Conference USA
East
UAB
|
UCF
|
East Carolina
|
Marshall
|
Memphis
|
Southern Miss
West
Houston
|
Rice
|
SMU
|
Tulane
|
Tulsa
|
UTEP
CUSA Fearless Predictions
Sept. 1 | Sept.
8 |
Sept. 15 | Sept.
22 |
Sept. 29
Oct. 6 | Oct.
13 |
Oct. 20 | Oct.
27 |
Nov. 3 | Nov.
10 |
Nov. 17 |
Nov.
24
How are the picks so far? SU:
72-25 ... ATS:
43-45-1
UCF (9-3) vs. Tulsa (9-3)
Dec. 1,
12:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Tulsa has its sights set on a second Conference USA championship in
the last three years. To get there, it must first get through UCF,
a program that whacked the Hurricane, 44-23, during the regular
season.
 |
|
National
Rankings |
|
UCF |
Tulsa |
|
Total Offense |
|
33rd 425.67 ypg |
1st 548.58 ypg |
|
Total Defense |
|
53rd 371.75 ypg |
111th 471.75 ypg |
|
Scoring Offense |
|
13th 37.92 ppg |
9th 40.67 ppg |
|
Scoring Defense |
|
65th 28.08 ppg |
102nd 34.67 ppg |
|
Run Offense |
|
10th 237.33 ypg |
35th 179.25 ypg |
|
Run Defense |
|
46th 139.33 ypg |
90th 186.58 ypg |
|
Pass Offense |
|
98th 188.33 ypg |
3rd 369.33 ypg |
|
Pass Defense |
|
68th 232.42 ypg |
111th 285.17 ypg |
|
Turnover Margin |
|
47th 0.17 |
101st -0.67 |
|
UCF
at
NC State W 25-23
Texas L 35-32
Memphis
W 56-20
UL Laf
W 37-19
at ECU
L 52-38
at
S Florida L 64-12
Tulsa
W 44-23
at
So Miss W 34-17
Marshall W 47-13
at UAB
W 45-31
at SMU W 49-20
UTEP
W 36-20 |
Tulsa
at UL Mon
W 35-17
BYU
W 55-47
Oklahoma L 62-21
UAB W 38-30
at UTEP
L 48-47
Marshall
W 38-31
at UCF L 44-23
SMU
W 29-23
at Tulane
W 49-25
Houston
W 56-7
at Army
W 49-39
at Rice
W 48-43 |
|
Position
Ratings
relative to each
other |
|
CF |
5
highest
1 lowest |
T |
|
3.5 |
Quarterbacks |
5 |
|
5 |
RBs |
3 |
|
3 |
Receivers |
4 |
|
4 |
O
Line |
3 |
|
4 |
D
Line |
3.5 |
|
4 |
Linebackers |
3.5 |
|
4.5 |
Secondary |
2 |
|
3.5 |
Spec
Teams |
3.5 |
|
4 |
Coaching |
3.5 |
|
By winning an East Division that was earmarked for Southern Miss in
the preseason, UCF has already exceeded expectations, moving to
within a win of the school’s first-ever conference championship.
Ironically, it was against Tulsa that the Knights’ year really took
off, snapping an ugly two-game skid and beginning a torrid stretch
of six wins to close out the regular season. The catalyst has been
RB Kevin Smith, who leads the country in rushing and scoring,
steadily climbing the single-season charts for most yards on the
ground in NCAA history.
For all the pub Smith gets, the bigger story in Orlando may be the
defense, which has completely turned things around since yielding
116 points in back-to-back implosions versus East Carolina and South
Florida. Fueled by the push up front of linemen Leger Douzable and
Bruce Miller, and the coverage skills of corners Joe Burnett and
Johnell Neal, UCF leads the league in sacks and interceptions.
They’ll need more of both to slow down the high-powered Tulsa
passing game.
UCF has a top-tier head coach, a future NFL back, and a brand new
stadium, Bright House Networks, that’ll be on display Saturday
afternoon. A rising star in the FBS, the Knights are one win from a
conference championship and a Liberty Bowl berth, the next steps in
the evolution of a program that’s only been around for a little more
than a decade.
Although Tulsa had high hopes heading into the season, it really
didn’t know what to expect from its team. The coaching staff was
new, both lines had to be rebuilt, and the offense was going from a
more traditional pro-style attack to Gus Malzahn’s hurry-up,
no-huddle system. The one constant? QB Paul Smith, the face of the
Hurricane’s success since 2005, and easily the team’s most valuable
player. While not a tailor-made fit for the offense, he’s been the
program’s savior this fall, accounting for 51 touchdowns, routinely
bailing out a defense that’s been an old gold and royal blue sieve.
UCF may be rolling, but it’s not the only hot team in this game.
Tulsa hasn’t lost since facing the Knights on Oct. 20, reeling off
five in-a-row behind the nation’s No. 1 total offense, including a
56-7 rout of defending champ Houston that’ll go down as one of the
most complete games in school history. The Hurricane may need to
summons up that kind of a total team effort to win this weekend at
Bright House Networks, where the Knights have been fantastic all
year.
