Houston (4-3) at UTEP (4-3)
9:05 EST Why to watch: If you can catch
just one game between unranked teams
this weekend, consider this probable
shootout between two of Conference USA’s
most explosive offenses. The lead in
the West division will be at stake when
UTEP hosts Houston at the Sun Bowl for
the fifth meeting between the schools.
The Miners are a dramatic finish waiting
to happen, playing in three consecutive
high-scoring nail-biters, two of which
needed overtime. In a season that was
supposed to be marked by painful
transition and inconsistency, UTEP has
rebuilt on the fly to become the
surprise of the league through seven
games. Houston, too, was expected to
dip this year, but has parlayed an
abundance of offensive speed into
another run for a league championship.
The Cougars are coming off their most
complete effort of the year, a 49-10
thumping of UAB that educed rare
contributions from the defensive side of
the ball. If the D plays half as good
as it did a week ago, they may not lose
another game in 2007. Why Houston might win: With the
non-conference portion of the schedule
in the rear view mirror, the Cougars are
purring on offense, scoring 105 points
and amassing a ridiculous 1,288 total
yards over the last two weeks. UTEP’s
114th-ranked defense, which
has allowed at least 45 points in each
of the last three games, couldn’t stop
these guys with a man advantage. Art
Briles has used a two-quarterback system
masterfully this year, inserting Case
Keenum and Blake Joseph at the right
times while somehow keeping both
motivated. The quarterbacks will
distribute the ball to RB Anthony
Alridge, and WRs Donnie Avery and Jeron
Harvey, who’ll blow past the Miner
defenders in the open field. UTEP has
allowed 12 touchdown passes over the
last four games, a scary trend with a
Briles-led team coming to town. Why UTEP might win: Sure, the
Miners defense is awful, but the
hard-charging offense is prolific enough
to compensate, averaging almost 50
points a game over the last month.
Freshman QB Trevor Vittatoe has grown up
quickly as Jordan Palmer’s successor,
tossing 10 touchdown passes in the last
four games, while helping turn Jeff
Moturi into one of the league’s most
dangerous receivers. Add in the tough
running of Marcus Thomas and the
versatility of UTEP’s own slash, Lorne
Sam, and Mike Price has the ingredients
of his best offense since he was in the
Pac-10. The Miners will remain hot
against a Houston defense that doesn’t
create many sacks or turnovers, and was
questionable before last week’s game
with 2-5 UAB. Who to watch: If Houston is going
to take control of the West, it’s
imperative that Keenum and Joseph
protect the football, an issue for both
this season, especially Keenum.
Although the UTEP defense has been soft
all year, it has been hawkish of late,
picking off 11 balls over the last four
games. Keenum and Joseph must pay
particular attention to Quintin Demps,
who has more career interceptions than
any current player, and is as skilled a
defensive back playing in Conference
USA. What will happen: Both teams’
punters might as well stay at the hotel
on Saturday night. Neither will be used
very much. The scoring will come fast,
furious, and from every spot on the
field. Houston, which is starting to
gel as a team, will outlast UTEP in one
of the more entertaining games of the
weekend. CFN Prediction:
Houston
44 … UTEP 36...
Line: Houston -3.5 Must See Rating: (5 America's
Most Smartest Model - 1 Marie Osmond on
DTWS) ... 2.5
Conference USA Saturday, October
27th
UAB (2-5) at East Carolina (4-4)
3:00 EST Why to watch: East
Carolina’s attempt to branch
outside Conference USA with
success was a complete flop,
losing badly to 1-5 NC State
last Saturday to snap a
three-game winning streak. It
was a bitter pill for the
program to swallow, but at least
the 34-20 loss has no impact on
the league race, which the
Pirates will resume contending
for against a pesky UAB.
They’re currently tied atop the
East Division with Southern
Miss, a team they lost to back
in September. UAB’s run of
moral victories and close calls
ended with last week’s 49-10
loss to Houston that was every
bit as one-sided as the score
indicates. The Blazers are
building for 2008 under rookie
head coach Neil Calloway, taking
their lumps today in the hopes
that it’ll pay off with a
brighter tomorrow in Birmingham. Why UAB might win: The
East Carolina defense is in a
state of shambles, showing no
ability to stop the pass or keep
the opposition out of the end
zone. Over the last seven
weeks, the Pirates have allowed
13 touchdown passes and an
average of 37 points a game.
