MWC Fearless Predictions, Sept. 29

Previews and Predictions for the Week 5 MWC Games.

Mountain West
Air Force | BYU | Colorado State | New Mexico
San Diego State | TCU | UNLV | Utah | Wyoming

MWest Fearless Predictions Sept. 1 | Sept. 8 | Sept. 15 | Sept. 22 
Oct. 6 | Oct. 13 | Oct. 20 | Oct. 27 | Nov. 3 | Nov. 10 | Nov. 17 | Nov. 24

How are the picks so far? SU: 23-7 ... ATS: 11-15-1

Mountain West Fearless Predictions, Week Five, Part 2

Mountain West Game of the Week

BYU (2-2) at New Mexico (3-1) 8:30 PM CSTV  
Why to Watch: With TCU struggling, and Utah is playing Jekyll-and-Hyde ball, all of a sudden, BYU vs. New Mexico could determine the Mountain West title. BYU, winners of nine straight in league play, got past the shootout loss to Tulsa to thump Air Force, while the Lobos are on a three-game winning streak, highlighted by a win over Arizona two weeks ago. Expect footballs to be flying everywhere, since both teams are bombing away effectively, and neither is doing much in the way of defending the pass. As good as New Mexico has been in recent years, this could be one of the program’s biggest wins under head coach Rocky Long.
Why BYU Might Win: Look no further than under center, where sophomore Max Hall has been excellent in place of John Beck, completing 62.4% of his throws for 1,509 yards. In last week’s win, he had 293 yards on 23-of-33 passing and two scores, and has proven to be a good leader who comes up with key throws when needed. Defensively, the Cougars should be able to stop New Mexico star back Rodney Ferguson, allowing just 95 rushing yards per game so far.
Why New Mexico Might Win: The Lobos have a balanced attack that blends Ferguson’s runs with Donovan Porterie’s passing accuracy, and they should be able to mix things up against the Cougars as long as the air attack is working. Like BYU, the Lobos have pop on offense, a killer run defense, and have been explosive at stretches. New Mexico has also fashioned a plus-six turnover ratio, a good indication of its ability to take care of the ball.
Who to Watch: Ferguson finished last year with three straight 100-yard games, giving him four for the year, and has picked right up this season, hitting the century mark in three of the Lobos’ games. His fourth effort was a near-miss (94). A 6-0, 229-pounder with a good blend of speed and power, he can handle a heavy workload and still stay fresh late in the game. To keep Hall and the BYU offense off the field, he’ll have to be stellar.
What Will Happen: The Lobos will get their licks in, but BYU showed what it could defensively last week and will come up with just enough late stops to get out with the tough win.
CFN Prediction: BYU 28 … New Mexico 23 ... Line: BYU -5.5 
Must See Rating: (5 Ken Burns' The War - 1 The Big Bang Theory) ... 3.5

Mountain West Saturday, Sept. 29

Air Force (3-1) at Navy (2-2)  1:00 PM CSTV
Why to Watch: While it doesn't have the fierceness of Army-Navy, Air Force-Navy is still a great yearly battle between brothers in arms, and it's often been far, far more entertaining a game than the more celebrated service academy battle at the end of the year. Navy has won the last four games between the two by seven, three, three and three points, but this is Air Force's best chance to win in the last few years, thanks to an improved offense and surprisingly rock-solid defense. A player in the Mountain West with a 2-1 conference start, the Falcons could use a little momentum after getting blasted 31-6 by BYU. Navy's schedule eases up in a big way in about three weeks, but after struggling to beat Duke, and losing to Ball State in overtime, it needs this win over Air Force to keep bowl hopes alive.
Why Air Force Might Win: The normal Navy formula of running the ball, controlling the clock, and getting its defense off the field isn't working, mainly because the defense isn't doing much to shut down drives. Everyone's throwing on the porous Midshipman defense, including Duke's Thaddeus Lewis, who chucked it for 428 yards and four touchdowns last week. As far as a pass rush, forget it. Air Force will have all the time in the world to let a few deeper pass plays develop.
Why Navy Might Win: Can Air Force stop the run? Statistically, yes, allowing fewer than 100 yards per game, but in reality, the jury is still out. TCU didn't have top back Aaron Brown against the Falcons, Utah was in its first game after losing mobile QB Brian Johnson and top back Matt Asiata, and BYU spent its time throwing the ball, but got a 111-yard rushing day from Harvey Unga. This is the first time all year the Falcons will have to deal with a talented rushing team, and its linebackers are going to struggle from the start.
Who to Watch: What is Navy doing with its quarterback situation? Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada has been the main man all season long, and he's been decent running the ball, but his biggest mark was made as a passer against Duke, completing 11 of 16 passes for 217 yards and a touchdown with an interception. Even so, it was Jarod Bryant who sparked the offense in the comeback win, running for 69 yards in a limited role. While head coach Paul Johnson isn't going to rotate the two, but if there are any struggles at all, Bryant will get off the bench in a hurry.
What Will Happen: Navy's offense will do its usual thing, cranking out 350 yards on the ground, but the defense won't be able to handle the attempted balance of Air Force. The Falcons will get 200 passing yards on the way to its first win in the series since a 48-7 victory in 2002.
CFN Prediction: Air Force 31 ... Navy 23 ... Line: Navy -3
Must See Rating: (5 Ken Burns' The War - 1 The Big Bang Theory) ... 2.5

Utah State (0-4) at Utah (1-3)  3:00 PM
Why to Watch: Throw out the record books when these two rivals meet. Fine, so it’s not Auburn – Alabama, but it’s hard fought, and considering the lousy starts to the season for both teams, each is desperately looking for the win. The Utes consider themselves more refined than their Aggie brethren, and their Mountain West pedigree is superior to that of USU’s WAC affiliation. Add in that the teams are a combined 1-7 and starving for a victory, and the two teams will come in very, very hungry.
Why Utah State Might Win: The Utah run defense has been non-existent for long stretches, and now the Aggies have a rushing threat in redshirt freshman Derrvin Speight, who emerged last week in the loss to San Jose State after playing a minor role the first three weeks. He should provide a spark to possibly open thing up for QB Leon Jackson, who’s been accurate, but not all that effective early on. On the other side of the ball, the State defense should get a break if the Ute offense stays on its inconsistent downswing.
Why Utah Might Win: The Utes are expecting a big boost from the full-time return of QB Brian Johnson, who separated his shoulder in the opener against Oregon State and didn’t return until the second half of last week’s loss to UNLV. The Utes have the ability to be explosive on offense, as their 44-6 win over UCLA proved, and now it should be more consistent. Utah State isn’t scoring much, so if Johnson can lead the way to two early touchdowns, it’s probably over.
Who to Watch: The Utah medical staff wanted Johnson to get another full week off, but once the Utes fell behind UNLV, coach Kyle Whittingham decided to return his main man to the lineup. Whittingham said Johnson was “80 percent” last week and expects him to be at 90 this week. The hope is to get up early, get Johnson out, and get Tommy Grady back in. There might not be a sense of desperation to get points early, but no one on the Utes would complain if this got ugly right off the bat.
What Will Happen: As long as the Aggie return game is limited, the Utes should win without breathing hard.
CFN Prediction: Utah 37 … Utah State 14 ... Line: Utah -20 
Must See Rating: (5 Ken Burns' The War - 1 The Big Bang Theory) ... 1.5

Mountain West Fearless Predictions, Week Five, Part 2