Big 12 Fearless Predictions, Sept. 29

Previews and Predictions for the Week 5 Big 12 Games.

Big 12
North Colorado | Iowa St | Kansas | Kansas State | Missouri | Nebraska
South Baylor | Oklahoma | Oklahoma State | Texas | Texas A&M | Texas Tech

Big 12 Fearless Predictions Sept. 1 | Sept. 8 | Sept. 15 | Sept. 22
Oct. 6 | Oct. 13 | Oct. 20 | Oct. 27 | Nov. 3 | Nov. 10 | Nov. 17 | Nov. 24 | Dec. 1

Big 12 Week Five Predictions, Part 2

How are the picks so far? SU: 30-8 ... ATS: 16-14

Big 12 Game of the Week

Kansas State (2-1) at Texas (4-0)  3:30 PM ABC
Why to Watch: Texas has been talking about a revenge game in the Big 12 opener ever since Kansas State came up with an improbably 45-42 win last year in Manhattan, but its this year's Longhorn team actually good enough to do anything about it? A shaky 4-0, Texas started to play like Texas last week in a 58-14 win over a Rice team that's one of the five worst teams in America right now. With the showdown against Oklahoma next week, the hope will be to find semblance of consistency on offense, get nastier on defense, and come up with a blowout over a quality opponent. Kansas State has had two weeks off to prepare since its 61-10 win over Missouri State, and while this hasn't exactly been the smoothest team around, the defense is playing well enough to pull off yet another upset. Kansas State has only one once in Austin, a 35-17 win in 1999, but remember, the two teams were in difference leagues up until 1995.
Why Kansas State Might Win: The Wildcat defensive front has been tremendous. Fine, so anyone would look good against Auburn right now, and San Jose State and Missouri State aren't going to inspire more than a yawn, but the move to a flexible 3-4 has worked, creating even more big play opportunities in the backfield, more sacks, and more stops against the run. The Texas offense has been better than it's being made out to be, but it's not the juggernaut of past seasons. Stop Jamaal Charles, get to Colt McCoy, shut down Texas for extended stretches. 
Why Texas Might Win: Josh Freeman. The Kansas State quarterback lit up the Longhorn secondary like Times Square, throwing for 269 yards and three touchdowns, to go along with a rushing touchdown. To say he'll be a marked man in this game is an understatement. While he's an undeniable talent, he's still a long way away from becoming a steady, consistent playmaker, with just two touchdown passes and nine interceptions in his last five outings. Texas will wipe away the KSU running game and make Freeman try to win the game. There will be at least three interceptions there for the taking.
Who to Watch: Welcome to the 2007 season, Limas Sweed. The star Texas receiver was banged up over the first few games with an ankle injury, and then turned it up a notch against Rice last week, catching five passes for 139 yards and two touchdowns, and looking like he was playing at another level while doing it. He has 20 career touchdown catches, with Texas going 15-1 when he scores. The one loss came to the Wildcats last year.
What Will Happen: Texas will come up with one of its best defensive games of the year, but it'll still be a battle thanks to the Kansas State pass rush. Colt McCoy will get beaten up, battered and bruised, but he'll outplay Freeman and get the win.
CFN Prediction: Texas 30 ... Kansas State 14 ... Line: Texas -15.5
Must See Rating: (5 Ken Burns' The War - 1 The Big Bang Theory) ... 3.5

