Independent Fearless Predictions, Sept. 8

Previews and Predictions for the Week 2 Independent Games.

Independents
Army | Navy | Notre Dame

MAC Fearless Predictions Sept. 1

How are the picks so far? SU: 3-0 ... ATS: 2-1

Independent Game of the Week

Notre Dame (0-1) at Penn State (1-0)  6:00 PM ESPN
Why to Watch: Maybe Georgia Tech is really, really good. Notre Dame came up with one of its worst opening day performances in school history with a 33-3 loss to Georgia Tech. Nothing worked. There was no running game (netting -8 yards), little in the way of a passing attack (130 yards), and no run defense (allowing 265 yards). With Michigan (and yes, Michigan is actually good), a resurgent Michigan State, a high-octane Purdue, a road trip to UCLA, Boston College, and USC coming up, the Irish have to start making improvements right now. Good luck with that against a Penn State defense that appears to be as nasty as any in the Big Ten. The Nittany Lions throttled FIU 59-0 to start the season and can be 3-0, for all intents and purposes, (Buffalo is coming to town next week) by keeping the Irish slide going. Going back to last year, Notre Dame has gotten bombed 114 to 41 over a three game losing streak. 
Why Notre Dame Might Win: Penn State doesn't really have a running game. Yeah, yeah, it cranked out 236 yards and five touchdowns against FIU, but that was FIU. You could've run for 100 yards on that D if you got the ball 25 times. The Nittany Lion offensive line is good, but it's not as good as Georgia Tech's, and there's no Tashard Choice in the backfield to pound away. Austin Scott averaged a mere 4.2 yards per carry, while Rodney Kinlaw and Evan Royster aren't going to run for more than eight yards a crack again.
Why Penn State Might Win: This is a far, far cry from the Notre Dame offense with Brady Quinn, Jeff Samardzija and Darius Walker. The Irish survived last year because Quinn was able to make quick reads and smart decisions despite getting popped every other play. The Irish quarterbacks aren't as good (at least not yet), and there's no talent at running back whatsoever to take the pressure off. Don't totally blame the skill players for the collapse against Tech; no one had time to operate. The offensive line is still a major problem, while Penn State's linebacking corps should be able to get into the backfield whenever it wants to.
Who to Watch: O.K. hotshot, the team is yours. Hyped up freshman quarterback Jimmy Clausen will get the start for the Irish after the game of musical quarterbacks failed miserably against the Yellow Jackets. Clausen completed four of six passes for 34 yards and didn't move the offense at all, but it's going to be sink-or-swim for the franchise passer as long as he holds up. To have any success, he needs help from a running back. Any running back. The leading rusher last week was quarterback Demetrius Jones with just 28 yards. Armando Allen ran for 25 and James Aldridge ran for 19. Trying to establish a ground game against the Penn State linebacking corps isn't going to be easy.
What Will Happen: Penn State got throttled 41-17 by the Irish last year. Considering Penn State is ultra-motivated to get revenge for the blowout, the Irish might be lucky if the score isn't reversed.
CFN Prediction: Penn State 38 ... Notre Dame 17 ... Line:  Penn State -14.5
Must See Rating: (5 Mad Men - 1 Chelsea Lately) ... 3
Final Score: 

Independents Friday, September 7

Navy (1-0) at Rutgers (1-0) 7:00 p.m. ESPN
Why to watch: After easily disposing of Buffalo in front of a rare sellout crowd, No. 16 Rutgers gets a much tougher assignment this Friday against the Naval Academy and its high-octane ground game that’s looking for the program’s first really, really big win under Paul Johnson.  Last Thursday, the Scarlet Knights got a career-high 328 yards passing from Mike Teel and a school-record 248 receiving yards from Tiquan Underwood, harrowing developments for opponents looking to crowd the box to stop RB Ray Rice.  Navy struggled at times with lowly Temple on Friday before pulling away with a tougher-than-expected 30-19 victory in Philadelphia.  While the running game hummed behind QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada, FB Adam Ballard, and RB Shun White, the rebuilt defense displayed lots of room for improvement.  
Why Navy might win: Ballard’s return from last year’s broken leg gives the Middies’ potent running attack a physical presence to go along with the quickness of Kaheaku-Enhada and White.  Rutgers is still adjusting to the loss of four starters from last year’s solid front seven, and will get fed a steady diet of option plays from an offense that runs the system like a finely-tuned machine.   
Why Rutgers might win: Navy’s massive concerns on defense can be masked against Temple, but not in the face of a Rutgers offense that has a Heisman-caliber back and a passing game that looks dramatically improved compared to last season.  The Knights will dominate the Middies at the point of attack, allowing Rice to establish a personal high on the ground for a second straight week and Teel to play catch with Underwood and Kenny Britt.     
Who to watch: Rice.  Even though the junior ran for nearly 1,800 yards in 2006, he might be even better in 2007.  Considered just a step slow a year ago, Rice committed to improving his burst in the off-season, and it showed in the opener against Buffalo.  With big tackles Pedro Sosa and Jeremy Zuttah leading the way, a 200-yard day against an overmatched Navy defense is within reach.  If Teel and Underwood can keep doing that, then Rice becomes even more deadly.
What will happen: As usual, the Middies will get their yards on the ground, but will have absolutely no answers for the improving Rutgers offensive attack.  The Knights will jump out to an early lead, and never get challenged in the second half by Navy.      
CFN Prediction: Rutgers 37 ... Navy 13 ... Line:  Rutgers -14
Must See Rating: (5 Mad Men - 1 Chelsea Lately) ... 2.5
Final Score:   

Independents Saturday, September 8

Rhode Island (0-1) at Army (0-1) 1:00 p.m. ESPN Classic
Why to watch: Both teams are coming off of tough losses with Rhode Island losing 27-23 to Fordham and Army dropping an ugly 22-14 game against Akron. For the Black Knights and new head coach Stan Brock, this is a critical game with road trips to Wake Forest and Boston College to follow. There are few winnable games for this Army team, and it has to take advantage of every one of them.  
Why Rhode Island might win: It's not like Akron has a brick wall of a secondary, yet the Black Knight passing game couldn't get anything going. David Pevoto struggled, and threw a pick six to the Zips' Reggie Corner, and he got dinged up and played most of the fourth quarter with a noticeable limp. This is a veteran Ram team with ten starters returning on offense, and just enough of a defense to keep this close if Pevoto, or Carson Williams, isn't on.
Why Army might win: Rhode Island is hardly an elite BCS team. It runs the spread offense and can run extremely well, but it's limited in the passing attack. Army did a nice job of keeping the Akron runners in check, holding them to 133 yards, and while the Rams will crank out a few big runs, they likely won't be consistent enough to score points throughout. The key for Army will be preventing any sort of a run of two scoring drives or more.
Who to watch: To help out the struggling passing game, Army needs to get its running game going. Wesley McMahand is a productive runner, if not a special one, who was given more of the workload last week with 21 carries for 84 yards and a touchdown against Akron. If he can continue to be a 20-carry type of back, then all the pressure will be off the quarterbacks against the lesser teams like URI.
What will happen: Army will break a seven-game losing streak with a good defensive performance and just enough offense to get by. It won't always be pretty, but a win is a win for a program that could use a big break.
CFN Prediction: Army 37 ... Rhode Island 17 .. Line:  No Line
Must See Rating: (5 Mad Men - 1 Chelsea Lately) ... 1
Final Score: