Tulsa (3-1) at UTEP (3-2)
9:05 PM
Why to watch:
Conventional wisdom says that Tulsa and
Houston will battle it out this year for
the Conference USA West title. UTEP
head coach Mike Price has never been
conventional. His Miners won a pivotal
shootout at SMU last week, opening the
door for them to join the race with an
upset of the Hurricane this Saturday
night. Still adjusting to rampant
turnover on both sides of the ball, UTEP
is surviving with good special teams
play and a power running game that’s
been light years better than in recent
seasons. Although Tulsa is piling up
points and yards as quickly as any team
in the league this season, it’s allowing
them at an equally frequent clip. Good
for the fans, bad for the coaching
staff. The Hurricane gets Houston at
Skelly Stadium next month, and with a
win on Saturday, will take over sole
possession of first place in the
division. Tackling is optional at both
schools, so buckle up for what should be
an high-octane offensive thrill-ride of
an evening. Why Tulsa might win: The up-tempo
Hurricane offense is averaging 552 yards
and 37 points a game, getting
contributions from both Paul Smith and
the passing attack, and Tarrion Adams
and the running game. Don’t expect a
rebuilt UTEP defense to rain on the
Tulsa firework display. The Miners’ 106th-ranked
defense has allowed 11 touchdown passes
over the last four weeks, bagging just
four sacks all year. Now in his fifth
game in a new system, Smith is going to
have a field day against this group, and
the time needed to locate his second and
third receivers when necessary. Why UTEP might win: Sure, Tulsa
can score, but can it stop anyone? Four
games into the season, it doesn’t appear
likely. Over the last three games, all
at home, the Hurricane has allowed a
mind-blowing 1,650 yards and 139
points. It’d be easy to attribute the
futility to facing BYU and Oklahoma, but
Tulsa couldn’t even stop a bad UAB
attack last week. The Miners will be
able to establish the run with Marcus
Thomas, mixing in short passes from
Trevor Vittatoe, who’s improving every
week. As usual, UTEP will look for ways
to get the ball in the hands of WR Lorne
Sam, a playmaker that’ll also take snaps
behind center. Who to watch: Slowly but surely,
Tulsa has developed a couple of
receivers capable of fitting into an
offense that’s throwing the ball 30-40
times a game. While freshman Trae
Johnson has been the most productive
wideout, catching 14 passes for 291
yards and two scores, junior college
transfer Brennan Marion has become the
team’s long ball hitter. Marion has
caught just seven passes, but they’ve
gone for 318 yards and four scores, so
UTEP better know where No. 4 is at all
times. What will happen: If you fancy
old-school defensive struggles, cover
your eyes. Both schools will get up and
down the field with little resistance;
however, when clutch plays are needed
late in a close game, the senior Smith
will out perform the rising freshman,
Vittatoe. CFN Prediction:
Tulsa 41
… UTEP 35 ...
Line: Tulsa -3.5 Must See Rating: (5 Paris on
Letterman - 1 Singing Bee) ...
2
Conference USA Tuesday, October
2nd
Marshall (0-4) at Memphis
(1-3)
8:00 PM ESPN2 Why to watch:
All of a sudden, a Tuesday night special
between two of Conference USA’s worst
programs takes on a different feel after
Tiger defensive lineman Taylor Bradford
was murdered on Monday, causing the
school to cancel classes for a day.
However, the game will go on. Neither
Marshall nor Memphis has had much to
howl about this year, so a meeting
between them will be an opportunity to
temporarily stop the bleeding, while
pocketing some rare national exposure.