Players to watch: One of Tulsa’s biggest concerns entering
the season was whether it would have enough quality receivers to
effectively run Malzahn’s offense. It took a couple of weeks, but
when Smith’s favorite targets emerged, they quickly elevated into
two of the most dangerous deep-ball threats in the league. A pair
of first-year players, true freshman Trae Johnson and JUCO
transfer Brennan Marion, have combined for 93 catches and 21
touchdown receptions, averaging more than 22 yards a grab. UCF is
one of the only opposing secondaries Marion didn’t torch this
season, something the junior is hoping to reverse the second time
around.
UCF’s Smith has had a fantastic season, cranking out 2,164 yards and
25 touchdowns, but the junior would be the first to admit that he’s
gotten plenty of help from an offensive line that features three
All-Conference USA first teamers. Tackles Josh Sitton and
Patrick Brown, and center Kyle Smith have been the unsung
heroes for a Knight offense that averaged 43 points over the second
half of the season. The line has consistently dominated at the
point of attack, opening gaping holes for Smith, while keeping QB
Kyle Israel from having to make plays from his back. Like it
did throughout the year, UCF will enjoy an edge in trenches against
a Tulsa line that has DT Moton Hopkins, and a bunch of
question marks.
Tulsa will win if... Smith doesn’t throw any picks. When he
threw no more than one interception in a game this season, the
Hurricane was 7-0. In the five games he was picked at least twice,
Tulsa was 2-3, struggling to even beat UAB and SMU. Even for Smith,
playing a mistake-free game won’t be easy against a ball-hawking and
athletic UCF back seven that’s taken a whopping 17 passes the other
way during the six-game winning streak.
UCF will win if...
Smith continues to run downhill. The Knights best defense for
stopping Tulsa will be a running game that can control the tempo of
a game, and wear out most defenses. Enter Smith, who’s been a
locomotive since the opener at NC State, tearing through defenses
that are far better than the one he’ll line up against this
weekend. The added bonus of 24K’s presence is that it opens up the
field for Israel, who’ll play-action to death a leaky Tulsa
secondary.
What will happen: If defense and a strong running game
still win championships, UCF will be popping the bubbly Saturday
afternoon. In the battle of the Smiths, Kevin will outplay Paul,
rumbling for 175 yards and three scores in a coming-out performance
for both he and the Knight program.
Line:
UCF -7 ... CFN Prediction: UCF 41 ... Tulsa 31
This year's first meeting
Oct. 20
UCF 44 ... Tulsa 23
Kevin Smith ran for scores from 13, 15, four and 44 yards out
as UCF cruised comfortably to the win after the second quarter.
Tulsa took a 14-10 lead early on thanks to two of Paul Smith's three
touchdown passes, but the Golden Knight defense took over just as
Kevin Smith started to heat up. The Golden Hurricane only gained 379
yards of total offense and got down 41-17 before getting back on the
board with a nine-yard Cameron Clemons catch.
Player of the
game:
UCF RB Kevin
Smith ran 33 times for 170 yards an three touchdowns
Stat Leaders: UCF - Passing: Kyle Israel,
21-29, 224 yds,1 TD
Rushing: Kevin Smith, 33-170, 3 TD. Receiving: Sergio
Joachim, 9-98
Tulsa - Passing: Paul Smith, 34-56, 316 yds, 3
TD, 4 INT
Rushing: Tarrion Adams, 10-47. Receiving: Dion Toliver,
8-56
Whoopty doo. What does it all mean, Basil? ... The
defense isn't getting any better. UCF's Kevin Smith is going to run
on everyone, but for the Golden Hurricane to struggle so much
against Kyle Israel and the passing game shows just how bad things
are. If the offense isn't humming, the results will be disastrous.
Winning out is a must to have any hopes of navigating through the
traffic and win the West, and to do that, the D has to come up with
at least one stop at some point. Just one.
2006
Conference USA Championship
Houston 34 ... Southern Miss 20
Houston scored 14 points in the second half on a 46-yard Kevin
Kolb touchdown run and a 33-yard pass to Biren Ealy to pull away for good and
win the Conference USA title. Southern Miss couldn't get the offense moving in
the second half managing only a 31-yard Darren McCaleb field goal after rolling
in the first half. Jeremy Young threw an eight-yard touchdown pass to Chris
Johnson and ran for an eight-yard score. Jackie Battle and Vincent Marshall each
ran for first half scores.
Player of the
game ... Houston
QB Kevin Kolb completed 19 of 31 passes for 258 yards and two touchdowns and ran
five times for 37 yards and a touchdown
Stat Leaders: Houston - Passing: Kevin Kolb, 19-31, 258 yds,
2 TD
Rushing: Kevin Kolb, 5-37, 1 TD Receiving: Vincent Marshall,
8-100
Southern Miss - Passing: Jeremy Young, 17-32, 186 yds, 1 TD
Rushing: Damion Fletcher, 15-90 Receiving:
Ed Morgan, 4-49