Scout.com: Big 12 Fearless Predictions, Nov. 3

Big 12 Fearless Predictions, Nov. 3

Oklahoma State RB Dantrell Savage

By Staff

CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Nov 1, 2007

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Previews and Predictions for the Week 10 Big 12 Games.

How are the picks so far? SU: 54-13 ... ATS: 30-27

Big 12 Week 10 Predictions, Part 2

Big 12 Game of the Week

Texas (7-2) at Oklahoma State (5-3) 3:30 PM ABC
Why to watch: Alright Oklahoma State, let's see just how good you really are. The Cowboys haven't beaten the Longhorns since 1997 and are 1-10 in the series since the formation of the Big 12. There's have been Longhorn wins when OSU got its heart ripped out, and there have been blowouts, and now the Cowboys are looking for a chance to take a firm grasp of spot in the Big 12 South race with Oklahoma still to play. This marks part three of an OSU homestand, with Kansas State and Kansas as the bookends, that'll prove whether or not Mike Gundy's team is for real. So far, so good, beating the Wildcats 41-39 after thumping Nebraska. Texas is coming off a scintillating Jamaal Charles fourth quarter performance to beat Nebraska, and it's hoping to catch fire, win its final three games, and hope for Oklahoma to lose twice along the way. At the very least, closing out with a six-game winning streak would put the Longhorns in the discussion for an at-large BCS bid, but first, they have to get by an Oklahoma State team that might be just hitting its stride.
Why Texas might win: You beat Oklahoma State by stopping the run, and Texas can do that. It might not be a brick wall of a defensive front, but it's improved over the second half of the year and has good enough tackling defensive backs to keep the good Cowboy runs from being the backbreaking killers they can occasionally come up with. OSU's defense can be bombed on, ranking last in the Big 12 in pass defense. Colt McCoy should have plenty of time to work, and he should be able to put up one of his best statistical days of the year. A 300-yard performance should be expected against a pass defense allowing 308 per game.
Why Oklahoma State might win: Something's missing from Texas. The production has been fine, the offense has cranked out yards, and the defense has been solid, for the most part, but it's missing an aura and a spark that past teams had. Lack of consistency has been a problem, as has been the lack of the big play, outside of a jaw-dropping fourth quarter from Charles last week. Yeah, the run defense has gotten better, but everyone looks great against the Iowa State, Baylor and Nebraska ground games. OSU has been unbelievable on the ground over the last two weeks, rolling for 317 on Nebraska and 329 against Kansas State, and has cranked out an average of 283 yards per game since getting stuffed for a mere 70 in the season opener against Georgia.
Who to watch: With all due respect to Colorado's Hugh Charles and Texas A&M's Jorvorskie Lane, this game will feature the Big 12's two best running backs. Jamaal Charles has been the first Big 12 back this year to hit the 1,000-yard mark, helped by an all-timer of a game against Nebraska with 290 yards and three fourth quarter touchdowns. He needed the bounceback game after seeing limited work for two weeks, and now he'll be a marked man as Texas tries to run a balanced attack against OSU. Charles might be playing well, but no one's been hotter than OSU's Dantrell Savage, who came back from missing two games to run for 100 yards in each of the last five games, While not a touchdown maker, he's averaging six yards per carry and has been the focal point of the offense over the last few weeks.
What will happen: After getting two weeks off to prepare, this will be Oklahoma State's statement game. The frustrations of the past will come out in an early flurry, and Texas will need a furious rally to get back in the game. The Cowboys will hold on with a long late drive.
CFN Prediction: Oklahoma State 34 ... Texas 31 ... Line: Texas -3
Must See Rating: (5 Heidi Klum on Victoria's Secret Fashion Show - 1 Heidi Klum on Oprah) ... 4

Big 12 Saturday, November 3rd

Kansas State (5-3) at Iowa State (1-8) 12:30 PM
Why to watch: Iowa State has been close over the last two weeks, or as close as you can get and still lose by double digits. Oklahoma and Missouri might meet up in the Big 12 title game, and Iowa State played the two teams tough. Fine, so the two superpowers didn't exactly crank up the intensity until they had to, but it was still a decent two weeks for a program that's lost six straight with one of the worst offenses in America. Kansas State is a win away from bowl eligibility, and while it's all but out of the North title hunt, it can still finish with a fantastic flourish with Nebraska and Fresno State still to play, along with a date against Missouri. This kicks off a string of three road games in the final four
Why Kansas State might win: The 28 points Iowa State put up last week was an explosion for the nation's 116th ranked scoring offense. The Kansas Sate offense average 38.75 points per game, while ISU has yet to score more than 38. Yes, it might just be that simple. The Iowa State offense doesn't do any one thing particularly well, while Kansas State has found its stride with a nice mix of things happening in all phases. The Wildcats like to run the ball, but they'll be able to move it through the air without much of a problem this week.
Why Iowa State might win: Oklahoma. Is it possible the Cyclones can play like they did against OU, at least defensively? The front line got pressure into the backfield, the linebackers were making plays to keep runs to a minimum, and the secondary prevented the home run. It all added up to a near-miss after having a chance deep in Sooner territory late in the game. The same home magic has to kick in. Offensively, the line has done a decent job in pass protection and should be able to keep Bret Meyer relatively clean.
Who to watch: Iowa State got a little spark of life last week, and a nice hope for the future, with the emergence of freshman RB Alexander Robinson, who tore off 149 yards in the loss to Missouri. He joins leading rusher J.J. Bass, who has had problems with a shoulder injury, and Jason Scales, who has been out hurt, as part of a good-looking backfield that could emerge over the final few weeks. Robinson is a small, quick back who could add a spark of life to an offense in need of one.
What will happen: Kansas State is playing too well in all three phases to blow a game like this. As long as the Wildcats are taking this seriously, they should be able to end this by the start of the fourth quarter.
CFN Prediction: Kansas State 34 ... Iowa State 16... Line: Kansas State -19.5
Must See Rating: (5 Heidi Klum on Victoria's Secret Fashion Show - 1 Heidi Klum on Oprah) ... 2

Nebraska (4-5) at Kansas (8-0) 12:30 PM
Why to watch: There was a time not all that long ago when Nebraska was actually good. In fact, the Huskers had won 36 in a row over Kansas and 37 of 38. Now, Kansas is a 19.5-point favorite an in the national title hunt, Nebraska is on a four-game losing streak and about undergo a regime change as the good Dr. Tom is almost certain to clean house once the season is over, and times have definitely changed in the Big 12 North. Making matters worse for Nebraska is the loss of starting QB Sam Keller, who was hardly the problem in this lost season. KU is rolling, Nebraska is reeling, and now there's an expected blowout the other way after decades of Big Red dominance. However, if Nebraska wins this game, it'll just need to beat either Kansas State or Colorado to be bowl eligible and possibly salvage something out of this year. Ruining KU's dream would be a nice end to the slide. On the other side, to stay in the Big 12 race, a KU win might be a must considering a trip to Oklahoma State is ahead.
Why Nebraska might win: For three quarters, Nebraska actually had Texas beaten. The offense was moving a little bit, the defense was doing its job, and there was an opportunity for the Huskers to come up with a big road win that would've changed the season around. Texas RB Jamaal Charles ended that in a big way, but the team still showed that it could play a little bit. There's nothing to lose. Nebraska can pull out all the stops, while Kansas has all the pressure in the world on its shoulders. KU likely won't get to the quarterback often, so the chances will be there to bomb away.
Why Kansas might win: The Nebraska Cornhuskers are dead last in America against the run. Let that sink in for a moment. The team that was such a brick wall for so long can't stop anyone from running. Home runs, long drives, pounding in the middle or getting to the corner on the outside, Nebraska can't stop anything. The line is also having major problems getting into the backfield, but getting the running game going will be job one for KU. The Huskers have allowed 1,040 yards in the last three weeks, and more than 300 in each game, while Kansas will shift its balanced attack to hammer away on the ground early on. The KU offensive line should dominate from the opening snap.
Who to watch: With Keller out for the year, it's now up to junior Joe Ganz to run the Nebraska offense and try to pump some life into the team. While he doesn't come across as the NFL-type gunslinger Sam Keller looked like, he has a nice arm, better mobility, and can play. He had a terrific spring, causing some to wonder if it would be Keller under center to start the year. At this point, he becomes the team's big wild card.
What will happen: Kansas always, always takes Nebraska seriously. There won't be any letdown as the Jayhawks look to get a little bit of revenge for all the years of beatdowns. Kansas, who's averaging 54.4 points per game at home, will mix it up for over 500 yards of total offense as it gets more style points in the BCS hunt.
CFN Prediction: Kansas 40 ... Nebraska 14 ... Line: Kansas -19.5
Must See Rating: (5 Heidi Klum on Victoria's Secret Fashion Show - 1 Heidi Klum on Oprah) ... 2.5