
the season and was only able to carry
the ball nine times for 15 yards in a
25-21 loss. Henne might be 0-3 against
OSU, but it's not necessarily been his
fault. He's been terrific in the three
averaging showdowns averaging 273 yards
per game with five touchdown and two
interceptions, both coming in the first
game. For Henne and Hart, this is their
national title game. The Rose Bowl
wouldn't be icing on the cake if they
could get a win this week. It would be a
few sprinkles. What will happen: There
won't be any big kickoff returns. As
good as these two are, neither can
return a kickoff with Ohio State ranking
dead last in America. Ohio State is the
better team, but that hasn't always
meant much in this rivalry. This is the
game Michigan has waited all year for,
more than in most years. This has been
the team's obsession from day one, more
than in most years. This is when Henne
and Hart will cement themselves as
Wolverine legends as they send Lloyd
Carr off (wink, wink) with a perfect
ending to a regular season that started
out so horribly wrong. CFN Prediction:
Michigan 24
... Ohio State 20
...
Line: Ohio State -3 Must See
Rating: (5
On
HBO, "Michigan vs. Ohio State:
The Rivalry"
- 1 Writer strike induced
reruns) ... 5
Big 10 Saturday November 17
Northwestern
(6-5) at Illinois (8-3)
12:00 PM ESPN
Why to watch: All of a
sudden, Illinois is walking a
little taller and has the
nation's respect after running
over Ohio State in the 28-21
shocker. A win this week would
put the Illini in a position to
come up with a ten-win season
and likely get the Big Ten's No.
3 bowl slot going to either the
Outback or Capital One on New
Year's Day. Northwestern might
have gotten bowl eligible last
week with a 31-28 win over
Indiana, but it probably needs a
win this week, and then hope for
a break, to get one of the Big
Ten's precious bowl openings.
It's the Big Ten's best passing
offense (Northwestern) against
the league's best running attack
(Illinois), with the Illinois
trying to break a four-game
losing streak in the series. Why
Northwestern
might win: The Illinois secondary
can be thrown on. Ohio State's
fatal flaw last week Todd
Boeckman's three interceptions.
The Buckeyes went away from the
passing game as they tried to
pound the ball on the Illinois
defensive front seven. Big
mistake. That was an aberration;
Illinois only had four picks on
the year before the OSU win.
Northwestern will come out guns
blazing and challenge the
Illinois secondary from the
start. Whether out of necessity
(Wisconsin) or by design
(Michigan), teams that have made
sure to not go away from the
passing game have been able to
hang up big yards against
Illinois. C.J. Bacher will throw
for well over 300 yards, but ... Why Illinois might win: ... he'll
get picked off. As good as
Bacher has been all season long,
he's struggled lately with
interceptions giving away three
in each of the last three games.
The bigger problem will be a
Wildcat run defense that kept
Indiana's Kellen Lewis in check,
but got run on by Minnesota's
Adam Weber and has struggled at
making plays in the backfield.
If the Ohio State and Penn State
linebacking corps, arguably the
two best in the nation, couldn't
stop Juice Williams and the
Illinois running game, then what
hope does Northwestern have? Not
much. Who to watch:
All the Big Ten focus is on
Williams after his performance
against the Buckeyes, and
Rashard Mendenhall, who didn't
do much last week, but has been
the Big Ten's best back all
year. They'll get their yards,
but this might be the Tyrell
Sutton show. The Northwestern
junior is back from an ankle
problem and rolling with 116
yards and a touchdown against
Iowa and 141 yards and a score,
along with six catches for 72
yards, in the win over Indiana.
He ran for 110 yards and a
touchdown last year against the
Illini after ripping them apart
for 212 yards in 2005. He's
taking the pressure off Bacher,
and he has to have a big day as
both a runner and receiver for
the Wildcats to win. What will happen:
Illinois always has problems in
this game, and this year will be
no exception. Northwestern will
stay in the game by bombing
away, but Williams and
Mendenhall will turn out to be
too productive. They won't
control the fourth quarter like
they did against Ohio State, but
they'll dominate the time of
possession. CFN Prediction: Illinois
38 ...
Northwestern 27
...
Line: Illinois -13.5 Must See
Rating: (5
On
HBO, "Michigan vs. Ohio State:
The Rivalry"
- 1 Writer strike induced
reruns) ... 3
Purdue
(7-4) at Indiana (6-5)
3:30 PM Big Ten Network
Why to watch: The battle for
the Old Oaken Bucket might be
for more than just bragging
rights; it could be for a bowl
game. With the Big Ten to likely
have two, maybe three eligible
teams miss out on a bowl slot,
every positive on the résumé
will be noted. Purdue is
probably assured of a 13th game,
and a win over IU would cement
it. The Hoosiers have been using
"13th Game" as a rallying cry,
but they'll probably need to
break the five-game losing
streak to the Boilermakers to
get it. Not only has IU lost
five in a row to Purdue, it
hasn't even been close. This
should be the most competitive
game of the rivalry in recent
years. Why
Purdue
might win: It's all about keeping QB
Curtis Painter upright for the
Purdue offense to roll, and for
the most part this year, it's
done a good job. Indiana's
defense is built around getting
into the backfield and getting
to the quarterback, but that
leaves its tremendous corners
all alone most of the time.
That's fine against most teams,
but with the Purdue receiving
corps so deep and talented, if
Painter gets a little bit of
time to find his second and
third options, he'll be deadly.
IU's defense has been
consistently mediocre over the
last month, so if Kellen Lewis
and the offense can't crank out
at least 30 points, the Hoosiers
likely won't have a shot at
pulling this off. Why Indiana might win: The Purdue
defense has decided to take the
last two weeks off. Michigan
State and Penn State were able
to crank out a bit of balance to
move the ball without much of a
problem, and Indiana should have
similar success getting things
moving however it wants to.
Yeah, Purdue's offensive line
has been strong in pass
protection for the most part,
but Michigan State and Penn
State were able to get to
Painter just enough to screw
things up for a few drives.
That's why the key player for
the Hoosiers might be ... Who to watch:
... sophomore Greg Middleton,
who's second in the nation in
sacks. He's solid against the
run, but his real specialty has
been pressuring the passer all
season long. While it's
obviously not this simple, IU is
0-3 so far this year when he
fails to register a sack. He's a
tone-setter who forces offenses
to keep an extra blocker or two
on him on every play. The rest
of the line is feeding off this. What will happen: Indiana
is going retro with 1967 jerseys
and helmets to honor that Rose
Bowl team. The IU secondary will
keep this just close enough to
make it tight going into the
fourth quarter, but Purdue will
have too much balance to get
tripped up. The Boilermakers are
overdue for a great game. CFN Prediction:
Purdue
38 ... Indiana 31
...
Line: Purdue -2 Must See
Rating: (5
On
HBO, "Michigan vs. Ohio State:
The Rivalry"
- 1 Writer strike induced
reruns) ... 3
