Independent Fearless Predictions, Sept. 22

Previews and Predictions for the Week 4 Independent Games.

 
Independents
Army | Navy | Notre Dame

Independent Fearless Predictions Sept. 1 | Sept. 8 | Sept. 15

How are the picks so far? SU: 9-0 ... ATS: 7-2

Independent Game of the Week

Michigan State (0-2) at Notre Dame (0-2)  3:30 PM NBC
Why to Watch: Next up to have a turn at poor Notre Dame is Michigan State, who's looking to keep the hot start under head coach Mark Dantonio going after surviving a strange 17-13 battle against Pitt. The Spartans have done this before, like last year, only to see everything unravel at the blink of an eye. Could this be 2006 all over again? MSU started out the season 3-0, looked strong, was blowing out Notre Dame, and then choked away a 40-37 loss to the Irish that set the wheels in motion for a bizarre rest of the year, losing seven of the final eight games, and needing an all-timer of a comeback against Northwestern to pull off the one win. Losing to Notre Dame this year might be even more painful, and with a trip to Wisconsin ahead, the last thing the team needs is to start worrying about yet another collapse. The Irish woes have been well documented with no offensive touchdowns and horrific offensive play that's on setting an all-time mark for futility. With road games against Purdue and UCLA ahead, followed up by dates with Boston College and USC, this might be the team's last honest shot at a win until early November.
Why Michigan State Might Win: The Irish lines are next-level awful. Why all the problems trying to move the ball? The skill players aren't getting any time with the quarterbacks being sacked 23 times so far, the most in the nation. MSU is tied for the the nation's lead in sacks with 17, and is third in tackles for loss with 31. In other words, Jimmy Clausen and the boys aren't going to have any time to operate this week, either. On the other side of the ball, the Spartans should be able to run at will on an Irish defensive front that hasn't been remotely close to making a big stop.
Why Notre Dame Might Win: You don't think Michigan State believes it's won this game already? The Spartans can talk all they want about wanting revenge for last year, but they've seen what's happened so far. They can't look at the film and not be kicking their feet up a little bit. Pitt was without its starting quarterback last week, struggled to move the ball, turned it over three times, got 85 passing yards, and it still had the ball with one last shot to win the game. The MSU defense is hardly a rock, and if Clausen can get any time whatsoever, he should be able to produce.
Who to Watch: The formula should be simple for Michigan State. Don't turn the ball over, keep running, run it some more, and if the running game gets stuffed,  run it again. Eventually, the home runs will be there for Javon Ringer, who has gotten off to a hot start running for 80, 83 and 92 yards, and for pounder Jehuu Caulcrick, who has rushed for 93, 53 and 71 yards with six touchdowns. For the Irish, it's time to do something drastic, and that might mean winging it around a bit. Clausen hasn't had time to open it up, and his short passes haven't gone anywhere. Watch for more deep balls this week.
What Will Happen: Notre Dame will get an offensive touchdown, and will even get a second. Michigan State will get more. The Spartan ground game will eat up time, while the aggressive defensive front will put Clausen on his back for at least four sacks.
CFN Prediction: Michigan State 28 ... Notre Dame 14 ... Line: Michigan State -13.5
Must See Rating: (5 Curb Your Enthusiasm - 1 Kid Nation) ... 3

