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East Carolina
(1-2) at West Virginia (3-0)
12:00
PM ESPN
Why to watch:
Now that Louisville has suffered its
first loss, West Virginia is left to
carry the Big East banner in terms of a
national championship run. Sure,
Rutgers and South Florida are ranked and
unbeaten, but the Mountaineers are now
the only team in the league with a
realistic shot at making it to New
Orleans if they can keep dominating like
they have over the first few games. In
last Thursday’s win at Maryland, Rich
Rodriguez learned a couple of important
things about his program: True freshman
RB Noel Devine has the jets to
contribute to the offense right now.
And the defense, a question mark
throughout the off-season, is showing
signs of making progress, particularly
on third down. East Carolina is coming
down from a damaging 28-21 loss to
Southern Miss that already has it in a
hole in the Eastern Division of
Conference USA. Still searching for
that breakthrough win under Skip Holtz,
this week’s trip to Morgantown presents
an opportunity to make a bold statement
while averting a 1-3 start with a tough
trip to Houston in the on-deck circle.
Why East Carolina might win: If
you’re going to have a prayer of
upsetting West Virginia in Morgantown,
you’d better be good at stopping the
run, something the Pirates are excelling
at this season. Behind a sturdy
defensive line, and despite opening
without any cupcakes on the schedule,
East Carolina leads Conference USA in
rush defense, allowing just 86 yards a
game. While it won’t stop the West
Virginia attack, it’ll slow it down
enough to keep the game competitive and
get the ball back over to Patrick
Pinkney, ECU’s rapidly improving
quarterback.
Why West Virginia might win: One
way to keep the ball out of the hands of
West Virginia’s myriad of offensive
playmakers is to establish a
time-consuming ground game, but that’s
just not going to happen with East
Carolina. The Pirates are 96th
nationally on the ground, averaging less
than three yards a carry, and things
aren’t going to get any easier against a
Mountaineer front that’s really
attacking the ball this month. Short
ECU drives mean more touches for Patrick
White, Steve Slaton, Owen Schmitt, and
Devine.
Who to watch: West Virginia’s
Mortty Ivy and Marc Magro weren’t even
guaranteed starting jobs when camp
started in August, but the two outside
linebackers have been instrumental in
the recent success of the Mountaineer
defense. Through three games, the pair
has combined for seven tackles for loss
and six sacks, creating pocket pressure
that hasn’t always been there from the
defensive line.
What will happen: With so much
attention being given to the Mountaineer
running attack, this is one of those
games that White will show off his
underrated arm, flipping a couple of
touchdown passes against a porous pass
defense. Unlike last year’s game, West
Virginia will jump out early and never
be challenged by East Carolina.
CFN Prediction:
West Virginia
44 ... East Carolina 16 ... Line:
West Virginia -24
Must See Rating: (5 Curb Your
Enthusiasm - 1 Kid Nation)
... 2
Marshall (0-3) at Cincinnati (3-0)
7:30
PM GamePlan
Why to watch:
After three lopsided wins, including
last weekend’s over Miami (OH), just how
good is this Cincinnati team? The
Bearcats have taken six consecutive
games dating back to last season, their
longest streak since 1954, winning with
defense, offense, special teams, and
with or without their starting
quarterback. Even without Ben Mauk on
Saturday, Cincy slammed the RedHawks
47-10 to inch a little closer to the Top
25. So just how good is Brian Kelly’s
squad? With upcoming games versus
Marshall and San Diego State, we may not
really know until Oct. 6 when Kelly’s
‘Cats travel to Rutgers. The Herd was
supposed to lose to Miami and West
Virginia in the first two weeks, and
even earned praise for staying with the
Mountaineers for three quarters. Losing
last week by 13 to I-AA New Hampshire,
however, was a sign that the bottom
could be about to fall out in
Huntington. Although injuries have
certainly been a factor, Marshall needs
to start overcoming as it begins a
three-game road trip.
Why Marshall might win: Even with
a badly injured turf toe, Herd
quarterback Bernard Morris showed last
week that Marshall is never out of game
as long as he has time to throw. In
just over two quarters of work against
New Hampshire, the senior went 31-of-42
for 417 yards and three touchdown
passes, nearly rallying his team back
from a huge deficit. Without help from
the defense, Cincinnati’s offense hasn’t
been so otherworldly that it isn’t
susceptible to another big game from
Morris.
Why Cincinnati might win: The
Bearcat defense has been sensational so
far in 2007, allowing just 13 points the
last two weeks to Oregon State and Miami
University, and leading the nation in
turnover margin. The Mike Mickens-led
pass defense has picked off 11 passes
while surrendering just a single
touchdown pass all year. If Marshall’s
102nd-ranked running game
can’t keep Cincy honest, the pressure
for Morris to make things happen against
this unit will be insurmountable. The
Herd defense has allowed 48 points in
each of the last two games, which Kelly
will target whether Mauk or Dustin
Grutza is taking snaps.
Who to watch: Marshall would be
well-advised to know where No. 1,
Marshwan Gilyard, is at all times on
Saturday night. The sophomore wide
receiver/special teams ace has 11
catches for a team-high 158 yards and
two touchdowns, and has blocked a punt
in each of the last two games.
What will happen: Physically and
emotionally, Marshall is really hurting
these days after losing to New Hampshire
and losing a bunch of starters to
injury. Cincinnati will take advantage
with a balanced offense and a stifling
defense to pick up win No. 4 in a walk.
