Now that Chase Coffman and Missouri have blown away Nebraska, the expectations are jacked up. That was good, but beating Oklahoma in Norman would be better. Check out the preview, prediction and analysis of this, and all the games in the Week 7 Big 12 Fearless Predictions.
How are the picks so far? SU: 40-10 ... ATS:
20-20
Big 12 Game of
the Week
Missouri (5-0) at Oklahoma
(5-1) 6:30
PM Fox Sports Net
Why to Watch: Off
to its best start since 1981, and
looking to go 6-0 for the first time
since 1973, Missouri is now on the
national radar after a dominant 41-6
destruction of Nebraska last week.
Unfortunately, few paid much attention,
with the showdown in Columbia going on
at the same time as LSU-Florida, Notre
Dame-UCLA, Ohio State-Purdue, and
Stanford-USC, but it was still the type
of defining win that showed just how
strong the team might really be. And now
things are cranked up a few notches. In
what might be a Big 12 title game
preview, the Tigers are looking to beat
Oklahoma in Norman for the first time
since 1966. The Sooners overcame the
loss to Colorado with a somewhat uneven
performance in a 28-21 win over Texas,
and while they're still high in the
rankings, and within range of sneaking
into the national title hunt again, they
need this win in a big way. If they can
pull this out, the schedule eases up in
a big way, with Texas A&M coming to
Norman, and the toughest road test left
at Texas Tech. This is when Oklahoma has
to start playing like the team that
crushed and killed its way through the
first five games. This is the when
Missouri has to show it's a true
national title player. It should be a
shootout, and it should be one of the
most important games of the weekend.
Why Missouri Might Win: All of a
sudden, the Oklahoma secondary can't
seem to tackle and is having a rough
time getting beaten deep. Everyone had
to throw on OU early on, trying to come
back after getting down big early, but
Colt McCoy of Texas was able to put up
big yards despite being under constant
pressure all game long, and not getting
much from his star receivers. Colorado
was able to get the big passes in the
clutch, and then there was Tulsa. While
the Tigers and the Golden Hurricane
don't play the same brand of offense,
their overall styles aren't too far off.
Paul Smith and the Tulsa attack lit up
the OU secondary like a Christmas tree,
giving Mizzou a blueprint of how to keep
things up-tempo, get the quarterback on
the move, and put up get the receivers
involved early. The Sooners aren't great
when the momentum isn't going their way,
but at home, when things start clicking
... Why Oklahoma Might Win: .. the
offense has been unbelievable. Some
teams are just night-and-day better on
their own turf, and while beating up
Utah State and North Texas certainly
isn't any big whoop, the destruction of
Miami still counts. Missouri hasn't been
steady at getting to the quarterback,
and if Sam Bradford gets time, he's
deadly. Like OU, Missouri has given up a
ton of passing yards to teams in
comeback mode, considering there hasn't
been a who's who of passing teams on the
schedule so far, giving up 265 yards per
game through the air is still a concern. Who to Watch: Last week was Chase
Daniel's time to get in the Heisman
race, throwing for a career-best 401
yards and two touchdowns against the
Huskers, and this week it's time to
exorcise the demons. In last year's
26-10 loss to Oklahoma, he ran well, but
tried doing to much, with 75 yards and a
touchdown on 20 carries, and three
interceptions with no touchdown passes.
The Tiger offense is humming, with all
the weapons getting an equal chance to
shine, and it has to be Daniel who makes
the right reads, the right plays, and
gets everyone involved. This might be
the first time all year long the Tigers
will have to deal with real adversity,
and it'll be up to its veteran star to
keep everyone calm, keep the offense
moving, and settle things down after the
inevitable OU home runs. What Will Happen: OU might be
different at home, but it's been shaky
over the last three weeks and isn't
nearly as sharp as it probably should
be. Missouri is the real deal. This is a
balanced, dangerous offense that'll
overcome at least two long OU touchdowns
to pull off the stunning win thanks to
two key turnovers and a big late drive
from Daniel. CFN Prediction:
Missouri 34
... Oklahoma 31
... Line:
Oklahoma -10.5 Must See Rating: (5 Hideki
Matsui's "collection" - 1 The
Heartbreak Kid) ...
4.5
Big 12 Saturday, Oct. 13
Texas (4-2) at
Iowa State (1-5)
12:30
PM
Why to Watch: There
are different levels of down. There's
down, like Texas, after losing at home
to Kansas State, and then dropping a
tough battle to Oklahoma to all but
eliminate itself from the Big 12 race.
And then there's Iowa State down,
playing like one of the worst teams in
America, and starting off the Big 12
season 0-2 by losing to Nebraska and
Texas Tech by a combined score of 77 to
34. Cyclone head coach Gene Chizik has
his program in rebuilding mode, and
while things might be tough, he can
quickly generate a buzz by beating the
team he helped out over the last two
years as the defensive coordinator.
