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Iowa State (3-8) at Kansas
(10-0)
3:30 PM ABC
Why to watch: Normally one
of the most ignored games on the Big 12
schedule, now the glare of the national
spotlight is on as Kansas tries to get
through this week before the showdown
with Missouri in Kansas City. The
Jayhawks might be ranked third in the
latest BCS poll, but a skeptical nation
is still waiting for something more than
just a win over Oklahoma State. Beating
Iowa State wouldn't exactly get the
world on the KU bandwagon, but a close
call of any kind in the final home game
of the year would help Oregon and others
immeasurably. The Cyclones aren't just
going to be a pushover with two straight
wins and all the pressure off. Gene
Chizik's club is playing just well
enough to be yet another spoiler in this
wild season.
Why
Iowa State
might win: Iowa State has figured
out how to start playing some offense.
Painfully bad for most of the first
eight games of the season, the infusion
of young players has provided a
desperately needed spark. While hardly
Texas Tech when it comes to cranking out
yards, the Cyclones are taking advantage
of every opportunity now and has figured
out how to finally start getting into
the end zone. The Kansas defense isn't
nearly as good as the statistics might
suggest. As Oklahoma State and Nebraska
showed, the secondary can be bombed on.
However ...
Why Kansas might win: ... it's
not like the Cyclones are going to throw
300 passing yards on the board. Outside
of a few big plays to Todd Blythe in
last week's win over Colorado, the Iowa
State passing game has way too
inconsistent to roll for a full sixty
minutes in a game like this. Fine, so
Kansas might not be full of a who's who
of pro prospects like LSU and Oklahoma,
but no one is playing more efficiently
on offense. To beat Kansas, Iowa State
has to not only be perfect, it has to
force several mistakes and that's not
going to happen. The Cyclones don't
force turnovers, while KU leads the
nation in turnover margin. The Jayhawks
lead the country in kickoff returns
averaging 30.19 yards per try, while ISU
is 115th averaging 17.78 yards per
return, and is dead last in punt returns
averaging 3.25 yards per try.
Who to watch:
It's the final game in the long and
interesting careers of the Iowa State
pitch-catch combination of Bret Meyer to
Todd Blythe. The roommates have been
mainstays of the program for the last
four years with Blythe catching 174
passes averaging 17.67 yards per grab
with 31 touchdowns, while Meyer has
produced 10,310 yards of total offense
with 50 touchdown passes and 12 scoring
runs. The two hooked up for two
touchdowns last week, and will likely be
bombing away this week to keep up with
the KU attack.
What will happen: Iowa
State will put up a much, much bigger
fight than Kansas might like. The
Jayhawks have too good at answering
scores with scores of their own and will
be able to handle a little bit of
adversity to get the win, but it'll be a
bit of a battle.
CFN Prediction:
Kansas 40 ...
Iowa State
23
...
Line: Kansas -25
Must See
Rating: (5
On
HBO, "Michigan vs. Ohio State:
The Rivalry"
- 1 Writer strike induced
reruns) ... 2.5
Missouri
(9-1)
at Kansas State
(5-5)
12:30 PM
Why to watch: Trap ...
TRAAAAAP. Missouri is rolling along at
9-1 on a dominant four-game winning
streak and with a shot at being in the
national title discussion if it wins
this week, beats Kansas, and wins the
Big 12 title game over (most likely)
Oklahoma. Of course, this week shouldn't
be a problem, right? After all, the
Wildcats have lost two straight to Iowa
State and Nebraska, the two worst teams
in the North, by a combined score of 104
to 51. After a promising start, KSU has
hit a wall over the last four weeks and
now needs to win its final two games to
realistically be in the mix for a bowl
bid. The road trip to Fresno State next
week won't be a picnic, but if the Cats
can get a win over the Tigers, they
won't need a plane to fly to face the
Bulldogs.
Why
Missouri
might win: The Kansas State
secondary has given up 17 touchdown
passes in the last six games and is
coming off a 519-yard bombing by
Nebraska. Meanwhile, Missouri's passing
game has hit its groove with 781 yards
and eight touchdowns in the last two
games to go along with a solid running
game. This is a finely tuned Tiger
offensive machine that should be able to
overcome any adversity by finding
something that works. If KSU takes away
the run, Daniel will throw deep. Take
away the long ball and Daniel will work
underneath to his tight ends. Texas A&M
actually put up more of a fight last
week than than the 40-26 final score
might indicate, and that might be just
enough of a tight test to get Mizzou
through any issues this week.