CFN Prediction:
Cincinnati
38 ... Marshall
16 ... Line:
Cincinnati -23
Must See Rating: (5 Curb Your
Enthusiasm - 1 Kid Nation)
... 2
Memphis (2-1) at UCF (2-1)
3:30 PM
Why to watch:
After upsetting NC State and nearly
delivering a stunner against Texas last
week, UCF needs to go out and prove it
can also get pumped up to fry smaller
fish, such as this week against
Memphis. The Knights have been an early
season surprise, shaking off a 4-8
season to play as if they plan to
contend all year for a Conference USA
title. To get there, UCF is going to
need more consistency from QB Kyle
Israel, who hasn’t been able to
recapture the momentum he had last
November. Memphis has also showed signs
of snapping out of its 2006 funk, losing
by two points to Ole Miss in the opener
and dumping Jacksonville State last
Saturday. It’s going to be a long climb
back to contention for the Tigers, but
after going 1-7 in the league last year,
a road win to begin conference play
would be an ideal place to start.
Why Memphis might win: With RB
Joseph Doss expected back from a knee
sprain and QB Martin Hankins averaging
over 300 yards a game, the Tigers have
the ingredients to achieve offensive
balance. UCF, on the contrary, does
not. Israel is completing 40% of his
passes, and the Knights are 117th
nationally in passing offense. Memphis
will also mix things up with redshirt
freshman QB Matt Malouf, a scrambling
threat who’s gone for 54 yards and two
touchdowns on three carries when running
out of the offense’s option package.
Why UCF might win: The way Kevin
Smith is running the ball this year, the
Knights may not have to get much from
the passing game to be successful. The
junior leads the country in rushing
after two games, averaging 183 yards and
scoring four times against a pair of BCS
defenses. The same Memphis defense that
gave up more than five yards a carry to
Jacksonville State last Saturday won’t
be able to corral one of the best kept
secrets in Conference USA.
Who to watch: CB Joe Burnett is
one of the true playmakers on the UCF
defense. A third-year starter that’ll
take risks in the secondary, he has two
picks this year and eight in just 26
career games in Orlando. While Burnett
won’t have to contend with Memphis’ best
receiver, injured Duke Calhoun, he’ll
still get tested downfield by Carlos
Singleton and Maurice Jones, who are
both very big and very physical in
traffic.
What will happen: It might take a
while for UCF to get motivated after
coming down from the electricity of
opening a new stadium and almost
authoring a landmark win last weekend.
Smith will be the spark, rushing for 150
yards, and cashing in on the inevitable
picks that Hankins will throw.
CFN Prediction:
UCF 31 …
Memphis 23...
Line: UCF -7
Must See Rating: (5 Curb Your
Enthusiasm - 1 Kid Nation)
... 2
Rice
(0-3) at Texas
(3-0)
7:00 PM
Why to watch:
No. 6 Texas has either trailed or been
ahead by only one score in the second
half of wins over Arkansas State, TCU,
and UCF. Are the ‘Horns bored by their
competition or just grossly overrated?
Whatever the case, it needs to be
addressed this week against old
Southwest Conference rival Rice because
the start of the Big 12 schedule is
right around the corner. Of greatest
concern has been the sporadic play of QB
Colt McCoy and a leaky run defense that
was moved off the ball in the opener and
last weekend in Orlando. The Owls
should be so lucky to have Texas’
problems. Since landing a bowl invite
last December, nothing, from the
departure of head coach Todd Graham to
the 0-3 start, has gone right for the
program. Even worse than being winless,
Rice hasn’t even been competitive, and
is saddled with an unacceptable loss to
Nicholls State. While the school began
2006 0-4, a rally to the post-season
this fall doesn’t appear likely.
Why Rice might win: Texas just
hasn’t looked like Texas this month,
misfiring too often on offense, and
allowing too many yards to opposing
backs and quarterbacks. Heck, if
Arkansas State and UCF can keep the
‘Horns from emptying the bench, so can
Rice. The Owl passing game appears to
be getting back on track, putting up 451
yards and a couple of touchdown passes
in its last two games with Big 12
teams. WR Jarett Dillard has begun to
heat up, and should have his best game
of the year versus an unproven Texas
secondary.
Why Texas might win: As bad as
the Rice defense is playing, this is a
perfect chance for McCoy to get right,
and for Texas to work on its depth for a
change. The Owls are 110th
nationally against the pass, allowing
six touchdown passes and over 400 yards
in each of the last two games with Texas
Tech and Baylor. While McCoy recaptures
his freshman form against this hapless
bunch, RB Jamaal Charles will go for at
least 100 yards and at least one score
for the fourth consecutive week.
Who to watch: Having served
three-game suspensions, WR Billy
Pittman, LB Sergio Kindle, and DE Henry
Melton will make their 2007 debuts
Saturday night. Each will play a role
in Texas’ success the rest of the way,
so Mack Brown will do whatever he can on
Saturday to get them in game shape
before Kansas State visits next
weekend.
What will happen: Alright, Texas,
enough is enough. With the tough part
of the schedule almost about to begin,
the Longhorns will finally dispose of an
inferior opponent behind an offensive
barrage that’s been missing this month.
CFN Prediction:
Texas 52 …
Rice 13...
Line: Texas 38.5
Must See Rating: (5 Curb Your
Enthusiasm - 1 Kid Nation)
... 1.5
Conference USA Week
Four Predictions, Part 2
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