It's Show Me time for William Franklin and Missouri, and for several other teams in the Big 12, as Kansas battles Kansas State, Oklahoma State takes on Texas A&M, and oh yeah, Texas has a little tussle against Oklahoma, in one of the biggest weekends of the season. Check out the predictions, previews and more for all the Big 12 games.
How are the picks so far? SU: 34-10 ... ATS: 17-17
Big 12 Game of
the Week
Oklahoma
(4-1) vs. Texas
(4-1) 3:30
PM ABC
Why to Watch: There
are two ways to look at this. 1) It's a
battle of disappointed teams that blew
it last week against supposedly inferior
opponents, or 2), this is a battle of
two desperate teams looking to keep
flickering national title hopes alive.
Oklahoma collapsed late against Colorado
last week, but this is still a BCS-strong
team that might have simply been overrun
by a bad string of momentum and a few
big breakdowns in all phases. This is
still a Sooner team that obliterated
Miami. This is still a Sooner team that
had led the nation in scoring. This is
still a Sooner team must gear it back
up, of all of a sudden, Texas will have
a three-game winning streak in what had
become a one-sided series the other way.
Texas looked lousy over most of the
first four games of the season, mainly
getting by with timely defense and just
enough offense. After a horrible
performance in the 41-21 loss to Kansas
State, everything can change with a win
this week. If the Longhorns can pull it
off, then things open up nicely with
Iowa State and Baylor before hosting
Nebraska. No matter what, OU will have
to gear it back up next week against
Missouri.
Why Oklahoma Might Win: The Texas
offense is in disarray. QB Colt McCoy is
dinged up with a concussion suffered
against Kansas State, he isn't getting
enough time to throw, the running game
has been pedestrian, even with a nice
start to the year from Jamaal Charles,
and the receiving corps has been
mediocre. It's possible OU could get on
an early run and end this before the
first quarter is over, while Texas will
still have to battle hard if it gets up
big early. The Texas secondary, overall,
is playing better than it did last year,
but it hasn't faced anyone who can throw
it more than ten yards down the field.
OU leads the nation in pass efficiency,
and if the line can give Sam Bradford
time, the Sooner receivers should be
able to pick apart the Longhorn corners. Why Texas Might Win: The Texas
defense can't be to blame for the rough
early start. No, the linebackers haven't
quite played up to snuff, and there
weren't any big stops against Kansas
State, but last week's loss is on the
offense and special teams. The run
defense has done a better job than it's
being given credit for, considering
teams like TCU, Arkansas State, and UCF
can only move the ball on the ground.
The game plan is simple. Stop the OU
running game, hope the defensive front
can at least hurry Bradford, try to win
the field position battle, and take
advantage of every opportunity. Who to Watch: With all the stars
and all the NFL talent on display, the
spotlight is on two punters. Texas
couldn't stop Kansas State's Jordy
Nelson last week, and is netting a mere
28 yards per kick. The coverage teams
have to be better, but sophomore Trevor
Garland, who did a nice job against TCU
and UCF, has keep OU pinned deep. Texas
isn't likely to go on too many long
drives against any top defenses. OU
punter Michael Cohen could turn out to
be the star of the show if the Longhorns
are starting several drives inside their
30. What Will Happen: McCoy will get
batted around, John Chiles will see a
little bit of work, and Texas will
struggle to get points on the board. OU
won't blow up like it did against Miami,
but it'll pull away in the second half
after a mistake-filled first half. CFN Prediction:
Oklahoma 34
... Texas 20
... Line:
Oklahoma -11 Must See Rating: (5 Paris on
Letterman - 1 Singing Bee) ...
4.5
Big 12 Saturday, Oct. 6
Kansas (4-0) at Kansas State
(3-1) 12:00
PM
Why to Watch: Is
this the biggest football game in the
history of the two schools? If not, it
could turn out to be, as Kansas State is
flying high after beating Texas 41-21,
while Kansas started off its season
playing as well as anyone in America,
coming into the game ranked first in the
nation in scoring defense, fourth in
scoring offense, third in total offense
and third in total defense. We know
about the Wildcats, with a tough defense
and tremendous special teams, and we
know they're good enough hang with the
big boys. We still don't know anything
about KU, with its biggest win coming
over Central Michigan, but a win over
the Wildcats might mean a monster jump
in the rankings. Basically, everyone's
waiting to see what the team can do
against someone with a pulse. The Big 12
North is suddenly looking nasty, with
five real contenders and Iowa State, so
a loss will put a serious crimp in any
title hopes, while a win will be bigger
than it'll probably get credit for on a
national scale.
Why Kansas Might Win: Lost in the
win over Texas, and in the near-miss
against Auburn, was how the Kansas State
offense simply didn't work. Oh sure, it
looked great against San Jose State, and
put up huge numbers against Missouri
State, but the offense went nowhere
against Texas and there wasn't any
running game to speak of against Auburn.