Independents Saturday, September 22

Army (1-2) at Boston College (3-0)  1:00 PM ESPN Classic
Why to Watch: The Eagles are on the verge of something special, and if you haven’t caught their act yet, it’s time. 3-0, with all three wins coming against ACC teams, this is quickly becoming the team to be. The offense has been effective and opportunistic, while the defense is among the best and most active in America.  The Army game begins a series of very winnable games against the Eagles, and that includes a day in South Bend in a few weeks. 7-0 before facing Virginia Tech is a must at this point. Army’s defense hasn’t been bad so far, but the offense has struggled mightily to put up points. It’s going to take an all-timer of an effort to win this, but BC could be napping after the statement-game 24-10 win at Georgia Tech last week.
Why Army Might Win: One word: Defense. The Knights are 17^th in the nation in total defense, allowing just 268 yards per game, is seventh in pass defense, and is only allowing 16.67 points per game. Since 20 of those points have come from opposing defenses or special teams, the Knights are actually allowing ten a game on defense. As good as BC is, it’s not the type of team that’ll put up 50 on the board unless it gets involved in a shootout. Army should be able to keep within striking distance for a while.
Why Boston College Might Win: All the parts are there on both sides of the ball, and all the pieces are clicking. From QB Matt Ryan, to the emergence of Andre Callender as a perfect fit for the offense, to the defense that keeps forcing big play after big play. BC is third in the nation with 11 takeaways and sixth overall with a plus-two turnover margin. If the Knights are excited about that running output last weekend, they might get glum quickly against BC, which allows just 40.3 yards per game on the ground, fourth best in the nation. Considering the Eagles have beaten Wake Forest, NC State and Georgia Tech, who can all run, the D has been better than it gets credit for.
Who to Watch: After being the first-ever rookie to start at quarterback for Army against Navy last year, Carson Williams was expected to launch a campaign for the starting job early on. Instead, he lost out to David Pevoto during summer practice and was expected to wait his turn. But when Pevoto went down with an injury two weeks ago in the win over Rhode Island, Williams took over and completed 12-of-20 passes for 148 yards and the winning touchdown. Last week, he was 14-of-34 for 165 yards against Wake and seems ready to re-assert himself as the Army’s top QB. He’ll make a slew of big mistakes, but these are the growing pains he’ll need to fight through.
What Will Happen: If BC expects an easy game against Army, it might find itself in some early trouble. The tough Knight D will hold up for a half, and then the BC talent and experience will take over.
CFN Prediction: Boston College 38 ... Army 6 .. Line: Boston College -29
Must See Rating: (5 Curb Your Enthusiasm - 1 Kid Nation) ... 1.5

Duke (1-2) at Navy (1-2)  1:00 PM
Why to watch: For the first time in almost two years, the only streak Duke is looking to further is a winning one.  The Blue Devils shocked Northwestern in Evanston last Saturday, ending the nation’s longest losing streak at 22 games and winning away from Durham for the first time since 2003.  With the confidence the program gained by finally breaking through and closing out a tight game, it has enough talent, particularly on defense, to pull another surprise at some point this season.  Navy is trying to regroup from an emotional overtime loss to Ball State that easily could have ended up in the win column.  It was a game the Middies were supposed to win, so there’s no margin for error against programs, such as Duke, if they plan to be bowling for a fifth December in-a-row.  Depth is becoming a major concern in Annapolis with Navy losing key players on defense in each of the last two weeks.
Why Duke might win: Don’t underestimate the impact that last week’s victory will have on a young program that was pining for something positive to happen.  Or the impact of the recent injuries to a Navy defense that’s already 93^rd nationally in total defense and dead last in sacks.  This is the ideal venue for Blue Devil QB Thaddeus Lewis to have a monster game with the help of his primary receivers, Eron Riley, Jomar Wright, and Raphael Chestnut.
Why Navy might win: No one’s stopping this running attack, especially a team with mediocre linebackers like Duke has.  The Middies lead the country in rushing at 378 yards a game, including a whopping 521 yards last week on 65 carries.  Duke’s ACC-worst defense is going to get worn out by Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada, Adam Ballard, Eric Kettani, and the rest of Navy methodical triple-option attack.
Who to watch: While Ballard is the mainstay at fullback for Navy, Kettani is making it hard for Paul Johnson to keep him out of the lineup.  Not your typical north-south bruiser, he packs 4.5 speed into a thick, 6-1 and 233-pound frame, and is coming off a career day of nine carries for 126 yards and two touchdowns against Ball State.  He could be the next Ballard as early as this fall.
What will happen: Provided the Naval Academy doesn’t have to rely on one of its kickers to win the game, it’ll avoid another upset by pounding out almost 400 yards between the tackles and keeping its hobbled defense on the sidelines for extended periods of time.  
CFN Prediction: Navy 29 ... Duke 24 .. Line: Navy -10.5
Must See Rating: (5 Curb Your Enthusiasm - 1 Kid Nation) ... 2