The Tigers somehow blew a 31-6 halftime
lead to Arkansas State in last
Thursday’s make-up game, making this
week’s contest their third in only 11
days. Memphis has won just three of its
last 16 games, which has left head coach
Tommy West with very little job
security. While Marshall has upside
thanks to a couple of solid recruiting
classes from Mark Snyder, you hardly can
tell from September’s results. The Herd
lost its first four games, including a
head-scratcher to New Hampshire, and has
allowed at least 40 points in the last
three games. Expect to see a ton of
first-year players, such as RB Darrius
Marshall and WR Darius Passmore, as
Snyder searches for combinations that
give his program the best opportunity to
win. Why Marshall might win: The Herd
is well-rested. The Tigers, on the
other hand, are gassed because of a
condensed schedule that has them playing
a third game in under two weeks. Save
for its defeat of I-AA Jacksonville
State, Memphis has been awful
defensively, allowing 91 points and
nearly 1,000 yards to UCF and Arkansas
State the last two weeks. A healthy
Marshall QB Bernard Morris is playing up
to his potential this fall, throwing
seven touchdown passes and just one pick
over the last three games. He’ll hook
up often with Passmore and TE Cody
Slate, who have the edge over the Tiger
secondary. The Tigers have the nation’s
worst net punting unit, so Morris & Co.
could be working on a short field all
night. Why Memphis might win: The Tiger
defense has been bad, but the Herd may
actually be worse. Sure, it has played
a tougher schedule, but Marshall is
allowing almost 42 points a game and is
a dreadful 112th nationally
in pass efficiency defense. That’ll
present a big problem versus a Memphis
passing game that has senior slinger
Martin Hankins and an underrated corps
of playmaking receivers. The Herd pass
rush has been virtually non-existent
this year without star DE Albert
McClellan, which means Hankins will have
time to locate second and third
receivers, if necessary. Who to watch: The best player in
the Liberty Bowl Tuesday night will be
Slate, a sophomore with rare
field-stretching ability for a tight
end. The Herd will try to isolate him
all night on a group of Memphis
linebackers that lack the size and speed
to contain him. Slate already has 25
receptions for 321 yards and two scores
in what’s shaping up as a second
straight all-conference season. What will happen: Neither defense
is capable of making stops these days,
so both Hankins and Morris will have
success through the air and approach 300
yards passing. While Marshall has
played a much tougher schedule, Memphis
has simply played too much recently, and
the Bradford tragedy will only make it
that much tougher. It’ll show by the
second half of a close Herd victory. CFN Prediction:
Marshall
33 … Memphis 30
... Line:
Memphis -2.5 Must See Rating: (5 Paris on
Letterman - 1 Singing Bee) ...
1.5
Conference USA Wednesday,
October 3rd
Rice (0-4) at Southern Miss
(2-2)
8:00 PM ESPN2 Why to watch:
Southern Miss took a journey out to
Boise last Thursday determined to prove
it was the nation’s premier mid-major
program of 2007. It returned back to
Hattiesburg with an extra serving of
humble pie after enduring a 38-16
wake-up call at the hands of the
Broncos. The non-conference portion of
the schedule now done until the finale,
the Golden Eagles can turn their
attention to more attainable goals, such
as winning the East Division of
Conference USA. They’ll begin that
quest without starting QB Jeremy Young,
who suffered a high ankle sprain in the
loss, and could be out 2-5 weeks. In
his place steps Stephen Reaves, a senior
with a fair amount of experience, but
just a fraction of Young’s playmaking
ability. Rice exits its only bye week
of the year emotionally and physically
battered, especially on the defensive
side of the ball. Although three of the
Owls’ four losses did come against Big
12 opponents, they weren’t competitive
in any one game, and failed to deliver
in the opener with Nicholls State. Last
year’s team rallied from an 0-4 start to
land a bowl berth, but this year’s
edition doesn’t appear to have the same
magic. Why Rice might win: A trip to
Hattiesburg could remedy an Owl passing
attack that has potential, but has
sputtered through the first one-third of
the year. Southern Miss isn’t getting
much of a push up front, which is
causing problems for a questionable
secondary. In three games with FBS
opponents, the Eagles have allowed six
touchdown passes and 63% of passes to be
completed. Rice QB Chase Clement will
exploit that weakness by hooking up with
Jarett Dillard and Toren Dixon, a rising
star in Conference USA. Why Southern Miss might win:
Particularly with a new quarterback
behind center, the Eagles will revert to
their old bread-and-butter, the running
game. Damion Fletcher and Tory Harrison
will get no resistance from a Rice front
that’s undersized and overmatched. The
Owls have allowed 159 points over the
last three games, and are loaded with
inexperienced underclassmen throughout
the two-deep. When Reaves does throw,
it’ll be easy pickings against a defense
that’s given up 16 touchdown passes and
picked off one pass in four games. Who to watch: Looking for more
consistency and muscle along the
offensive line, Jeff Bower is turning
left tackle over to Calvin Wilson, a
6-6, 352-pound transfer from Mississippi
State. A local kid that was granted an
NCAA exemption to play right away, he
should dominate the Rice interior, while
creating daylight for Fletcher to make
long gains. Only a sophomore, Wilson
could become the cornerstone of the
Eagle line for the next couple of years. What will happen: Hungry for a
win after getting embarrassed on
national TV last week, Southern Miss
will toy with the Rice defense, getting
150 yards on the ground from Fletcher
and touchdown hook-ups from Reaves to
Chris Johnson and Shawn Nelson. CFN Prediction:
Southern Miss
41 ...
Rice 16... Line: Southern Miss
-20 Must See Rating: (5 Paris on
Letterman - 1 Singing Bee) ...
1.5
Conference USA Saturday, October
6th
UCF (3-1) at East Carolina
(2-3)
7:30 PM CSTV
Why to watch:
Three teams are in the hunt this year
for the Conference USA East crown.
These are two of them. While UCF has
some margin for error, East Carolina
does not thanks to a loss earlier in the
year to Southern Miss, the third team in
the mix. The Pirates delivered a
gut-check win last weekend, going on the
road to outlast Houston, 37-35, with a
little help from the offense and Cougar
kicker T.J. Lawrence. Battle-tested
from a hellacious September schedule,
they’ll be right where they need to be
at the mid-point of the season with
another upset win. UCF has been the
surprise of the conference through the
first month, sporting the league’s best
offense and going toe-to-toe with Texas
three weeks ago in a defining
performance. The Knights’ fast start
has been fueled by junior RB Kevin
Smith, who leads the nation in rushing
and has already scored 10 times. A UCF
win Saturday night could set up a
winner-take-all scenario in the East
when the Knights travel to Hattiesburg
on Oct. 28. Why UCF might win: Smith has been
playing at a different level this
season, carrying the Knight offense and
wearing out opposing defenses for 178
yards rushing a game. A physical back,
he’ll continue to control the clock and
move the chains against a banged up East
Carolina front seven. UCF sports not
only the league’s top-ranked offense,
but its highest-rated defense as well.
The Knights have been especially frugal
in pass defense, which will present a
big challenge to a 104th-ranked
Pirate offense that’s still bouncing
between Patrick Pinkney and Rob Kass at
quarterback. Why East Carolina might win:
Numbers lie, especially in September.
Yeah, the Pirates are 72nd
nationally in run defense, but that
includes a beat-down at the hands of
West Virginia, which runs circles on
most of its opponents. Sans that
Mountaineer game, East Carolina has
given up just 100 yards a game on the
ground, a figure that would easily rank
it atop Conference USA. There are still
enough healthy bodies in Greenville to
contain Smith, forcing ineffective QB
Kyle Israel to do more than just hand
the ball off. The Knights lack of
balance or a scary passing game will
allow the Pirates to overcommit to
stopping the run without paying the
consequences. Who to watch: Israel holds the
key to whether UCF is going to be a
pretender or a bona fide threat to win a
conference championship in 2007. He has
to start giving opposing defenses a
reason not to stack the line order to
gang up on Smith, the Knights’ catalyst
on offense. If the Knights continue to
wallow at the bottom of the league in
passing, George O’Leary won’t hesitate
to give the ball to Michael Greco, a
good all-around athlete with intriguing
upside potential. What will happen: No stranger to
games decided by a touchdown or less,
East Carolina will get caught in another
tight one that isn’t decided until the
final quarter. UCF will get a late pick
from its seasoned secondary to seal a
second critical win of the year in the
Tar Heel State. CFN Prediction:
UCF 28 …
East Carolina 24
... Line:
UCF -3.5 Must See Rating: (5 Paris on
Letterman - 1 Singing Bee) ...
2.5
