Independent Fearless Predictions, Sept. 15

Previews and Predictions for the Week 3 Independent Games.

Independents
Army | Navy | Notre Dame

Independent Fearless Predictions Sept. 1 | Sept. 8

How are the picks so far? SU: 6-0 ... ATS: 4-1

Independent Game of the Week

Notre Dame (0-2) at Michigan (0-2)  3:30 PM ABC
Why to Watch: While everyone loves the big game, and Michigan and Notre Dame have played some classics over the years with some of the most important showdowns in college football history, this year's matchup might be the most interesting yet. In the same way you don't want to watch the car crash, but can't seem to turn away, this game has now become a battle to see which all-time great program has fallen the furthest, and which coaching staff is on the hotter seat. These two haven't just lost their first two games of the season, they've done it with flair, and now it's desperation time. That means this game won't just have the pressure of being NOTRE DAME VS. MICHIGAN, it'll be about survival, and trying to jump-start a season. It's still early, and there's still plenty of time for each team to turn things around, but for the loser, its season will have the potential to go from disastrous to a whole other level of bad. Notre Dame has to face six likely bowl-bound teams in a row after the trip to Ann Arbor, and Michigan has to deal with a strong Penn State next week in the Big Ten opener.
Why Notre Dame Might Win: The general sense seems to be that Notre Dame had to play two elite level teams in Georgia Tech and Penn State, who are each likely to be in the top ten at some point, while there was no honor in Michigan's loss to Appalachian State. Oregon, while good, isn't seen as strong as the two opponents the Irish have faced, so while things might have been ugly so far, there's a chance the Yellow Jackets and Nittany Lions will do that do just about everyone. If the Irish offense ever wanted a jump start, this would be the time against a Michigan secondary that's been a step slow and way out of position time and again in the first two games. As long as Jimmy Clausen gets time to throw, he should be able to fire away at will against the nation's second worst pass efficiency defense. Fortunately for Michigan ...
Why Michigan Might Win: ... the Irish offensive line hasn't been remotely close to stopping a pass rush so far, and that's led to the quarterbacks being wildly inefficient. Notre Dame has allowed a whopping 15 sacks in two games, and while the Wolverine defense has been miserable, there's been a little bit of a pass rush. Michigan simply isn't playing up to its talent level, but it actually has the horses in place to turn the production up a few notches and start winning, while Notre Dame just plain stinks right now. Keeping it basic, which is what the Wolverines need to do right now, they should be able to pound the ball as much as they want to against an Irish line that's totally incapable of shedding blocks. The Wolverine offensive line should dominate from the star.
Who to Watch: The future is now for the two storied programs as true freshman quarterbacks Jimmy Clausen and Ryan Mallett square off in what many talent scouts think could be the first of many showdowns that'll span the course of long NFL careers. Thrown to the wolves last week, Clausen wasn't horrible, considering the Nittany Lion defense and revved up crowd. He completed 17 of 32 passes for 144 yards with an interception, and while those numbers aren't going to get him into any hall of fame, they're better than they appear to be considering he rarely got time to throw and didn't have any running game to help the cause. For Mallett, a huge 6-6, 250-pound bomber, all he has to do is hand off to Mike Hart, not throw interceptions, and occasionally air it out to loosen things up. With Chad Henne out for at least three weeks with a knee injury, Mallett will have time to make the job his, just like Henne was able to do as a freshman. If Michigan wins, and if Mallett plays reasonably well, he could be seen as the spark who kicked off a new season.
What Will Happen: Mallett has Mike Hart, Mario Manningham, Adrian Arrington, and Jake Long to help ease him into the job. Clausen has ... Armando Allen? David Grimes? Actually, Allen and Grimes are dangerous speedsters who have the potential to rip apart the Michigan defense, but there is a big production gap between the Michigan skill players and Notre Dame's. Michigan had problems with mobile quarterbacks over the last two weeks, so look for Demetrius Jones to see time here and there. It won't matter. This is the week Michigan gets back on track in an ugly game for both teams.
CFN Prediction: Michigan 31 ... Notre Dame 17 ... Line: Michigan -8.5
Must See Rating: (5 Britney at the VMAs - 1 Big Shots) ... 4