Texas has never lost to Iowa State,
going 6-0 all-time, with only one game
decided by fewer than double digits.
With Baylor and a down Nebraska coming
up, this has to be when Texas gets
healthy again. Anything less than a
blowout will get the fan base buzzing
for all the wrong reasons.
Why Texas Might Win: Iowa State is
struggling to put points on the board.
It managed 35 in the loss to Toledo and
its horrible defense, and hasn't scored
more than 17 against anyone else.
Texas might be struggling, but it hasn't
scored fewer than 21 so far.
Defensively, the Cyclone secondary
hasn't given up a ton of yards, but it's
been picked way too easily when teams
make a commitment to throwing the ball.
Texas is throwing it well, even if it
hasn't been all that efficient, and
should be able to put up 300 yards if
Colt McCoy gets time to work. Why Iowa State Might Win: Who
knows Texas better than Chizik? He
recruited just about all the top
defensive players, and he should be able
to match coaching move for coaching
move. Iowa State's big problem has been
turnovers, but Texas has had just as
many problems. If the Cyclones can win
the mistake battle, and capitalize on
every opportunity, Texas could implode.
So far, the Longhorns haven't been able
to come up with a crisp 60 minutes of
football. Who to Watch: Texas senior Limas
Sweed was supposed to be in for an
All-America caliber season, but an
injured wrist, suffered just before the
season started, was a problem as he
caught just 19 passes for 306 yards and
three touchdowns, with most of the
production coming in the blowout win
over Rice. Now he's out for the year,
needing to undergo surgery. That means
several receivers will have to pick up
the slack, primarily Jordan Shipley and
Billy Pittman, who was suspended for the
first four games. Neither have made much
of an impact so far, but they'll play
huge roles, while Quan Cosby will be the
likely number one target. What Will Happen: Texas won't
play well for yet another week, but it
won't matter. Iowa State will keep it
tight until the third quarter, and then
the Longhorns will pull away with two
good drives. CFN Prediction:
Texas 34
... Iowa State 17
... Line:
Texas -16 Must See Rating: (5 Hideki
Matsui's "collection" - 1 The
Heartbreak Kid) ...
2
Baylor (3-3)
at Kansas (5-0)
12:30
PM
Why to Watch: Kansas
lost to Baylor last year in a 36-35
shootout, and since then has gone 8-1,
starting out this season with an
impressive 30-24 win at Kansas State
last week making everyone sit up and
finally take notice. Now the key will be
to avoid a letdown, with road dates with
Colorado and Texas A&M ahead. Baylor
hasn't been good. The offense hasn't
been consistent, and the defense, while
not horrible, hasn't been able to pick
up the slack. Any possible dream of a
bowl season has to start with a win this
week, as things don't get any easier
over the final five games. If Kansas is
the real deal, it wins this game by 20
without trying. If Baylor comes in hot
and gets the passing game revved up,
this could be the shocker of the Big 12
season.
Why Baylor Might Win: The Kansas
secondary was the worst in America last
season, and this year, things appear to
be night-and-day different, ranking
eighth in the nation in pass defense,
and fifth in pass efficiency defense. Is
it a mirage? The Jayhawks had played one
team, Central Michigan, that's throwing
it remotely well, and then it got Kansas
State. The secondary picked off three
passes against the Wildcats, but it also
gave up 310 yards. Baylor's offense
hasn't been consistent, but it has
thrown for 400 yards or more in three
games, including last week in the loss
to Colorado. If KU is on a letdown after
beating Kansas State, it could be in for
a shock if the Bears are bombing away. Why Kansas Might Win: Kansas
might just keep the ball so long that
Baylor won't be able to get in the game.
The Bears are dead last in America in
time of possession, holding on to the
ball for just 25:54, bottoming out
against Texas A&M by losing the time
battle 43:18 to 16:42. Kansas is
converting 44% of its third down
chances, with tremendous balance that
should keep Baylor's defense guessing
all game long. So far, KU isn't making
any major screwups, and if it's able to
take care of the ball, it should be able
to win without a problem. It'll take a
special set of circumstances for BU to
win without winning the turnover battle
by at least +2. Who to Watch: KU's Aqib Talib
was an All-America caliber corner last
year on an awful defense. This year,
he's one of the nation's best dual
threat playmakers, albeit in a limited
role. He's a defensive back, not a
receiver, but he has seven catches for
174 yards and four touchdowns so far,
and has picked off a pass in each of the
last three games. Baylor will throw it
60 times, and it won't be able to avoid
Talib for the entire game. What Will Happen: KU should be
primed for a letdown, but it hasn't
happened so far. Baylor isn't generating
enough production from either side of
the ball to win a game like this. CFN Prediction:
Kansas 51
... Baylor 20
... Line:
Kansas -25 Must See Rating: (5 Hideki
Matsui's "collection" - 1 The
Heartbreak Kid) ...
2
Big 12 Week Seven Predictions, Part 2