Big 12 Saturday, Sept. 29

Baylor (3-1) at Texas A&M (3-1)  12:30 PM
Why to Watch: The two teams come in on different tracks, with Baylor going for its first four game winning streak since 1991, while Texas A&M is coming off an embarrassing, strange performance in the 34-17 loss to Miami. The Aggies are still a bit of a question mark, only beating badly the true weaklings on the slate, and needing to look strong against the supposed weakest team in the Big 12 at home. The Bears are thinking otherwise. Three layup games have allowed QB Blake Szymanski to get some good work in and tune up the offense. It'll be passing vs. running. Power vs. finesse. It should be entertaining.
Why Baylor Might Win: All of a sudden, A&M's secondary isn't stopping anyone. No, Miami QB Kyle Wright isn't another Tom Brady, but he sure looked like it against the Aggie defense, completing 21 of 26 passes for 275 yards and two touchdowns. The A&M D isn't generating enough pressure, and the corners aren't doing enough to stop the midrange passes. Baylor might be one-dimensional, but that one-dimension is working effectively. Against Buffalo, there was actually a little bit of running game for the first time in years, but it's going to be bombs away.
Why Texas A&M Might Win: Baylor has only faced one team that can remotely run, TCU, and it got motored over for 181 yards. A&M isn't going to get all fancy and cute like it did against Miami; it's going to pound away with Jorvorskie Lane, who's rested after getting a mere two carries, and it's going to run, and run, and run some more. Baylor's pass defense will give up a big plays, but that A&M air show isn't going to be needed this week.
Who to Watch: How do you have a star back like Lane, who had carried the ball 44 times in the first three games with seven touchdowns, and only give him the ball twice for two yards in the biggest game of the year? Credit Miami, specifically star end Calais Campbell, for taking Lane out of the equation, but also blame the A&M coaching staff for not making sure its star got into a lather. The A&M offensive line got whipped by the quick Cane D line, but Baylor isn't Miami up front. Expect a steady dose of Lane this week.
What Will Happen: Texas A&M has plenty of holes, but it's had a few extra days to sit and stew about the bad game it plays. Baylor will bear the brunt of a focused team looking to reestablish its season.
CFN Prediction: Texas A&M 34 ... Baylor 21 ... Line: Texas A&M -16.5
Must See Rating: (5 Ken Burns' The War - 1 The Big Bang Theory) ... 2.5

Oklahoma (4-0) at Colorado (2-2)  1:30 PM
Why to Watch: We're not exactly talking about the 2004 Big 12 Championship here. Even so, this is must-see TV just to keep an eye on Oklahoma and if it can continue to keep up playing at such a ridiculously high level. The Sooner defense had a few down moments against Tulsa, but the offense picked up the slack in the 62-21 win. Still trying to kick the door down and get more consideration in the top two of the rankings, there's no margin for error in the beauty contest, and that means just winning by 14 points might not be enough. For Colorado, a 42-0 blowout win over Miami University might have been just what the team needed after struggling to get anything going in losses to Arizona State and Florida State. The defense has been solid so far, but it'll have to play at another level to give the Sooners any sort of a battle.
Why Oklahoma Might Win: Colorado's defense has been good, but it's not forcing mistakes and it's not coming up with takeaways. To beat Oklahoma, who the Buffs will have to win the turnover margin by at least three, and it's not going to happen. With Cody Hawkins at the helm, CU's offense is generating plenty of passing yards, but this is hardly an efficient passing game and it's not a great offense against defenses with a pulse. OU's defense has a strong heartbeat.
Why Colorado Might Win: The team isn't as bad as you probably think it is, and it's certainly not as bad as it was last year. With Hugh Charles back running the ball, there's a balance to the offense that was missing over the first few games. The offensive line is playing better than any the Sooners have had to face so far (outside of their own practices), and there should be plenty of chances for the skill players to operate. The Buffs are solid at getting into the backfield, and should be able to hit Sam Bradford a little bit.
Who to Watch: Welcome to the next four years of the Big 12, as redshirt freshmen quarterbacks Cody Hawkins and Sam Bradford will duel in a battle of two of the league's newest stars. Everyone's starting to know about Bradford, who's lighting everyone up like a Christmas tree, completing 78% of his passes with 14 touchdowns and two interceptions. As good as he's been, you could throw for 250 yards if you got to work with Malcolm Kelly and Juaquin Iglesias and got to play behind the OU O line. Hawkins would be Bradford if he had the talent around him to work with, but he's had to press a bit more, and it's shown, throwing six interceptions and just six touchdown passes. To have any shot, Hawkins will have to outplay Bradford by a long shot.
What Will Happen: The OU run defense will get pounded on for the first time all year, but the receivers aren't there to help out Hawkins once the Sooners get up. It'll take three quarters for OU to pull away.
CFN Prediction: Oklahoma 41 ... Colorado 14  ... Line: Oklahoma -22.5
Must See Rating: (5 Ken Burns' The War - 1 The Big Bang Theory) ... 3

Big 12 Week Five Predictions, Part 2