It took a trick pass play to score on
the Tigers, and it took a whopping 58
pass attempts to get to 289 yards. The
KU secondary is still untested, but the
run defense has been a rock. If the
Jayhawks can avoid the big turnover, can
limit the big special teams play, and
can get up early, they should be able to
pull off the road win. Why Kansas State Might Win: The
Wildcats are finding ways to get it
done. Whether it's a punt return here, a
key sack there, or a timely defensive
stop, they're finding ways to make
things happen. The offense might not be
humming, but the line has been great in
pass protection, while the new 3-4
defense has been generating consistent
pressure. For the first time all year
long, the timing of the KU offense will
be disrupted, and for the first time all
year long, KU will have to face a little
bit of adversity. Kansas State knows
what it can do in tough games with the
pressure on. Kansas doesn't. Who to Watch: In a game like
this, things can change in an instant
with a big kick return, and these two
teams have the best return games in
America. Kansas leads the nation in
kickoff returns, averaging 32.78 yards
per try, led by Marcus Herford, who
averages 33 yards per try. Kansas State
got a kickoff return for a touchdown
against Texas from James Johnson, while
Leon Patton is the main man, averaging
26 yards per return. The real stars of
the KSU show are the punt returners,
leading the nation with a gaudy
27.2-yard average thanks to touchdowns
from Deon Murphy and Jordy Nelson.
Nelson has been on fire the last two
weeks, catching 27 passes for 326 yards
and three touchdowns, while averaging 57
yards per punt return. What Will Happen: Kansas won't
give up the big turnovers needed for the
KSU offense to feed off of. This will be
a surprising defensive battle for about
a half, and then KU's offensive balance
will take over in the second half. The
Wildcats will start to press, will turn
it over a few times, and KU will pull
away late. CFN Prediction:
Kansas 27
... Kansas State 17
... Line:
Kansas State -3 Must See Rating: (5 Paris on
Letterman - 1 Singing Bee) ...
4
Oklahoma State
(3-2) at Texas A&M
(4-1) 7:30
PM
Why to Watch: All
of a sudden, the Big 12 South looks very
winnable. At least, more winnable than
it did last week at this time, when
Oklahoma was looking like a juggernaut
and Texas was still unbeaten. With huge
tests ahead for both teams, this might
be an elimination game in the Big 12
title race, and at the very least, it'll
be a vital win for one team, and the
heat will be turned up a bit for the
loser. No, Mike Gundy isn't on a hot
seat at Oklahoma State, but after making
the news for his tirade after the Texas
Tech game, he could use all the wins he
can get to put the focus back on the
field. A&M's Dennis Franchione has to
keep winning to save his job, but with
four road trips ahead in the next five
games, and the final six games against
certain bowl teams, including road dates
against Missouri and Nebraska from the
North, this is as big a game as it gets.
If you like running games, this is for
you, with A&M ranking fifth in the
nation on the ground and Oklahoma State
eighth.
Why Oklahoma State Might Win: Texas
A&M can be run on. So far, everyone
outside of UL Monroe has tried to beat
the Aggies through the air, with decent
success against a secondary that'll give
up yards in chunks. If Oklahoma State
can start with the ground game, keep
hammering with it, and stay committed no
matter what, the home runs will
eventually be there for the taking. WR
Adarius Bowman should see just enough
single coverage to make a few big plays,
while the ground game has the better
potential for backbreaking runs, as
opposed to A&M's more grinding style. Why Texas A&M Might Win: OSU is
just banged up enough to be a possible
problem against the run. LB Chris
Collins and DBs Andre Sexton and Martel
Van Zant are all going to play, but they
could wear down after getting hurt a few
weeks ago against Texas Tech.
Considering the two teams will try to
win on the ground, turnovers could mean
the difference, meaning A&M has a big
advantage. OSU gives it away, and the
Aggies take it away. Expect A&M to have
a plus-two in turnover margin, and for
the offense to capitalize on the
mistakes. Who to Watch: A&M has its
blueprint on how to beat OSU from the
tapes of Troy's stunning 41-23 win. The
Trojans like to work on the ground game,
but QB Omar Haugabook was able to make
the passing game go by getting on the
move and creating time and space for
himself outside of the pocket. Aggie QB
Stephen McGee can throw, and while the
ideal option will be to pound the ball
with Jorvorskie Lane and Mike Goodson,
passing yards should be there for the
taking. McGee threw for 200 yards last
weekend for 237 against UL Monroe. If he
goes over 200, A&M will likely win with
ease. What Will Happen: The two teams
will combine for at least 500 rushing
yards, but the A&M passing game will be
a bit more effective on third downs, and
OSU will get killed by two big
turnovers. CFN Prediction:
Texas A&M
40 ... Oklahoma State 27
... Line:
Texas A&M -6 Must See Rating: (5 Paris on
Letterman - 1 Singing Bee) ...
3 Big 12 Week
Five Predictions, Part 2