Independents Saturday, September 15

Army (1-1) at Wake Forest (0-2) 3:30 PM
Why to Watch: The Demon Deacons are among the nation’s best 0-2 teams, thanks to a 10-point defeat to BC and last week’s late three-point loss to Nebraska. Despite using backup QB Brett Hodges, Wake put pressure on the highly-regarded Cornhuskers throughout the game and could well have won it if not for a few key late mistakes. Army, meanwhile, is trying to build on a 14-7 overtime win over Rhode Island, the first ever for new coach Stan Brock. Yes, the Rams are an FCS team, but the struggling Cadets won’t be snobs about whom they beat at this point. They’ll try to gather some momentum behind a stingy defense and emerging passing game in what would amount to a program-changing win if they can pull it off.
Why Army Might Win: The Black Knights got a boost from sophomore QB Carson Williams, who took over for injured David Pevoto (ankle) and threw for 148 yards on 12-of-20 passing. Williams may not be as experienced as Pevoto, but he engineered two TD drives and threw the winning TD pass in OT. The Army defense has allowed just 295 total yards a game and piled up five sacks. If the Cadets are going to win, however, they must be more effective on the ground, since they’re only averaging 52 yards a game rushing.
Why Wake Forest Might Win: Simply put, Wake is too good to be 0-3 this year. Last year’s magical season is long gone, but the Deacons still have plenty to play for, and a win Saturday would be a good kick start. QB Brett Hodges has played well in relief of Riley Skinner (shoulder) and runs the Wake offense well, even though he’s still learning on the fly. He has a great weapon at his disposal in wideout Kenneth Moore, who has proven to be tremendously versatile this year, rushing for 116 yards and a TD against Nebraska and catching a whopping 15 passes versus BC. Since Army’s passing offense woke up last week, and Wake has given up 333.0 yards passing per game, the Deacons need to tighten that up.
Who to Watch: Army opened up in a two-tight end formation last week, and it turned out to be a good move, since senior Justin Lawson ended up catching the winning TD pass in overtime. Lawson, who played in all 12 games last year but caught just five throws, already has nine receptions this year. He and Mike Evans give Williams and Pevoto a pair of solid targets.
What Will Happen: The Deacon attack is too savvy and versatile for the Cadets, and Wake should take out some of the frustrations it has felt the past two weeks.
CFN Prediction: Wake Forest 38 … Army 13 ... Line: Wake Forest -21 
Must See Rating: (5 Britney at the VMAs - 1 Big Shots) ... 1.5

Ball State (1-1) at Navy (1-1)  5:00 pm CSTV
Why to Watch: Navy has done a terrific job under head coach Paul Johnson of beating all the mediocre teams on the slate. There haven’t been many slips, and that’s why the Midshipmen have been going bowling so often. This game has the potential to be one of those gaffes, with Ball State coming in with the type of team that could pull off the upset. Nate Davis and the passing game haven’t taken off yet, but that’s partially because the offense is trying to establish some balance. After losing the season opener to Miami University in the final moments, the Cardinal came back to blowout Eastern Michigan 38-16. With Nebraska ahead, this is a must-win to avoid a 1-3 start. For Navy, a season opening struggle against Temple was followed up with a good performance in a 41-24 loss to Rutgers that was better than it looks on paper. As always, this is one of the nation’s best rushing teams, but it hasn’t been the killer of past seasons quite yet.
Why Ball State Might Win: Davis and the Ball State passing game should be able to complete midrange passes to its heart’s content. Navy has been awful so far in pass efficiency defense, allowing Temple’s Adam DeMichele to complete 21 of 29 passes and Rutgers’ Mike Teel to complete 14 of 19 passes. Davis is coming off a 306-yard, four touchdown performance against EMU and has yet to throw a pick this year. Watch out for his second straight 300-yard game.
Why Navy Might Win: Ball State hasn’t been able to do much so far this year when it comes to generating pressure up front. The defensive front four will do more reading and reacting against Navy since it’s not able to attack and get into the backfield, and that could be a major problem. Navy’s ground game kills defenses that are on their heels. .
Who to Watch: Kenny Meeks, Mike Dorulla and Bryant Haines. These are the three starting Ball State linebackers, and these three have to put up huge numbers if the Cardinals are going to have any sort of a shot at pulling off the win. Dorulla is the biggest question mark in the middle, having to replace injured starter Wendell Brown, but Haines should help out. The junior has been a tackling machine on the weakside, making 21 tackles in the first two games, and he’ll be well over the double-digit mark this week. 
What Will Happen: Navy’s defense hasn’t been up-to-snuff so far, and it’s going to struggle with Ball State’s balance. It’ll really struggle once Davis gets going, and he will get going. Of course, Navy will control the clock for stretches and will have its big drives that’ll kill the BSU momentum, but the Cardinals will show more firepower.
CFN Prediction: Ball State 35 … Navy 31 ... Line: Navy -7.5
Must See Rating: (5 Britney at the VMAs - 1 Big Shots) ... 2.5