Blazer QB Sam Hunt will abandon
the running game, opting to pick
apart that pass defense by
connecting with top receivers
Frantrell Forrest and Joseph
Webb, who’ve played well
lately. Hunt is a quality
quarterback that can make plays
on the ground or through the air
when given time to see the
field. Why East Carolina might win:
UAB’s inability to stop the run
or contain speed was highlighted
again last weekend in the loss
to Houston. Things won’t get
any better against mercurial
Pirate RB Chris Johnson, who’s
as fast as any Cougar, and will
run circles around the Blazers
as a runner, a pass catcher, and
a kickoff returner. UAB’s 104th-ranked
running game won’t be nearly as
productive against a stout East
Carolina front seven, forcing
Hunt to go it alone on the
offensive side of the ball. Who to watch: After
playing so well in the win over
UCF three weeks ago, East
Carolina QB Rob Kass has
regressed, throwing just two
touchdowns to four picks, while
failing to stretch defenses with
his big arm. If the Pirates are
going to win the East this
season, it’s incumbent upon the
sophomore to improve his
consistency and decision making
beginning with this week’s game
in Greenville. What will happen: While
UAB will continue to fight and
compete, it just doesn’t have
the depth to overcome some of
the more polished teams in
Conference USA. It might take a
while for East Carolina to shake
off the despair from last week’s
loss before Johnson takes over
with his all-purpose heroics.
CFN Prediction:
East
Carolina 33 … UAB 17
... Line: East Carolina
-14.5 Must See Rating: (5
America's Most Smartest Model -
1 Marie Osmond on DTWS) ...
2
SMU (1-6) at Tulsa (4-3)
3:00 EST Why to watch: Tulsa’s
feeble defense finally caught up
with it in last week’s 44-23
loss to UCF, dropping the
program to third place in
Conference USA behind Houston
and UTEP. If the Hurricane has
any hope of representing the
division in the title game, it
must win its final four
conference games, beginning with
this Saturday’s visit from SMU.
Even the high-octane offense
sputtered in Orlando, a
troubling sign for a team that
lived off QB Paul Smith’s right
arm over the first two months.
The end of the year can’t come
soon enough for the Mustangs,
which reached rock bottom with
last week’s 41-34 overtime loss
to Tulane in Dallas. A season
that began with so much hope has
unraveled with five straight
losses and an end to the pursuit
of a bowl game. With five games
remaining, the only suspense
surrounding the SMU football
team is whether or not head
coach Phil Bennett can survive
this mess, and return to the
Hilltop for a seventh season. Why SMU might win: As
long as the Tulsa defense
continues getting gashed on a
weekly basis, it’ll be
vulnerable regardless of who’s
on the other sideline. The
Hurricane has not held an
opponent below 400 yards since
the opener, and has slipped to
116th nationally in
points allowed. The unit is
abysmal in all phases, which
bodes well for a Mustang attack
that can move the ball on the
ground with James Mapps and
DeMyron Martin, or through the
air with Justin Willis. When
SMU has faced weak defenses,
such as UTEP and Tulane, it’s
had no problem piling up the
yards and points. Why Tulsa might win: As
long as the SMU defense
continues getting gashed on a
weekly basis, it’ll have little
chance of winning for the second
time this year. The Hurricane
defense is hideous, but the
Mustangs D isn’t a whole lot
better, allowing 37 points and
489 yards a game. In fact, in
last week’s loss to Tulane, it
paved the way for Green Wave RB
Matt Forte to rush for a
Conference USA-record 342 yards
and four scores on 38 carries.
The Tulsa offense will rebound
in a hurry, moving up and down
the field on Smith’s passes and
the running of Tarrion Adams. Who to watch: As bad as
the rebuilt SMU front four has
been over the last five games,
Todd Graham might want to get
Adams 30 carries this week,
which he’s capable of parlaying
into at least 150 yards. If
nothing else, a more
ball-control approach to the
offensive gameplan might be one
way to keep that Tulsa defense
off the field. What will happen: Tulsa
will vent some frustration from
last week’s loss by posting some
gaudy offensive numbers at SMU’s
expense. The Hurricane,
however, hasn’t won a game by
more than eight points since
Week 1, a trend that’ll continue
Saturday afternoon. CFN Prediction: Tulsa 41
… SMU
28 ...
Line: Tulsa -14 Must See Rating: (5
America's Most Smartest Model -
1 Marie Osmond on DTWS) ...
2
