Independent Fearless Predictions, Sept. 29

Previews and Predictions for the Week 5 Independent Games.

Independents
Army | Navy | Notre Dame

Independent Fearless Predictions Sept. 1 | Sept. 8 | Sept. 15
Sept. 22

How are the picks so far? SU: 12-0 ... ATS: 10-2

Independent Game of the Week

Notre Dame (0-4) at Purdue (4-0)  12:00 PM ESPN
Why to Watch: Up next on the fun is Purdue, who's looking to stop a two game losing streak to the Irish. Everyone's getting fat right now on Notre Dame, but after the loss to Michigan State, this date in West Lafayette might be the best chance to get a win before November. The offense still isn't doing anything, the defense isn't holding up under the weight of carrying the team, and South Bend is in a general state of panic. on the flip side, Purdue has started out the season red hot, scoring 52, 52, 45 and 45 points in its first four games. As bad as Notre Dame has been, this is the first big test for the Boilermakers, and it's a shot at a big confidence boost before facing Ohio State and Michigan.
Why Notre Dame Might Win: Purdue's defense has suffered a few letdowns in the second half, but that's mostly because the offense has gotten off to hot starts. If the Irish can somehow keep this a game going into the locker room, then there's a chance the running game, if there's a commitment to it, might finally get going. Purdue can be run on, but it takes a while to beat it down. The D has yet to be truly pushed.
Why Purdue Might Win: It might just be as simple as the Irish's inability to outscore the Boilermakers. Notre Dame has scored 27 points in the first four games, while Purdue has scored more than that in a half of each of the first four games. The Irish defensive front isn't generating any pressure, and Purdue's offensive line isn't allowing any sacks, so Curtis Painter should be able to have all the time he wants to bomb away. For the first time this year, the ND D will get thrown on.
Who to Watch: Purdue junior QB Curtis Painter has been well out of any Heisman discussion, but he's starting to enter Drew Brees-like territory as far as his numbers and production. Playing Notre Dame, even a bad Notre Dame, gets you noticed, and this needs to be when Painter explodes. His biggest problem was interceptions, throwing 19 past year and eight in his final four games, but he's only given it away once so far while bombing away for 16 touchdown passes. Part of the reason is the protection he's getting from the line, part of the reason is a deep and talented receiving corps, and part of the reason is that he's good.
What Will Happen: Notre Dame will get a few touchdowns to make this fun, with Jimmy Clausen tossing his first touchdown pass, but there won't be nearly enough production to overcome the Purdue attack.
CFN Prediction: Purdue 38 ... Notre Dame 20 ... Line: Purdue -21.5
Must See Rating: (5 Ken Burns' The War - 1 The Big Bang Theory) ... 2.5

Independents Saturday, September 29

Temple (0-4) at Army (1-3)   12:00 PM ESPNU
Why to watch: Rice, Utah State and Florida International are the nation's worst teams, but Temple and Army square off in the battle for a sure-thing spot in the bottom three in America. Even so, the two aren't playing all that poorly; they're just not winning. Temple has dropped seven straight, and was hosed by a bad call in a loss to Connecticut. The defense is spotty, and the offense is trying to find something it can do consistently well, while Army is going through growing pains in the first year under head man Stan Brock. There's a solid chance the loser doesn't win another game all year.
Why Temple might win: You know what you'll get out of the Army offense. A little bit of passing, an ill-fated attempt to run the ball, and around 14 points. This isn't an explosive attack by any stretch, and it simply can't put points on the board. That might quickly change against the mediocre Temple defense, but if the Owls can somehow get up early, it'll force Army to start throwing, and that'll mean several sacks and a few picks.
Why Army might win: The defense is playing stunningly well. Don't let the 37 points put up by Boston College last week fool you; it was a struggle for Matt Ryan and the boys to finally put the game away. Temple hasn't been able to run the ball effectively, needing its passing game to get things moving, but the Black Knight secondary has been decent, despite getting bombed on by Ryan. Temple isn't going to throw for 300 yards.
Who to watch: Slowly but surely, Temple's offense is starting to grow under junior QB Adam DiMichele, and it showed last week with a 299-yard, four touchdown passing day in the loss to Bowling Green. While not all that big, he's extremely accurate at times and has limited his big mistakes over the last two weeks, only throwing one interception. Last week he did a tremendous job of spreading the wealth around, and against the good Army secondary, he'll have to quickly find his second and third options to keep the offense moving.
What will happen: Temple will finally put it all together and come up with a win. The Owl defense will keep the struggling Army offense from getting on track, while DiMichele will be the star of the game with an efficient performance.
CFN Prediction: Temple 26 ... Army 17 .. Line: Army -6
Must See Rating: (5 Ken Burns' The War - 1 The Big Bang Theory) ... 1.5

Air Force (3-1) at Navy (2-2)  1:00 PM CSTV
Why to Watch: While it doesn't have the fierceness of Army-Navy, Air Force-Navy is still a great yearly battle between brothers in arms, and it's often been far, far more entertaining a game than the more celebrated service academy battle at the end of the year. Navy has won the last four games between the two by seven, three, three and three points, but this is Air Force's best chance to win in the last few years, thanks to an improved offense and surprisingly rock-solid defense. A player in the Mountain West with a 2-1 conference start, the Falcons could use a little momentum after getting blasted 31-6 by BYU. Navy's schedule eases up in a big way in about three weeks, but after struggling to beat Duke, and losing to Ball State in overtime, it needs this win over Air Force to keep bowl hopes alive.
Why Air Force Might Win: The normal Navy formula of running the ball, controlling the clock, and getting its defense off the field isn't working, mainly because the defense isn't doing much to shut down drives. Everyone's throwing on the porous Midshipman defense, including Duke's Thaddeus Lewis, who chucked it for 428 yards and four touchdowns last week. As far as a pass rush, forget it. Air Force will have all the time in the world to let a few deeper pass plays develop.
Why Navy Might Win: Can Air Force stop the run? Statistically, yes, allowing fewer than 100 yards per game, but in reality, the jury is still out. TCU didn't have top back Aaron Brown against the Falcons, Utah was in its first game after losing mobile QB Brian Johnson and top back Matt Asiata, and BYU spent its time throwing the ball, but got a 111-yard rushing day from Harvey Unga. This is the first time all year the Falcons will have to deal with a talented rushing team, and its linebackers are going to struggle from the start.
Who to Watch: What is Navy doing with its quarterback situation? Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada has been the main man all season long, and he's been decent running the ball, but his biggest mark was made as a passer against Duke, completing 11 of 16 passes for 217 yards and a touchdown with an interception. Even so, it was Jarod Bryant who sparked the offense in the comeback win, running for 69 yards in a limited role. While head coach Paul Johnson isn't going to rotate the two, but if there are any struggles at all, Bryant will get off the bench in a hurry.
What Will Happen: Navy's offense will do its usual thing, cranking out 350 yards on the ground, but the defense won't be able to handle the attempted balance of Air Force. The Falcons will get 200 passing yards on the way to its first win in the series since a 48-7 victory in 2002.
CFN Prediction: Air Force 31 ... Navy 23 ... Line: Navy -3
Must See Rating: (5 Ken Burns' The War - 1 The Big Bang Theory) ... 2.5