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MWC Fearless Predictions, Sept. 8

CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Sep 6, 2007

Previews and Predictions for the Week 2 MWC Games.

Mountain West
Air Force | BYU | Colorado State | New Mexico
San Diego State | TCU | UNLV | Utah | Wyoming

MWest Fearless Predictions Sept. 1Sept. 15Sept. 22 | Sept. 29 
Oct. 6Oct. 13 | Oct. 20Oct. 27 | Nov. 3Nov. 10 | Nov. 17Nov. 24

How are the picks so far? SU: 7-1 ... ATS: 3-3-1

Mountain West Fearless Predictions, Week Two, Part 2

Mountain West Game of the Week

TCU (1-0) at Texas (1-0) 7:00 PM
Why to Watch: While the Miami-Oklahoma game will be the marquee matchup of the Big 12 slate, this one might be more important to the national title chase. This is TCU's BCS game. This is TCU's shot at being more than Boise State. This is TCU's biggest game in decades. This is TCU's chance at the big time, with a win likely to spark a debate all season long about the possibility of deserving a spot in the BCS Championship. The Mountain West is decent, and there are road dates at Wyoming and BYU looming, but this is for all the marbles in what could be the program's biggest win since shocking Oklahoma 17-10 in the 2005 season opener. For Texas, this is a chance to be Texas again. It's been a rough last four games for the Longhorns with losses to Kansas State and Texas A&M, followed up by a lackluster bowl win over a bad Iowa team, followed up by a 21-13 win over ... Arkansas State?! Longhorn fans are dying for their boys to turn it on again, and this game will show if this really is a good team, or if it just looks the part in the orange jerseys.
Why TCU Might Win: The Texas offensive line hasn't been up to snuff, at least it wasn't against Arkansas State, and now it'll face one of the nation's most dangerous defensive lines. The Horned Frog defensive front seven is the real deal, led by the type of pass rushers who should put more pressure on QB Colt McCoy than he's seen since becoming the starter. Consistency is going to be a problem for a Longhorn attack that couldn't run the ball last week and might not have time to let the deep pass plays develop.
Why Texas Might Win: It's not like TCU is going to hang 50 on the board. All things go through the TCU defense, and if it's not dominant, the offense won't be able to pick up the slack. If Texas can get up by double-digits, it's over. While the Longhorns got ran on by the Indians, this is a nasty run defense that's much better than it showed. UT will put everyone and the jerseys of Tommy Nobis and Derrick Johnson up front to stop the run because ...
Who to Watch: ... TCU QB Andy Dalton probably isn't quite ready for primetime. While the freshman was fine against Baylor, completing 18 of 30 passes for 205 yards and a touchdown, he has to do more than just manage the game and limit mistakes. He's going to have to be a difference maker, and if this isn't his coming out party, TCU won't be able to pull off the upset.
What Will Happen: TCU just doesn't have enough horses to make it happen. Star DE Tommy Blake is coming off an undisclosed illness and star RB Aaron Brown is injured. Texas has had to hear about this game all off-season and will give it all the attention and focus it deserves.
CFN Prediction: Texas 17 ... TCU 10
... Line: Texas -10.5
Must See Rating: (5 Mad Men - 1 Chelsea Lately) ... 4.5
Final Score: 

Mountain West Saturday, September 8

Utah State (0-1) at Wyoming (1-0) 2:00 PM
Why to watch:
All of a sudden, Wyoming went from an afterthought in the upcoming Mountain West race to a possible contender after wiping away Virginia 23-3. The Cowboys showed good offensive balance, tremendous defense, and good special teams in a near-perfect win over a name team. Road trips to Boise State and Ohio are up next before the Mountain West opener against TCU. The Cowboys need to keep improving before the Horned Frogs come to town. Utah State has lost seven in a row and 12 of its last 13, but it played relatively well, at least defensively, in a 23-16 loss to UNLV last week. With Oklahoma up next, the Aggies need a positive performance to avoid a brutal start to the year.
Why Utah State might win: Kevin Robinson. For Utah State to pull off a shocking upset, it needs help from everywhere possible. Robinson is one of the team's best all-around playmakers as the top receiver, but his real worth could be as a kick and punt returners. He gave the Rebels fits last week averaging 23.5 yards per punt return and almost 28 yards per kickoff return, and he's going to have to give the anemic attack great field position time and again for this to be close.
Why Wyoming might win: Virginia relied on a mobile quarterback and a slew of running backs to try to beat Wyoming. Utah State will rely on a mobile quarterback and a slew of running backs to try to beat the Cowboys. USU starting QB Leon Jackson isn't Jameel Sewell, Virginia's starting quarterback, and the Aggie runners aren't nearly as strong as Virginia's. If Wyoming could hold Virginia to seven net yards rushing, it should be able to shut down USU.
Who to watch: Wyoming's thunder and lightning tandem of running backs worked together perfectly against the Cavaliers. Powerback Wynel Seldon ran for 74 yards, while speedster Devin Moore  tore off 125 yards and a touchdown on just 18 carries. QB Karsten Sween is a talent, but the more work done by the running backs over the next several games, the better.
What will happen: Wyoming isn't going to let down now. A tough team at home, the Virginia win will only fire everyone up, led by a defense that'll keep Utah State from getting anything going until garbage time.
CFN Prediction: Wyoming 34 ... Utah State 6... Line:  Wyoming -24.5
Must See Rating: (5 Mad Men - 1 Chelsea Lately) ... 1.5
Final Score:


