M-West Fearless Predictions, Sept. 1

Previews and Predictions for the Week 1 Mountain West Games

Mountain West
Air Force | BYU | Colorado State | New Mexico
San Diego State | TCU | UNLV | Utah | Wyoming

Mountain West Week One Fearless Predictions, Part 2

MWest Fearless Predictions Sept. 8 | Sept. 15 | Sept. 22 | Sept. 29 
 Oct. 6 | Oct. 13 | Oct. 20 | Oct. 27 | Nov. 3 | Nov. 10 | Nov. 17 | Nov. 24 | Dec. 1 

Mountain West Game of the Week

Arizona at BYU 5:30 PM Versus
Why to watch: After winning 11 games and a Mountain West title last year, BYU is determined to raise the bar in 2007.  Arizona’s Mike Stoops, on the other hand, might be looking for a job if he can’t lead the program to the post-season in his fourth year.  The Wildcat head coach took a page out of the BYU blueprint in the off-season, looking to Lubbock and hiring a Mike Leach disciple to run his feeble offense.  It’s worked so far for the Cougars, who hired Robert Anae away from Texas Tech three years ago, and Stoops is hoping Sonny Dykes can be just as successful in Tucson.  It won’t happen overnight, but the healthy return of strong-armed Willie Tuitama will help with the transition.  It’s a tall order, but BYU will be right back in the conference title hunt if it can solve its backfield issues, specifically at quarterback, where John Beck has graduated.  The heir apparent is Max Hall, who shares some of Beck’s cerebral qualities and actually prepped at the same high school, yet will be taking his first college snaps Saturday night.  He didn’t stick around Arizona State long enough to play for a Territorial Cup, but beating Arizona in his debut won’t be any less satisfying.
Why Arizona might win: Hall’s first live action in four years will come against one of the Pac-10 best all-around defenses.  That’s a recipe for short drives and turnovers.  The Wildcats are especially strong in the back seven, led by all-league LB Spencer Larsen and Antoine Cason, an elite corner capable of completing walling off half the field.  If Hall doesn’t get help from a rebuilt running game, he’ll have a hard time moving the ball through the air. This isn’t the team you want to start your career against. 
Why BYU might win: It’s going to take a while before Arizona feels truly comfortable in an offense that’s a stark contrast from last season and doesn’t quite fit the team’s personnel.  Until Tuitama and his young receivers are on the same page, expect lots of miscommunication and a fair amount of turnovers.  BYU has the experience and opportunistic tendencies, especially at linebacker, to turn those mistakes into points.  Don’t underestimate how tough it is to win in Provo, where head coach Bronco Mendenhall has made a special point of making sure the Cougars play up to their potential.  
Who to watch: With BYU star tight end Jonny Harline gone, Hall needs to find a go-to receiver this weekend and beyond.  Now that he’s returned from a two-year Church mission, WR Austin Collie is more than capable of filling the void if he can be consistent.  Now a solid 6-2 and 210 pounds with deep skills, he was a find as a true freshman in 2004, hauling in 53 passes for 771 yards and eight touchdowns. On the other side, this is when Tuitama has to shine. Everyone has been waiting for him to become the superstar he appeared to be growing into two years ago, and a win here in the new offense would go a long way to setting the tone for the season.
What will happen: Both defenses will be noticeably ahead of the offenses, resulting in a low-scoring game for the second straight year.  If won’t be a heart-stopper like last season, when the Wildcats pulled out a tough one with a bomb of a field goal, but it’ll be tight. BYU will win a battle of turnovers and field position, as Arizona shows serious growing pains with Dykes’ new offense.
CFN Prediction: BYU 23 … Arizona 16 ... Line: BYU -6
Must See Rating: (5 Hef wants you to take his place on The Girls Next Door, but you can’t because you have to watch this game - 1 Cavemen) ... 3
Final Score:

Mountain West Thursday, August 30

UNLV at Utah State 8:00 PM
Why to watch: O.K. UNLV, here's your chance to get off to a good start and finally, finally start to turn things around in the Mike Sanford era. The schedule gets way nasty over the next month, so a loss, or a bad performance, against Utah State could be a big problem early on. For the Aggies, just getting a win of any sort is vital to finally, finally turning around the program under head coach Brent Guy. They have to take advantage of everyone home opportunity they can get, and after a year of being among the worst teams in college football, they have to show right away that this is a new team and a new year.
Why UNLV might win: Does Utah State have any offense to keep up if UNLV gets any points on the board? The experience is there, but the playmakers aren't, as the Aggies lack the difference makers who can take a game by the horns. The offensive backfield is mediocre at best, and it won't have the consistency to give the average defense a break if UNLV's offense starts to click. The Aggie secondary shouldn't be able to handle the Rebel receivers.
Why Utah State might win: It's not like the Rebel offense has blown up under Sanford, and it'll likely take a few games before it gets going this year thanks to all the issues at quarterback. Utah State is loaded with veteran players who've been through all the lean times. Talent might be an issue, but all 11 starters are back on defense with a ton of depth waiting in the wings. This isn't a big defense, but it's just quick enough to potentially be disruptive if the Rebels aren't sharp.
Who to watch: UNLV QB Rocky Hinds gutted it out on a gimpy knee throughout last season, and unfortunately, it still seems to be giving him problems. While Hinds is still the team's best quarterback, it'll be up to redshirt freshman Travis Dixon to lead the way after a good off-season. Not the passer Hinds is, Dixon is a good runner who fits the spread offense a little bit better. He was an ultra-efficient high school passer who should grow into the face of the program over the next few years if Hinds isn't able to come back healthy this season.
What will happen: Dixon will be impressive, the Rebel offense will move like it wasn't able to throughout last year, and Utah State will start the season with a rough loss after a good first half.
CFN Prediction: UNLV 31 ... Utah State 16 ... Line: UNLV -7.5
Must See Rating: (5 Hef wants you to take his place on The Girls Next Door, but you can’t because you have to watch this game - 1 Cavemen) ... 1.5

Utah at Oregon State  10:00 PM FSN Regional
Why to watch: While Utah welcomes back its franchise passer after a 21-month hiatus, Oregon State spent the entire off-season trying to decide on its quarterback of the future.  Brian Johnson makes his long-awaited return to the Utes from a serious ACL tear that prematurely ended his 2005 season.  At the time, he was ripping through the Mountain West en route to becoming one of the nation’s premier dual-threats.  Flanked by the league’s best receiving corps, a bigger and stronger Johnson is ready to pick up where he left off two years ago and become the star of the Mountain West.  The Beavers, on the other hand, are still working on finding its leader. Sophomore Sean Canfield gets the nod to start, but he struggled to get separation from unheralded Lyle Moevao, who’ll get his audition in the second quarter .  Both will spend plenty of time getting the ball to multi-dimensional RB Yvenson Bernard, who’s been ultra-productive as a runner and a receiver throughout his career.  Oregon State’s longshot bid of storming the Pac-10 gates in 2007 will suffer a major blow if last weekend’s return of Sammie Stroughter from a mysterious absence winds up being just a tease.
Why Utah might win: The Utes’ strength on offense, the passing game, is sure to attack a Beaver secondary that’s rife with question marks.  Yeah, three starters return, but Oregon State allows too many big plays through the air and no longer has Sabby Piscitelli to cover for some of the mistakes by the cornerbacks.  Johnson will have a ton of viable options when he drops back, including Derrek Richards and Brent Casteel, who combined for 99 receptions and 16 touchdown catches a year ago.
Why Oregon State might win: The best way to keep the Utah offense quiet is to not allow it on the field.  With the Ute defense looking to replace three all-league performers, and noticeably average on the interior, the Beavers will control the clock with Bernard and one of the nastiest offensive lines in America.  Just when Utah begins to overcommit to the run, Canfield and Moevao will play-action their way to big chunks of real estate against a secondary playing its first game without all-timer Eric Weddle.
Who to watch: Utah’s Zane Beadles will be a marked man Thursday night.  The sophomore is shifting from left guard to left tackle to replace the injured Jason Boone, the Utes’ best blocker.  Johnson’s blindside will be protected by a novice, which will be a huge concern against Oregon State’s seasoned ends, Jeff Van Orsow and Dorian Smith. 
What will happen: In an entertaining opener, the Utes will move the ball and flirt for a while with the upset before running out of steam in the second half.  Playing with something to prove, Bernard will be the catalyst in Corvallis, wearing out the Utah defense, while racking up 150 total yards and two scores.
CFN Prediction: Oregon State 33 … Utah 24 ... Line: Oregon State -7
Must See Rating: (5 Hef wants you to take his place on The Girls Next Door, but you can’t because you have to watch this game - 1 Cavemen) ... 3.5
Final Score:

Mountain West Saturday, September 1

Colorado State at Colorado  12:00 PM
Why to watch: A pair of intense rivals coming off awful seasons would like nothing more than a fast start and to add to the other program’s misery.  This is supposed to be a bounce-back year for each team, but that’ll end with a crashing thud for the loser. After Colorado reached bedrock with a 2-10 record last year, it’ll slowly begin the climb back toward prominence with head coach Dan Hawkins leading the way.  While the defense will carry the team in the early going, the biggest strides will be seen with an offense that couldn’t get out of its way in 2006.  The coach’s son, Cody, will be behind center, and despite being young and just 5-11, will prove to be a much better fit for the attack than Bernard Jackson was last year.  Colorado won’t be a favorite often this year, so this is close to a must-win situation.  Over the last 40 games, Colorado State has gone 16-24, and been a shell of the program that rocked from 1994-2003.  Optimism for a return to prosperity comes in the form of 18 returning starters and the re-emergence of RB Kyle Bell, who missed all of last year with a knee injury.  A 6-2, 230-pound hammer, he’ll be looking to regain the form that led to 1,288 yards rushing and ten touchdowns in 2005.
Why Colorado might win: Lost in the Buffs’ implosion a year ago was the fact that defensive coordinator Ron Collins laid the foundation of a solid unit that stopped the run and created takeaways with its aggressive style.  Much of that group returns, including tackles George Hypolite and Brandon Nicolas, outside backers Jordon Dizon and Brad Jones, and Terrence Wheatley is a true shutdown corner.  Colorado will corral Bell in his return to action, turning mistake-prone QB Caleb Hanie into the focal point of the Ram offense.
Why Colorado State might win: Can the Buffaloes score enough to win this game? Hawkins will eventually be an upgrade at quarterback, but not this early in his career, or in front of 75,000 insane fans at Invesco Field.  Like Colorado, Colorado State can play a little D as well.  The Rams welcome back nine defensive starters and crackerjack punter Jimmie Kaylor, who’ll give the Buffs a long field to navigate all afternoon.  Even if Bell doesn’t crank out huge numbers, his presence alone is going to an emotional jolt to Colorado State.
Who to watch: Bell’s return from a serious knee injury will make headlines, but the main storyline will be Hawkins’ debut as Colorado’s starting quarterback.  He’ll have his baptism under fire in front of a rabid audience and in the face of a hostile opponent.  Hawkins has been running this offense since he was in diapers, but will need help from an average line and a vanilla set of receivers.
What will happen: As always, the intensity in Denver will be a mile high.  Offensive execution, however, will not.  In a nip-and-tuck defensive struggle, Colorado will make a late stop to preserve an emotional and poignant victory.
CFN Prediction: Colorado 23 … Colorado State 19 ... Line: Colorado -3
Must See Rating: (5 Hef wants you to take his place on The Girls Next Door, but you can’t because you have to watch this game - 1 Cavemen) ... 3

Mountain West Week One Fearless Predictions, Part 2