Why Kansas State might win: It's
going to take something special and out
of the ordinary for Kansas State to win,
and that might come from the punt return
game. Led by Deon Murphy, KSU leads the
nation in punt returns averaging 22.06
yards per try, while the Missouri
punting game has been abysmal. Murphy,
at the very least, should give the
Wildcats excellent field position and
could turn the momentum of the game with
a score. The pressure is completely and
totally on the Tigers. Kansas State will
come out fired up on Senior Day and
should play loose. Last year, a far
superior Missouri team got shocked by a
miserable Iowa State squad in its final
home game of the year.
Who to watch:
Kansas State's Josh Freeman and Jordy
Nelson. Lost in last two defeats has
been the solid play from Freeman, who
has bombed away for 200 yards or more in
every game but one, the win over Texas.
The Wildcats were able to upset the
Longhorns thanks to Nelson, who caught
12 passes for 116 yards and returned a
punt for a score. Nelson is a shoo-in
for All-America honors with 99 catches
for 1,347 yards and nine touchdowns, and
he should be in for a huge game against
a suspect Tiger secondary that gave up
247 yards to the ground-oriented Texas
A&M. These two need to go
ballistic to pull off the upset.
What will happen: Freeman
will bomb away for 400 yards and Nelson
will have a jaw-dropping day, but it
won't be enough. Daniel and the Tiger
offense will get on a second half roll
that KSU won't be able to stop.
CFN Prediction:
Missouri 45
... Kansas State 31
...
Line: Missouri -8
Must See
Rating: (5
On
HBO, "Michigan vs. Ohio State:
The Rivalry"
- 1 Writer strike induced
reruns) ... 3
Oklahoma State
(5-5) at Baylor
(3-8)
7:00 PM
Why to watch:
With a huge week of Big 12 games, this
one will get pushed aside even though it
could end up being the most entertaining
of the lot. Both teams desperately need
a win, with Oklahoma State trying to get
bowl eligible with a sixth win before
facing Oklahoma. The Cowboys have lost
two straight in high-profile fashion,
getting their doors blown off by Texas
before losing on national television to
Kansas. As rough as those were, a loss
to Baylor would be worse considering OSU
is 10-1 in the series since the
formation of the Big 12. For the Beats,
an 0-7 conference record and a
seven-game losing streak has all but
doomed the Guy Morriss era. In what
should be his final game as the BU head
coach, his team should come out with
guns blazing in a shootout.
Why Oklahoma State
might win: Even when the Baylor
attack is working, it keeps shooting
itself in the foot with turnovers. The
offense has only gone one game with
fewer than two giveaways, while the
defense hasn't done nearly enough to
force any big plays of its own. The
passing game gets some decent yards here
and there, but not enough of them to
overcome a defense that hasn't been
close to slowing down anyone's passing
game. How ugly have things been for the
Bears? They haven't been closer than 20
points in any Big 12 game getting
outscored by an average of 44 to 14.
Why Baylor might win: Does OSU
have anything left in the tank? After
emotional losses to Texas and Kansas,
and with all mental focus likely on
Oklahoma next week, Baylor could come up
with just enough of a good game to pull
off the upset. It's not like the Cowboys
have been great on the road this year
with a blowout loss to Georgia, a
stunning blasting at Troy, and a loss to
Texas A&M before obliterating Nebraska
in Lincoln. The Cowboy pass defense is
the worst in the Big 12 made possible by
a lack of a pass rush. Baylor, for all
its problems, has been terrific all year
in pass protection. When given time, QB
Blake Szymanski has been effective.
Who to watch:
The time is now for Oklahoma State
freshman WR Dez Bryant. A superior
talent who got lost a bit in the shuffle
throughout the year, he stepped up last
week when Adarius Bowman went down and
caught eight passes for 155 yards and a
touchdown. With Bowman out for the rest
of the regular season with a knee
injury, it'll be up to Bryant to play an
even bigger role, while Brandon
Pettigrew, a solid number two target
throughout the year, needs to overcome a
rough one-catch day against the Jayhawks.
These two will be the stars of the 2008
OSU passing game, but to get to a bowl
game, they need to blow up now.
What will happen: In a
big-time shootout, the two teams will
combine for well over 1,000 yards of
total offense. Baylor will throw at
will, but it'll be the OSU running game
and balance that'll win out in the
fourth quarter.
CFN Prediction: Oklahoma
State 48 ...
Baylor 34
...
Line: Oklahoma State -15
Must See
Rating: (5
On
HBO, "Michigan vs. Ohio State:
The Rivalry"
- 1 Writer strike induced
reruns) ... 2 |