California (1-0) at Colorado State (0-1)  2:00 EST
Why to watch: One long year after enduring a public spanking at the hands of Tennessee, Cal got redemption with a 45-31 win over the Volunteers in Berkeley.  With so much emphasis put on that opener, will the Bears have anything left for a trip to Fort Collins to play a Mountain West opponent?  They better because the stakes have never been higher for a program that’s moved up two spots to No. 10 in the polls and is can start dreaming about a major bowl game for the first time since 1958.  The extra special part about Saturday’s win is that it was a total team effort.  Not only was the offense humming, but the defense and special teams also contributed touchdowns.  Cal’s not the only team in Hughes Stadium that needs to ward off a letdown this week.  Colorado State is feeling pretty bummed after dropping a game to rival Colorado in overtime that it led 28-17 in the second half.  The Rams played well enough to win and won just about every statistical category, but still came up short.  The silver lining in the loss was the return of RB Kyle Bell, who missed all of 2006 with a knee injury.
Why Cal might win: We’re only one game into the season, and Jeff Tedford’s offense already looks downright scary.  Justin Forsett appears more than capable of handling the role of every down back, and Nate Longshore was sharp in the win over Tennessee, going 19-of-28 for 241 yards and a pair of touchdowns.  After having some problems in Denver with Colorado’s Cody Hawkins and Demetrius Sumler, a couple of freshmen, the Rams will wilt in the face of the Bears’ speed and offensive diversity.
Why Colorado State might win: For Cal on Saturday night, it wasn’t all peaches and cream in Strawberry Canyon.  The defense allowed Arian Foster to average almost seven yards a carry and Erik Ainge to throw for 271 yards and three touchdowns.  While Foster and Ainge don’t play for Sonny Lubick, Ram QB Caleb Hanie is an efficient passer and Bell is one of the Mountain West’s toughest backs.  Against a Bear D that’s still adjusting to the loss of three all-stars, Hanie will find TE Kory Sperry and WR Johnny Walker often, while Bell controls the clock with 30 carries.
Who to watch: While Longshore, Forsett, and DeSean Jackson gobble up most of the headlines, Cal has some budding stars on defense who emerged last Saturday night.  LB Zack Follett is a truly disruptive playmaker, who set the tone for Saturday night’s win by nailing Ainge on the opening drive and forcing a fumble that Worrell Williams returned for a touchdown. He has to hit Bell early and often.
What will happen: Don’t be surprised if Cal is a little groggy for the first quarter of Saturday’s game. Fueled by the skill position players, the Bears will snap out of it early enough to get out of Colorado with a comfortable win.
CFN Prediction: California 41 … Colorado State 20 ... Line:  Cal -17
Must See Rating: (5 Mad Men - 1 Chelsea Lately) ... 3
Final Score:

BYU (1-0) at UCLA (1-0) 6:30 EST
Why to watch: A couple of programs that smacked around second-tier Pac-10 teams on opening day hook up for the first time since 1993.  UCLA was supposed to beat Stanford, and it did so in style, rolling up 624 yards and 45 points in Jay Norvell’s debut as the offensive coordinator.  QB Ben Olson, who originally signed with BYU in 2002 as a monster recruit, went berserk in the opener (despite a few too many misfires), throwing for five touchdowns and 286 yards on 16-of-29 passing.  If this is the year that Olson finally puts it all together, the Bruins have the veteran talent around him to be one of this year's main contenders for really big things.  The Cougars were almost as impressive in Week One, stuffing Arizona, 20-7, in a game that was considered to be a toss-up.  Not too shabby for a school that was replacing QB John Beck with untested sophomore Max Hall.  BYU has spanked Pac-10 teams in its last two games, and won’t be flustered by playing in Pasadena.
Why BYU might win: The Cougars are one of the only teams outside of a BCS conference that can go toe-to-toe with UCLA in the trenches.  On the offensive line, Sete Aulai and Dallas Reynolds will help keep DE Bruce Davis from going wild, while creating some space for Fui Vakapuna and Harvey Unga to move the chains.  The Bruin pass rush wasn’t there last week, and if its not humming, BYU will put up yards and points in bunches. Defensively, BYU is a disciplined group that rarely misses tackles, and held Arizona to just 288 yards and one score last weekend.
Why UCLA might win: Hall is going to be a good one in Provo, but it’s asking way too much for him to beat this speedy, experienced Bruin defense in just his second career start.  The Cougars also lack the burners at the skill positions to break free from a unit that closes fast and makes a lot of plays for negative yards.  On offense, UCLA showed hints last week of the big-play ability that escaped them in 2006.  Olson is poised for a huge season, and Chris Markey and Kahlil Bell combined for 266 yards on The Farm last Saturday.
Who to watch: Reggie Carter is one of those UCLA linebackers that gets to the ball in an instant and plays with outstanding range and tenacity.  Built like a safety at 6-1 and 220 pounds, he began his sophomore year with ten tackles and two tackles for loss, and will post similar numbers against the methodical Cougars.
What will happen: A visit from BYU will be a great test for a UCLA program that’s trying to figure out if it’s a legit top 10 team or not.  The Bruins will pass on the strength of Olson’s left arm and a stingy defense that doesn’t quite get the credit it deserves.
CFN Prediction:
UCLA 30 … BYU 16 ... Line: UCLA -7.5
Must See Rating: (5 Mad Men - 1 Chelsea Lately) ... 3.5
Final Score:

Mountain West Fearless Predictions, Week Two, Part 2
 

  

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 -by CollegeFootballNews.com  Sep 20, 2007

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